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First Phase Of California High Speed Rail Spikes To $10.6 Billion

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, January 20, 2018 10:22 AM

JPS1
Many of the high speed rails system, based on my read of their financial reports, were built with taxpayer monies.  Unlike funding for U.S. airports, the taxpayers probably did not recover the initial monies that they had sunk into high speed rail infrastructure.

You are right, the building of the rail infrastructure is tax financed as is building of airports and building and maintenance of our (German) road system. There is no payback.

I find it fair that rail infrastructure is build using taxes as all are handled almost equal. That was what I meant above.

 

As the rail infrastructure is government owned it can be used by about 150 railroad companies competing with DB. They all pay for the track use by ton-miles. This money is used for maintenance.

It is very different here. Our constitution defines Germany as a social state. Therefore public transportation is deemed as general interest.

The fares have to be considered in a way that even poor people can fully participate in daily life. These fare limits often make subsidizing with taxes necessary.
Regards, Volker

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Posted by ben on Friday, January 19, 2018 8:29 PM

BaltACD

 

 
VOLKER LANDWEHR
 
JPS1
The Japanese and French claim that one or more of their high speed rail lines are profitable.  True!  What they don't say, however, is the taxpayers ate a substantial portion of the capital expenditures for the infrastructure before turning the depreciated assets over to the operating companies.  

That is true but road system, airports are tax financed too. So it is just fair.
Regards, Volker

 

But that is not the American way.  Americans view that passenger trains - HSR and regular - have to be profitable in total.  Capital expenditure for equipment and facilities as well as right of way maintenance - EVERYTHING!

 

 

Although, they don't care that highways tend to operate at a loss.

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Posted by PJS1 on Friday, January 19, 2018 8:29 PM

VOLKER LANDWEHR
 JPS1 The Japanese and French claim that one or more of their high speed rail lines are profitable.  True!  What they don't say, however, is the taxpayers ate a substantial portion of the capital expenditures for the infrastructure before turning the depreciated assets over to the operating companies.  

That is true but road system, airports are tax financed too. So it is just fair.
Regards, Volker 

Almost all of the commercial airports in the United States are owned by a local government authority.  They are accounted for as enterprise funds, which means that they are expected to and do for the most part operate like business enterprises.  Thus the name enterprise fund.  They are expected to cover all of their costs from a variety of revenue sources.
 
Most U.S. airports have been or are funded by municipal debt that is issued by the airport authority. The debt usually consists of revenue bonds, which are serviced from the airport’s revenues, as opposed to general obligation bonds, which are serviced by the taxpayer base. 
 
If the airport cannot service its bonds, the bond holders are stuck with the default.  If a government defaults on its general obligation bonds, the taxpayers have to eat the consequences.
 
The ability to issue tax free debt means that the issuer gets financing at a lower cost than would be the case if it had to borrow fully taxable money.  However, the spread between market interest and tax free interest is not as great as some suppose.  At the close of business today the spread between 30 year investment grade corporate bonds and municipal bonds in the U.S. was approximately 9/10s of one percent, which can be a significant amount of money over time.
 
The debt issued by airport authorities is serviced for the most part by landing fees, gate fees, etc., which are recovered in ticket taxes, and a variety of franchise fees, i.e. parking, hangar, retail, etc. 
 
Many of the high speed rails system, based on my read of their financial reports, were built with taxpayer monies.  Unlike funding for U.S. airports, the taxpayers probably did not recover the initial monies that they had sunk into high speed rail infrastructure.  The accounting is a bit complex, and it is beyond the scope of this discussion. 
 

Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII

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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, January 19, 2018 5:41 PM

VOLKER LANDWEHR
 
JPS1
The Japanese and French claim that one or more of their high speed rail lines are profitable.  True!  What they don't say, however, is the taxpayers ate a substantial portion of the capital expenditures for the infrastructure before turning the depreciated assets over to the operating companies.  

That is true but road system, airports are tax financed too. So it is just fair.
Regards, Volker

But that is not the American way.  Americans view that passenger trains - HSR and regular - have to be profitable in total.  Capital expenditure for equipment and facilities as well as right of way maintenance - EVERYTHING!

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by Anonymous on Friday, January 19, 2018 3:37 PM

JPS1
The Japanese and French claim that one or more of their high speed rail lines are profitable.  True!  What they don't say, however, is the taxpayers ate a substantial portion of the capital expenditures for the infrastructure before turning the depreciated assets over to the operating companies. 

That is true but road system, airports are tax financed too. So it is just fair.
Regards, Volker

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Posted by YoHo1975 on Friday, January 19, 2018 1:43 PM
They are tunnelling under the Penninsula because the Silicon Valley towns that still think they're sleepy suburbs (see Alto, Palo) through hissy fits at above ground solutions. I suppose they could build it up the 101, but can you imagine the traffic nightmare from that retrofit? They also have to get into San Jose. And I'm not entirely sure going over the bay itself would be more earthquake prone. I mean San Andreas runs right up the center of the peninsula. They are literally tunneling into the fault zone. Plus, aren't the running the line out the Pacheo pass. More running just east of the Fault zone. Which of course is also causing what was already an expensive proposition to skyrocket in cost. And again Ben, you keep saying these short segments would be faster. THAT IS NOT TRUE! They will take more money and more time because there are pesky things like existing buildings and roads in the way. It's way easier to bulldoze a Citrus Orchard in the Valley then pay for and demolish a bunch of OC or Silicon Valley residences.
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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, January 19, 2018 7:07 AM

YoHo1975
UH, if you read the report, a large part of the cost increases has been land acquisition costs. Basically, Eminent domain costs were higher than anticipated. It's just silly to suggest LA to SD would be simpler. It would literally be harder in every conceivable way. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it cost around $67Billion on it's own.  Look at how hard it's been to get the bay area portions of the proposal managed.

A couple of items strike me with the California project and now that you mention it the emminent domain costs are excessive as well.    Why didn't they use power line easements for the majority of the route as does the proposed Dallas to Houston project.    Why not share road or highway easements?     Still unsure why they need to tunnel under mountains when you have the rapid acceleration and horsepower to weight ratio a HSR trainset has.    These are not the Swiss Alps, they are a series of minor mountain ranges in California in which most of the Class I railroads have successfully crossed with relatively minor grades.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, January 19, 2018 6:58 AM

YoHo1975
Again, the costs of some of those segments are impossibly huge. The portion from San Jose to SF (They aren't going to Oakland) is stalled and will likely never be true high speed.

Yup, guess why?    They are tunneling under three seperate mountain segments according to the news reports I have read.     I wish I could find out the distance and locations of those tunnels because that will spike the cost of a project faster than anything else.     Going up the pinnesula to SFO saves having to bridge the Earthquake prone bay or tunnel under it.....which could be costly.   If they elevate the track most of that route they can still go fast.....it's only if they share track at grade that they become speed restricted.    So that might be a get it done segment, set aside for improvement later.

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Posted by ben on Friday, January 19, 2018 6:04 AM

But, if they had started with the shorter routes they could've built them reallly quickly possibly even by now and they would start to open up, and make a profit if not at least revenue to help aide the building of the longer routes.

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Posted by YoHo1975 on Friday, January 19, 2018 1:10 AM

ben
If they had made segments and then connected them in phases, for example, starting with SD to LA and then doing LA to Bakersfield, and Bakersfield to Fresno, Fresno to Sacramento, Sacramento to Oakland, Oakland to SF. That would've been good because they would start to service HSR in different areas so that people started to like it and revenue would start to flow in to balance out the large costs of creating it.
 

 

Again, the costs of some of those segments are impossibly huge. The portion from San Jose to SF (They aren't going to Oakland) is stalled and will likely never be true high speed.

They went with a portion of the line that they felt 

1: Offered the least challenges all around to getting built and

2: could be connected into the existing infrastructure to facilitate faster service and get use out of the asset. 

If they could have gotten the other segments built, they would have.

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Posted by PJS1 on Thursday, January 18, 2018 8:47 PM

Victrola1

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) – Officials increased the cost estimate for the first phase of California’s high speed rail project by 35 percent on Tuesday, to $10.6 billion.

That would put the entire cost of the train from San Francisco to Los Angeles at roughly $67 billion, although officials said they hope to recover the newly announced costs later.......

Most cost projections for large projects don't include the cost of financing.  But servicing the debt issued to finance the project is part of the long term cost.

If the $67 billion were financed for 30 years at the current 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond rate, the ultimate cost of the project would be $96.4 billion.  The project probably will be funded from a variety of sources, so this number is a rough estimate, but it illustrates that when the cost of financing a project is included, the numbers jump dramatically.

The Japanese and French claim that one or more of their high speed rail lines are profitable.  True!  What they don't say, however, is the taxpayers ate a substantial portion of the capital expenditures for the infrastructure before turning the depreciated assets over to the operating companies. 

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Posted by Deggesty on Thursday, January 18, 2018 4:53 PM

ben
If they had made segments and then connected them in phases, for example, starting with SD to LA and then doing LA to Bakersfield, and Bakersfield to Fresno, Fresno to Sacramento, Sacramento to Oakland, Oakland to SF. That would've been good because they would start to service HSR in different areas so that people started to like it and revenue would start to flow in to balance out the large costs of creating it.
 

But, but, that's not the California way; we must go whole hog or none!Smile

Johnny

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Posted by ben on Thursday, January 18, 2018 4:47 PM
If they had made segments and then connected them in phases, for example, starting with SD to LA and then doing LA to Bakersfield, and Bakersfield to Fresno, Fresno to Sacramento, Sacramento to Oakland, Oakland to SF. That would've been good because they would start to service HSR in different areas so that people started to like it and revenue would start to flow in to balance out the large costs of creating it.
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Posted by YoHo1975 on Thursday, January 18, 2018 12:27 PM

UH, if you read the report, a large part of the cost increases has been land acquisition costs. Basically, Eminent domain costs were higher than anticipated.

It's just silly to suggest LA to SD would be simpler. It would literally be harder in every conceivable way. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it cost around $67Billion on it's own. 

Look at how hard it's been to get the bay area portions of the proposal managed.

 

If you want to look at a project that potentially could have been easier and cheaper, I think Sacramento to Oakland would have been better. The biggest question would be which right of way to use. The former SP CalP? Almost have to to hit Davis. Or CalP to Davis, then cut down to the former Sac Northern To Pittburg? But you probably couldn't even really do that. Would probably have to be CalP all the way in. Either running next to the UP or just upgrading the UP trackage and not being true HSR. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, January 18, 2018 10:36 AM

Victrola1
If say Union Pacific, or BNSF were doing a massive line project in California and costs came in this far above projections somebody would be out of a job. 

When large projects are proposed, the cost estimates that are presented to the public during the approval process are at best 'ballpark estimates' and at worst 'wild ass guesses'.  Especially when dealing with civil engineering project - the ground itself hide many surprises as the project moves forward in the world of reality.  Additionall on the financial side, the value of money does not stand still - a dollar in 2008 doesn't buy the same value of goods as a dollar in 2018 will.

BNSF & UP run into the same kinds cost overruns as governmental projects, likely with less political graft being involved.  Project Engineers of private companies have a lot of explaining to do about overrun, however, there are generally good reasons and they will not be out of a job.

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Posted by Victrola1 on Thursday, January 18, 2018 9:49 AM

If say Union Pacific, or BNSF were doing a massive line project in California and costs came in this far above projections somebody would be out of a job. 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, January 18, 2018 9:45 AM

A smaller cheaper project say like LA to San Diego would have been a better idea as a demonstration first.    Instead Big Government had to go for the gargantuan project first and hire a Cecil B Demille cast of employees to boot.   I think the end cost of the project will be far more than $67 Billion.

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First Phase Of California High Speed Rail Spikes To $10.6 Billion
Posted by Victrola1 on Thursday, January 18, 2018 8:21 AM

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) – Officials increased the cost estimate for the first phase of California’s high speed rail project by 35 percent on Tuesday, to $10.6 billion.

That would put the entire cost of the train from San Francisco to Los Angeles at roughly $67 billion, although officials said they hope to recover the newly announced costs later.......

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2018/01/16/california-high-speed-rail-cost/

 

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