I have to agree that Direct Radio is going to cut into the DCC market. The advantage of Direct Radio, like the NWSL S-CAB, is that it can use any track power or inboard battery. Adding Direct Radio does not require modification of existing layout wiring, and unlike DCC, does not require modification of all locomotives.
Systems like RailPro offer telemetry that makes consisting easy. This improved technology will also make existing DCC systems obsolete. This is not to say that existing DCC layouts will be converted, since Direct Radio can be used on a DCC layout.
As noted, most remaining DC users are unlikely to convert to DCC, however, they could use some Direct Radio locomotives with inboard battery power to extend operations on the DC layout. Again, Direct Radio can be introduced piece by piece without having to convert everything.
While all of this is being debated, MRC has been making decoders that will operate on DC, DCC, or Direct Radio. These have been installed in some Athearn steam locomotives, and are available for the Walthers GP-15. A radio remote is included with these units.
As a final note, once inboard battery power has been experienced, it is difficult to go back to any track power system.
Stix,
I think the transition time is going to be a bit longer, say 20 years, to get over 90% DCC. Certainly serious newcomers to the hobby are probably close to that level, once you subtract the numbers of train set buyers who still get a DC pack most of the time. It's when those Xmas sets become mostly DCC that will finally push serious newcomers almost exclusively to DCC and I don't see that coming for awhile. If you want to go roundy round, then that market could stay DC for quite awhile yet because the economics of that market are quite a bit different than the main model RR market most of here ate in.
Trains are not taxes, different motivations at work for adoption of newer technology, I'd think. That DC train will run just as well in 20 years, while the gubmint might take it all wrong if you sent them your tax return from 2010 in 2030. A model train that's 20 years older is the object of substantial sentiment and nostalgia. No one feels that way about their taxes.
And with a little cleaning up, that old DC loco will still go reliably so long as you have a powerpack. For a lot of people, that's enough and there's nothing wrong with that. It's going to take a little longer for that demographic to pass, I suspect.
Mike Lehman
Urbana, IL
As to the second part, the future, the number of people using DCC will grow. I'd guess in 20 years it will be 80-20 or 90-10 DCC vs DC. I know from working in taxes, 10 years ago only 10% or so of tax returns were filed electronically. 2010 was I think the first year where e-filings were more than paper filings. In time it will be 90-10 the other way, with paper being rare. It's just a matter of age. Older people who grew up with DC (or paper returns) are more likely to insist on sticking with it, while new kids joining the hobby are already computer literate and feel comfortable with things like DCC.
I think Sheldon has summed it up pretty well, if not too exactly in terms of #s, because as he noted I don't think anyone really knows %s, etc other than very roughly.
One other factor is that DCC may be in somewhat wider use among those who actually operate regularly. A lot of older users of DC are probably those who had rather smaller layouts, although I'm sure this is far from a rule. It's just that those who do tend to invest in expensive DCC systems do so in part because of the belief that it will reduce the time spent wiring larger layouts versus DC, which isn't necessarily so.
In the end, the only people that the numbers really matter to are those seeking to introduce new products in either DC or DCC. Maybe for DC it's more like decisions about continuing to produce products that may no longer be sustainable in terms of sales. That may have been why the MRC ControlMaster 20 that was discussed in another thread went out of production; MRC didn't think they could sell enough, fast enough, to contract for another run of them? However, I think there's will always be a place for DC and even if some familiar items are no longer available new, the rather bullet-proof and repairable nature of DC powerpacks ensures there will always be lots of used DC hardware available out there.
Santa Fe all the way!I was wondering what you folks thought the percentage of layouts are DCC vs DC today and what those percentages may be, say,5-10 years from now?
Well nobody really knows, but based on the evidence it is still about 50-50. And that is likely only among HO and N scale modelers who consider themselves fairly "serious" hobbyists.
Why? A poll taken on this forum not too long ago was about 55% DCC, 45% DC. We can expect that those using a forum are more likely to be more "tech friendly" or more advanced in the hobby, giving DCC an advantage in a poll on here.
Most of the major loco manufacturers are still offering DC locos. Given the extra costs this entails, the DC market must be strong and they must feel or know from experience that DC modelers will not pay for electronics they do not want or need. And they don't seem to be changing their mind about this marketing approach.
Bachmann has gone basically all DCC - BUT, their decoders are dual mode and inexpensive, adding little cost for DC users. And most of their locos are easily "back converted" for DC throttles that do not like dual mode decoders.
Their new B&O EM-1 comes only with a basic decoder - you buy the sound board separate. This shows clearly that they see a big market for non sound, non DCC users. And this "formula" may be seen on more models in the future.
Even MTH gave in and started offering DC versions.
I do suspect most new modelers will start out with DCC or convert to it very early on.
I do also suspect from conversations with shop owners and others in the industry and hobby that I have known a long time (I use to work in this industry), that conversion to DCC by established modelers has slowed to near zero - That is most of the current DC users are very likely to stay with DC for the rest of their hobby life.
Also, there are other technologies out there competing with DCC, especially in the scales larger than HO and N - and in those scales DCC has no clear cut advantage or market strong hold.
In three rail O scale/gauge there are several systems, same in large scale, that are very popular and generally preferred over DCC.
New direct radio systems are out there even for HO and direct radio in several forms rules in large scale.
DCC will remain the primary control system for new HO and N scale modelers for a while - but I doubt it will ever become universal across all the scales or ever completely replace DC or other hybrid systems.
Sheldon
I have no idea, and would look askance at any guesstimates, including my own. There are literally tens of thousands out there still using DC or AC, and probably less than half those numbers using digital command systems in all scales. If you hold me down and make me cough up a best guess, about 25% (or less) are using DCC who play or 'seriously' model trains today.
Crandell