Greenbergs prices vs E-bay

[Anonymous]

Hi all, got my new 2005 Greenbergs Lionel price guide today and was I basically stuned on a lot of items -,especially some I was going to bid on--
Found a lot were either way overbids or as close to book value as could be.
Do these people bidding don't have any idea at all as to what the value is or do
they have more money than any thing else ??
I personally wouldn't offer a car dealer $40K for a $20K auto--
Have really learned a lot {as far as values} in one evening with this value book!
There was one car I wanted that was listed in book new for $25 and already up to $42 and 1 1/2 days to go--I guese like you said-value is in eye of beholder!
I go to e-bay to save, not pay full retail-might as well go to hobby shop.[:)][:)][?]
Thanks

[pbjwilson]

I've been reading on this forum about e-bay prices being out of line. I collect pre-war trains and find the prices being paid on e-bay well below what Greenbergs lists. Sometimes up to 2/3 less than what is listed in the guide.

The other thing is greenbergs is a "guide" not a definitive price quote. And e-bay is an auction. I was shocked when I went to a live auction and saw what people were paying for stuff. They were bidding close to what new retail would be on items that were common and in used condition.

Also I find the fact that you can buy something on your computer, thats not readily available at your local hobby shop, and arrives at your doorstep in a few days pretty appealing.

Other than one bad experience that cost me less than $20 I've had nothing but good transactions on e-bay.

[Anonymous]

Prices often vary in different markets... question is, what market does the prices in Greenberg's reflect??

And as the previous poster mentioned, convenience is worth a lot, since via e-bay I can search, sort, and buy all in the middle of the night from the comfort of home. What the price might be at York or some other far-off show is completely irrelevant for me...

[Anonymous]

Greenbergs may be just a guide, but it inherenly shows {I belive} what most are willing to pay
Thus the average and yes a guage to go by, Because you or someone finds some good buys
is understandable--that always happens, me personally I get mostly later model stuff-maybe that is the problem- yes I have got a few things at good prices, but now that I have a "guide" I
can be a better judge . I am new at this, no offense to anyone, but for the most part at least in the area I am looking you really have to be knowledgeable.[:)][:)]

[brianel027]

I like the "A Few Minutes With..." feature in CTT. In December of 2004 a train dealer, Steve Suskin, was featured. He said in explaining his view on changes in the train market place:
"The worse change has been the arrival of eBay. It has changed the way people perceive pricing. It has been a dumping ground, so everyone perceives that the value of something is what it sold for on eBay. That isn't the truth."

I don't know Steve from Adam, so this isn't an attack. Steve is speaking (I assume) from a viewpoint of being a dealer and paying whatever wholesale price he is charged... no doubt in part based on who his wholesaler(s) is and how much he can afford to keep in stock.

But I don't entirely agree with what he has said here. There is plenty of dumping of product being done without the aid of eBay. Plenty of blowouts are going to a few select large wholesalers and dealers, with many small dealers often being left out of the loop - and left holding the bag having paid more wholesale than the blowout price.

If one thinks that eBay has had a negative impact on pricing perception, it would also be as easy to argue that the price guides have also done the same thing. There has been plenty written on the topic of price guides being just that: a guide. Not the definitive last word, or the price Bible. Many people look at the price guides, see the higest price given, and price their item at that, failing to notice the decreasing values based on condition. I've seen too many guys at shows with poor condition items and prices taken from the book from the "near mint" price column. Or failing to read what the conditions mean. Of course, there's plenty of this stuff happening too on eBay. I love it when a eBay seller lists his item as "Rare" while there are 6 other identical items for sale at the same time.

eBay of course is an auction, and therefore subject to fluctuation based on a wide variety of circumstances that can at times be uneven. Yet I find eBay useful to get a ballpark idea on what people are actually paying for a particular train item. Of course, you need to view past closed auctions, and it helps if you continue to view that item periodically (which you will do if it's something you are interested in).

And though there are exceptions, I find in many cases the prices being paid on eBay differ from the price guides and fall on the lower side of what the price guides say.

Of course it helps to consider that eBay prices are driven and determined directly by the paying customer, the consumer. The prices guides get their information from a variety of sources, but mostly dealers. Dealers do have to charge a little more: they have overhead, utilities, salaries, taxes and repair costs. Plus a reputation to maintain if they wi***o stay in business. Mighty easy to sell for a discount if you don't have an actual storefront to maintain.

After so many years of having the price guides more or less dictating what people charge and pay for trains (with the general attitude that everything that says Lionel on the box, no matter what it is, will be worth more money next year), I think it's refreshing to have something like eBay where the prices are based more on what the customer wants to pay for something, be it a high or a low price.

Or to put this another way, I haven't seen a price guide in a couple years, but the last time I did, there was a train car valued at $75 in mint condition. Meanwhile in the same magazine where the price guide was advertised, was the same exact train car in an ad, mint in the box, for a blowout price of $30. I guess you could dream that car was worth $75, but as long as the blowout is in stock, I'd say the car was worth $30!!

If eBay is deemed as unfair to pricing by some, the policies of the train companies have been doing the same thing for years: they favor the large volume mailorder places over the small volume local dealer, even though they claim to value their small dealer networks. And it's not just toy trains. That's why brick and mortar Main Street businesses are disappearing as fast as they are.

Or to go one track further off the mainline, the companies actual production and labor costs being in China, are lower than they have been for them in ages. Yet suggested list prices for the most part, continue going up and up. And even with the reported cuts in production runs, there are still plenty of blowouts. If an item has a $60 list price and is being blowout for $30, I'd say that item is worth $30 since that's what it is being advertised as.

[Chris F]

http://www.trains.com/community/forum/topic.asp?page=-1&TOPIC_ID=30032&REPLY_ID=299632#299632

That 12782 Lift Bridge on e-Bay went for well under $600, vs. $780 in the 2005 guide.

If you have an opportunity to go to a toy train auction, you'd find it interesting for comparison to e-Bay. Some items go for ridiculously high (to me) prices, while others are real bargains. First time to a live auction - DON'T BRING CASH, CHECKS, CREDIT CARDS, ETC.!!! (DAMHIK).

[GPJ68]

Personally, I think ebay is a much better guide to the actual "value" of most average (anything not TRULY rare, limited, or mint collector grade) train items than any price guide, with one caveat - throw out the highest bids. What I've noticed, at least on the particular stuff I watch for, is that the outrageous bids placed on some things are by new/inexperienced bidders, ones that most likely don't do a little research on selling prices of past auctions, fall for the all-too-common "RARE" and "HARD TO FIND" descriptions of unbelievably common PostWar/MPC stock, or just get caught up in a bidding frenzy and lose all perspective on price. Then there are those who just have to have an item now at any cost , or have a ton of $$$ to throw around (and readily do).

I get a kick out of the PostWar dealers at train shows with $50 to $75+ price tags on common cars like the 3469 dump car (one of my favorites), knowing I"ve bought many off ebay (in better shape) for $20 to $30 bucks tops (including shipping). Same with modern production MTH, K-Line, et.al that has been available for a few years. Have seen a K-Line GP38-2 on a shelf for the past year+ that the fellow wants $250+ for. The same engine has been selling on ebay for $75 to $120 (last one I noticed hit $150). Some day I'll pick one up for @ $100, when I've got a few bucks to spare.

IMHO, do a little research on ebay sold items, toss out the loony high dollar sales, lean towards the low side of the the remaining bids, and you've got the current "value" of whatever you're looking for (figuring shipping cost as part of the "value" is important, some bidders on ebay seem to forget that).

If it wasn't for ebay, I'd barely have a fraction of the rolling stock (PostWar and modern) that I've got now. Goes double for the amount of track and switches.

I'll second Brianel's well thought comments on the CTT article as well. IMHO, many of the people knocking ebay for drastically cutting the value of older (not current production) train stuff are the dealer-types and wannabes upset that the "deal" they got from the attic sale (to re-sell) won't bring the windfall they thought, based on past inflated dealer/collector derived price guides, and not the savy consumer.

[Anonymous]

Just tonight there was a "Old Dutch Cleanser" box car #9870 on e-bay that went for $97.00. The
new price in Greenbergs was $25.00, I don't care if it was made of gold I personally would not
have bid that much--Lets face it --Alot of trains are nice and worth money but '57 Chevys they
aren't!! Personally {all due respect} I think the majority of these trains are well overbidded--not
necessarily over priced.
If people are going to these auctions, it depends on who is there at the time and what they want to pay, but I believe overall that there has to be at least some guide and if Greenburgs follows all these auctions all year round, they are in better position to put up a value more so than the majority of most people and bless those that find it cheaper on E-bay--
However one small question: If you HAD to sell your items how much could you get in return
vs what you paid today -not tomorrow??[:)][:)][?]

[Dave Farquhar]

The major downside to Ebay is that you can't examine the item closely. This probably has something to do with why prewar and other tinplate items tend to go for under book value. They are easily damaged and there's likely to be some damage (maybe major, maybe not) that you don't catch in the photo. I just bought a pair of Marx tinplate tank cars. The photos were reasonably clear but there was definitely damage to one of the cars that wasn't clear in the photograph. But since I paid much less than book value, I really didn't care.

Postwar items aren't as easily damaged, so that may have something to do with why they fetch higher values.

I think seeing items for dead-on book value, while others go for much higher, is a reflection of the knowledge of the bidders. There are bidders who know exactly what they're doing, but occasionally a couple of people get into bidder's insanity, bid the price into the stratosphere, and end up paying way too much for the item. You may very well find by searching that the same item sold for less than book value a week or two before.

If I have an extra item that I'm thinking about selling, I look both at its book value and at auctions for similar items. The gap between the prices Ebay is fetching and the book tell me how hot the item is. Neither is gospel, but the two give me a nice picture.

Ebay is what you call a disruptive technology--something new that comes in and shakes up the marketplace and changes it forever. So it's a natural that some people are going to regard it as the best thing that ever happened to the hobby (or maybe #2 behind electricity), and other people are going to say it put them out of business. LIke it or not, it won't go away, so it's best to learn how to make use of it. I know some people who've built their entire collections on Ebay purchases just because there's no way to get the stuff locally, and it's hard to find dealers who'll deal in what they like.

But if you have a local hobby shop, by all means buy there first, because you can see the item. Use Ebay as a backup, either to buy things the dealer doesn't have and doesn't expect to have any time soon, or to hunt for bargains. You'll find them occasionally.

[3railguy]

It works in reverse. Values are what people are willing to pay. Greenburg does not dictate actual trading activity. It monitors it and averages the prices people are paying. The book is not completey accurate and there is no way it ever could be. This isn't Walmart where you get a flyer in the mail and pay the prices they advertise.

[laz 57]

A man's got to know his limitations.
Bid only what you are willing to pay.
If you want it go for it if not don't worry it will come around again.
laz57

[jimhaleyscomet]

On ebay I have noticed that selling price plus shipping price is often the same as "book" value (especially on lower priced items). If two people really want the item selling price often exceeds book value. If only one person really wants it (occasionally happens) then it might go for less than book price. It seems to me many people "proxy" bid low on 20 auctions in hopes of getting a deal on one item. That keeps a "bottom" under most prices on ebay.

I have also noticed that when I recieve items I sold at under book value they often are not as nice as I thought they would be when I bid.

I recently found a local hobby shop that sells everything for 10% off mfs retail price. Online blowouts (of stuff I actually want) and my local hobby shop will be getting most of my future business.

Jim H

[tjsprague]

I've found that decent post war Lionel goes for well below Greenberg on the ebay site. Unfortunately I know this because I've sold most of my postwar stock recently. Oh well, it's not the 90's. I remember what stuff was going for pre ebay $300 for VG 736, etc. The dealers and career collectors had a real advantage then as local meets and auction houses controled the supply and the prices.

Conversely, if there's a mint item, with boxes, there will be some incredible bids. Personally, I go for the VG-E stuff, without boxes. Prices are much more resonable, I'm not afraid to run it, and I don't collect card board.

As far as ebay being a dumpng ground for dealer overstocks. Well, it is. Store owners need to raise cash so will cut there losses by selling a lot of older "new' stuff so they can stay in business. The values of new trains generally go down for some time before they become "collectables" and then go up.

My advise when buying on ebay;
1. Make sure the photos are clear. A well timed blur is a tool for some junk dealers.
2. Check feedback.
3. Ask questions, including "will you guarantee the train is as described.", or "original"
4. Have fun.

Tim

[brianel027]

Tim's got some good advice for buying on ebay. I've seen items in the past where it was described as mint or brand new, and I could see a coupler broke off or that the trucks on the car were of different types, or not spring die cast when they should have been. So I would pass those items by. Same goes for items described as "rare" when they are in fact quite common. If I can't believe the description of the item, how can I trust the seller?

On the topic of eBay being a dumping ground for dealer overstocks - it's not dealer overstocks. Reality check: the wholesale margins for most typical small dealers is 25-30% off MSRP, give or take. In other words, your neighborhood dealer pays $7.00 for an item that lists for $10.00. Plus your neighborhood dealer also pays shipping and freight. And the smaller the quantity he orders, the higher the wholesale price he pays. Plus there's time he takes to pay his bill... the faster he pays, the better his wholesale. So for the most part, it is NOT small dealers dumping overstock... they'd be losing money. They might do it once in a while out of necessity, but not as a normal thing.

The dumping is happening by folks who are getting drastically reduced wholesale prices by either major wholesalers or the companies direct. And this tends to be for certain items that either were overproduced and/or just didn't sell as well as anticipated. This happens because money is tight, competition is intense and the companies cannot afford to sit on large stocks of inventory while spending lots of money on new tooling, next years production runs, salaries, etc.

I cannot reveal names, but I know of people who are getting very very good prices on trains to sell on eBay. If an item lists for $10.00, the local dealer gets it for $7.00, but YOU can get it for $3.00 - well, guess what? You put it on eBay at an opening bid of $4.00, you just made money (provided someone bids) and are blowing the local dealer out of the picture. I also know of a couple instances where partially defective product, or product not up to full quality control was dumped. Of course, the consumer (be it on eBay or through a mailorder venue) may not be aware that this is the case.

I guess it all does boil down to being a savy consumer. It pays do to do your homework: check prices, ask questions and know that if something is priced at a "too good to be true" price, maybe it is.

Sometimes you get lucky and do get a real deal. It's happened to me too. You tell your friends and they start drooling... now they want to find a deal too. Getting something for nothing must be in our human genetics. It's a risk with the hobby, but it's also part of the fun.