ATLANTIC CENTRALIn 40 years of building model trains, I have one brass loco and one "semi brass" loco, and both long since lost any collector value with kit bashing, plastic tenders, freelanced paint schemes, etc.
I fell over a fellow at a trainshow recently who is a local folk art dealer/collector. He told me of a great "find" he came across---turns out he found a series of small HO(?) deisels that had been superdetailed by someone around these parts----he sold them to a Toronto 'art' collector for a chunk of $$$$.
Some people will collect anything
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
rjake4454a single observation car (released by Imperial Imports) costs about $500, I can't afford that, ever. I have seen this particular car on a layout in pictures, so I can't imagine somebody buying something of that price simply to put it on display.
Sadly, its true. There are lots of people in lots of realms that drop big money on the silliest things just so they can add it to their collection.
John
I've been told by my LHS owners that brass is purchased simply to collect and display, never to run. I find that statement hard to believe. There are a few brass passenger cars that I want, but a single observation car (released by Imperial Imports) costs about $500, I can't afford that, ever. I have seen this particular car on a layout in pictures, so I can't imagine somebody buying something of that price simply to put it on display. If this is the sole purpose of buying a brass passenger car, why not just get a nice painting to hang it up on the wall? Or why not develope some art skills and draw it yourself? (Im considering doing this myself).
CAZEPHYRThe brass market today is still extremely expensive for the new and latest models from DVP, PSC and Overland. The small runs of the new brass has priced it out of the reach of many buyers.
Another point to note here is "can afford" vs "willing to afford". I can afford a Benz, I choose to drive a Ford.
Brass has never attracted my interest. I have a fairly large yearly hobby budget, I choose not to spend large percentages of it on cars with three digit prices or locos with four digit prices. No matter what it's a model of, or how well it's done, they are just not worth that to me.
So now that nice looking and nice running locos can be bought for $300 and less, I have lots of them. In the past I still only spent $200 or $300 but had to build/super detail each loco, which took time and limited the size of the fleet.
So brass prices did not decline because of me, and I know more than a few modelers who feel the same way. And, I do know some with fair amounts of brass, but they bought it to run, not "invest" in.
In 40 years of building model trains, I have one brass loco and one "semi brass" loco, and both long since lost any collector value with kit bashing, plastic tenders, freelanced paint schemes, etc.
Sheldon
riogrande5761Buying anything for "collector" value is always a gamble and money (like the stock market) can be gained or lost. I've noticed over the years that various items touted to be collectors items and said to be worth far more than original purchase price often spiked at some point and then sank. My sister collected Hallmark ornaments and the very first Star Trek Enterprise sold for $20, and later was going on Ebay for $200, then it sank way way down again to not much more than MRSP. Brass trains were once considered to be highly collectable, but many have lost their value and people would be hard pressed now to get what they originally sold for 20 or 30 years ago. The California Zephyr brass made by Kumata in the 1980's is an example. I bought an 11 car train, not for collector value but to have a CZ/RGZ to operate. I sold the set for nearly half of what I paid since the BLI cars killed the value of the brass CZ. Personally, I am staying away from any collector crap - it isn't worth the risk.
You have a valid and good point about collecting brass trains. The market price of the brass previously imported Zephyr cars was hurt when the BLI cars showed up. Many of the brass only items up to about the year 2000 has lost value since plastic and die cast metal models are now available for many items. Only a few buyers are wanting those older items at this time, which softens the price. It is best to retain those items if you have the extra money and sell them off later when someone is looking for that particular item or set of cars in your case.
The brass market today is still extremely expensive for the new and latest models from DVP, PSC and Overland. The small runs of the new brass has priced it out of the reach of many buyers.
CZ
riogrande5761Buying anything for "collector" value is always a gamble and money (like the stock market) can be gained or lost. I've noticed over the years that various items touted to be collectors items and said to be worth far more than original purchase price often spiked at some point and then sank. My sister collected Hallmark ornaments and the very first Star Trek Enterprise sold for $20, and later was going on Ebay for $200, then it sank way way down again to not much more than MRSP.
I think Ebay, and more generally the Internet itself, has been the principle downfall of the so-called collector's market. Ebay, for whatever else you think of it, is the great leveler of the playing field. Whereas previously you had lots of little localized pockets of value-- a "plum pudding" model, a slight parody on JJ Thompson... -- that allowed a bit of arbitrage between markets. Then ebay came along and allowed everyone to compare valuations and set up, essentially, a "commodities" type market for pretty much anything you can think up to sell. And that, over time, has homogonized the market for pretty much everything.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL cacoleAnd then Con-Cor produced a second run of the model, which destroyed any collector value the original may have had. While I am a big believer that manufacturers should have fair pricing policies that protect their dealers, I actually hope few if any model trains actually have "collector value". Collector value implies its worth more than when it was new, or that it at least keeps pace with inflation over a long period of time. I want modeling to be as accessible and affordable as possible. I believe that is the hobby's best hope for the future. I don't expect any of my purchases to be "investments", other than my investment in having fun and sharing my modeling with others. Sheldon
cacoleAnd then Con-Cor produced a second run of the model, which destroyed any collector value the original may have had.
While I am a big believer that manufacturers should have fair pricing policies that protect their dealers, I actually hope few if any model trains actually have "collector value".
Collector value implies its worth more than when it was new, or that it at least keeps pace with inflation over a long period of time.
I want modeling to be as accessible and affordable as possible. I believe that is the hobby's best hope for the future.
I don't expect any of my purchases to be "investments", other than my investment in having fun and sharing my modeling with others.
That's the thing about the "collector" as such. It is not just him or her that is the problem but the implied cash value that accrues around that "collection" s/he had. Once the collector who has the cashflow gets into any area---SHOOOM!! ---up goes the price. Secondary markets--that is--the market that collectors tend to fall into are rife with this up/down thing. As it is the collector car auctions are feeling the pinch already in terms of loss of sales. That market, like any other, is very fickle. If all mfg is geared to that market it'll be a rather sharp drop in sales for them.
Myself, I'd say that, yes, it can be expensive, if one buys everything all at once. But as you say, it should be accessible at some point. If one wants an industry to survive it'll have to place sustainability into the business equation.
cacole Several years ago a member of our local HO scale club pre-ordered a Con-Cor Burlington Zephyr train because it was claimed that it would be a very limited production. He waited something like six months before receiving the model, and paid over $400 for it. One week later there were five on the shelf at an Ace Hardware in Tucson priced at 1/3 what he had paid. And then Con-Cor produced a second run of the model, which destroyed any collector value the original may have had.
Several years ago a member of our local HO scale club pre-ordered a Con-Cor Burlington Zephyr train because it was claimed that it would be a very limited production. He waited something like six months before receiving the model, and paid over $400 for it.
One week later there were five on the shelf at an Ace Hardware in Tucson priced at 1/3 what he had paid.
And then Con-Cor produced a second run of the model, which destroyed any collector value the original may have had.
Ouch,
Buying anything for "collector" value is always a gamble and money (like the stock market) can be gained or lost. I've noticed over the years that various items touted to be collectors items and said to be worth far more than original purchase price often spiked at some point and then sank. My sister collected Hallmark ornaments and the very first Star Trek Enterprise sold for $20, and later was going on Ebay for $200, then it sank way way down again to not much more than MRSP. Brass trains were once considered to be highly collectable, but many have lost their value and people would be hard pressed now to get what they originally sold for 20 or 30 years ago. The California Zephyr brass made by Kumata in the 1980's is an example. I bought an 11 car train, not for collector value but to have a CZ/RGZ to operate. I sold the set for nearly half of what I paid since the BLI cars killed the value of the brass CZ. Personally, I am staying away from any collector crap - it isn't worth the risk.
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
Texas Zepher CAZEPHYRAny thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it??? Just typical. Actually I thought it was originally supposed to be the end of 2008, because I was still buying whatever Walthers set was being produced and couldn't afford yet another set. Then of course there is the GN S2 that was supposed to be early 2006. I cancelled all my pre-orders long ago. Just my luck when they finally got around to running it I would have already spent the money on something else.
CAZEPHYRAny thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it???
Actually I thought it was originally supposed to be the end of 2008, because I was still buying whatever Walthers set was being produced and couldn't afford yet another set. Then of course there is the GN S2 that was supposed to be early 2006.
I cancelled all my pre-orders long ago. Just my luck when they finally got around to running it I would have already spent the money on something else.
I agree on the cancellation of the pre-orders. The advertised prices don't hold up either after two years so having reservations for two to three years does not make sense to me. It might be importage to the individual companies for their orders, but BLI blew that about five years ago when they started the blowout sale and left dealers with stock on their shelves that cost more than BLI sold them directly to us.
The train has been on the schedule for a long time, but recently at a show, they displayed some preproduction cars from the new tooling. The orginal advertisement were brass cars so we were excited to see some preproduction cars.
The fact that Athearn did drop out of the complete train deal should give BLI a better market. The Athearn cars were the cars from the 1939 train and were not in direct competition to BLI. The BLI ad seems to have a limited set of cars if they make it to market.
blownout cylinder Heeheehee KATO seems to be doing something here---why is HO, which is SUPPOSED to be more popular having this nonsense going on?
Heeheehee
KATO seems to be doing something here---why is HO, which is SUPPOSED to be more popular having this nonsense going on?
I can answer that question. HO is more popular in the United States where many more modelers have the real estate to build an HO layout. The rest of the world, not so. KATO caters mainly to "the rest of the world" so N scale is their bread and butter, so I've been told. If this is true, then USA N-scalers benefit from KATO's N-scale focus.
Once upon a time when I was younger and I could view N-scale up close and personal and could enjoy it more visually, I was into it. But N-scale simply didn't offer the rolling stock I needed to model the Rio Grande from the 1970's and onward. Only in the last 10 years have we seen the CZ in N, tunnel motors and other items. I'm too vested in HO now to ever think of looking back and I can't afford two scales right now. The N-scale CZ has been mighty tempting I must say, but there are still some features of N that turn me off, and one is the big gap at the ends of the cars needed to accomodate the oversize draft gear. Otherwise N has improved a good deal from its 1970's toy like appearance - broken only by Micro Trains.
blownout cylinder andrechapelon CAZEPHYR It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD. Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it??? CZ Well, it's a good argument for switching to N scale since Kato has already released the complete train and a choice of motive power for it. <Lou Costello> "I'm a baaaaaad boy" </Lou Costello> Andre Heeheehee KATO seems to be doing something here---why is HO, which is SUPPOSED to be more popular having this nonsense going on?
andrechapelon CAZEPHYR It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD. Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it??? CZ Well, it's a good argument for switching to N scale since Kato has already released the complete train and a choice of motive power for it. <Lou Costello> "I'm a baaaaaad boy" </Lou Costello> Andre
CAZEPHYR It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD. Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it??? CZ
It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD.
Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it???
Well, it's a good argument for switching to N scale since Kato has already released the complete train and a choice of motive power for it.
<Lou Costello> "I'm a baaaaaad boy" </Lou Costello>
Andre
That's easy to answer - TOO many companies making the same stuff. GS4's from how many sources, Big Boy's, K4's, etc, etc. We even see it with freight and passenger cars - or, if you can even believe it, traction? How many new PCC cars are about to show up?
In the good old days Athearn and Roundhouse politely did not make the same "stuff" - business was booming for both.
riogrande5761 I think its because of competition and perceived reduction in sales due to this that BLI is putting it off, or may cancel it, depending on economic factors. There are other manufacturers offering Daylight passenger cars right? Athearn and MTH? They are producing Daylight passenger cars and that may be enough to siphon off much of the demand and pre-orders. I love my BLI CZ cars but that is the only thing I ever bought from them or anticipate ever buying. But in the current world economy, two manufacturers can't get away with making too similar a product is my guess. Maybe a couple years ago but now?
I think its because of competition and perceived reduction in sales due to this that BLI is putting it off, or may cancel it, depending on economic factors. There are other manufacturers offering Daylight passenger cars right? Athearn and MTH?
They are producing Daylight passenger cars and that may be enough to siphon off much of the demand and pre-orders. I love my BLI CZ cars but that is the only thing I ever bought from them or anticipate ever buying. But in the current world economy, two manufacturers can't get away with making too similar a product is my guess. Maybe a couple years ago but now?
Athearn cancelled their run of Daylight cars about a year ago but completed the single coach for the Cascade train and now have announced the Daylight version of the coach. MTH still has a partial Daylight train on their list but the BLI was a complete train for the 1941 era on their first release and the 1953 train as their second release.
BLI just received their second run of the California Zephyr train recently and my thought is that train did not sell out since it is the second run. I did purchase the first run CZ train but the demand for a complete second run would have been lower and they probably have too much stock on hand. I would certainly hope they can find the money to bring to market the 1953 Daylight train.
duckdogger After one of my acquaintance's experience with Walthers, it would be my bet that when manufacturers announce pre-orders, they are really testing the demand waters, so to speak.
After one of my acquaintance's experience with Walthers, it would be my bet that when manufacturers announce pre-orders, they are really testing the demand waters, so to speak.
I've had similar experience with Bachmann's G scale products -- at least twice in the past couple of years they have advertised pre-orders of a model only to never produce it, possibly because they never got enough pre-orders.
I'll admit that I'm a sports ignoramous, so the draft analogy is lost on me. I don't even believe in evolution, but there does seem to be a "natural selection" going on in the business world and the hobby world as time goes by. Boy, look at ExactRail, they are going like gang busters but BLI, while they have produced a lot of stuff, they seem to be doing it rather haltingly, and floating trial balloons etc.
As for the Daylight passenger cars, it may simply be down to there being only so much market out there during the current recession and they are too leary of putting out what my be percieved to be a "duplicate product" and losing out financially. I realize they may or may not be putting out exactly the same passenger cars, but ... it may be the same wallets opening up for either/or of BLI, MTH, Athearn, what have you. Whoever gets a product on the shelves first may get more dollars and the others a lot fewer dollars. Thats my edumacated guess!
Every body wants a winner. Sports, business, entertainment. You can buy, what at least 4 versions of an SD40-2? Similar duplicate modern wide cab GE, SW1500, F-7s. Yet no SDP40F, SD-18, whatever.
I think we need an HO model draft. Similar to the NFL version. Lowest gross sales gets first pick of the model they will make. 2 year license before the unit returns to the pool.
We'll have a locomotive, freight and passenger car divisions. You can trade or sell your spot but you cannot make a specific model unless you own it.
And we modelers submit the list of choices and minimum standards of quality, details, etc. and no proprietary sound systems!
CAZEPHYR The days of having many extra models on the shelf seem to be over like you said, the Turbines were gone fast. This was a model that had only been made in brass and die cast metal (Lionel ) up to the time the 51 series turbine was offered by Athearn. The Veranda will probably sell just as well.
Selling out a first run at the manufacturer and selling out at the dealer level are two different things. I buy lots of Athearn and never have any problem finding a dealer somewhere with what I want, even years after it says it's out on their web site or at Horizon.
So that shows they are making more than the pre orders by quite a bit.
I get their newsletter and the re-runs of previous stuff are continious. Sure their are gaps in availability, but there always have been. There is a difference between batch production and this preorder non sense.
As for BLI, a few of everything always make the closeout bin, a big mistake if you ask me. The last run of heavy and light Mikados sold out fast, it all sells out fast once they lower the prices to Bachmann levels.
And based on my experiances with the nine pieces I have, BLI quality is no better, or even not as good as Bachmann - and I frankly think the quality from Bachmann as been just fine in the last few years.
Again, you are all welcome to keep pre-ordering, I will wait for the closeouts since we know that is their business model. Athearn never does that because they know they will make more later and want the second, third and fourth batches to have market "value". Bachmann may have super deep discounts right off the bat, but they too don't "dump" product. - there is a difference. Examine the prices of the others and you will see what I mean.
Left Coast RailI don't think Athearn is doing much overproduction either. I believe their Gas Turbine locomotive was delivered to stores sometime last spring and were sold out by the end of summer. The same goes for the Genesis Southern Pacific F7s in bloody nose and black widow that have come out the last couple of years. I read the letter from Rapido that Atlantic Central refered to a few posts up on this thread also. Like it or not, we live in an era where if it sits on the shelf for more than a couple of months, the bean counters get nervous. If there is something you really want you should probably make the leap when it comes out.
I read the letter from Rapido that Atlantic Central refered to a few posts up on this thread also. Like it or not, we live in an era where if it sits on the shelf for more than a couple of months, the bean counters get nervous. If there is something you really want you should probably make the leap when it comes out.
The days of having many extra models on the shelf seem to be over like you said, the Turbines were gone fast. This was a model that had only been made in brass and die cast metal (Lionel ) up to the time the 51 series turbine was offered by Athearn. The Veranda will probably sell just as well.
After one of my acquaintance's experience with Walthers, it would be my bet that when manufacturers announce pre-orders, they are really testing the demand waters, so to speak. Making a pre-production sample is one level of expense - cheap mold dies, single cavity, etc. Pulling the lever for full production with multi-cavity dies is another.
In the scenario where deliveries slide back to TBD or TBA, I would say serious financial obstacles have surfaced and the viability of the run is in question. And it could be a related factor as mentioned, that the Chinese connection went belly up.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Athearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while "advertised" a little differently then in the past, is really not much different than it was 30, 40 or even 50 years ago in this hobby.
Athearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while "advertised" a little differently then in the past, is really not much different than it was 30, 40 or even 50 years ago in this hobby.
Yikes, looks like the Paragon 2 Reading T1 got pushed back to TBD also...
BLI, the company with the finest selection of unproduced models in the industry. Whatever happened to the "if you build it, they will come approach" which is how it was done for most of the history of the hobby. If you can make a good product and sell it at a reasonable price, you don't have to worry about a logjam of inventory. Consumers will buy what you build. I've never pre-ordered an item and I never will. If you don't make it first, I won't buy it. I'm sure a lot of other people feel the same way I do which is why BLI is losing market share to MTH and other competitors. They've force me to buy my Dreyfus Hudson from MTH even though I've been wanting for years to buy it from BLI. I got tired of waiting. Sorry, but I can't can't run pre-ordered locos on my layout.
Several Chinese hobby manufacturers have gone bankrupt -- maybe one of them was the company that was to produce the BLI models ----
tstage ATLANTIC CENTRALAthearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while "advertised" a little differently then in the past, is really not much different than it was 30, 40 or even 50 years ago inthis hobby. Small correction, Sheldon. Atlas has gone the pre-order route, too. Check their home page. Tom
ATLANTIC CENTRALAthearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while "advertised" a little differently then in the past, is really not much different than it was 30, 40 or even 50 years ago inthis hobby.
Small correction, Sheldon. Atlas has gone the pre-order route, too. Check their home page.
Tom
OK, small correction there, BUT they still sell lots of stuff, track, buildings, signal systems, etc, etc, the old fashioned way. Atlas locos and rolling stock is not high on my radar because so much of it is too new for my era. And, at least up to now, they have always over run their preorders by a fair precentage and put that product out there.
AND, I have seen a fair amount of Atlas locos/rolling stock on store shelves up to now, I guess that may change now.