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Does bad dining car experience mean Amtrak is dying?

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Posted by Anonymous on Friday, November 14, 2014 1:09 PM

The reference to CNBC took me to a dead page, i.e. the video is not available. However, even if it were, I would be suspect.  It is a made for TV news special.  I have found that most of these productions are devoid of any serious financial analysis.  

Carnival PLC is the largest cruise ship company in the world.  It operates several brands, and I am a frequent customer.  It generates a profit on its ship operations, but the returns are paltry compared to those generated by booze, shore excursions, spas, speciality restaurants, personal trainers, art auctions, etc. 

In 2013 ship operations generated $405 million of net income, excluding on board and other revenues and expenses, on revenues of $11.6 billion. 

Other revenues and expenses returned $3.1 billion on $3.6 billion of revenues, for an operating margin of 85.1 per cent, which makes the operating margin for ship operations - 10.29 per cent - look weak.

It is unclear how much of other ship operating expenses, payroll, etc. should be allocated to other revenues and expenses.  So I took the best case scenario for other revenues and expenses and the worst case scenario for operations excluding other revenues and expenses.

Clearly, other revenues and expenses generate a higher return than carrying folks around on the high seas, but to say that the carriers don't realize a profit on general operations is not supported by Carnival's financial data.  

Carnivals returns for carrying people in its ships are not great. In 2013 its total return on investment was 4.13 per cent, whilst its return on equity was 5.73 per cent.  

The returns include the other revenues and expenses.  If they were backed out of the numbers, the return on ship operations would be very poor, but that does not translate into not making any money on ship operations. Clearly the big profit generators are the other revenues. 

For comparative purposes, over the past 12 months the Class I railroads had an average return on investment of 8.22 per cent and an average return on equity of 18.24 per cent.  Clearly, investing in companies that haul freight, as opposed to people, is a better option. 

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Posted by oltmannd on Friday, November 14, 2014 12:11 PM

ROBERT WILLISON

Its hard to imagine that's thier not some profitability in cruise ships other than in  liquior and shore excursions. The average ship with 2000 to 4000 passengers. Most businesse depend on thier core business to make a profit.

 

I thought so, too, but it turns out not to be the case.

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Posted by oltmannd on Friday, November 14, 2014 12:03 PM

Sam1

 

 
oltmannd

Two comments:

One, the blog misses the whole point about Amtrak and food service. Amtrak is a LOUSY food service provider in terms of  quality vs. cost.  The hospitality industry does a much better job.  The trick is to get that expertise into Amtrak. It should improve quality and lower costs at the same time.

Two, cruise ships don't make any real money selling rooms and food. The entire ship is a "loss leader" of sorts.  The whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities. 

 

How do you know that the whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities.  Unless one has access to the cruise line books, he would not know that. 

 

Documentary on cruise ship operations I watched a while ago.  I think is was this one http://www.cnbc.com/id/29139914

 

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by schlimm on Friday, November 14, 2014 9:06 AM

Sam1

 

 
oltmannd

Two comments:

One, the blog misses the whole point about Amtrak and food service. Amtrak is a LOUSY food service provider in terms of  quality vs. cost.  The hospitality industry does a much better job.  The trick is to get that expertise into Amtrak. It should improve quality and lower costs at the same time.

Two, cruise ships don't make any real money selling rooms and food. The entire ship is a "loss leader" of sorts.  The whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities. 

 

How do you know that the whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities.  Unless one has access to the cruise line books, he would not know that. 

 

All very true.  However, the original point was that "loss leaders" are relevant only when the total enterprise or at least that niche or division is turning a profit.  With Amtrak, the LD trains lose money on every train, so having "loss leader" amenities only increases the loss (and expense to the taxpayers).

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Posted by daveklepper on Friday, November 14, 2014 4:31 AM

The NYNH&H dining car department actually made a profit during WWII and years after, into the McGinnis period, through the very high prices charged in its popular commuter-train bar cars.

When coaches were added to the Mercchants Limited, the end-of-train round-end obs had doors cut into the ends with diaphragms and became commuter train bar cars!

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Posted by dakotafred on Thursday, November 13, 2014 7:11 PM

Agree with Sam1 and Robert. Would like to see some figures.

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Posted by ROBERT WILLISON on Thursday, November 13, 2014 6:11 PM

Its hard to imagine that's thier not some profitability in cruise ships other than in  liquior and shore excursions. The average ship with 2000 to 4000 passengers. Most businesse depend on thier core business to make a profit.

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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, November 13, 2014 5:44 PM

oltmannd

Two comments:

One, the blog misses the whole point about Amtrak and food service. Amtrak is a LOUSY food service provider in terms of  quality vs. cost.  The hospitality industry does a much better job.  The trick is to get that expertise into Amtrak. It should improve quality and lower costs at the same time.

Two, cruise ships don't make any real money selling rooms and food. The entire ship is a "loss leader" of sorts.  The whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities. 

How do you know that the whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities.  Unless one has access to the cruise line books, he would not know that. 

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Posted by mogul264 on Thursday, November 13, 2014 2:17 PM

What about food service companies, such as restraunt chains, or fast-food chains for that matter? These could consider leasing dining cars or retrofitting others as a 'vehicle' per se, for their product services, and including them in those LD trainsets as an arrangement. Any of these would necessarily KEEP the standards high, or it would reflect badly on the CORPORATE name!

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, November 10, 2014 9:51 AM

blue streak 1

 

 
oltmannd

Two comments:

Two, cruise ships don't make any real money selling rooms and food. The entire ship is a "loss leader" of sorts.  The whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities.

 

 

 
Don:   +++ Gambling
 

So....maybe lounge cars need to become "casino cars"!  (except Amtrak would probably figure out a way to lose money doing that, too.)

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Monday, November 10, 2014 8:18 AM

oltmannd

Two comments:

Two, cruise ships don't make any real money selling rooms and food. The entire ship is a "loss leader" of sorts.  The whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities.

 
Don:   +++ Gambling
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Posted by ROBERT WILLISON on Monday, November 10, 2014 12:01 AM

Probably means the crew had a bad day. Amtrak might be dieing but it has little to do with your meal.

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Posted by STEVEL on Sunday, November 9, 2014 8:33 PM

In October I took the Lake Shore Lmtd, City of New Orleans, and the Crescent.  Had a Roomette on all three Trips.  Thirteen meals of which 10 were very good, three good.  The service was excellent.  The trips were my first in a roomette, It was a pleasant & relaxing way to travel.  I hope to do more trips in the future.

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, November 4, 2014 6:16 AM

Two comments:

One, the blog misses the whole point about Amtrak and food service. Amtrak is a LOUSY food service provider in terms of  quality vs. cost.  The hospitality industry does a much better job.  The trick is to get that expertise into Amtrak. It should improve quality and lower costs at the same time.

Two, cruise ships don't make any real money selling rooms and food. The entire ship is a "loss leader" of sorts.  The whole profit comes from selling alcohol and port activities.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by Deggesty on Monday, November 3, 2014 10:30 PM

Quite true. You do not sell an item for less than your cost unless you are confident that the buyer will buy something else that will provide more profit than the loss. Else, in real life, you will go out of business.

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Posted by schlimm on Monday, November 3, 2014 10:20 PM

"Most hotel and cruise line managers understand the concept of a loss leader, and realize that food & beverage service is meant to enhance overall revenue by making for an attractive package of accommodations — not to serve as a profit center in and of itself. But for whatever reason, those in Congress who hold Amtrak’s purse strings don’t seem to understand this."

Apparently the author of this blog piece does not understand loss leader, either.    A loss leader (to gain or enhance the other lines) is only applicable when the service as a whole is profitable. Otherwise the loss from that component only adds to the overall loss.

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, November 3, 2014 9:35 PM

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, September 15, 2014 12:51 PM

schlimm

daveklepper

With existing services, what are the nearest Amtrak ral stations to Casper, Wyoming, and Nashville, TN, and what are the driving times by car?

Dave:  Not a good picture.  For Caspar, the closest station would be Denver, about four hours by car.  For Nashville, looks like Atlanta, about 3.5-4.0 hours by car.

Carbondale IL is closer than Atlanta - and sorta kinda in the "right" direction.  It's about a 3 hour drive.  Denver to Casper is about four hours.  To drive the whole thing is 19 hours, so the train would "save" about 12 hours of driving.

Depart Carbondale at 3 AM, arrive Denver 8 AM of following day.  30 hours of train.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by Overmod on Sunday, September 14, 2014 2:27 PM

schlimm
Dave Klepper, "Come on down!"

I think Dave was making a hypothetical example -- surely he wouldn't be flying from Jerusalem to Nashville on a special Opryland promotion ticket, and then switching directly to Amtrak...  ;-}

Does open up a potential discussion, though, about how different customers will 'value' access to Amtrak -- for instance, is it minimum trip time, vs. minimum out-of-pocket cost, vs. convenience, etc.

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Posted by schlimm on Sunday, September 14, 2014 9:30 AM

Now that Overmod and I have completed the travel connection challenge quiz, where are you going?  

Dave Klepper, "Come on down!"

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Posted by Overmod on Sunday, September 14, 2014 2:56 AM

schlimm
... if he's heading to Chicago (seems a fair guess, since he also mentioned Caspar, WY) then going to Dyersburg/Newbern, TN would be a better choice

I was going to mention that but wimped out.  Probably cheaper, too (I was too lazy to have Julie check for me), and if he's parking the situation is likely to be easier -- although I've never carefully looked at the station arrangements there.  One note:  it's getting late by the time the northbound train gets to Dyersburg, with perhaps little to do while you wait.  .(vs. it not being very far even on foot from Beale St. to Central Station...  ;-})

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Posted by schlimm on Saturday, September 13, 2014 7:01 PM

Overmod

schlimm
For Nashville, looks like Atlanta, about 3.5-4.0 hours by car.

Why not Memphis, less than 200 miles, seldom takes me more than 3 hours?

There's going to be a point where communities east and south of Nashville are indeed closer (in travel time) to service coming up through Atlanta, and it might help to know exactly 'where' in that area Mr. Klepper means.

On the other hand, for anything more than an academic question, it matters where you're going.  If to Chicago or the West, the Memphis connection is likely to be shorter/quicker; if you're going to the Northeast, the slight additional trip time to Atlanta would pay off dramatically...

Good point, but from what I know of Dave, he'd probably be heading to the east coast.  if he's heading to Chicago (seems a fair guess, since he also mentioned Caspar, WY) then going to Dyersburg/Newbern, TN would be a better choice.  It's only 178 miles vs Memphis 212 and takes 2:45.

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Posted by Overmod on Saturday, September 13, 2014 5:07 PM

schlimm
For Nashville, looks like Atlanta, about 3.5-4.0 hours by car.

Why not Memphis, less than 200 miles, seldom takes me more than 3 hours?

There's going to be a point where communities east and south of Nashville are indeed closer (in travel time) to service coming up through Atlanta, and it might help to know exactly 'where' in that area Mr. Klepper means.

On the other hand, for anything more than an academic question, it matters where you're going.  If to Chicago or the West, the Memphis connection is likely to be shorter/quicker; if you're going to the Northeast, the slight additional trip time to Atlanta would pay off dramatically...

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Posted by schlimm on Saturday, September 13, 2014 4:06 PM

daveklepper

With existing services, what are the nearest Amtrak ral stations to Casper, Wyoming, and Nashville, TN, and what are the driving times by car?

Dave:  Not a good picture.  For Caspar, the closest station would be Denver, about four hours by car.  For Nashville, looks like Atlanta, about 3.5-4.0 hours by car.

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Posted by daveklepper on Saturday, September 13, 2014 3:27 PM

With existing services, what are the nearest Amtrak ral stations to Casper, Wyoming, and Nashville, TN, and what are the driving times by car?

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Posted by schlimm on Saturday, September 13, 2014 8:35 AM

Generally, taking anti-coagulant medications, even Warfarin does not interfere with flying.  In fact, anti-coagulants are prescribed for folks making long flights (over four hours) to prevent deep vein thrombosis.   Of course, your wife's case may have been different for special circumstances.

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Posted by parlordome on Saturday, September 13, 2014 8:19 AM

Less cost for gas-guzzling motorhomes, individual drivers and their benefits packages and fully wheel-chair accessible accommodations, beds and meals? Anyone can break a leg as my wife did in Phila. & the only way home to St. Louis (flying was medically impossible owing to anti-coagulant etc.) was Amtrak's accessible bedrooms. They brought meals. It was perfect and prevented trying to find an intermediate-care place to stay after a week in the hospital. But, the Viewliner bedroom was far superior to Superliner's which we used during the day from Chicago to St. Louis. It's bedroom had narrower berths, no ladder to reach the upper one, no place for me to sit except in the wheelchair (because my wife needed the facing seat for her leg), no separate wheelcahir-accessible bathroom with shower, and small windows. 

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, August 28, 2014 8:47 AM

oltmannd

But, I don't kid myself about how useful they are or that there is any rational justification for their existence.   In the grand scheme of intercity transport in the US, they really don't amount to much.

However, since they are a political realilty, it would be really nice if Amtrak would attempt to make them as relevant and useful and economically efficient as possible

If they were funded under SS, Medicare, ADA, NEH or got a living museum grant, that would be just fine.  But unfortunately most of the LD trains need so much subsidy that they use well over half of the Amtrak subsidy to provide service to few people who have the good fortune to live near a city served.

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Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, August 28, 2014 8:30 AM

I thnk that too often we let the tail wag the dog w.r.t. LD trains.

We start with:  We need to justify the existence of the trains

and that leads to the laundry list of things they can do such as:

-connect rural areas to urban areas

-help boost local economies of towns on the route

-provide transport for those who can't/won't fly or drive

etc, etc.

That's backwards.  You should start with the problem statement and work toward a solution.

If it turns out the Amtrak LD trains are the best solution to the list of problems, so be it.  But working backwards is intellectually dishonest.

I like the LD trains.  I'm glad they're around.  I know they are a political reality. But, I don't kid myself about how useful they are or that there is any rational justification for their existence.   In the grand scheme of intercity transport in the US, they really don't amount to much.

However, since they are a political realilty, it would be really nice if Amtrak would attempt to make them as relevant and useful and economically efficient as possible and not just run them as historical tributes to 1950s streamliners or kinetic art.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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