Just saw a report on CBS evening news stating that airlines are reducing their daily inventory during the Thanksgiving holidays. I believe that it may have stated a reduction of 570,000/day and raising fares 20 - 40 % from 2010 but maybe someone else has another figure.
This may point to a last minute rush on Amtrak during the Nov 18 - 28th holiday season. Checked NEC & several routes but found no sell outs yet except the some of the expected sleeper spaces.
This is what deregulation will do for you. Company investors want return not profits nor product. So, you don't do the job you say you are incorporated or charterd to do.
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A quick check of Amtrak Reservations. Note some these numbers compare favorably with last year but do not have number extra sectionss run last year. There may be more scheduled closer to Thanksgiving. Several of NEC extras use conventional Amfleet and others on Sun Commuter equipment from MARC and NJ Transit. Wonder if NJ transit might allow ACES trains sets to be combined and used?
1. Bos - NYP 4 extra sections Wed, 5 extra Sat and Sun. Several trips already sold out.
2. Nyp - WASH 4 extra Wed 5 extra Sat, 10 extra Sun including some commuter equipment trips. Only 1 or 2 sold out so far.
3. SEA - PDX. 2 extra Wed, 1 Thur, 1 Sat, 2 Sun with some extra buses added in already. About 1/3 already sold out?
4. East long distance appears not sold out ?
henry6 This is what deregulation will do for you. Company investors want return not profits nor product. So, you don't do the job you say you are incorporated or charterd to do.
A viable business adjusts it capacity to meet its expected demand. Even publicly owned electric utilities follow this model. Ultimately, increasing or decreasing capacity is a function of real demand, i.e. what passengers (customers) are willing to pay for. Unlike Amtrak, the nation's airlines, as well as intercity bus companies, have to cover all of their costs.
In 2010 the Fortune 500 airlines, e.g. Delta, American, United, etc. had median returns of 1.1% on sales, .6% on assets, and 7.4% on equity. Through September 2011 the nations major carriers had a median return on sales of 2.02%. If the fares were increased by 20%, as claimed in another post, the return on sales would jump to a blistering 2.42%. For comparative purposes, in 2010, the Fortune 500 companies had a median return on sales of slightly more than 5%.
If Amtrak had to go it alone, which it should, it would be out of business, with the possible exception of several of the high density corridors. However, as long as it can tap into the deep pockets of the federal government, irrespective of the fact that said government (we the people) is in super deep debt, it can ignore demand models, including the willingness of its passengers to pay for the service, and keep telling the nation how vital it is to its well being.
As of today (November 2nd) the three Amtrak trains that serve Texas (the Texas Eagle, Sunset Limited, and Heartland Flyer) appear to have plenty of space for the Thanksgiving holiday. The only space that is sold out is lower level seating on #22 on the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
Sam1 you are correct LD trains this year appear not to be selling out on the east coast as well. Will check later this week.
A few hours ago Amtrak released a news report partially listing their plans for Thanksgiving/. Have not checked to see if more NEC trips scheduled but they stated more trips in the midwest, So Cal, No Cal and PNW + NEC Details will be released Nov 7 with special schedules.
Amtrakk announced 11 extra Cascade trips over Thanksgiving;
A quick check of east coast trains shows space sold out and later open. Appears that either pass are changing plans or Amtrak is enforcing no pays off reservations. Ony consistent sell outs are Capitols LL coach and some sleeper space. Florida trains open except some Meteor sleepers space. No business class avaiable on Carolinian Tu - Mo.
Anyone who needs reservation suggest check after 2 - 3 AM and space may be open then. Aso these sell outs are end - end only.
With their all-rservation policy there won't be chaos, but possibly some dissapointed travelers.
The USA got rid of its streetcars in general and now is putting them back at huge expense comparitively. Yes, I do think Amtrak, even long distance, is a necessity. Others may think differently, but if the system were dismembered, I predict that 40 or 50 years later, it would be put back at huge expense.
I experience the best in the current state of the art low floor air-conditioned articulated mu capable streetcars (pardon, light rail vehicles to be politically correct.) I can close my eyes and the sensation is the same as riding a well-maintained 1940's (design from 1935-1936) PCC car on smooth track. Open my eyes and I am in a different city with huge windows making sightseeing a lot easier, and of course the air-conditioning beats a hot summer.
So it can be with the best that Amtrak or the future can offer in comparison with Super Chief and El Capitan. Except that the Acela is of course much faster. But it isn't long distance.
I think any American who has not ridden across country from coast to coast by train has missed something very very important in his or her life.
For those who are interested at Amtrak's web site under timetables you can find special timetables for thanksgiving period each day for NEC, Empire, & Keystone routes.
A check of sold outs has many sold out at 2100 but fewer at 0300 EST
The only Chaos I expect will be whatever location in the US gets a major weather event. Happens almost every year but 2010 was not bad.
Reservations in the east & midwest seem to be fleshing out. On Wedensdays most business class sold out and on Sunday most business class sold out and on the NEC regionals the mid day trips are sold out but Acela still has openings (some business class sold out. An interesting item is still silver service still not sold out except business classes. Wash - Clt mostly sold out Crescent and Carolinian.
A quick glance at western trains has most lower level coachs sold out ( anyone have any speculation as to why ? I think maybe passengers who know think that there will be less back and forth traffic being on the lower level ?? ). Some end to end sleepers sold out.
Cascades trips have about 60% trains sold out.
From Railpace hot news
CHICAGO AMTRAK TRAINS SUPER-SIZED FOR HOLIDAYS: Amtrak is operating all available railcars and locomotives on trains to and from the Chicago area in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday travel season. starting today the historic Amtrak “Great Dome” rail car will provide a unique opportunity to experience city and prairie views to and from Chicago as it adds extra seating capacity to super-size the busy trains. . The dome car is scheduled to operate on the following Lincoln Service, Carl Sandburg/Illinois Zephyr, Wolverine Service and Illini/Saluki routes to and from St. Louis, Quincy, Detroit/Pontiac and Carbondale on the following dates: Trains 301 & 304 on Nov. 17, Nov. 19 and Nov. 25, Trains 303 & 306 on Nov. 18 and Nov. 26, Trains 381 & 382 on Nov. 21, Train 305 on Nov. 22, Trains 300 & 352 on Nov. 23, Train 351 on Nov. 24, Train 393 on Nov. 27 and Train 390 on Nov. 28. . Food service will be available in the dome car on Nov. 23, 24 and 26. for this year’s Thanksgiving travel.
Does anyone know if this means that the standby Horizon cars in New Orleans will be shipped to CHI to flesh out the CHI trains?
To make more cars available for other Capitol corridor trains- Amtrak is operating a Caltrain set RT from San Jose - Sacremento on WED. Trains 542 & 553. Leaves SJC 1620.
Most mid day NEC regional trains sold out wed and Sun. Still Acela 1st class and some Business class available during those time slots
The Texas Eagle was sold out as of this morning (Sunday, November 20th) on Wednesday between Austin, TX and Dallas, TX, except for a family room for $133. The train had seats for a Sunday return. There were seats both ways for Thursday and Saturday. Thus, for someone who wanted to be in Dallas for a Thanksgiving evening with the family, he or she could travel on Thursday and return on Saturday or Sunday.
The Heartland Fly had seats north of Fort Worth for Wednesday and Sunday. And the Sunset Limited had seats on Tuesday from San Antonio to El Paso with a return on Saturday. Because the Sunset only runs three days a week in each direction, one would have to leave San Antonio early Tuesday morning to arrive in El Paso in time for Thanksgiving dinner, which makes a three times a week train appear even more ridiculous. From Austin, one would have to take the train on Monday evening to get an early Tuesday morning connection to El Paso.
The cost of a roundtrip coach fare from Temple to El Paso was shown as $324. Had a person booked a trip 21 days in advance, the cost of a flight on Southwest Airlines from Austin would have been $264, although if they had waited until the last minute, the cost would be approximately $545. The non-stop flying time to El. Paso from Austin is 1 hour and 40 minutes. The train time from Temple to El Paso is 24 hours and 32 minutes, lengthened by the long layover in San Antonio.
I live in Georgetown, TX, which is approximately 35 miles north of Austin. If I am traveling by air, I fly out of Austin. However, if I am traveling by Amtrak, I travel out of Temple. This why I reference Temple or Austin.
Tuesday only
A check of Tuesday's reservations has most of the Tuesday originating LD train's seats sold out. A quick estimate shows the Long distance trains 80% sold out which includes Carolinian and Palmetto.
Short distance NEC routes have about 35% trains sold out . Business class about 80% sold out. Acela still has almost all train's first class available; Downeaster just a couple train's business class sold out.
On the west coast almost all trains still have seats except for Cascades Talgos which are all sold out. am wondering what equipment is going to be used on extra Cascades trains WED and SUN,.
For full holiday period California has announced that it is adding 700 extra seats on Sacremento - Bakersfield, or 35% increase of seats. 3200 Extra seats on surfliners San Luis Obispo -- San Diego; 500 extra seats on Capitol corridor.
I would have liked a comparsion of available seat miles vs normal.
There are no figures for the east coast or Chicago trips.
Wedensday only:
LD trains for WED suddenly almost all east coast trains from NE originations sold out including some surprizes. Florida trains sold out WASH - ORL and SS sold out to MIA. Crescent south of Atlanta not sold out in coach but is in sleepers. CHI outbound LD mostly sold out but intermediate destinations not checked. NOL not sold out.
NEC mostly sold out after 0900 WED even ALB and NH - SPG. PHL - HAR all open.
C'HI short hauls still open.
Cascades all talgos sold out except early morning each way.
Capitol corridor, San Joquin, and Surfliners still have seats.
Appears that AMTRAK will have a very high revenue Pass miles
Sam1 In 2010 the Fortune 500 airlines, e.g. Delta, American, United, etc. had median returns of 1.1% on sales, .6% on assets, and 7.4% on equity. Through September 2011 the nations major carriers had a median return on sales of 2.02%. If the fares were increased by 20%, as claimed in another post, the return on sales would jump to a blistering 2.42%. For comparative purposes, in 2010, the Fortune 500 companies had a median return on sales of slightly more than 5%.
Maybe I'm confused by your terminology, or maybe I'm missing some context, but you seem to be saying that if an airline sells a $100 ticket it earns $2.02 cents on average, and that if it were able to sell the same ticket for $120 it would earn only $2.42. Surely that's not what you meant.
(Seems to me the true figure depends on the elasticity of demand for tickets, which is impossible to know for certain unless you actually experiment with raising the price 20%.)
ecoli Sam1: In 2010 the Fortune 500 airlines, e.g. Delta, American, United, etc. had median returns of 1.1% on sales, .6% on assets, and 7.4% on equity. Through September 2011 the nations major carriers had a median return on sales of 2.02%. If the fares were increased by 20%, as claimed in another post, the return on sales would jump to a blistering 2.42%. For comparative purposes, in 2010, the Fortune 500 companies had a median return on sales of slightly more than 5%. Maybe I'm confused by your terminology, or maybe I'm missing some context, but you seem to be saying that if an airline sells a $100 ticket it earns $2.02 cents on average, and that if it were able to sell the same ticket for $120 it would earn only $2.42. Surely that's not what you meant. (Seems to me the true figure depends on the elasticity of demand for tickets, which is impossible to know for certain unless you actually experiment with raising the price 20%.)
Sam1: In 2010 the Fortune 500 airlines, e.g. Delta, American, United, etc. had median returns of 1.1% on sales, .6% on assets, and 7.4% on equity. Through September 2011 the nations major carriers had a median return on sales of 2.02%. If the fares were increased by 20%, as claimed in another post, the return on sales would jump to a blistering 2.42%. For comparative purposes, in 2010, the Fortune 500 companies had a median return on sales of slightly more than 5%.
1.1% of sales revenue is one.one penny on each sales dollar. This was the return for the Fortune 500 airlines for the year stated. If all the commercial airlines with revenues of more than $20 million are taken into consideration, they earned an average of 2.02 cents or 2.02% on every sales dollar. Multiplying 2.02 times 1.20 (an increase of 20 per cent) equals 2.42 cents for each sales dollar. And multiplying 2.42 cents times 100 equals $2.42 for each $100 of sales revenue. If a commercial airline in the United States sells a $100 ticket, it earns or carries to the bottom line (net income) $2.02 or two dollars and two cents on average.
As of the end of September the United States had 13 airlines with revenues of $20 million or more. Five of the carriers had sufficiently high sales to place them in the Fortune 500, which is compiled by revenues, and is not the same as the S&P 500, which is compiled by capitalization.
Whether the carriers could raise their fare by 20% is another issue. Whether a carrier could raise its fares at all, let alone 20%, which was just for illustrative purposes, would depend on its pricing power in the market place. Although fares have increased substantially over the past two years, they have been raised in small increments. The airline business is very competitive. On more than one occasion one of the carriers has attempted to raise its fares, only to have to rescind the increase because the other carriers did not follow suit. For those carriers that have to compete directly with Southwest Airlines, it (Southwest) sets the fares for the route in question.
Sam1 ecoli: Sam1: In 2010 the Fortune 500 airlines, e.g. Delta, American, United, etc. had median returns of 1.1% on sales, .6% on assets, and 7.4% on equity. Through September 2011 the nations major carriers had a median return on sales of 2.02%. If the fares were increased by 20%, as claimed in another post, the return on sales would jump to a blistering 2.42%. For comparative purposes, in 2010, the Fortune 500 companies had a median return on sales of slightly more than 5%. Maybe I'm confused by your terminology, or maybe I'm missing some context, but you seem to be saying that if an airline sells a $100 ticket it earns $2.02 cents on average, and that if it were able to sell the same ticket for $120 it would earn only $2.42. Surely that's not what you meant. (Seems to me the true figure depends on the elasticity of demand for tickets, which is impossible to know for certain unless you actually experiment with raising the price 20%.) 1.1% of sales revenue is one.one penny on each sales dollar. This was the return for the Fortune 500 airlines for the year stated. If all the commercial airlines with revenues of more than $20 million are taken into consideration, they earned an average of 2.02 cents or 2.02% on every sales dollar. Multiplying 2.02 times 1.20 (an increase of 20 per cent) equals 2.42 cents for each sales dollar. And multiplying 2.42 cents times 100 equals $2.42 for each $100 of sales revenue. If a commercial airline in the United States sells a $100 ticket, it earns or carries to the bottom line (net income) $2.02 or two dollars and two cents on average. As of the end of September the United States had 13 airlines with revenues of $20 million or more. Five of the carriers had sufficiently high sales to place them in the Fortune 500, which is compiled by revenues, and is not the same as the S&P 500, which is compiled by capitalization. Whether the carriers could raise their fare by 20% is another issue. Whether a carrier could raise its fares at all, let alone 20%, which was just for illustrative purposes, would depend on its pricing power in the market place. Although fares have increased substantially over the past two years, they have been raised in small increments. The airline business is very competitive. On more than one occasion one of the carriers has attempted to raise its fares, only to have to rescind the increase because the other carriers did not follow suit. For those carriers that have to compete directly with Southwest Airlines, it (Southwest) sets the fares for the route in question.
ecoli: Sam1: In 2010 the Fortune 500 airlines, e.g. Delta, American, United, etc. had median returns of 1.1% on sales, .6% on assets, and 7.4% on equity. Through September 2011 the nations major carriers had a median return on sales of 2.02%. If the fares were increased by 20%, as claimed in another post, the return on sales would jump to a blistering 2.42%. For comparative purposes, in 2010, the Fortune 500 companies had a median return on sales of slightly more than 5%. Maybe I'm confused by your terminology, or maybe I'm missing some context, but you seem to be saying that if an airline sells a $100 ticket it earns $2.02 cents on average, and that if it were able to sell the same ticket for $120 it would earn only $2.42. Surely that's not what you meant. (Seems to me the true figure depends on the elasticity of demand for tickets, which is impossible to know for certain unless you actually experiment with raising the price 20%.)
While I agree that 2.02 * 1.2 = 2.42, I don't think that's the correct answer to the question, "What would happen to the 2.02% return on sales if airlines raised their fares by a hypothetical 20%?" Suppose an airline sells a single $100 ticket with $97.98 going to expenses and $2.02 going to the bottom line. Raising the price to $120 does not in itself cause the expenses to change, so now $120-97.98=$22.02 goes to the bottom line, which is a return of 22.02/120=18.35%.
ecoli Sam1: ecoli: Sam1: In 2010 the Fortune 500 airlines, e.g. Delta, American, United, etc. had median returns of 1.1% on sales, .6% on assets, and 7.4% on equity. Through September 2011 the nations major carriers had a median return on sales of 2.02%. If the fares were increased by 20%, as claimed in another post, the return on sales would jump to a blistering 2.42%. For comparative purposes, in 2010, the Fortune 500 companies had a median return on sales of slightly more than 5%. Maybe I'm confused by your terminology, or maybe I'm missing some context, but you seem to be saying that if an airline sells a $100 ticket it earns $2.02 cents on average, and that if it were able to sell the same ticket for $120 it would earn only $2.42. Surely that's not what you meant. (Seems to me the true figure depends on the elasticity of demand for tickets, which is impossible to know for certain unless you actually experiment with raising the price 20%.) 1.1% of sales revenue is one.one penny on each sales dollar. This was the return for the Fortune 500 airlines for the year stated. If all the commercial airlines with revenues of more than $20 million are taken into consideration, they earned an average of 2.02 cents or 2.02% on every sales dollar. Multiplying 2.02 times 1.20 (an increase of 20 per cent) equals 2.42 cents for each sales dollar. And multiplying 2.42 cents times 100 equals $2.42 for each $100 of sales revenue. If a commercial airline in the United States sells a $100 ticket, it earns or carries to the bottom line (net income) $2.02 or two dollars and two cents on average. As of the end of September the United States had 13 airlines with revenues of $20 million or more. Five of the carriers had sufficiently high sales to place them in the Fortune 500, which is compiled by revenues, and is not the same as the S&P 500, which is compiled by capitalization. Whether the carriers could raise their fare by 20% is another issue. Whether a carrier could raise its fares at all, let alone 20%, which was just for illustrative purposes, would depend on its pricing power in the market place. Although fares have increased substantially over the past two years, they have been raised in small increments. The airline business is very competitive. On more than one occasion one of the carriers has attempted to raise its fares, only to have to rescind the increase because the other carriers did not follow suit. For those carriers that have to compete directly with Southwest Airlines, it (Southwest) sets the fares for the route in question. While I agree that 2.02 * 1.2 = 2.42, I don't think that's the correct answer to the question, "What would happen to the 2.02% return on sales if airlines raised their fares by a hypothetical 20%?" Suppose an airline sells a single $100 ticket with $97.98 going to expenses and $2.02 going to the bottom line. Raising the price to $120 does not in itself cause the expenses to change, so now $120-97.98=$22.02 goes to the bottom line, which is a return of 22.02/120=18.35%.
Sam1: ecoli: Sam1: In 2010 the Fortune 500 airlines, e.g. Delta, American, United, etc. had median returns of 1.1% on sales, .6% on assets, and 7.4% on equity. Through September 2011 the nations major carriers had a median return on sales of 2.02%. If the fares were increased by 20%, as claimed in another post, the return on sales would jump to a blistering 2.42%. For comparative purposes, in 2010, the Fortune 500 companies had a median return on sales of slightly more than 5%. Maybe I'm confused by your terminology, or maybe I'm missing some context, but you seem to be saying that if an airline sells a $100 ticket it earns $2.02 cents on average, and that if it were able to sell the same ticket for $120 it would earn only $2.42. Surely that's not what you meant. (Seems to me the true figure depends on the elasticity of demand for tickets, which is impossible to know for certain unless you actually experiment with raising the price 20%.) 1.1% of sales revenue is one.one penny on each sales dollar. This was the return for the Fortune 500 airlines for the year stated. If all the commercial airlines with revenues of more than $20 million are taken into consideration, they earned an average of 2.02 cents or 2.02% on every sales dollar. Multiplying 2.02 times 1.20 (an increase of 20 per cent) equals 2.42 cents for each sales dollar. And multiplying 2.42 cents times 100 equals $2.42 for each $100 of sales revenue. If a commercial airline in the United States sells a $100 ticket, it earns or carries to the bottom line (net income) $2.02 or two dollars and two cents on average. As of the end of September the United States had 13 airlines with revenues of $20 million or more. Five of the carriers had sufficiently high sales to place them in the Fortune 500, which is compiled by revenues, and is not the same as the S&P 500, which is compiled by capitalization. Whether the carriers could raise their fare by 20% is another issue. Whether a carrier could raise its fares at all, let alone 20%, which was just for illustrative purposes, would depend on its pricing power in the market place. Although fares have increased substantially over the past two years, they have been raised in small increments. The airline business is very competitive. On more than one occasion one of the carriers has attempted to raise its fares, only to have to rescind the increase because the other carriers did not follow suit. For those carriers that have to compete directly with Southwest Airlines, it (Southwest) sets the fares for the route in question.
If a business could raise its price by 20 per cent without any change in the expenses, then the return on sales would increase by the increase in the sales price.
Anyone familiar with the airline business knows that the airlines don't have the pricing power to raise their prices by 20 per cent in one fell swoop. Moreover, if the company could hold its expenses constant, it would not have a need to raise its fares by 20 per cent. Over time airline fares have krept up, primarily to rising fuel costs, but the increases have been incremental. At the end of the day, the returns for the airlines have been paltry.
As pointed out in the original post, in addition to the return on sales, the airlines also generate a return on assets and a return on equity. The management and the shareholders are most concerned about the return on equity. Accordingly, a one or two per cent increase in fares, which might be sustainable, would have a multiplier effect on the other returns, especially the return on equity.
The airline business, unlike passenger rail, is amongst the most competitive businesses in the world. The margins are razor thin, which means they barely cover their expenses. However, if they are managed well, as is the case with Southwest Airlines, they can provide their owners with a decent albeit modest return on their investment.
Your are reading my post out of context, which was to correct a misstatement of fact in another post. At the end of the day, the profitability of the airlines has nothing to do with passenger rail, other than to say that many rail enthusiasts misstate airline facts and subsidies as an argument for more subsidies for passenger rail or to claim an unfair advantage for the airlines.
Sunday only: Sold outs
1. NEC BOS - NYP RTs sold out after 0900 until 2100 except for a few exceptions.
2. Same for WASH - NYP Few WASH - NYP still have openings
3. SPG - New Haven 1600 on
4. NYP - ALBANY RTs after 0800
5. WASH - CLT sold out
6. Wash - SAV both ways
7. WASH - CHI only Capitol available
8. Lake shore sold out both ways
9. SEA - Portland All except first trip of day and last extra train. Even Coast starlight sold out.
Amtrak released a preliminarty Thanksgiving 2011 number of ~ 740,000 passengers up from 704,446 from 2010. So this is ~ 35,554 more than 2010 or up 2.2%. some factors that affected these numbers
1. 48 hr loss of Cascades service Seattle - Vancouver, BC due to mudslides north of Seattle 4 RTs maybe ~ 800 passengers.
2. Empire Builder -- Same mudslide + 1 CHI RT Cancelled maybe ~ 600 Pass
3. Mainly good weather for second straight holiday period.
4. approximately 23 more Amfleet and 11 Superliners available due to ARRA rebuilding but 6 - 8 cars out of service due to 2010 wreck damage.
5. One Lincoln service train in St. Louis had 300+ passengers boarding.
6. NEC was operated with same number of regular and exra trains as 2010 including commuter train equipment.
7. There must have been a better marketing plan as the increase cannot be fully applied just from more cars available.
http://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=Page&pagename=am%2FLayout&p=1237608345018&cid=1237608337144
Go to news release of Thanksgiving ridership.
AMTRAK released its official Thanksgiving ridership. Several points shown as Wedensday and Sunday's numbers almost the same. Almost every rooute had increases in ridership from 2010. Full report on link below,select latest news releases, then Thanksgiving ridership best ever.
Since Acelas were mostly sold out in 2010 and 2011 it had the smallest increases ( +0.5% ) and we can expect the same results until extra Acela cars are delivered ? Other increases were more.
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