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Where is model railroading headed? Locked

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Posted by BRAKIE on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 8:54 AM

Another good exposer for model railroading is you tube..There is thousands of model train videos plus Bachmann's videos explaining how to use their E-Z DCC system.

IMHO the hobby's exposer to the general public hasn't been better.

Larry

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Posted by EMD.Don on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 9:48 AM

BRAKIE

Another good exposer for model railroading is you tube..There is thousands of model train videos plus Bachmann's videos explaining how to use their E-Z DCC system.

IMHO the hobby's exposer to the general public hasn't been better.

Couldn't agree more with regards YouTube. I have watched people install DCC decoders using decoders and locomotives that I am planing to use, program their NCE Power Cabs (the system I use), lay and ballast track, and give reviews of locomotives/rolling stock/ etc (heck I stumbled on a review of Bachmanns HO DCC & Sound Santa Fe F7A...liked it and then bought it!). It's a great resource in my humble opinion and bound to get more and more use. 

Happy Modeling!

Don.

"Ladies and gentlemen, I have some good news and some bad news. The bad news is that both engines have failed, and we will be stuck here for some time. The good news is that you decided to take the train and not fly."

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Posted by Redvdub1 on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 11:48 AM

I am going on 75 and have been actively interested in the hobby since I was about 10.  I remain optimistic about the future of the hobby having heard numerous predictions of its demise since I was 10.  Costs may seem high today compared to when "we" were young but when you adjust for the passage of time not so much.  And the quality today is overall incredibly better than it was just ten years ago.  Command control has really perked up the interest in model railroading nad made layout building incredibly easier (for the larger layouts). 

Train shows and clubs are the heartbeat of the hobby today.  LHS's are indeed few and far between.  You will note that the ones that have survived have kept up with the technology and used the internet to their advantage.  Our local club (the Olde Newburgh Model RR Club-albeit in Walden, NY) does at least 8 (and usually more) shows a year with our modular layouts and our experience has been that when one show "drops out" others take their place.  Our club has a home layout and encourages junior members by a "no dues" policy (their parent must be a member) and mentoring the juniors on meeting night so that they feel included and welcome...as we try to do with any new members.  We currently have 5 active junior members and as many have come and gone in the past 4 years.  I feel clubs, both those with home layouts and modular only clubs) are the key to getting "juniors" involved in the hobby and I see a lot of juniors at shows with modular clubs...so I feel the future is going to be solid...my 2 cents worth. 

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Posted by Voyager on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 5:07 PM

No one has provided any "hard" evidence of the  alleged decline of young people in the model railroad hobby. But let us assume it is true, given the various anecdotal comments that have been made in this discussion. In itself that trend doesn't equate with a decline of  those engaged in the hobby. It may just mean that people take up the hobby later in life than was the case decades ago.  And because the older segment of the U.S. population will be growing over the next two generations,  those involved in the hobby may also grow.
Keep in mind that the first baby boomer born in America turned 65 on Jan. 1, 2011,  creating a wave of 79 million baby boomers who will be retiring over the next 20 years. About 8,000  people will turn 65 every day over the next five years, and they will live longer than their predecessors due to improved health care and more active lives. So the share of the population over 65 will rise after this decade, from 13 percent now to 20 percent in 2050 and 23 percent by 2100.
Also, the redistribution of wealth in this country over the past generation has seen a much greater proportion going to baby boomers--with a proportionate decrease among the younger population. As a result, the growing older segment of the population is also a relatively richer segment than in the past. Households headed by someone over 65 today have about 40% more net worth than those of 1984 (adjusted for inflation), whereas the wealth of households headed by younger adults has declined. Households headed by adults younger than 35 have about 68% less wealth than households of their same-aged counterparts had in 1984.
If, as many have claimed, model railroaders are now dominated by the post 65 baby boomers,  then the hobby  could benefit financially  from the involvement of the richest, most rapidly growing segment of the population.  That should sustain it quite well over the next generation or so.  And by then today's young will be much older and perhaps drawn into the hobby--albeit with less to spend on it than current hobbyists have.
Frank
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Posted by richhotrain on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 5:51 PM

Voyager

No one has provided any "hard" evidence of the  alleged decline of young people in the model railroad hobby. But let us assume it is true, given the various anecdotal comments that have been made in this discussion. In itself that trend doesn't equate with a decline of  those engaged in the hobby. It may just mean that people take up the hobby later in life than was the case decades ago.  And because the older segment of the U.S. population will be growing over the next two generations,  those involved in the hobby may also grow.
 
Keep in mind that the first baby boomer born in America turned 65 on Jan. 1, 2011,  creating a wave of 79 million baby boomers who will be retiring over the next 20 years.
 
If, as many have claimed, model railroaders are now dominated by the post 65 baby boomers,  then the hobby  could benefit financially  from the involvement of the richest, most rapidly growing segment of the population.  That should sustain it quite well over the next generation or so. 
 
And by then today's young will be much older and perhaps drawn into the hobby--albeit with less to spend on it than current hobbyists have.
 

 
Frank,
 
While I do not have empirical data to support this assertion, I believe that most model railroaders born in the 1940s or 1950s and even into the 1960s had an electric train set, Lionel or American Flyer, as a kid.  If that is true, then the retiring Baby Boomers may well have had an electric train set as a kid and probably are already into model railroading as an adult or else there is little reason to think that they will suddenly take up the hobby as they approach age 70.  Even if they do, they will die off in the next 15 to 20 years or so.
 
So, the future of model railroading as a hobby is much more dependent on those kids born in the 1970s and 1980s and even into the 1990s when most kids did not receive electric train sets for Christmas.  I gotta believe that fewer of those kids, as adults today, participate actively in the model railroad hobby.
 
Fast forward to kids born since the turn of the century, the year 2000 and beyond, and very, very few of them are into model railroading.
 
Rich

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Posted by -E-C-Mills on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 8:51 PM

I highly doubt model railroading will ever die (just like all model building, cars, boats, planes).  Decline but not die.  However, there are a number of challenges facing model railaroading.  A major thing I suspect is people are more mobile these days.  So, people may avoid collecting a bunch of stuff for all but a small layout.  Also, I dont know if people build basements any more (there are very few basements around here).  Or if they are, they are smaller or finished.

But I think where things are headed is in 3D printing.  First there will be companies that will be able to print any part you want.  You will see a new catagory on MRR:  3D printing (like the DCC catagory).  On those forums people will share results and share 3D files for new figures and machinery.  Eventually you will see home 3D printers that can print in detail.  You will be able to buy downloads to say print your own D and SL 2-6-6-0 parts and then paint and assemble (or hire that done online).

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Posted by ChessieMTNSUB on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 8:59 PM

Being a model railroader and a kid from the video game era, also working at Circuit City and GameStop from 00-11 I can say kids definitely have money (or their parents money) to spend.  When I joined the Air Force in 96 I saved to get an N64 a few games and a new BNSF C44-9W Athearn Blue box from Hobby Town.  The two N64 games cost more than the engine at $79.99 ea.  Many people forgot that Nintendo 1st party games cost that much but they did.  I do not argue the fact the hobby is changing, some may be good, some may be bad depending on opinion.  It may cost me more, but I can get more done in a shorter time frame now.  That specific engine I may had to have a whole shopping list for and spend much time building I can have already built or slightly modified and can invest that time in something else.  Costs are arguable, yes I would prefer them to be less, but heard the exact same argument when the last generation of systems came out, the current generation, and we will see on the future.  And every year I was working we beat prior year sales for a decade.  The gaming industry is changing, more online, but more people spend more money and participate in that hobby every year.  Brick and mortar hobby shops have been hit hard, some may be the reduction of hobbyists, some may of been locations that could not adapt to the changing times, and I believe much has to do with the internet.  I hear people complain all the time about lack of places to buy books, cd's, mom and pop shops... yet buy on Amazon the whole time.  Every facet of shopping has changed, this isn't the first and last.  Look at RR's in the late 60's and early 70's, with passenger planes and trucking knocking railroads into bankruptcy like crazy, I am sure at one point they could of predicted that it would be limited to nearly unit trains on very specific routes.  The industry adapted and is in the most part profitable once again.  Sorry didn't mean this to go on so long, but yes I am sick of paying $10 to eat lunch at work too!

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Posted by ChessieMTNSUB on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 9:06 PM

Less not forget kids now days can be exposed to railroading at younger ages.  Brio, Thomas the Tank Engines, and lego train toys.  Thomas the Tank Engine and Chuggington tv programs.  And almost every channel shows a RR commercial now a days.  My dad did have O scale trains which I saw at Christmas and I saw my grandparents layout when I went to MA and FL once a year, but that was my exposure to trains until about 10-11 years old.  So not having the influence is doubtful as an excuse, but I believe they are playing with them younger and re visiting the hobby (seriously, or more active) once they get settled after college and grounded with a job.  Similar to what they have always done, just the timeframes are offset.  Just my 2 cents.

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Posted by NorthWest on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 9:10 PM

richhotrain
So, the future of model railroading as a hobby is much more dependent on those kids born in the 1970s and 1980s and even into the 1990s when most kids did not receive electric train sets for Christmas.  I gotta believe that fewer of those kids, as adults today, participate actively in the model railroad hobby.
 
Fast forward to kids born since the turn of the century, the year 2000 and beyond, and very, very few of them are into model railroading.

True, electric train sets were less common, but those in 90's had a new toy: the Thomas wooden railway. While I agree with you that the hobby will likely lose membership, Thomas is bringing at least some kids onboard. Just look at the crowds for the "Day out with Thomas" excursions on many tourist lines.

Also, Whittle offers an in between step: http://shop.woodentrain.com/main.sc

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Posted by wjstix on Thursday, June 13, 2013 8:21 AM

I think exposure to real trains is very important. My grandson wasn't interested in my layout until he got to see UP 3985 a few years ago. Since then he's loves running trains, and watches Chuggington, Thomas, and Choo-choo Bob. He also has the wooden trains and likes doing things with them.

Stix
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Posted by zstripe on Thursday, June 13, 2013 9:35 AM

There go's that word again,,,''Exposure'', I said that in the very beginning,,,Plays a key part in life,,not only in hobbies,,,,but almost everything that we learn in life,,,,,,,walking,talking,,,you name it....

Cheers,

Frank

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Posted by GP-9_Man11786 on Thursday, June 13, 2013 9:44 AM

zstripe

There go's that word again,,,''Exposure'', I said that in the very beginning,,,Plays a key part in life,,not only in hobbies,,,,but almost everything that we learn in life,,,,,,,walking,talking,,,you name it....

Cheers,

Frank

On the topic of exposure there's one point we've all missed. Commuter Rail is making a comeback. I grew up Long Island. Most people commuted into New York City on the Long Island Rail Road. If you wanted to go into the city for fun, you'd take the old LI double R. Me and most of my friends rode the train on a fairly regular basis. I'm sure this got more than a few interested in trains.

In the 1990s when I was growing up most cities didn't have commuter rail. It was pretty much limited to New York, Chicago and San Francisco. But since then cities like Los Angeles, Nashville, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, Seattle, Miami and Dallas-Fort Worth have built commuter rail systems. Other cities are build light rail systems. This puts trains back into people's daily lives and gives kids more opportunities to not only see but ride trains. In terms of exposure, a chance to take a train ride can't be beaten.

Modeling the Pennsylvania Railroad in N Scale.

www.prr-nscale.blogspot.com 

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Posted by Train Modeler on Thursday, June 13, 2013 10:59 AM

Just saw this, didn't read the posts.  Great question after the problems I've been through trying to sell off some of my Dad's stuff from his estate.   In the last few years from what all the "guys in the know" tell me the buyers of MRR equipment are shrinking--not a huge surprise--but it seems to be getting down to bone.  

Anyway, from experience a lot of it is on the current modelers to pass it down if they want to.   My son and some of his friends enjoy MRRing.   But, they were exposed and supported--he's 15.    To be more specific, I don't see the problem with the teenagers as much as their parents.   That generation seems to be more interested in other entertainment options and it cascades down.   They also don't want to spend much time building anything.

Richard

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Thursday, June 13, 2013 1:52 PM

Stayed away from this until now, and have only read a little of it.

I can't say I care where the hobby is going anymore, I'm only really interested in the model railroad above my 6 car garage. And I have most of the locos, bits, pieces, rolling stock, control system, etc, etc, etc that I need to complete it. And I'm sure whatever else I need I will come up with somewhere, some how.

But I will offer just a few thoughts:

Cost - anyone who thinks the hobby is more expensive now than any time in the past needs a course in economics - and this is not the place for me or anyone to try to teach economics - I've tried before, nobody listened.

Exposure - maybe, maybe not. I saw very few real trains as a child, and only rode a few real trains as a child. So much for that theory. I did grow up with model trains in the house - not toy trains, not LIONEL, never had a LIONEL or other tinplate/highrail type train in my life until I bought one for my son. I have no interest in highrail or toy trains today - including HO toy trains with smoke or tinny sound, or over sized details to make them "rough handling friendly".

Trends - been at this hobby 43 years, worked in this hobby as a teen and young adult - it has changed, some for the good, some not in my view. But was has happened is, it is more diverse, and attracts more different "types" of people than it did years ago. That's why it is hard to get any kind of consensus on this or any forum.

Today "modelers", who maybe should be called "hobbyist's", come in all sorts of sub set interest groups, skill levels and pocketbooks. That effects thier view of the hobby. Far too many of "us" still think everyone else with a model train views the hobby the way we do - guess what? They don't.

So I'm done now, off to build my model railroad, without sound, from a combination of RTR, shake the box, and craftsman kits. With no sound in my locos,  but working signals and CTC, wireless control, but with DC, very light on weathering, with lots of freelanced passenger cars only 72' long.

And the rest of you are welcome to go in whatever direction your skills, wallet and desires will take you.

Sheldon

 

    

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Posted by Javelina on Thursday, June 13, 2013 8:33 PM

First off, I have to say that this has been one of the most civil, entertaining threads I've read in eons. Thanks to all of you for your contributions. I've learned things.

Second, check those 2 guys out grinning into the camera a few pages ago. That's your future and it's gonna be good. Everytime I think we're going to the birds here in this crazy world,  I see a video on YouTube with some of those same young guys and gals doing wicked good stuff with CNC's, old motorcycles, steam trains and you name it. They got it handled. Really. In fact, when I think about it, only a few years ago (it seems!) that was me. Just another young punk that thought he had it figured. Some of the stuff I did, some I didn't. These folks will carry on model railroading with new ideas and new enthusiasm.

I'm 60, and what I model is based on what I've loved since I was a kid. My hero is Frank Ellison and he influences my modeling goals. But what I love about this hobby is it's diversity.

Anyway, heckava good thread, and as the Queen says "Keep calm and carry on".

Lou

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Posted by Bob Schuknecht on Friday, June 14, 2013 4:37 PM

zugmann

Did video kill the radio star?

Speaking of video, I remember when the VCR was going to be the demise of movie theaters. Many times those who try to forecast the future of an industry or activity aren't very accurate in their prognostications.

I am getting back into the hobby after being out of modeling for 22 years. What I see is a hobby that is as strong, or stronger, than it was in the 1970s and '80s when I was heavily into it before.

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Posted by Milepost 266.2 on Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:43 AM

I find all the derogatory comments about the Internet sort of funny, because I have found that the Internet has opened my mind to entirely new hobbies and interests that I would have otherwise never explored.  I'm a much better photographer thanks to the daily inspiration I get from my Flickr feed and discussions of equipment and techniques from many sources.  I can make better purchasing decisions, and find I'm spending much more than I was previously, but the results are much, much better.  I've even developed an interest in time-lapse night photography, a skill I intend to develop thanks to people with amazing talent who are willing to share not only their work but their experience.  My computer and Internet skills have helped me in my professional development as well. 

As for model railroading, when I can read about something other than the lack of blue box kits or how everything costs too much, I find modelers who are hands down the best I've even seen.  They're out there doing their thing and are not concerned with what kids are doing with their spare time or if other people will be doing this 50 years from now. 

And many of them are not spending a lot of money, either Wink

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Posted by HaroldA on Monday, June 17, 2013 7:11 AM

Let me weigh in with a few comments which are sure to irritate a few folks so I apologize in advance.

Should it go the way of all flesh there will be a number of reasons, many of which have already been mentioned.  I continue to be stunned by the ever increasing cost of even basic products.  Something as simple as plaster cloth goes up, at least around here, almost on a monthly basis.  The LHS is disappearing and, at least the one remaining here in my area does nothing to promote the hobby and the 'train guy' is so disagreeable that I refuse to deal with him anymore.  We have whole product lines that have been around for years - Floquil might be the latest - and they are gone.  Also, from time to time we have shortages of simple items like flex track.  These are just frustrations that don't seem to be apparent with other kinds of hobbies such as sports.  Younger generations, unless they have been exposed to the hobby, are more interested in Xbox 360 and PlayStation than they are in model trains.  And I recall a discussion in this forum a few months ago where some of my esteemed colleagues said they had no responsibility to introduce young people to the hobby or even have them visit home layouts.  The school systems, at least in my area, have taken over the family and if a kid is in sports, there is hardly any time left for family activities let alone a hobby that is looked as 'just something else to do.'  Many parents today over schedule their kids and, frankly, live vicariously through them and the kid has little downtime.

The reality is that the people who built the hobby - the WW2 generation and baby boomers - are dying off and we have raised a new generation of people who aren't 'joiners.'  This generation doesn't join churches, civic or fraternal organizations, service clubs, VFW posts - all of which are in decline and in my area some have closed altogether.  So in many people there is little desire on incentive to join a railroad club when there are so many other choices to be made.

We are in decline for many reasons and we as modelers also bear some of the responsibility. Will it go extinct - probably not.  Model railroading will continue for many years to come and there will always be people involved.  However, it will be become an elite hobby - much like golf - where only a few can afford the equipment and it will become one of many choices in which people can participate. 

Call this my My 2 Cents

There's never time to do it right, but always time to do it over.....

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Posted by richhotrain on Monday, June 17, 2013 7:23 AM

HaroldA

Let me weigh in with a few comments which are sure to irritate a few folks so I apologize in advance.

No need to apologize.  In my opinion, you are absolutely correct in every respect.

Rich

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Posted by soilwork on Monday, June 17, 2013 7:34 AM

I agree that things are different now then they were before. Technology and the economy changes people. I remember when you can afford to take a family a five to a ball game for cheap money, its hard to do that now. I miss the days of the drive in movie , $10 for a car load and you get to watch 2 or 3 movies. Those days are long gone. The new generation is much more influenced by what they see on tv. You don't see much about trains on television, but you see a lot of things getting blown up ect..ect...ect.. For the people who are into model railroading  I think the emphasis on detail nowadays is incredible and with DCC I see more leaning towards operations then ever before.

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Posted by Soo Line fan on Monday, June 17, 2013 7:36 AM

Higher prices by fewer companies targeted  to a shrinking customer base. A perfect business model if ever their was one. Dead

Jim

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Posted by ONR FAN on Monday, June 17, 2013 7:47 AM

You never see TV commercials advertising Model Railroad products.  This might be a way to get the young kids into the hobby.   I never even thought of model railroading as a hobby until my son came home with a copy of Model Railroader that ex forum member TA462 donated to his school. 

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Posted by b60bp on Monday, June 17, 2013 8:09 AM

Soo Line fan

Higher prices by fewer companies targeted  to a shrinking customer base. A perfect business model if ever their was one. Dead

Boy oh boy, this is the best posting so far! Not too many messages make me burst out laughing, but this one is a gem. It contains more concise wisdom than anything coming from some of the pompous "experts" that have thrown in their "expertise". Great posting!

Benny Peters

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Posted by tomcat on Monday, June 17, 2013 8:14 AM

I really believe the problem we have in getting the younger generattion intrested in modelling, we need to concentrate more on modelling things that are closer to the current generation,

EG, A layout that has more rellevant buildings, KFC, McDonalds Nightclubs ,Parks that they can relate to>

They need to see more modern day cars and trucks and things , Maybe as much we modelling on a certain era ,I think it then becomes more a history lesson for them rather than an enjoyable hobby they would like to begin themselves.

We have a large non prototypical layout , while it was constructed after considering all of the above ,We have found that the younger generation have really enjoyed our layout , We even have some young folk offer to scratch build some more MODERN day buildings to put on our layout,We have catered on our layout for people of all age groups and modellers, having your coal yard , freight houses, coal mine and a childrens interactive section as well as your modern day things.

ALL WE CAN DO IS PREY I GUESS

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Posted by sh00fly on Monday, June 17, 2013 8:42 AM

Wow SMH Confused

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Posted by IRONROOSTER on Monday, June 17, 2013 12:44 PM

This year celebrates 47 years of the hobby dying.  1966,  when A.C. Gilbert  stopped producing American Flyer, marks the Official beginning of the hobby dying. 

It is expected that the hobby will continue to die for at least another 50 years.

Laugh Laugh Laugh Laugh

Paul

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Posted by riogrande5761 on Monday, June 17, 2013 1:25 PM

IRONROOSTER

This year celebrates 47 years of the hobby dying.  1966,  when A.C. Gilbert  stopped producing American Flyer, marks the Official beginning of the hobby dying. 

It is expected that the hobby will continue to die for at least another 50 years.

Laugh Laugh Laugh Laugh

Paul

After scanning through 11 plus pages of hand wringing, I'll just say to this last post ... tooche!!!!

Rio Grande.  The Action Road  - Focus 1977-1983

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Monday, June 17, 2013 3:18 PM

Soo Line fan

Higher prices by fewer companies targeted  to a shrinking customer base. A perfect business model if ever their was one. Dead

There are no FACTS that support your statement. Prices are not high after adjusting for inflation, and there is no evidence there are fewer customers. In fact, the larger production runs needed to maintain over seas production and current pricing suggest both the opposite on both counts.

Sheldon

    

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Posted by maxman on Monday, June 17, 2013 3:49 PM

tomcat
ALL WE CAN DO IS PREY I GUESS

Did you want to re-phrase this?

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Posted by blownout cylinder on Monday, June 17, 2013 3:59 PM

maxman

tomcat
ALL WE CAN DO IS PREY I GUESS

Did you want to re-phrase this?

I think it is about time that this thread be put to rest...it has been an interesting one at that...so on that note...locked...

Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry

I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...

http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/

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