As far as I'm concerned, continuation of the current Amtrak system is the political trade for construction of the "Big Dig South" aka new Hudson River Tunnels. The latest cost estimate I've seen for the tunnels was $12.7 billion. While I suspect that estimate is low by a multiple of the amount, I have no way to prove it. I can point to the reaction of New York and New Jersey when it was proposed that the fed contribution be frozen and over-runs be eaten by the states, however. Put charitably, they ran and hid.
Political power has been moving south and west for generations. Reduce Amtrak services nationally and you reduce the chances there will ever be fed money available for repairing/upgrading the NE Corridor!
There was a very disturbing conference call between the DC Office of the Rail Passengers Association (RPA/NARP) and regional passenger rail advocates last week. Let me share my follow-up memo from this call and tip my hat to Charlie Hamilton from Washington State (All Aboard Washington) for his superb summary also quoted below.
I was on this call and it was deeply sad. Charlie's summary is a very accurate transcript. I am very grateful, none the less, to the RPA and to Sean and Jim for giving us a heads up on this now.
I made the final comment--that if this proves out the RPA/NARP has come to a real pass in its relationship to Amtrak. If the company means to self-destruct then they have become our enemy and must be treated to focused, direct criticism. We've known for years that the greatest threats could come from an administration that would appoint an anti-national network Amtrak Board and/or from a "new" Amtrak management devoted to finding ways to wind-up the national network. Anderson is not a government pro--but he can he really fail to grasp that Kay Bailey Hutchinson was right--Amtrak will be National or it will be nothing.
The ridiculous suggestion of going back to the well for the umpteenth time with tri-weekly operation on a route like the EMPIRE BUILDER is beneath contempt. Why would Amtrak want to cut back what literally is the best patronized single train in the United States? Capacity is never added on the surviving days. The fixed costs remain. The real usefulness of the service is compromised and the planned savings are never attained. At least in the past previous tri-weekly travesties were almost always reversed. But if we're in a "new era" its as like this time that the "failure" to attain cost targets could be used as an excuse for a complete shut-down. And let's not forget the Trump plan calls for dropping sleepers and food-service as well--even though the sleepers can generate up to 500% of the per passenger revenue as a coach.
And the suggested added frequencies (for example CHI/MSP) are a fraud too.
Does anyone truly believe the Scott Walker regime in Wisconsin would cooperate on the subsidy for added daylight trains? And particularly since Illinois and Minnesota would have to be on board as well. Illinois will host the majority of riders, but not even 10% of the route miles--so how to divide the costs? Don't worry--that won't be a problem because there will be no deal. And Amtrak fully knows this. Long haul trains simply are too complex to slice into neat subsidy wedges.
Of course we need to aggressively go after this plan--but in the short term the problem is Amtrak is trying to fly beneath the radar. As soon as possible RPA needs to get us some more concrete evidence we can present to the states/Congress. Fortunately the Trump budget includes language trying to shift national network costs to the states. That we can use immediately. And the Anderson threats to use PTC as an excuse to "suspend" services like the CZ in western Colorado and the SW CHIEF over Raton Pass may also be usable, but again we need bad recommendations from Amtrak's Route Review currently underway. If we lack proof we can be easily dismissed.
An added handout for the Day on the Hill setting forth examples of the improbability of multi-state compacts to subsidize national network services would be very helpful.
Alas!
Carl Fowler
Be sure and get any Amtrak timetables printed out from the Amtrak Web site NOW. xxxxxxxx Subject: Amtrak long-distance services For those of you who were not on RPA-NARP’s conference call this morning, here are some rough notes. For those of you who were on the call, please feel free to edit my notes appropriately. RPA is “pulling the alarm bell” regarding the future of long-distance services. They have good evidence that there is a major discussion going on within Amtrak to consider cutting and reconfiguring the LD trains. One discussion that they’ve heard about would be to reduce the Empire Builder to 3 days a week, and add frequencies CHI-MSP. The shorter trains would need to be paid for by the states. (It wasn’t discussed in the phone call, but it’s obvious that something similar could be done with the Starlight.) These discussions are apparently happening due to presidential influences in the White House, in DOT, and in the Amtrak board. RPA understands that Amtrak has been talking to state DOTs about this. Of course, they are unhappy because they would end up paying lots more for less service. In addition, reduction or removal of long-distance trains would increase allocated costs significantly for state-supported trains. It seems as though Amtrak may use safety concerns like PTC as an excuse to “temporarily” suspend services, including parts of the Cardinal, SWC, Zephyr, Vermonter, Ethan Allen, Adirondack and others. Jim Souby mentioned that the TIGER grant for the SWC may be held up significantly while a risk analysis and mitigation plan are prepared. We know that pressure from the states can force Amtrak to backtrack some of their plans, as may be happening in WA, VT and ME. But that sort of pressure must be continued. RPA is asking us to talk to our US Senators and Representatives. We should ask them to contact Amtrak directly (specifically Richard Anderson and Robert Dorsch, Vice President, Long Distance Service Line) to get straight answers about what they are planning, and to remind them that a reduced long-distance service is not what Congress has authorized. Charles Hamilton Board Member, All Aboard Washington
For those of you who were not on RPA-NARP’s conference call this morning, here are some rough notes. For those of you who were on the call, please feel free to edit my notes appropriately. RPA is “pulling the alarm bell” regarding the future of long-distance services. They have good evidence that there is a major discussion going on within Amtrak to consider cutting and reconfiguring the LD trains. One discussion that they’ve heard about would be to reduce the Empire Builder to 3 days a week, and add frequencies CHI-MSP. The shorter trains would need to be paid for by the states. (It wasn’t discussed in the phone call, but it’s obvious that something similar could be done with the Starlight.) These discussions are apparently happening due to presidential influences in the White House, in DOT, and in the Amtrak board. RPA understands that Amtrak has been talking to state DOTs about this. Of course, they are unhappy because they would end up paying lots more for less service. In addition, reduction or removal of long-distance trains would increase allocated costs significantly for state-supported trains. It seems as though Amtrak may use safety concerns like PTC as an excuse to “temporarily” suspend services, including parts of the Cardinal, SWC, Zephyr, Vermonter, Ethan Allen, Adirondack and others. Jim Souby mentioned that the TIGER grant for the SWC may be held up significantly while a risk analysis and mitigation plan are prepared. We know that pressure from the states can force Amtrak to backtrack some of their plans, as may be happening in WA, VT and ME. But that sort of pressure must be continued. RPA is asking us to talk to our US Senators and Representatives. We should ask them to contact Amtrak directly (specifically Richard Anderson and Robert Dorsch, Vice President, Long Distance Service Line) to get straight answers about what they are planning, and to remind them that a reduced long-distance service is not what Congress has authorized. Charles Hamilton Board Member, All Aboard Washington
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