The ability of Amtrak this Thanksgiving to haul passengers was severly taxed due to lack of equipment. After checking several Amtrak documents some conclusions may be somewhat apparent. We will start with the 2011 – 2015 5 year plan dated Sep 2010. Amtrak states that only the economic downturn has prevented chronic seating capacity problems.
1. Amtrak has 1450 pass cars and states 50 car / year needed so (1450/50 = 29 years desired economic life of cars).
2. State of good repair (SOGR) rates of passenger cars is 91% FY 2010 and desired to be 97% by 2015.
3. Fleet passenger car plan overhauls under regular FY budgeting is expected to be about $190M / year same as FY 2010.
4. The ARRA rebuilds are supposed to be finished by Feb 2011 but late deliveries of the HVAC 404 module has delayed these rebuilds so Amtrak has asked for an ARRA waiver to complete the cars later.
5. Pass car acquisitions are listed at about $200M / FY budget.
6. Amtrak has unfunded needs for additional pass cars of $433M – FY 2011 and approximately $1B in following years.
7. Amtrak has 22 NPCU (F-40s) and expects to build retired AEM-DCs to Cabbage cars as well. There is mention of expanding their baggage service .
8. Again there is both a need for additional Acelas that Amtrak may buy (2-?)since Amtrak has track capacity available and additional cars for the existing Acela sets. Replacement of the present Acelas requires specifications to be issued by late 2013 for deliveries by 2020 .
9. Amtrak wants to budget $55M / yr for diesel locos (20 yr life) as they will shortly have 100% of present locos and motors in SOGR.
10. Amtrak’s base line total passenger revenue projections assumes approximately a $ 100M growth thru each of the next five years as well as total revenue. Total expenses increase the same so total operating loss around $1.3B for each year 2010 - 2015.
11. Ridership expected to increase .6M – 1.0M / year.
From the 5 year preliminary summary metrics plan the following is noted!
12. Revenue train miles expected to remain same 2010 at 37.5M / year thru 2015. This speaks (ie Not available) to the idea that Amtrak will initiate any new trains so don’t cry later if no funding for additional equipment is not available.
13. Available seat miles were 12,033M in 2010 And only increases to 12,214M 2011 – 2015.
14. The figure for item #13 indicates Amtrak does not have funds to increase seat miles any higher until financing for additional cars is secured and appropriated. Call and write your congressman. Amtrak appears trying to increase passenger miles by more sophisticated scheduling of passenger cars? Call your congressman.
15. The FY 2010 order for 130 single level cars has been addressed as well as the 70 electric motors. As well 70 Bi-level cars and 50 diesel locos is listed as needed for FY 2011. However all the order completions initiations will require some kind of funding. All the seat mile, train mile, passenger mile figures are listed as if no financing except internal is available. Remember FY 2011 funding is on a continuing resolution as of today. So no longer range planning is possible. The plans also envision reducing the operating ratio 1.54 FY 2010 to 1.45 FY 2015.
Baggage cars. Must have state-of-the-art 125 MPH baggage cars.
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
...and AEM7 cabbages! (at least they are lighter than F40s....)
No additional seat-miles in the plan? These guys are just playing with a big trainset... (well, at least theirs runs better than mine)
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
If you have AEM7 cabbages, doesn't that solve the 125 MPF baggage-car problem, or are there not enough old AEM7 DC's to go around to cover the Florida trains and other LD trains interoperating on the NEC?
oltmannd ...and AEM7 cabbages! (at least they are lighter than F40s....) No additional seat-miles in the plan? These guys are just playing with a big trainset... (well, at least theirs runs better than mine)
With the present equipment (including rebuilds) there is no way to increase seat miles very much if at all.
IMHO this plan is all about the possible no growth option looking AMTRAK in the face. Statements all over the reports seem to imply that all planning is based on not receiving any new revenue seats from manufacturers. That includes the new single level Baggage, baggage dorms, diners, & sleepers. If Amtrak does not get these cars they will loose their $29.1M non-refundable deposit.
However the reports anticipate a higher load factor. To accomplish higher load factors with the same number of train miles; my conclusion is that somehow Amtrak will cut some cars short of a train's O&D? Best examples would be Crescent cars go WASH - ATL, and some Florida train cars go WASH/PHL - Orlando?
Western trains Cal Z cut cars at Denver and RENO.
That would require some extra switching costs especially ATL and ORL? Other trains do not seem to fit that profile? Some of the cars on those rains are lightly loaded now between those stations and destinations. Have ridden Crescent south of ATL and last 2 or 3 coaches are often shut off from passengers!
Now if AMTRAK can confirm these orders and the pending orders for Bi-Level cars they may revise these 2 reports? I have no idea.
We in the advocacy community must face the dismal prospect that Amtrak will get no additional funding snd may be sevely cut.
As far as the AEM-7 cabbages the report hinted at an expanded baggage service BOS - WASH?
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.