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What % DCC vs DC today and 5-10 years from now??

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Posted by gregc on Tuesday, January 22, 2013 7:03 AM

randy

what kind of information would be transmitted back from the loco to the controller?

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Posted by wjstix on Tuesday, January 22, 2013 7:36 AM

I'm not sure the number of DC engines being sold, or the number of DCC dual-mode decoders, are a good indication in themselves as to DC's popularity. It's fairly easy to build a DCC decoder with a pass-thru circuit to allow DC use, so it's easy to understand why manufacturers would use it. There are a few engines out there that were designed before DCC were common and that are only available in DC-only versions (like the Bachmann FM H-16-44s used in the MR "Virginian" project layout) but most engines sold as DC engines today are "DCC ready" with an 8- or 9-pin receptacle. I think that may be less a sign that many folks still want DC-only engines, as it is that many folks want to choose which decoder they put in. I may want to pass on buying a sound equipped engine for $200 if I can buy a non-DCC/sound one for $100, and later find a good deal on a sound decoder for $40-50 and install it myself.

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Tuesday, January 22, 2013 7:56 AM

wjstix

I'm not sure the number of DC engines being sold, or the number of DCC dual-mode decoders, are a good indication in themselves as to DC's popularity. It's fairly easy to build a DCC decoder with a pass-thru circuit to allow DC use, so it's easy to understand why manufacturers would use it. There are a few engines out there that were designed before DCC were common and that are only available in DC-only versions (like the Bachmann FM H-16-44s used in the MR "Virginian" project layout) but most engines sold as DC engines today are "DCC ready" with an 8- or 9-pin receptacle. I think that may be less a sign that many folks still want DC-only engines, as it is that many folks want to choose which decoder they put in. I may want to pass on buying a sound equipped engine for $200 if I can buy a non-DCC/sound one for $100, and later find a good deal on a sound decoder for $40-50 and install it myself.

Surely there are a number of DCC users buying DCC ready locos and installing their own choice of decoder for various reasons, including a lack of interest in sound or a personal preference in decoders.

BUT, such sales may also be "offset" by DC users like myself who buy DCC locos like those offered by Bachmann and promptly remove and resell the decoders.

AND, I have even bought a few normally too "expensive" locos with DCC and sound from BLI, because they were "on sale" at the right price - and I promptly removed those decoders as well - or in some cases replace whole tenders with non DCC tenders.

Any assumption that all DCC locos sold are being used on DCC layouts, or that all DCC ready locos are getting decoders added would be false by a long shot.

Just like any assumption that all DCC ready locos are being used by DC users would be equally false. I'm sure a fair to large percentage are being bought by DCC users. But the fact remains that the option to buy DC product remains and the manufacturers are showing no signs of changing that - with the lone exception of BLI, who is married not only to DCC, but more importantly to sound.

And on that note, I have consistently agreed with the notion that modelers who like onboard sound, should and will use DCC in the smaller scales. But by all measure that can be done, interest in sound is similar to use of DCC - roughly half.

Sheldon

    

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Posted by aj1s on Tuesday, January 22, 2013 8:56 PM

Randy, interesting ideas.

One way to get around the power-for-replying problem would be for the booster to provide some DC voltage instead of shutting completely off during the response interval. Then the responder could superimpose a signal on top of that pretty easily. Depending on the response interval frequency, the booster could reverse the polarity of the DC voltage for each response interval, to retain DC compatibility.

Given the low required bandwidth, there is plenty of time to transmit packets multiple times (with the recipient detecting and ignoring erroneous packets), so error correcting may not be all that necessary. That said, there are far better error detection techniques than vertical parity for noisy serial transmissions (e.g. CRC) with negligible decoding overhead on the decoder (or encoding overhead on the booster for that matter).

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Posted by hobo9941 on Tuesday, January 22, 2013 9:11 PM

5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones. At some point, manufacturers will just stop making DC equipment, just like they stopped making vinyl records, cassette tapes, and 8 tracks, when sales drop below some pre determined level.

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Posted by Santa Fe all the way! on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 2:51 AM
I was hoping for an interesting conversation with my original post and that's what I got. Nice job, very interesting. I would like to add that cell phone technology is evolving at a rapid pace. I have observed several layouts controlled wirelessly with cell phone apps.I would say this is another + for DCC. As the older generation passes, the younger hobbyists are more likely to have smartphones and want them to do just about everything, including control their layouts.
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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 5:23 AM

hobo9941

5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones. At some point, manufacturers will just stop making DC equipment, just like they stopped making vinyl records, cassette tapes, and 8 tracks, when sales drop below some pre determined level.

You might be surprised to learn how many people still have land line telelphones, and they still make vinyl records.

Maybe one day they will stop making DC  (or DCC ready) locos, but there is NO trend in that direction yet. Broadway Limited alone does not constitute a trend, in fact the trend is slightly in the other direction. MTH added DCC ready to what started out as only DCS/DCC with sound offerings. Bachmann chose to offer the EM-1 only with a low cost non sound dual mode decoder and make sound a plug in up grade. Everyone else still offers both.

Sheldon

    

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Posted by richhotrain on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 6:15 AM

ATLANTIC CENTRAL

hobo9941

5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones. At some point, manufacturers will just stop making DC equipment, just like they stopped making vinyl records, cassette tapes, and 8 tracks, when sales drop below some pre determined level.

You might be surprised to learn how many people still have land line telelphones, and they still make vinyl records.

Maybe one day they will stop making DC  (or DCC ready) locos, but there is NO trend in that direction yet. Broadway Limited alone does not constitute a trend, in fact the trend is slightly in the other direction. MTH added DCC ready to what started out as only DCS/DCC with sound offerings. Bachmann chose to offer the EM-1 only with a low cost non sound dual mode decoder and make sound a plug in up grade. Everyone else still offers both.

Sheldon

I agree with Sheldon.

It is hard to imagine discontinuing DC locos any time soon.

It is much cheaper and much easier to operate in DC mode.  The locos are less expensive and the power supplies are less expensive.  Most hobbyists still operate smaller layouts and don't need the added flexibilty of DCC. 

Even BLI locos operate on DC power right out of the box.

DC is here to stay, and that said from a proud DCC operator.

Rich

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Posted by BRAKIE on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 6:19 AM

hobo9941

5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones. At some point, manufacturers will just stop making DC equipment, just like they stopped making vinyl records, cassette tapes, and 8 tracks, when sales drop below some pre determined level.

I'm surprise DCC is still around seeing how things has revolved over the past 10 years.

Of course I remember when VCRs and Atari was all the rage and how  fast they came and  went replaced by newer technology.

I recall when MRC "Golden Power Pack was top notch technology then came their ControlMaster 10 with adjustable track voltage and momentum.Now there's the Tech 6 that gives you the best of both worlds.

So,in the next 5-10 years who knows?

 Maybe in the next 20 years we may hear the question what's the percentage between DCC users and (say) Super Controler Mark 5?

 

 

Larry

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Posted by richhotrain on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 6:31 AM

BRAKIE

hobo9941

5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones. At some point, manufacturers will just stop making DC equipment, just like they stopped making vinyl records, cassette tapes, and 8 tracks, when sales drop below some pre determined level.

I'm surprise DCC is still around seeing how things has revolved over the past 10 years.

Of course I remember when VCRs and Atari was all the rage and how  fast they came and  went replaced by newer technology.

I recall when MRC "Golden Power Pack was top notch technology then came their ControlMaster 10 with adjustable track voltage and momentum.Now there's the Tech 6 that gives you the best of both worlds.

So,in the next 5-10 years who knows?

 Maybe in the next 20 years we may hear the question what's the percentage between DCC users and (say) Super Controler Mark 5?

 

Interesting, so you think that DCC is a passing fancy?

Rich

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Posted by mlehman on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 6:34 AM

Landline Phone [only] - check

Vinyl records [cassette decks, too] -  check

Smile True, there are a lot of us out here, but I'm not kidding myself when there's only one model of phone available with a cord among the 100s of wireless offerings at the big box.

I doubt DC will ever get quite that scarce, though, at retail; just too many people want a train set for Xmas.

Any discussion about technology necessarily includes people and what they want. People want an affordable train to run around the tree without having to decrypt some new computer language to get it to go. They want simple, I doubt that's going away.

Real DC layouts will still be with us in numbers for several more decades. I tend to think that there will be a few new DC layouts built, too, and that the available hardware will still be available in used, if not always in new form and even cheap enough eventually that people will seek it out for that reason alone. The price of copper will affect that some, because those old power packs will rise in scrap value if it keeps going up, tending to whittle away as more unfortunately go to recycling than to new owners willing to put them to work.

I suspect the trend towards more DC versions of locos being offered lately likely has more to do with an ailing economy, however, than with any reversal in trends. Some people don't want DCC, so they ditch the decoder. Some manufacturers think they need more offerings for those who can't afford that, but will if a decoder [that will be surplus to them) is taken out of the equation.

Of course, given that a decoder is an electronic device, its cost is more likely to fall according to Moore's law (http://www.laits.utexas.edu/~anorman/61N/Text/microelectronics/micro%20III.html), unlike the non-electronic components of a loco. Eventually most locos will likely be sold as DCC-equipped, but DC-capable, because the cost of the decoder will be low enough it makes more economic sense to to stock one version, rather than two throughout the manufacturing and distribution chain. Bachmann's use of these DC/DCC decoders is an example of this trend, although those decoders often still need work. What did you expect for "free"? Eventually, they will get that right, too.

Does this mean DC will go away? Nope, because inclusion of dual mode, DC/DCC technology for those decoders will fall along with the overall price of the decoder according to Moore's law, too. I guess what I'm saying, as shocking as it may seem, is that DCC will eventually save DC, so long as those Xmas sets are out there. They'll come with a DC powerpack, but with a dual mode loco instead. The real question will be how fast command station technology follows decoder technology in dropping costs. That lag will determine the actual cut-off date for new DC-only production, but I think it's really hard to say when that might be, perhaps even IF it might be.

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Posted by Rick Mugele on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 1:45 PM

]5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones.[/quote][quote user="hobo9941"]

5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones. At some point, manufacturers will just stop making DC equipment, just like they stopped making vinyl records, cassette tapes, and 8 tracks, when sales drop below some pre determined level.

In 5 or 10 years from now, there will still be millions of landline telephones, so if there are going to be that many DC layouts, by then, we better start building lots more now.Smile

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Posted by BRAKIE on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 2:58 PM

richhotrain

Interesting, so you think that DCC is a passing fancy?

Rich

Nope,all I'm saying is technology can not be held back  and there will be a better control system invented.

Its a matter of time.

Larry

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Posted by BRAKIE on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 3:12 PM

Rick Mugele

]5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones.

hobo9941

5 or 10 years from now, you will see about as many DC layouts as landline telephones. At some point, manufacturers will just stop making DC equipment, just like they stopped making vinyl records, cassette tapes, and 8 tracks, when sales drop below some pre determined level.

In 5 or 10 years from now, there will still be millions of landline telephones, so if there are going to be that many DC layouts, by then, we better start building lots more now.Smile

DC will be around till the end of the hobby..There will always be those that prefer DC over DCC due to the cost.

Of course if other manufacturers follow Bachmann's lead and have a line of inexpensive DCC equipped locomotives then the tide could turn.

I decided years ago I will never do the job of a hostler on a DCC layout again.Once is enough.

After a 3(4?) hour operation session I felt like I was a accountant.Laugh

I used a Tech 6 for my DC and my lone decoder equipped locomotive and I just bought the Tech 6 handheld..I will need that more for walk around then its intended DCC use.I do plan on adding DCC/ Sound equipped locomotive or locomotives in the near future..

I do like DCC's big plus..Programable CVs.

Larry

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Posted by Doughless on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 3:28 PM

Another factor that may influence the percentages is layout theme or operating plan.  I run one train at a time, and therefore, have no real need for DCC (although I bought a system to run onboard sound locos).  Others may like to run one train unattended while switching a local, and use two separate circuits to accomplish this.  No real need for anything other than DC in that case too.  So as long as there are these types of layouts, there will be a demand for lower cost DC.

Who knows what those percentages will be in 5 - 10 years.  Do those types of layouts fade away over time?  I wouldn't think they would.  

Also, as the population ages, perhaps mobility and other concerns take over and folks will be moving from a complex basement empire to a simpler layout that will only need DC (although once converted to DCC, they will likely stay with DCC on a smaller layout)  

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Posted by richhotrain on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 3:50 PM

BRAKIE

richhotrain

Interesting, so you think that DCC is a passing fancy?

Rich

Nope,all I'm saying is technology can not be held back  and there will be a better control system invented.

Its a matter of time.

I just hope, if that is true, that the successor to DCC is backward compatible, given all of the equipment and expense that I and so many others have committed to this aspect of the hobby.

Rich 

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Posted by BRAKIE on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 5:54 PM

richhotrain
I just hope, if that is true, that the successor to DCC is backward compatible,

Rich,Guessing here but,that could be done-maybe a dual mode CV setting?

That's way over my head.Laugh

Larry

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Posted by wjstix on Thursday, January 24, 2013 8:52 AM

Maybe we should clarify terms a little. To me a "DC only" engine is one like some of the Bachmann engines, like their FM H-16-44 or F40 where the motor uses the frame to collect power. You have to disassemble the engine, isolate the motor, and do a 'hardwire' DCC installation to convert it. I think those engines will eventually disappear. They will either be discontinued or the manufacturer will upgrade the motor / chassis to have an isolated motor and provision be made for an easy plug-in or drop-in DCC installation.

"DCC ready" to me means an engine that out of the box will run only on DC. It doesn't have a decoder installed but has the motor isolated from the frame, and an 8- or 9-pin DCC receptacle (or at least a lightboard that could easily be replaced with a replacement drop-in decoder) for easy conversion. I think those type of engines will be made for a long time, as many folks prefer to buy those engines and choose which decoder they want to install, rather than going with the (often inferior grade) factory installed decoder.

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Posted by mlehman on Thursday, January 24, 2013 9:09 AM

Stix,

I doubt that any new loco models will be introduced from this point on that are DC-only. In fact, someone better acquainted with current models might be able to tell us whether or not any have been introduced in the last few years. Sure, there's continued production of models already on the market. But even those are being converted to be DCC-ready when updates are done to them by the manufacturer.

DCC-ready will still be around for awhile. But when a large percentage of buyers are going to use DCC and the decoder is now about 50 cents (maybe not yet, but I bet it's not far away -- well that's what I was trying to explain anyway in my last comment) and dual DC/DCC mode, then there's little incentive to produce and stock two otherwise identical forms of the same model. It will actually get to the point soon when doing that cost the manufacturermore than simply putting the decoder in and letting those who want either DC or a different DCC board deal with it after purchase.

Of course this assumes an OEM DCC board is decent. Bachmann is almost there, the board in my newish 44 tonner is pretty good and much better than the ones that came in the 70-tonners, which I just pitch on arrival. Maybe next year they'll have that all fixed.

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Posted by Train Modeler on Thursday, January 24, 2013 10:23 AM

About half the people I know use DCC.   The other half is looking at it.      So, I would say in 5 to 10 years about half of that half will be DCC, leaving 1/4 still DC.    Sound, ease of operations and MUing is driving a lot of it from those I speak with.    I went DCC( before sound) because of the easy radio capability/operations.     

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Posted by Rick Mugele on Thursday, January 24, 2013 5:08 PM

Any successor to DCC will probably be wireless like RailPro.  RailPro can use DCC power and will not interfere with DCC operations.  The point is that DCC layouts can continue to be DCC layouts while entertaining other systems that do not require DCC signals.  The DCC investment can be retained. 

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Thursday, January 24, 2013 6:55 PM

wjstix

Maybe we should clarify terms a little. To me a "DC only" engine is one like some of the Bachmann engines, like their FM H-16-44 or F40 where the motor uses the frame to collect power. You have to disassemble the engine, isolate the motor, and do a 'hardwire' DCC installation to convert it. I think those engines will eventually disappear. They will either be discontinued or the manufacturer will upgrade the motor / chassis to have an isolated motor and provision be made for an easy plug-in or drop-in DCC installation.

"DCC ready" to me means an engine that out of the box will run only on DC. It doesn't have a decoder installed but has the motor isolated from the frame, and an 8- or 9-pin DCC receptacle (or at least a lightboard that could easily be replaced with a replacement drop-in decoder) for easy conversion. I think those type of engines will be made for a long time, as many folks prefer to buy those engines and choose which decoder they want to install, rather than going with the (often inferior grade) factory installed decoder.

Stix, nearly everything in production in the last 10 years or more is "DCC ready", at least to the degree of the motor being isolated from the frame.

And just to be "clear", all my references to DC locos refer to locos without decoders installed, DCC ready as they may be, they are still DC out of the box.

"DCC ready" is only important to someone who plans to install a decoder - to a DC operator it is just a DC loco that does not have parts we don't want.

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Posted by BRAKIE on Thursday, January 24, 2013 8:12 PM

mlehman
It will actually get to the point soon when doing that cost the manufacturermore than simply putting the decoder in and letting those who want either DC or a different DCC board deal with it after purchase.

Just about all of Bachmann's latest locomotives are DCC equipped..I'm told the C44-9W and GP7/9 will be released with sound and the H16-44 will become DCC/Sound equipped...Street should be around $100.00

Seems like Deja vu from when Life Like was turning the hobby world upside down with their highly detailed P2K locomotives.

So,if the other manufacturers follows suit with affordable DCC equipped locomotives,we may see a study growth in DCC..As you know a Bachmann GP40-2 with DCC on board can be had for around $40-45.00. One could use a EZ DCC system(less then $100.00 street) for simple DCC operations.

BTW and food for thought..The EZ DCC system cost less then some DC power packs.

I don't think we will see 50 cent decoders any time sound..

I know three guys that gave up DCC as being to "complicated"..Laugh I don't understand that reason at all either.

Larry

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Posted by mlehman on Thursday, January 24, 2013 9:34 PM

BRAKIE
I don't think we will see 50 cent decoders any time sound..

Larry,

50 cents in industrial scale quantities was what I was referring to; our street price would be something like $10, if it was available separately.

The Europeans tend to be ahead of us in miniaturizing decoders. After all, most decoders are essentially what would be one or more integrated circuits (IC) in most other devices these days. Once you think about it, it makes sense for decoders to be bigger than they actually need to be for us ham-handed folks. The wire hookups, capacitor and the board itself are all bigger than most need to be. However, it's an acceptable form factor that works for most of what we need in HO. The N scalers probably see something closer to an IC in size for many of theirs already, but I'm talking even smaller than many of them.

And there are many, many ICs out there that designers just drop into devices when they need a certain range of functions. No real reason for not making them smaller, DCC-decoder on a chip, but when they do, people will likely be paying less for them pretty quickly after they're first introduced. In a world of increasingly scarce resources, an IC-sized DCC decoder will eventually have a price advantage over the relatively bulky decoders we tend to use now.

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Posted by BRAKIE on Friday, January 25, 2013 5:19 AM

mlehman

50 cents in industrial scale quantities was what I was referring to; our street price would be something like $10, if it was available separately.

Oh..Ok..

I also forgot seeing decoders for $16.95($19.95 MSRP) at Tony's Train Exchange so,I can see where a 10 buck decoder could become a reality.

As far as  tiny decoders they  already make a plug and play decoder for Z Scale.Surprise

Larry

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Posted by rrinker on Friday, January 25, 2013 6:51 AM

 We're at $11.99 for  decoder now, and have been for some time - 10 packs of NCE D13SRJ;s are $119.95 at several places.

 I think that short of cheap train set bits, the days of DC only are done. Apart from a few design mistakes, most any new loco is pretty darn easy to add a decoder to. It would be nice if the industry could reach a consensus on just what "DCC Ready" means, because there are still too many products being made that stamp this label on the box but they most dfinitely aren't.

 Kinda suprised the concept didn;t take hold even before DCC, since the idea of providing a socket in between the track pickup and motor wires isn;t just for DCC - it would work for any sort of control system requiring a loco install, PLUS you just short the appropriate pins and it's a plain old DC loco. Zero downside to DCC users, zero downside to DC users, and zero downside to any potential future system.

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Friday, January 25, 2013 7:07 AM

BRAKIE

I know three guys that gave up DCC as being to "complicated"..Laugh I don't understand that reason at all either.

Larry, I will give you my personal reasons why DCC is too complicated for me.

It is not that I don't understand it or know how to use it, I use it on other peoples layouts all the time.

But on my own layout it would mean hours, maybe hundreds of hours of work that I don't need or want to do. And I don't mean to install the system or the decoders, but that would be a big job too.

Eaxmple - MU and speed matching of locos. All my DC lashups run fine together, and most of my steam will double head together regardless of brand or wheel arrangement.

BUT, if I had DCC, all these locos would require speed matching, CV adjustments, test loop running, etc, etc, etc, - which would take time. I have over 130 locos, all of which are part of the layout operating scheme. I know from the experience of others that two DC locos that run fine together will likely not after decoder installs - until they have their CV's adjusted - matching my fleet of 130 locos to run as well together on DCC as they do now on DC would be a big job.

Also, the whole process of consisting and "un-consisting" locos is extra work I hate when operating DCC on others layouts - at my house they just get coupled together - no 5 minute button pushing exercises.

That is time I would rather spend building a structure or freight car or running the trains.

So for some of us, DCC comes with unwanted and unneeded complexity.

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Posted by BRAKIE on Friday, January 25, 2013 7:19 AM

rrinker
Kinda suprised the concept didn;t take hold even before DCC,

Randy Here something I would like to share.I recall the discussion me and three other student members had at the Columbus HO club way back in '64.

We discussed  how nice it would be to have independent locomotive control..Our thoughts back then was to use R/C using AA size batteries in the fuel tank..

Of course the old heads told us that independent train control won't happen but,it was nice to be young and dream the impossible.

Looking back I fully believe we knew that had to be a better way.

I will be using my Tech 6 for DCC/sound control on my 1' x 10' switching layout.I also have the Tech 6 hand held throttle in case I want to emulate Progressive Rails Lakeville operations.

Larry

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Posted by richhotrain on Friday, January 25, 2013 7:23 AM

All very interesting.

What specific development(s) made DCC possible?

Rich

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Posted by wjstix on Friday, January 25, 2013 7:53 AM

mlehman

Stix,

I doubt that any new loco models will be introduced from this point on that are DC-only. In fact, someone better acquainted with current models might be able to tell us whether or not any have been introduced in the last few years. Sure, there's continued production of models already on the market. But even those are being converted to be DCC-ready when updates are done to them by the manufacturer.

 
Yup, that was my point exactly. The examples I cited have been in production for 15 years or longer. No one makes engines like that anymore in HO, nor will they ever again. DCC-ready will probably never go away, unless at some point everyone agrees on using only one type of decoder for all their engines.
Stix

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