Amtrak announced that Mar 2011 up 5.5% over 2010 and 6 months of FY 2011 up 5.9% over FY 2010. 17 straight months of growth. A point was that March 2010 was up 13.5% over March 2009. So for Mar 2009 to Mar 2011 a growth of 19.8%.
Acela up 2.9% for month and 8.4% for FY. NEC up 3.5% for month and 1.9% for FY.
Short distance 7.9% month and 7.7% FY Long Dist 3.8% month and 5.3% for FY
Individual train performance was severely impacted by the bad weather. Routes affected were Cascades, Piedmont, Empire Builder, and maybe others. Now for breakdown.
Short Haul
Piedmont up 62% partially due to 16 more RTs for the month due to second train only operating 3 days of week. with that factored in a 26% increase for 1 RT. Blue Water +25%,, Lynchburg +23%, Carbondale +19%, Newport News +16%.Downeaster +14%, Albany 14%, even Lincoln service up 13% which also had Maintenance upgrade cancellations. Cascades - 5% due to mudslide cancellations. Eathan Allen -3% probably due to Vermont RR continuing delays. All the listed routes had similar numbers for 6 month of FY except Piedmonts up 95%
Long Haul:
Silver Star, Capitol limited, SW Chief, City of NO, Texas Eagle, Sunset, Lake Shore Limited, Crescent all up around 10%. Empire Builder - 4%, Cal Z - 3%, Coast Starlight - 10% all due to weather cancellations.
Conclusions.
Amtrak's fleet plan has been built on a 2% compounded growth rate. The systemwide growth rate of 5.9% this FY if it continues may strain Amtrak's ability to haul the demand until the ordered rolling stock begins to arrive (?).Since 2000 the compounded growth has been about 3.3%. (Only an estimate as I don't have a compound calculator). Looking at the last 17 months the average growth rate per month is about 5.5%? If the weather will co-operate maybe the growth rate in April will show what to expect.
Note March 2011 second highest month of ridership only exceeded by July 2010.. ( 156,000 less)
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