Paul3, Ive learned to use what I can get to in this hobby. Because of this, I stay away from junk. I dont care about the cost and I dont care if one offers or the other does not.
I pick on the Blueline because I am full DCC and recently converted my Computer to control the engines with programming or remote control. Blueline had issues which are not suitable for full DCC out of the box.
I was not this angry 20 years ago. The products availible then versus that availible today has gone through such change and improvement... wonders never cease. Oh yes there is always IHC engines if you like.
I bought a botchmann Standard GS4 for alot of money once in a mall I think the thing was 50 dollars retail in the those days. Late 70's early 80s.. not sure now. It lasted a month and eventually ended up in the trash when I learned that no amount of home workbench effort can overcome shoddy product.
I dont mind BLI wanting to make money. I emphasize that Pre-ordering will not get orders from me to BLI. I will wait until the product is produced and availible this year. preferably after MR reviews or videos it such as happened with the MTH Triplex.
Taking the Triplex as example, my understanding of that engine has gone up quite a bit and I am much appreciative now of that model than initially. MTH has defended the model, answered my questions and MR has a good video up in addition to a good review. All this before the model has hit the street.
Take BLI. The original motto of the company was "Silence No More" Now all I see is Silence with occasional noises designed to appease the muttering mob waiting on engines.
At the end of the day pulling power, all wheel pickup and good QSI dcc decoders matter to me. I would buy something and make it work for 5-15 years or more into the future as I dont expect to find anymore of these limited runs, out of productions or future oppertunities outside of ebay to get additional copies of the engine.
I have already stated my position and there it stays. I dont expect to have to clarify any further on this topic because such exercise is counter productive and wasteful.
George In Midcoast Maine, 'bout halfway up the Rockland branch
The obvious: waiting 2 years or more on a preorder is frustrating. By preorder mechanism the manufacturers are trying to lessen the risk of producing a given model. The less risk the more likely they'll be in business to serve up even more models in the future.
Conjecture: BLI and its peer manufacturers may be facing a manufacturing bottle neck overseas. If so, the quick and dirty solution would be to find some other manufacturing facility with a not so well known manufacturing record. If the product quality were to suffer just to bring models to market quicker we'd all be upset about that. In the scheme of things model train manufacturing is not a mass market and one of the downsides of being a niche manufacturing effort is low priority relative to consumer goods that have a much greater production run with attendant greater profit.
As others have pointed out in this thread we're enjoying greater selection of models, much better quality, more "gimmicks" per model and fair MSRP(with pricing enhanced by eBay and mail order at the expense of our LHS) for what we're getting. JMHO but I'm sure the management of the BLI's of the world are as frustrated as their consumers with missed launch dates.
Jon
Rapido Trains indicated that the old factory in China was too small... I hope that They will come here and support or correct this sentence.
If that is true, factories in China must be burning 24/7 full tilt as ours did during the war years.
The image of China as a true economic superpower with the millions of manpower availible at beck and call is a frightening one to me. They think nothing of deploying masses of people like ants to bury a problem and make it manageable.
It makes the United States economically weak with what little factory work such as CAT in PA that still has work to do.
At the end of the day, I will say that I am optimistic about BLI because they decided to include the QSI technology into thier PRR 2-10-0 I1sa with the 8 axle tender. Ive already indicated a willingness to order this engine within days or weeks of it hitting the street. But not preordering.
Charlie wrote: I play the Brass game. I pre-ordered an Overland ATSF Budd Full Dome 60 in 05 and finally got my model in 07. The model was worth the wait. So for those of you who want to gripe go ahead but, remember this, you aren't really doing this hobby much justice. If you don't want to wait, don't pre-order the model. Charlie
I play the Brass game. I pre-ordered an Overland ATSF Budd Full Dome 60 in 05 and finally got my model in 07. The model was worth the wait. So for those of you who want to gripe go ahead but, remember this, you aren't really doing this hobby much justice. If you don't want to wait, don't pre-order the model.
Charlie
I ordered a Coach Yard Santa Fe division superintendent's business car in '05, and am still waiting. The wait for brass is extremely painful, but it has always been that way it seems. At least The Coach Yard didn't announce a particular release date, and then change it several times. When I order brass I go into it knowing that it will show up when it shows up.
Here is what the problem with preorders is, PCM announces a hopper model in 2003; I commit to $1000.00 plus in preorders, PCM announces a PRR M1a/b that I commit to 2 models for $600.00. in the same year. I'm on the hook for $1600.00. All have been delayed. How do you budget for that? I was interested in the PA locomotives too. Another 600 bucks.
So WHAT happens if they make these models in the same year? What happens if I have preorders from other manufacturers that come in on time in the same year? Which commitments do I Honor? My word is my promise, I do not back out because it is inconvienient or not profitable. Who gets hurt? Who gets stiffed with product that can lay round for months tying up capital for someone? I have backed out on BLI/PCM/FDT due to their broken promises and the fact that I will not expose my family to hardship just because a manufacturer continues to let a project slip that I am interested in.
In the short term preorders help the manufacturer, but when the system is abused we get to the point where another manufacturer is hurt by commitments to vaporware. How many projects are impacted by those delays? To one manufacturer that is delaying, it means nothing. To the hobbyist, it means that the other things that we desire may be delayed or never brought to the table.
If we hold the manufacturers feet to the fire, we win in the short term and all of the manufacturers win by not chasing thier tails with deadend projects. If they do not see the committment, they abandon projects. Hobbyists win by not devoting time to tracking deadend preorders and manufacturers can devote resources tied up in deadend projects to viable product. In the long run no one is devoting time or money to deadends. That is a win-win situation.
Bob
navygunner,How do you budget for that? It's very easy. If you can't afford it, don't pre-order it. If you can afford it, save the money first, then buy it.
For example, when BLI announced the I-5, I started saving for it. I would tuck away a little here and there and I did not buy other things I would normally (I also stayed away from eBay and kept my wallet in my pocket during train shows). I kept the cash in a safe place separate from other expenses. When I got to the $400 it was supposed to cost, I left the money alone. The I-5 was 8 months late...and my cash stayed right where it was. When it finally rolled in (at $359, mind you), I pulled out the money and got the I-5. What is so difficult to understand here?
With your situation, if you are putting your family in "hardship" because of your hobby, then I have no sympathy for you. That you would even possibly allow your hobby spending or pre-ordering to negatively effect your loved ones just makes me shake my head. It's real simple. If you don't have the money, don't pre-order the models. Don't blame BLI or the other manufacturers for your spending habits.
The problem with "dead end" projects, BTW, is that they don't know what is going to be a "dead end" until they offer it as a pre-order.
Paul A. Cutler III************Weather Or No Go New Haven************
Paul3,
I understand the message that you are sending and wholey agree that saving for commitments is a good thing. When I preorder the money is set aside when the commitment is made. My family nor creditors go without because of my hobby spending. I live within my hobby budget.
That being said, I feel that PCM in particular is abusing the preorder concept by baiting the hobbyist with continually slipping release dates. I preordered all 8 of the N&W N Scale H2a hopper sets when they were first announced. I had considered several sets of the PRR sets as fillers. That was almost 5 years ago. The delays went through the gamut of changing factories to the preorder-o-meter. The same thing happened with the PRR M1a/b. The most recent issue of changing the dates from 08 Feb to Feb 09 just last week. How long is a reasonable time to wait and tie up funds that could be better spent in the hobby or invested elsewhere?
How many years does a project have to hang out there before it becomes a deadend project? Kato and Athearn have had production delays due to quality and quantity issues, but seem to have been able to communicate with the customers that there was an issue that required all to go back to the factory in the case of the Challenger, and that there were an unexpectedly high amount of preorders in the case of the GS4. Walthers has delayed the release of there latest version of the class Y3 mallet until June, but I still have faith in the company and the possibility of getting my preorder made.
The one fact that should be noted is that all of those folks doing the CAD work, those who track these projects all get paid. Those funds come from somewhere, and in this case it comes from the customers who are getting product. Anyone buying and receiving from BLI/PCM/FDT are footing the bill for the stuff thay's not getting made, but still being offered.
Maybe after 5 years, the company should perhaps cut it's losses and move on. I cancelled my orders and used the money for other projects 18 months or so ago. In the meantime, I still monitor these items of interest as I still want the product, just have lost faith in their going forward. If they happen and my budget will support the purchases, great, but I can't let my money stagnate on merchandise that has been repeatedly pushed back.
ndbprr wrote:Let's see should I preorder a 2009 Chevy? Should I preorder a PC for 2009? Should I preorder a new lawnmower? Should I preorder anything. Nope Can't really come up with a reason or any other manufactured product that requires you to preorder anything. You make it. I see it first hand I might by it and I might not. Prefer to buy it a hobby shop but if he won't or can't stock it I can live without it.
Those items above don't require or even ask for pre-orders because they're produced in great quantities. There will be millions of 2009 Chevies (of various models) produced. Chances are, you can get one if you really want one.
Model railroad production runs are a lot smaller (by orders of magnitude). The industry is tiny compared to automobiles, PC's, lawn mowers, etc. People can't seem to grasp the small size of the industry relative to the size of other industries.
Andre
andrechapelon wrote: ndbprr wrote:Let's see should I preorder a 2009 Chevy? Should I preorder a PC for 2009? Should I preorder a new lawnmower? Should I preorder anything. Nope Can't really come up with a reason or any other manufactured product that requires you to preorder anything. You make it. I see it first hand I might by it and I might not. Prefer to buy it a hobby shop but if he won't or can't stock it I can live without it.Those items above don't require or even ask for pre-orders because they're produced in great quantities. There will be millions of 2009 Chevies (of various models) produced. Chances are, you can get one if you really want one.Model railroad production runs are a lot smaller (by orders of magnitude). The industry is tiny compared to automobiles, PC's, lawn mowers, etc. People can't seem to grasp the small size of the industry relative to the size of other industries. Andre
Andre,
I think maybe the problem is that the majority of people have never owned or managed a SMALL business.
I own a small powder coating business in a small town, and while I don't operate with pre-orders as such, the principles are the same. If you ring me and tell me that you will be leaving a job next week and I don't have the colour in stock, I don't rush out and buy it. A lot can happen in a week and that "definite" order may be cancelled, and that might leave me with a few hundred bucks worth of powder that I might not use for some time ( or ever ! ) Some of you are going " so what ? it's just a few hundred bucks " What if that happens 2 or 3 times a month ? (probably about right as I do on average 100 or so jobs a month ) Then if I've got that powder sitting there, that's 800 to 1000 bucks worth of stock doing nothing x 12 and suddenly I've got a major cash flow problem ! And believe me when I say I can't afford 9/12 to 12 grand sitting on the shelf doing nothing ! I'd be down to Centrelink ( your social security ) real quick along with the four people I employ !
While I realise that the model manufacturers are not as small as I am, they are a lot closer to me than GM, Dell and Victa ( Lawn mowers Downunder ) ! Imagine if BLI built a run of X model and only a few sold, leaving a few thousand sitting on the warehouse shelf ? Bye Bye BLI ! I'd rather wait a couple of years for something, than be sitting here lamenting the loss of a great model manufacturer ! Just my worth.
Cheers,
Warren
I haven't either, Waz, but I was in I.T. and worked with very closely with my company's financial types, so I learned quite a bit about the cost of running a business. My wife and I also run our personal financial lives in a more or less business-like manner. I am constantly amazed at the number of people who don't understand that business who don't take in more than they spend go out of business.
I worked for a very large company (over $10 billion USD in revenue last year and 12,000) and I have a pretty good idea just how that business compares to some outfit like Walthers, which had about 140-150 employees in 2004 according to this: http://www.wisbusiness.com/index.iml?Article=21272
Revenue per employe for my former employer amounts to about $833,333/employee/year. Assuming Walthers could generate that kind of revenue/employee/year, it would generate about $125,000,000 in revenue. However, the company I worked for manufactured semi-conductor manufacturing equipment for companies like Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor, IBM, etc. Walthers manufactures and distributes what many outside the hobby would regard as toys. My guess as to Walther's revenue would be in the $50 - 60 million range at best. Hard to tell since Walthers is privately held and doesn't have to report financials the way a publicly traded company does.
I do understand the business dilemma you're in. You have to have the customer's job in hand before you can commit to buying the materials you need. I would expect, however, that if you have regular customers who are good people with whom to do busines (i.e. understand that they're not the only customers you have, pay on time, refer new customers to you, and are generally willing to work out problems with you) that you'd be more inclined to take the risk and order the material.
We have a friend who owns a small, seasonal ice cream business (she's in Maine). Her business is all about turnover. The faster she can go through the tubs of ice cream, the better her business is. She serves larger portions than most, so customers get good value for money. About a week prior to closing for the winter, she has a 1/2 off sale on her remaining stock and on the last day, what's left is free.
Regards,
ndbprr wrote:Sorry guys but I am in a very small business of three people. My services are either worth your money or not. BLI has a far larger market than I will ever have. Biggest cause of business failures is underfunding and not having a clear picure of sales or expenses. Test balloons to see what the interest is before committing is a poor method of marketing. Some day I hope to be in the model railroad supply business. I will be able to tell you how many units I can sell before committing to producing. I will also be able to tell you what my break even point is. It isn't rocket science.
Does your business require extensive design and tooling prior to having an item for sale? IOW, is there significant financial risk in tooling up for a new item in the hopes that it will sell well? Anybody remember the Edsel? Unless you're manufacturing a rather complex piece of technology to sell, you don't really understand what the MR manufacturers are facing.
It appears to me that the hobby manufacturers have been moving from a build to stock to a more or less build to order type of model. BLI/PCM also appears to me to have a firm grasp of their business (at least as seen from the outside). Since none of us, AFAIK, are privy to BLI's internal workings, we're only speculating as to issues they're facing.
I worked for a build to order company, BTW. A big one. Revenue in billions, customer base could be represented by 3 digits.
ndbprr,As Andre said, a Chevy, a PC, and a lawnmower are made in many magnitudes greater than any model railroading product. Just think of all the car dealers in this country, all the PC websites, and all the home & garden stores vs. how many railroad hobby shops are around. How you can even compare this hobby to one of the largest companies in existance (GM), one of the largest industries in existance (PC's), and one of the industries where just about everyone outside a city owns one (a lawnmower) is simply beyond me. Quite frankly, there is no comparison.
BLI's market may be bigger than your own market for your own business, but they still aren't on the level of GM. Through the rumor mill, I've heard that the minimum order is 5000 for a modern quality HO model made in China. GM sold approx. 9,370,000 vehicles wordwide last year (wikipedia - take it for what it's worth). That's about around 25,000 vehicles per day., or over 1000 vehicles per hour. IOW, GM would make 5000 units by lunchtime every single day...something that BLI would make with one model run.
To put a finer point on it, you would have to have only 5 customers in your own business to BLI making two 5000-run models using the GM-vs.-BLI comparison. Is your business that small?
navygunner,If you live within your hobby budget, then what's the big deal with pre-orders? The way you brought the whole "I will not expose my family to hardship just because a manufacturer continues to let a project slip that I am interested in," into the discussion is immeterial. Whether the project slips or not has nothing to do with affording it in the first place (again, as long as one doesn't have to pay ahead of actual production).
About the long delays...well, that's business. I'm sure BLI won't mind all that much if you canceled whenever you want to. After all, it's not costing a penny for either you or them if you are or are not on the pre-order list. For me, personally, it's a matter of how much do I want what they are offering? If they offer something I really, really want (something I've wanted since I was a kid...like that I-5), I'm willing to wait a very long time...5 years wouldn't bother me for something like that. But if it was something that I only had a mild interest in, and something else came out that I wanted more, I'd cancel my pre-order in a heartbeat. It's all about priorities. I still fail to see anything to get all upset about.
As far as CAD work goes, I doubt any of these companies shell out a dime until they get a very good idea that the project will be made. It probably explains some of the delays if they didn't start designing it until after the pre-orders were high enough.
BTW, the office folks and the like are most likely being paid by selling Blueline equipment since the tooling has probably already been paid for in previous runs.
I appologize for the unintended "theatrics".
I have no problem with preorders. I understand that there has to be a gage of interest before capitol is expended. I also understand that Most N Scale manufacturers of plastic and diecast do not carry projects forward for 5 years without a production run. Either the interest is there or it isn't. The difference in volumn of product has to be close to proportional to the population of the participants. N Scale is in the minority to HO Scale by all of the suposition that I see. I would expect that the order numbers would break down in a similar manner; diluted by model and road name selection. From this a basic concept, a business model can be concieved and business decisions made accordingly. Applying these concepts across markets can get a company in trouble. Not being able or willing to modify a business model as concepts and market conditions become clearer is not the best way to proceed.
Am I commited to this project? Not any more. Is the product desirable to me? Yes, I committed to 48 units that were projected to cost 40% more than any other similar product. When the M3/M4 Yellowstone was offered in brass, I jumped on the band wagon. This was a model that I had wanted for more than 2 decades. I understand the difference between the brass and plastic markets and the difference between HO and N Scale.
What's 5 years? I'm pushing 50. Chances are that I have more years behind me than what is in front of me. I've got more productive years in my hobby behind me than in front of me too. In less than 20 years I will expierience retirement and a reduction in hobby funds. I will gain the time to really enjoy the fruits of a lifetime.
I am not upset with PCM for not going forward. I am upset with them for not saying that they did not have enough preorders to go forward. Instead we were told that they had to change factories due to quality issues. Since they had the factory time, why no preproduction models? If factory time was reserved, CAD/CAM had occurred. If it was contracted out. the contractor gets paid upon acceptance of the design. 5 years later the PCM website still sports an HO Scale model photo in the M1a/b and H2a hopper offering for N Scale. To me this adds up to a lie.
If the Blue Line is funding all of this non productive activity, wouldn't that investment be better spent on viable projects? The E7 second run has been delayed several times also and has proven tooling. The last delay was for 12 months. There comes a point where a dead end is reached, PCM has gotten there in N Scale.
The size of a business is irrelevant. The object is to make money. 5 units sold a day or 5000 units a day? Are you turning a profit? Are you looking forward with product developement? Do you meet the needs/desires of the target market? Do you counteract the external forces on your target market? Preorders can be used as a fair assessment of market forces, but must be analyzed, not used as a bank account.
The so called new strategy is about the same as the old BLI/PCM strategy except they are trying to entice buyers to wait for the BLI model instead of purchasing the MTH model. When MTH announced the GS4, BLI responded four days later with the GS4 that had been promised for over two years. The old TBD was on the GS4 for two years and now they can make it when MTH announces the same GS4 and several variations of the different era models.
It all sound like playing catch up but unlike the PRR K4 which both BLI and MTH announced at the same time, MTH seems to be out in the lead in production on this one. It will be interesting to see if BLI really makes the model since both the GS4 from MTH and an early version of the 1937 train from Athearn will be out long before BLI gets their late models to the market.
The old adage of first come first served seems to favor MTH and Athearn on this train. If BLI does continue and produce the model months after MTH, I would tend to believe most of them will be sold on the blow out sales just to unload the production. I will purchase several if they are marked down to prices like the die cast Big Boys.
BLI/PCM would so much better today if they announced the die cast metal AC12 that was announced several years ago and just skip the GS4 for now. Many of us would purchase the AC12 in several numbers like we did the Big Boy and be happy to run them on the Owl and #52. My Intermountain AC12 looks nice but is not layout worthy. Three AC12's are required for each reefer train or regular freight over the Hill out of Roseville.
Just a related note. There is a major difference between the BLI GS4 and the MTH. Although MTH quality is very high, they are not really DCC compatible. They have very few CVs and do not support advance consisting, speed adjustment, and sound control configuration in CVs. They have about 20 plus function keys to turn things on and off. Many functions are controlled by F keys above 12 that most DCC system do not support. MTH is determined to change the industry over to DCS. To really have control of MTH HO trains, you need to buy a DCS system. If DCC configuration and features are not a concern, they are a great choice. But if you want a truely DCC compatible engine, it will have to be the BLI. MTH is not for me. I sold my MTH K4 and bought a BLI that was DCC player.
It seems to me that a lot of the credit cards used for preorders would expire during the wait.
Probably serves them right for dawdling!
Well gosh it seems so many people are very grumpy about pre-ordering a engine. I do not mind pre-ordering as long as I get one. My layout is changing and expanding all the time. So if I pre-order for a good price then I can sell or trade the item if I do not like it and move on. I do not see the point in spending money on brass. I have to equipment and the means to run the BLI/PCM trains and have no issues. They also have really good customer service. This is a hobby and usually it is an item extra money is spent on. So really if I plan to have the money by the release date then I plan ahead and save for that engine. If it is late then I have the funds ready. I waited for the Blueline big boy and had the club members screaming over it when I ran it on the 13x24 layout. They thought it was brass. I even pulled over 30 cars without an issue. I see nothing second hand about a $250 diecast big boy. If you gotta have hobby items NOW then you must not have much else going on. I watch the forums and the dealer listings and so far they have been some what correct on the BLI releases and item ship dates. So people around here would complain if they got hung with a new rope.
I personally like to order the engine as if my railroad has ordered an engine from the manufacturer and when it arrives it will be a add on to the layout. I will never need any hobby item NOW. What I need NOW are the bills to be paid and my paycheck in the bank every payday....... What I need NOW is the love from friends and family. .....What I needs NOW is for my freedom and lifestyle to be stable. Everything else is pure GRAVY. Just my