Covid-19 long term effects on passenger travel

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Covid-19 long term effects on passenger travel
Posted by blue streak 1 on Sunday, June 14, 2020 9:44 PM

There is beginning to be long term concerns about persons who have recovered having long term effects.  One item is difficulty breathing which might cause many persons to not travel on western trains due to high altitudes of all but the Sunset.  That could really affect airlines with their higher cabin altitudes ( often 8500 feet cabin altitude ) unless they would be willing to fly at altitudes of 20 -24K feet.

Let us hope that persons will finally recover. From what read somehow the inside of the lung sacs gum up making oxygen harder to get into blood stream.  Other problems include chronic fatigue, feaver, headaches, etc.

What is concerning researchers is the effects of the earlier SARS and MERS.  That is somewhat a  problem as the base number of victims was too small.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200609/COVID-19-survivors-could-suffer-long-term-health-effects.aspx  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/13/report-suggests-some-mildly-symptomatic-covid-19-patients-endure-serious-long-term-effects/#78f6fea15979

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01643-8

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-health-long-term-lessons-earlier-coronavirus.html  

 

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Sunday, June 14, 2020 11:41 PM

The picture of the lung replaced by a transplant looked pretty nasty when compared to a healthy lung. People who've recovered from a severe COVID-19 infection will have some challenges.

My son was riding the Pacific Surfliner tonight and said it looked pretty empty compared to times in the past. May take a while for ridership to recover.

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Posted by A McIntosh on Thursday, June 18, 2020 4:02 PM

In addition to impaired lung function, The main impact that I see is that so many workers in office and admin. type jobs that have had to work from home. Many employers may continue with most of this as to reduce office costs. I see this having a negative effect on commuter and transit, as well as the Acela service. What's more the use of zoom technology will result in less business travel, thus more savings in corporate travel budgets but hurting airlines and Corridor rail.

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Posted by JPS1 on Thursday, June 18, 2020 4:15 PM

A McIntosh
 The main impact that I see is that so many workers in office and admin. type jobs that have had to work from home. Many employers may continue with most of this as to reduce office costs. I see this having a negative effect on commuter and transit, as well as the Acela service. What's more the use of zoom technology will result in less business travel, thus more savings in corporate travel budgets but hurting airlines and Corridor rail. 

Spot on!

Some airline analysts and execuives are saying that it could take three to five years for passenger loads to get anywhere near what they were proir to Covid-19.  

I used to go to Home Depot, Walmart, Target, HEB, etc. to buy what I needed.  Now I order it online.  And it is delivered when FedEx, Amazon, UPS say it will be on the porch.  In many instances the delivery charges, if any, are offset by the reduced wear and tear on my car.

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Posted by GERALD L MCFARLANE JR on Thursday, June 18, 2020 8:33 PM

Normally by this time of the year there are anywhere between 2.1 million and 2.6 million people flying daily.  Right now we're around 600k give or take, I expect it to be up to a 1 million by the July 4th weekend, which is less than 50% of peak air traavel demand, however, there's a difference between air travel and train travel and that is you can get up and move around on a train, or spend a little more and get a private room.  You can't base travel demand on surveys because it depends on who get's surveyed as to whether or not they will travel, we've had results anywhere from just under 50% of people say they won't fly yet up to 80% say they will...so take all surveys on travel with a grain of salt.

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Posted by scilover on Friday, June 19, 2020 6:05 AM
Not only that, people will be paranoid now to travel! Knowing how easily covid can spread and the fact that it lives on the surface for up to 2 weeks even makes me scared to travel…
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Posted by blue streak 1 on Friday, June 19, 2020 10:26 PM

This poster would like to start a thread about possible post covid-19 travel.  It will take some time.  Considerations will be how many persons might like to take a train short haul to avoid a bus or airplane.  That especially in the NEC but will apply as well to overnight LD routes.  I can imagine a person taking the Sunset Phoenix - LAX to avoid an airplane.

Now demand for sleeper space might even spike with the perceived less exposure in a private room ?

Then I would also like to include international sleeper services.  Right now Europe is a mixed bag with some services starting soon and others being cancelled or cut back.  Japan sleeeper trains do not show any cancellations.  China is another mixed bag with their few sleeper trains continuing except those to / from Bejine due to covid-19. It will take a lot of research by our many posters. 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, June 22, 2020 7:48 AM

My prediction:

No long-term effect and effects negligible of those that contracted the virus before the vaccine.    I believe what the Pentagon says about a vaccine sine they are the experts in germ warfare and have MUCH more experience than the civilian side of the fence.    Pentagon says vaccine approved for public use 18 months at the latest from initial out break last March.    Pentagon stated they even have a vaccine as soon as the end of this year.

I predict a full return to normalcy after the vaccine just as what happened after the Spanish Flu.    My estimate is less than 6 million impacted in the United States by the virus.......which is very slow moving / spreading so far.

I do agree the virus has hastened some societal changes like working from home and automation in factories as well as the workplace and those are here to stay.   Will it impact Mass Transit hugely?    Jury is still out on that one I think.    Will it impact passenger train ridership on Amtrak.   I don't think all that much in the liesure market, possibly a little in the commute but not a lot there either.   Not a lot of businesses can afford to have their whole workforce work from home #1, even my employer who has an unlimited budget cannot afford that long-term.    So I would say in firms that can afford remote workers probably 30-40% will work at home and the rest will continue to work in the office.     Your not going to see all employers switch to the current 80-100% work at home scenario.     A lot of small and medium businesses cannot even afford remote or work at home employees.    So those folks will still commute as well.     So time will tell the impact on mass transit which I think will be measureable but not overly dramatic.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Tuesday, June 23, 2020 8:17 AM

BTW, this issue is still in contention with various medical people arguing about it BUT the Italians have published that they suspect from what they are seeing via hospital admissions that the virus has become less virulent and appears to be mutating to be weaker and weaker and perhaps may die out prior to a vaccine being released to the public.    They based their speculation as not as many new patients needing ventilator support as well as increased testing of the population.

Just speculation by the Italians right now and there is some disagreement from other countries, so maybe isolated to Italy?    Not sure but interesting scenario they present as I had not figured it might die out on it's own as a potential scenario.    If this is true.........and it is a big IF.     Things could turn around faster for rail.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, June 25, 2020 6:11 AM

What is the NY almost ban on travelers from Florida going to do ?  Then you have the Amtrak OBS crews and what are they going to do ?   This may really reduce any persons from Florida traveling to NY, NJ, or CT.   Get off in PHL ?

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, June 25, 2020 4:26 PM

blue streak 1

What is the NY almost ban on travelers from Florida going to do ?  Then you have the Amtrak OBS crews and what are they going to do ?   This may really reduce any persons from Florida traveling to NY, NJ, or CT.   Get off in PHL ?

 

That's the idea,  that people from FL either not travel to NY or be quarantined for 14 days. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, June 25, 2020 5:54 PM

charlie hebdo
 
blue streak 1

What is the NY almost ban on travelers from Florida going to do ?  Then you have the Amtrak OBS crews and what are they going to do ?   This may really reduce any persons from Florida traveling to NY, NJ, or CT.   Get off in PHL ? 

That's the idea,  that people from FL either not travel to NY or be quarantined for 14 days. 

Nothing more than a political payback to Florida's governor, who took similar actions when New York was a 'hot spot' of the disease.

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Thursday, June 25, 2020 6:14 PM

BaltACD

That's the idea,  that people from FL either not travel to NY or be quarantined for 14 days. 

Wasn't just Florida quarantining NY'ers. I suspect the decline in cases in the NYC area is due in part to an effective (but not complete) "herd immunity".

Several states are asking visitors and returning residents to quarantine on arrival, which will adversely affect travel demand.

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