Incidentally, I see DHL has just ordered 12 'freight' Alices from Eviation (which moved from Israel to Seattle at the end of 2020). This is a small electric aircraft (about 2500# payload, 440nm stated range, about 250mph cruise, indicated recharge of 30min turnaround) and is supposed to have an advantage over existing aircraft in, you guessed it, California.
Something I expect this to provide is valuable experience to develop the original passenger version of the Alice, possibly in establishing or refining the autonomous flight that was a component of Eviation's original regional-flight business model. A plane that size can still have a BRS emergency 'landing system'... possibly even a zero-zero one...
I continue to think that the Alice type of aircraft, if it can be established to be safe and cost-effective, is as good a short-term alternative to intermediate-length HSR -- and perhaps quite a bit of regional rail -- as there needs to be. That would reconcentrate true HSR on stops more widely apart in the center of areas easily served at will by these fast-enough aircraft, but with better power and more amenities...
Flintlock76 CMStPnP Ahhh not quite. Like I said, take it for what it's worth...
CMStPnP Ahhh not quite.
Like I said, take it for what it's worth...
Then along came the 747, and folks like (now Sir) Freddy Laker... and flying became largely commoditized, at perfectly acceptable domestic flight times.
Just as when intermodal freight ceased to be a costly high-speed Z-train service (in my fairly recent memory UPS experimented with borrowed Genesis power to increase peak speeds of some intermodal service) and became a race-to-the-bottom Walmart Effect commodity like coal used to be... the cheap and effortless assurance of huge profits from 'flying first class' was likely eroded even as costs went up and up and up.
But there are people who know the industry history far better than I do who can take this discussion up with more sense.
CMStPnPAhhh not quite.
Like I said, take it for what it's worth.
Over time transporting people hasn't been a profitable endeavor. Easy prey for demigoguing politicians to garner votes by claiming fares being charged are outrageous. The voters are lame enough to support government subsidization when firms bow to the pressure and then say uncle. And then the riders squawk when the service offered is mediocre.
Flintlock76What they told him is "If First Class is full, the rest of the flight is pure profit."
Ahhh not quite. You can go to the CHARTER page on the American website for what it costs them to fly a commercial aircraft between two cities. Divide by available first class seats.......probably does not cover the fuel costs. It's been a while since I did it but I believe they quoted Chicago to LA as being $25,000 to charter each way for a mid-size jet like a MD-80. I could be wrong on that route and the costs could be out of date......you have to check their CHARTER page for the example they give.
BEAUSABREThe next generation of airliners will have a crew of two
I spoze it would be politically incorrect somehow to make fun of monkeys as pilots nowadays...
What you said makes perfect sense.
As far as airline profitability is concerned I can only pass along what my brother told me. He's ex-Air Force and has a lot of contacts who left the USAF and went into airline piloting jobs. What they told him is "If First Class is full, the rest of the flight is pure profit." Take it for what it's worth.
Flintlock76One other thing. Last year during the lockdowns the airlines were crying poverty since business was way, way down. If that's the case, where did they get the "billions" they're putting into pilotless research?
Congress paid them $15 Billion in direct subsidy just for 2020. Who knows what the amount will be in 2021. So just looking at American Airlines, $30 billion aircraft order in 2011, Another $30 Billion order in 2021. Have not looked at the orders in between . Net worth of the company is approx $62 Billion (don't ask me how you get that valuation which I think is astronomical given it's financial performance). Profit this year I think will be about $1 Billion. They need to historically hit $3-4 Billion in profit to call it a good year financially. My own suspicion is the airline industry like Amtrak runs technically insolvent most years. There is so much funny money and secrecy involved, nobody can tell really if the numbers on the annual reports are accurate in my view. For one, Boeing and the Airlines never publicly divulge exactly what they pay for the jets they buy, they both sign a confidentiality agreement. You never really can tell which routes they fly at a loss and which at a profit (sound familiary vs Amtrak?). Last with all the money taxpayers pour into Boeing, Airbus and into Airports and the like. One cannot really tell if the Airline industry is even self-supporting. So I never look at any airline as trully profitable. To me it looks like a giant shell game and kind of a scam to say it's a going concern.
Yes the airline industry will lose money or struggle under the Biden administration......just look at projected fuel prices is all you need to do. My guess is more airline subsidies will be paid this year and probably next. Time will tell.
American Airlines also seems to have a revolving door to into and out of bankruptcy multiple times in it's history with no real impact on it's management team or it's growth. Have you seen that in any other transportation sector?
CMStPnPYou have to wonder about the boneheads running those two airlines.
Lawyers and accountants.
Honestly though, I may be painting with too broad a brush. But it doesn't surprise me that when the founders of the airline industry, all pilots and aviation pioneers, began retiring in the early 1960's that's when the on-and-off turmoil in the airline industry began.
One other thing. Last year during the lockdowns the airlines were crying poverty since business was way, way down. If that's the case, where did they get the "billions" they're putting into pilotless research?
The next generation of airliners will have a crew of two
The pilot to monitor the computer actually flying the plane and a dog to bite the pilot if he tries to fly the plane himself
Flintlock76Amazing! What could possibly go worng?
Just the news of it leaking to the press above is going to impact ticket sales negatively and generate conspiracy theories. You have to wonder about the boneheads running those two airlines.
Amazing! What could possibly go worng?
I think it's great! You eliminate the need for sick days, vacations, strikes and the need for someone to take control when the machines fail which they usually do, sooner or later. Witness the Teslas that in driverless mode have a habit of failing and killing people. Ain't the future grand?
I think they would have a confidence hurdle here with the public but we'll see....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/airlines-united-american-dedicating-billions-123000875.html
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