HURRICANE LEE (noaa.gov)
Already a CAT 5 with 165 MPH winds. forward speed ~14 MPH. Further strenghting possible. One item that may mitigate the strength is that strong hurricanes often have a eye reform causing a loss of strength. That happened with Idalia just before hitting the Big Bend. Right now Lee still pointed at Jacksonville but most likely will not keep that track. A wag right now will be land fall ~ Wedensday 20 September. But if it happpens to speed up then sooner ? So plan any travel after that along the Atlantic coast with Lee in mind.
Let us hope Lee turns away from Coast as predicted.
Local weather guessers report the 'projection models' show that Lee will turn to a Northerly track in the neighborhood of Bermuda and will not be a threat to the continental USA. The Canadian Maritime Provences may get hit.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
National Hurricane Center is now predicting the Lee is making a turn to the North and will inhabit the middle of the Atlantic Ocean - far from land for the next week.
Well eye reformation complete with winds back to 120 MPH. As projected Lee is supposed to turn to straight northward about 0100 Wedensday morning. We will see!
I've been following the NHC website for some years now and their predictions on the paths of various tropical disturbances have been relatively accurate.
Latest NHC plot showing the center of the track landing on southwestern Nova Scotia as a tropical storm. This still means that Cape Cod and Maine will get a lot of wind and rain. Beaches will probably be hit with some impressive waves as well.
so far probablities at this time now of gale force winds less than 5% for eastern Long island up to some parts of Maine. Now Nova Scotia 5 - 30%???
Hurricane Lee reported to have slowed forward progress to 5 MPH with 115 MPH winds. That may just be a reporting error? Have no idea what that slowing might mean. Eye wall has gone thru replacement. Still forecast still has it going north by 0100 (0500 GMT) Wedensday morning. Forecast to be minor hurricane abeam NY City.
Not a reporting error. Forward progress refers to the movement of the storm system as a whole, not the sustained wind speeds. Weak steering currents are often a cause.
The 2 PM report today has the system moving NNW at 9 MPH with wind at 110 MPH
Storm center still weaking. But it is a much wider storm with tropical force winds. Hopeflly no storm surge around NYC . I do not trust NJ Transit. Now Boston. It has not had enough time to recover from all the flooding past weekend.,
What I find amazing is how well the forecast track has been correct for this storm. Somebody's super computer has done a good job.
blue streak 1Storm center still weaking. But it is a much wider storm with tropical force winds. Hopeflly no storm surge around NYC . I do not trust NJ Transit. Now Boston. It has not had enough time to recover from all the flooding past weekend., What I find amazing is how well the forecast track has been correct for this storm. Somebody's super computer has done a good job.
Think it is a number of Super Computers using a number of different models that have been fine tuned over the decades.
I continually hear about 'The American Model', 'The European Model' and others.
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