Food for though-
Call me nuts but I think DCC is the compact disc of control systems. CD's were a huge leap from vinyl discs when they first came out but look how quickly they became obsolete. I think DCC and DC will become obsolete in the wake of the huge technological leap that micro batteries are making. I think within 10-15 years, wiring will go the way of the dodo and our locos will all be battery powered with radio control. As someone familiar with the advances in portable battery power, I'm going to live with DC for the time being. I'm REALLY looking forward to not having to wire my tracks other than for a signalling system.
I posted this thought over at Atlas and I thought I'd see if anyone else has an opinion about this.
Cheers,
Dave
Since in 15 years or less I will be dead, I hope, (don't like nursing homes) I won't have to worry. However, I use DCC in the basement and battery power radio control on my G gauge outdoors and I can see a lot of obstacles that will have to be overcome, especially with the batteries, before it will be practical for HO and N. But, never say never, I just won't have to worry about it.
Bob
I'm going to hold out for the day when you can put a thing that looks like a hairband on your head and control your trains with thought.
By then you should also be able to wear a monacle so that you can be looking out from inside the cab, too.
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
Phoebe VetI'm going to hold out for the day when you can put a thing that looks like a hairband on your head and control your trains with thought.
It'd be all inside the head, man. Virtual reality---won't need no trains.
There were some types of headbands that have been tried before----Someone, I think it was Dr Michael Persinger from Lakehead University(?), did this sort of thing in the 1980's. Had some interesting results--and there is, at least an announcement of such, an "interactive device" that you supposedly were able to manipulate some operations of your computer with.
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
Vermont&Maine Food for though- Call me nuts but I think DCC is the compact disc of control systems. CD's were a huge leap from vinyl discs when they first came out but look how quickly they became obsolete. I think DCC and DC will become obsolete in the wake of the huge technological leap that micro batteries are making. I think within 10-15 years, wiring will go the way of the dodo and our locos will all be battery powered with radio control. As someone familiar with the advances in portable battery power, I'm going to live with DC for the time being. I'm REALLY looking forward to not having to wire my tracks other than for a signalling system. I posted this thought over at Atlas and I thought I'd see if anyone else has an opinion about this. Cheers, Dave
DCC will probably become obsolete (remember 8-track stereo?) but DC will just keep plugging along. There are always going to be people who prefer the inexpensive solution and neither need nor want the (ever-changing) latest and greatest in whoop-de-do power and control systems.
My anchor is firmly set in the hard bottom of analog DC. If other people want to fill their tenders with batteries and their boilers with electronics, that's their problem.
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)
Vermont&Maine...I think within 10-15 years, wiring will go the way of the dodo and our locos will all be battery powered with radio control...
Well, you may be right, but I can neither hold my breath that long, nor do I want to be without my current trains management system for that span of time. Meanwhile, watch this....[reaches for paddle, dials up a loco, dials in speed, and we both marvel at the lumbering steamer slowly straining against the trailing tonnage, and then accelerating up the main with chuffs any everything...].
It's the bird in the hand, and I find it to be reliable and fun.
If we do get to the point where batteries can safely be used in enclosed plastic for extended periods doing the work we need them to do, I'd be all over it...just as I was CD's when they came out.
-Crandell
selectorIf we do get to the point where batteries can safely be used in enclosed plastic for extended periods doing the work we need them to do, I'd be all over it...just as I was CD's when they came out.
AAACCH!! I am still on my vinyl stuff so there HAAAARRRUUUUMMPH!!!!---
There was a program a couple weeks ago on TV. Vinyl records are making a strong stand with audiophiles. I sort of miss the old pop and ticks. CDs were touted to replace albums and cassettes and they were supposed to be cheaper than either albums and cassettes. Lies lies lies. Ho much are these high tech batteries going to cost?
I believe these High tech batteries already exist. I saw an electric powered forklift at a NASA facility with a concrete block where the battery was supposed to be. There was a plastic box with the cables attached with the quick coupler the size of 10 gallon aquarium that was powering it.
Pete
I pray every day I break even, Cause I can really use the money!
I started with nothing and still have most of it left!
Barry, I still have most of mine, too...wouldn't part with them. I even bought a new Sony turntable three years ago for a song.
Vermont&MaineI think DCC and DC will become obsolete in the wake of the huge technological leap that micro batteries are making. I think within 10-15 years, wiring will go the way of the dodo and our locos will all be battery powered with radio control. As someone familiar with the advances in portable battery power, I'm going to live with DC for the time being.
You are aware of the fact that you don't really need to come up with any contrived excuses about having saved (a couple of decades down the line) money on skipping a generation of control systems ?
If DC works good enough for you, by all means stay with DC. The layout police will not break down your door at 3 am to haul you away for not using DCC
As for the basic concept you are sketching - the key problem is space in the locomotives. We already have trouble fitting in a small chip to take a signal off the track power, without having to replace too much weight with electronics.
Fitting in a battery unit, some kind of charger unit (since it is a drag to pull batteries to recharge them), a wireless receiver, and some kind of new decoder (which probably would have been some kind of "wireless DCC" chip anyways) is not necessarily something that will be easier to do than to fit in than fitting in a DCC decoder is today.
But we will see a few decades down the line.
In the meantime, I am not going to hold my breath for another 20-25% of my expected (if I am lucky) adult life span to wait for the perfect control system.
I can always make more money to replace things that get too badly outdated (assuming my layout will even last a decade before it is replaced), but time is a non-renewable resource for all humans.
Grin, Stein
selector Barry, I still have most of mine, too...wouldn't part with them. I even bought a new Sony turntable three years ago for a song. -Crandell
I found a Thorens at a Goodwill in town recently---got it all fixed up and now am listening to some Rimsky-Korsakov
A few random thoughts:
Direct radio is allready the control of choice in large scale, by battery or track power. If Aristo Craft continues to develope smaller and better recievers at low enough cost, direct radio, with track power may have a strong future.
DCC will no doubt be around a while, and the next better idea may well use some of its technology and be cross compatable.
The best vinyl on the best turntable is still better than any digital sound. I still have 1500 vinyl records and most are in mint condition, only carefully played on my equipment. But I do have about 800 Compact discs as well, they are a good second, way better than ANY home use magnetic tape ever was. I don't have an Ipod.
DC, simple or complex, does have a certain staying power based on what I see. DC could actually make a comeback if someone puts the research and developement into plug and play computerized block control. Several great minds are working in that area, but lack resources for rapid developement and marketing.
I expect most new people will tend to go DCC, but I think "conversion" by established modelers has slowed or even virtually stopped.
So I will stay DC, with the Aristo Radio throttles unless something truely revolutionary happens. I'm in my 50's, and have a large collection of DC locos. In fact, for the layout and operational goals I have, I don't expect to be buying too many more locos, and I'm not a "replacer" of things not boken. Decoders of any kind are not really a change I would look forward to.
My layout and modeling goals where not revised just because someone invented DCC or the sound decoder. I heard onboard sound in the eighties and was unimpressed, I'm still unimpressed in the small scales. In my view, sound is DCC's biggest selling point, but again, we all have different goals for our modeling.
Sheldon
I am not exactly sure how long DCC has been around but think about how far control systems have come in lets say the past 10 years. Leaps and bounds is a very fair assessment resulting in today's dcc. In the next 10 years I think you may see vast improvements in technology such as size, functions, etc. They will be able to do more and possibly for even less money. Compare it to computers the fastest growing technology known to man, think about what you had 10 years a go and how far it has come but the basics are all pretty much the same, sure there is a lot of super technology out there but for most of us we have the same old pc.just a little better version of what we used to have. I think the same is going to be said for dcc it will get better but pretty much be the same. It's not going to become a museum piece anytime soon.
Stein, I agreed with every word until you got to:
steinjr(assuming my layout will even last a decade before it is replaced)
I can't even imagine starting a layout if I didn't think it would last more than a decade.
I've seen DCC enter the slot car market, and it seems to be approaching a market-share plateau. I believe the same holds true for model railroading; the inherent simplicity of DC and its good operating characteristics means it will stay around for a good long while. And, you don't have to worry about the next wave of development making your big-buck investment in today's technology obsolete tomorrow.
However, I do believe that advances in electric motor technology will free up more space for batteries and chips inside locomotives. I also believe we will see more and more wireless control, and more and more involvement of the remote processing capacity of a base station CPU (your obsolete laptop).
Due to the need to recharge batteries, refueling stops will become part of an evening's operations. Recharging could occur through the rails, or through a jack or plug tethered into your water tank. Diesels will carry extra batteries in B units.
There will be plenty of NMRA-sanctioned DCC for sale on E-bay, or whatever takes its place, as technological development outstrips attempts to regulate and enhance cross-manufacturer compatibilty. Chaotic market conditions will eventually defeat any centralized attempts to maintain cross-manufacturer standards and compatibility. This will further fragment the hobby into Balkanized pockets of standard practice.
Guys,I've seen a lot of things come and go from 8 track tape payers to VCRs.I seen phones go from big and bulky rotary dial to slim and trim cellular...I have seen many control systems come and go that was consider state of the art.
DCC will pass..Its a matter of time before a young whiz kid finds a better way to run trains.Battery perhaps.Another control system light years above DCC perhaps.
It will be interesting..
I can see it now..
XXXX vs.DCC/DC..
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
He who puts off upgrading because something better will come along soon will never buy anything because there will ALWAYS be something better just over the horizon.
Have you upgraded to HDTV yet? Mitsubishi and Samsung are both now making 3D ready TVs, and several manufacturers have prototypes of even higher resolution than 1080P.
20 years ago $50,000 professional digital cameras were 6 megapixel. Now you can get a cell phone with a 6 megapixel camera built in.
If you like DCC, jump in. If you don't, then stay with what you have.
Phoebe Vet He who puts off upgrading because something better will come along soon will never buy anything because there will ALWAYS be something better just over the horizon. Have you upgraded to HDTV yet? Mitsubishi and Samsung are both now making 3D ready TVs, and several manufacturers have prototypes of even higher resolution than 1080P. 20 years ago $50,000 professional digital cameras were 6 megapixel. Now you can get a cell phone with a 6 megapixel camera built in. If you like DCC, jump in. If you don't, then stay with what you have.
Even being deeply intrenched in DC myself, I agree with this completely. There are lots of reasons to go with DCC and lots of reasons to stay DC, but waiting for what will come next is not one of them.
My digital camera is 6 megapixel, but my cell phone still lacks a camera, thank goodness.
I have allways been a "tech" type person, but years ago I rejected the idea of technology just for technology's sake. If I really need it, if it's really better AND I need or want it's version of better, fine, but just because "they" invent something does not mean I need it, want it, or want to take the time to mess with it.
Whole generations of computers have come and gone while I used my "old" one, but when I need a new one, I buy the latest and greatest so its not obsolete so quick.
And I still have turntables and VCR's that are used on a regular basis.
I have use DCC and found it to be ok..
However,I don't jump on every whiz band electrical gimmick that comes along..I never owned a 8 track I don't own a flat screen HD TV even tho' my 32" quit working-I still have a 22" TV I can watch and there's no hurry to buy a new TV since I watch about 20 hours of TV a week.My old DVD/VCR combo still works so,I have no need to rush out and buy a Blu-Ray player..
I guess its what ever makes you happy and to tell the truth DCC is not really needed on a small (10') 1 horse ISL unless the modeler wants DCC to control 1 locomotive.
betamaxThere are people out there still waiting for that mid-engine Corvette that is going into production "next year". Next year was like 30 years ago? If you are always waiting for the next best thing, you miss the enjoyment today. They even talked about digital television for 20 years...
Exactly. I bought my DCC system 8 years ago. If it takes another 10-15 years to come up with a new system and another 2-3 years to perfect it, that will mean I will get 20-25 years of use out of my DCC before I can think about replacing it. And the benefit of using DCC will be have been worth the cost amortised over the 25 years.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
I didn't get the memo that CDs were obsolete. I've had a 60 disc player since the mid 1990s and it keeps trucking along and still sounds great. I'm still buying CDs and I still see lots of infomercials selling all kinds of music on CDs.
I predicted several years ago that onboard power with radio control would be the next big thing but I don't see it obsoleting DCC. I don't see it as an either/or choice. Onboard power with radio control is just going to change the way the loco receives power and gets its marching orders. The DCC standards could remain as is. If battery technology advances to the point where powering locos becomes feasible, it seems like the next logical progression. I already have a wireless throttle. Having onboard power and sending instructions to the decoder via radio would make for a completely wireless connection between throttle and loco and I would love to see that. I hate wires. I have no land line to my house. I have satellite TV and internet connection. Why not a wireless model railroad. It would save me having to keep my track clean.
By the time DCC is obsolete, physical layouts may also be a thing of the past. You can already use computer programs to plan a layout, and there are the train simulator programs. Pretty soon you will be able to design a railroad and take a virtual reality cab trip! Then you will just have to wait until the Star Trek holo-decks are invented!
John
If everybody is thinking alike, then nobody is really thinking.
http://photobucket.com/tandarailroad/
Considering how long it took DCC to get to where it is today, I doubt some other system will replace it in my lifetime. I expect the next step to be NMRA compliant DCC decoders equipped to receive radio signals like the Aristocraft system (maybe the first ones will come from Aristocraft). Then you can use a fixed control panel, tethered throttles, wireless throttle to command station, and/or wireless throttle to locomotive - all at the same time if desired.
Battery technology is getting better, but I don't think the price will be competitive with the system of distributing current through the rails not to mention the hassle of recharging. The dirty rails issue has some workable solutions (search for gleaming, cleaning cars, etc.) for the smaller scales, HO, N, and Z; and doesn't seem to be much of an issue for larger in door scales S and O. I suspect G indoors doesn't have much trouble either. I am sure some will do batteries even in Z, just not very many.
Eventually, I think we'll see an improved DCC. The smart guys will make sure it works with the old stuff too.
And through it all, I expect to see DC chugging along for many. It's a lower cost, easy to use system that has and will continue to work just fine for many folks. And Aristocraft has a wireless system for them as well if they want it.
It all just keeps getting better and better.
Enjoy
Paul
LOL. Best response of them all!
Is being the CD of train control a bad thing? It seems to me CDs have been the standard for 25 years, and they don't seem to be anywhere near dead yet. If one was to decide in 1985 that they were going to wait for the next big thing in music distribution, it seems they might have missed quite a bit! Sure, there will be something new. I think it will probably be at least partly backward compatible, as I think that DCC is pretty well thought out. While there has certainy been a lot of progress in the technologies that will go into the next system, there are some model railroad specific challenges. And in as small a market as MRR is, it is going to be a while before the resources needed to address those challenges come into play.
I'd have to say that not going to DCC because you want to wait for what comes next is not a really smart idea. Assuming you want to run a railroad today, you have pretty much two choices. They both work, and both have different advantages for different situation. And the cost difference isn't always as huge as it first appears, if you compare apples to apples. So look at your wants and needs, and pick the method that suits you best.
Jeff But it's a dry heat!
I use DC. If DCC is like CDs, then I've still got the equivalent to stone knives and bear skins. And I guess that means DCS is like DVDs?
Now for the next question. Which model railroad control system is the equivalent to Blue-Ray?
_________________________________________________________________
davidmbedard Now, DCS is the HD DVD of the video market. David B
Now, DCS is the HD DVD of the video market.
David B
Could've been Beta------------
I don't like replacing batteries. I'll stick with DC and DCC.
Eventually I'm going back to live steam. There isn't a computer simulation in the world (or any electric railroading) that can touch the sounds, smells, heat, and grit of live steam.