s&a 1I think Amtrak may be improving their on-time performance. The Amtrak that runs in my area used to always run late now it is close to on-time.
FY 2008 Amtrak's system on-time performance improved 2.6 per cent over FY 2007. Trains were on-time at their end points 71.2 per cent of the time. It is important to keep in mind that "on-time" means within 10 minutes of the advertised for trains traveling 250 miles or less and 30 minutes for trains running 550 miles or more. Amtrak does not say what "on-time" means for trains running between 250 and 550 miles. Thus, the Sunset Limited can be 30 minutes late arriving at El Paso and still be counted on-time by Amtrak, although the people waiting for it may have a different view of "on-time". Cooling one's heels in the El Paso station waiting for a train is not the most exciting thing to do in El Paso.
On time performance for the NEC declined by 3.3 per cent to 84.5 per cent for the premium trains and 1.2 per cent to 79.7 per cent for the regional trains.
Short distance train on-time performance increased 3.1 per cent to 68.6 per cent. Half the short distance trains show an improvement over FY 2007, whilst the other half showed a decrease. The best performers were the Capitols at 86 per cent and the Pennsylvanian at 86.7 per cent. The Missouri trains had the worst on-time arrival percentage at 18.6 per cent.
The long distance train on-time performance increased 12.6 per cent to 54.2 per cent. Of the 15 long distance trains, 11 show an improvement over FY 2007. The best performers were the Auto Train at 81.9 per cent and the Empire Builder at 68.8 per cent. The worst performers were the Texas Eagle at 17.9 per cent and the Sunset Limited at 27.2 per cent.
At Fort Worth Number 21 (Texas Eagle) was late by an average of 86 minutes in calendar 2008 whilst Number 22 was late an average of 58 minutes. Number 21 arrived late by an average of 102 minutes or more than an hour and a half at San Antonio.
Number 1 (Sunset Limited) was late by an average of 33 minutes at San Antonio, whilst Number 2 was late by an average of 83 minutes. However, the on-time performances improved dramatically during the last quarter of the year. I suspect it is because traffic on the UP has declined due to the recession.
Ironically, because the schedule is padded so heavily, Number 1 has been arriving at San Antonio shortly after 2:00 a.m. for many of the days since October 1st. This means that the train sits in the station for 3 hours and 40 minutes before departing at 5:40 a.m. for the west. This is a lot of time to be standing still, especially for a coach passenger.
Sam: I wonder if we could also have the total train minutes delayed by each carrier and that would include AMTRAK mechanical and AMTRAK operating delays. You did seem to miss that metric. Probably the best one would be minutes late / scheduled train miles. Also did you numbers count the coast starlight cancellations. Maybe canecelled miles would require a separate listing.
Sam: Thanks for the analysis. Now we can realize that BNSF is doing the best at 11.8% where as our old favorite whipping boys UP and CN in a virtual tie for worst. Of course after this winter weather is factored in those figures may all change for the worse.
It depends on how you look at it.
In FY 2008 the BNSF had 18.4 per cent of the major hoist road miles and was responsible for 11.8 per cent of the delay minutes per 10,000 train miles. The CN had 3.4 per cent of the train miles and 20.3 per cent of the delay minutes. The CP had 2 per cent of the train miles and 14.7 per cent of the delay minutes. The CSX had 15.1 per cent of the train miles and 16.1 per cent of the delay minutes. The NS had 6.1 per cent of train miles and 16.3 per cent of the delay minutes. The UP had 16.4 per cent of the train miles whilst racking up 20.7 per cent of the delay minutes.
Assuming an expected correlation between train miles and delay minutes, BNSF delivered a better than expected performance. CN and CP turned in poor performances. CSX's delay minutes were just a bit above its percentage of train miles. NS's delays minutes was way above its percentage of train miles, whilst UP's performance was about 4 percentage points above its train miles percentage.
In terms of end point arrivals your conclusion appears to be correct. It may be because the BNSF and NS are better at padding or having Amtrak pad the schedules for the trains on their properties. But end point arrivals only tell a small part of the story.
The Crescent has some padding at the end points of the run:
Alexandria to Manassas; 33 minutes southbound, 57 minutes northbound.
Slidell to New Orleans; 57 minutes northbound, 99 minutes southbound
In general, the pace at which the Crescent travels is not that of a priority express train. Mom, aunt, and sis all took their time getting off in Toccoa, and we were allowed plenty of time for goodbyes and photographs.
"Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood." Daniel Burnham
oltmannd The Crescent can't be too far off it's 1979 SR timing and the SW Chief probably isn't too far gone from the Super Chief- El Cap. in '71. I think that on time performance has gotten better, too. Suprisingly, NS doesn't generally have trouble with the LD trains (Crescent, LSL, Capitol), it's those pesky Wolverines! And, if I told you how Amtrak scores the frt road for "made" or "lost" trains, you wouldn't believe it!
The Crescent can't be too far off it's 1979 SR timing and the SW Chief probably isn't too far gone from the Super Chief- El Cap. in '71.
I think that on time performance has gotten better, too. Suprisingly, NS doesn't generally have trouble with the LD trains (Crescent, LSL, Capitol), it's those pesky Wolverines!
And, if I told you how Amtrak scores the frt road for "made" or "lost" trains, you wouldn't believe it!
Maybe Amtrak should buy all of this luxury equipment sitting idle over here at Napa and run a cruise train at taxpayers expense. After all they are going to bail out the auto industry according to tonights news using part of the money from the bank bailout. Does that mean everyone who buys a new GM, Ford or Chrysler for the next year will get a $5000.00 discount. Would it not make more sense to load the former Grand Luxe Express with all of the politicians and run it into the Grand Canyon.
Al - in - Stockton
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
One of the major problems with Amtrak today is I don't think there is a single long distance train in the system that is operating at or near the schedule prior to Amtrak. Until that and on time performance is seriously addressed I don't see much hope for any long distance service.
Many people may not live close to O'Hare or Midway, and they don't live close to Chicago Union Station, either. What's the point?? People still choose to fly because it's faster and it's a lot more frequent. For a family, driving to a reasonably close vacation spot may be a preferable option even if reasonably convenient rail service is available.
They were going somewhere other than Toccoa; that was just the closest train station. When they departed, they had reservations, so the engineer knew the train was stopping.
Americans have travel options. They may take the train, which will cost $10 billion and depart in ten years. It's really a hard sell.
Many people do not live close to hub airports, and rush hour traffic in multiple cities is often a concern when driving intercity. And not just big city traffic jams -- I-5 backs up around little old Mount Vernon, Washington, at rush hour!
Maglev In fact, the train was a refuge. Mom, sis, and aunt detrained in Toccoa, GA, so your travel time comparison brings up the point that not everyone lives in an airport "hub" city. Many people live in and travel to places where it is many miles to a "feeder" city. For many, a typical flying experience would have meant getting to New Orleans Airport two hours early, a flight to Atlanta, another flight to Greensville, then a drive to a final destination. Where is the big benefit over an all-day train trip?
In fact, the train was a refuge. Mom, sis, and aunt detrained in Toccoa, GA, so your travel time comparison brings up the point that not everyone lives in an airport "hub" city. Many people live in and travel to places where it is many miles to a "feeder" city.
For many, a typical flying experience would have meant getting to New Orleans Airport two hours early, a flight to Atlanta, another flight to Greensville, then a drive to a final destination. Where is the big benefit over an all-day train trip?
Flt to Greenville not worth it. Toccoa is less than a 2 hour drive from Hartsfield Jackson. Will take you an hour to get from the gate to your rental car, though. So, flying is 2 hours early to the airport, 1 hour flight, 1 hour to the rental and a 2 hour drive. That's 6 hours, airport to door. You could drive the whole thing in about 10 - lots of good, smooth 70 mph - although if you hit Atlanta during rush hour(s), you need ot allow an additional 40 minutes. Stll beats 14 hours on the Crescent, though - unless you're in it for the social experience.
BTW, I believe Toccoa is one of only a very few flag stops on any Amtrak route.
In FY 2007 more than 678 million people flew on U.S. commercial airlines. During the same period Amtrak carried approximately 25.8 million passengers, 85 per cent of whom rode its corridor trains. Less than 15 per cent rode the long distance trains. Each long distance rider received an average taxpayer subsidy of approximately $144 or 22.06 cents a mile.
All you have to do to get the passenger trains that you appear to want is convince millions of people to climb aboard, which is unlikely to happen; and get the government, which is strapped by a large debt burden, to pony up much more in the way of subsidies.
Long distance passenger trains make as much sense in this day and age as trans oceanic sailing ships.
Being pent up with family on a train drives one to drink? Maybe you should have flown...The TSA alone would keep you too busy to have family issues and the flight is only hours, not days. Anybody can get along for 5 hours or so....
Here is my most vivid memory of the Crescent. My wife and I were traveling with my mother, sister, and aunt from a family reunion. Well, by that point in the vacation, "family dynamics" had inspired me to have a beer in the lounge a bit earlier in the day than normal (it was after noon somewhere...) Afterward, I squeezed into the upper in our roomette while my wife read a book below me. It was a bit warm up there... I kind of dozed off... and was awakened by unusual train movements... the air in the car was hazy, we had sucked in dust from hastily re-laid tracks... outside was a string of overturned tank cars... the heat, the beer, the haze, the tightly confined quarters, and the scene outside all combined for a very surreal experience.
The area where I was stalled on the Sunset was between San Antonio and Houston, and was some of the worst track of the trip LA to New Orleans. When discrete corridors are developed between individual pairs of cities, it is likely that some development will occur in Texas.
With a smartly designed national rail network linking these discrete corridors, trains could even, for example, contribute to the redevelopment of New Orleans as a tourist destination. The Sunset is scheduled nine hours for 363 miles from Houston to New Orleans, and leaves at 6:15 in the morning. It is not atractive for tourists. But conveniently-timed, moderate-speed trains could encourage interstate commerce.
The Sunset is a perfect example of a train that does not make sense if you look just in terms of hard economics. There is plenty of money out there for trains. What if Disney were told they needed to pay cruise ship workers union wages, but train crews on US rails could work for tips only? What if you stuck a couple auto carriers on trains, and let people get off in Phoenix and drive to Denver?
And don't even get me started on the Crescent. This should be one of our nations most gracious trains among a whole fleet serving the South, but the roomettes inspire fear (Warning! Do Not Step Here!) and claustrophobia (my toes need more than six inches of wiggle room), while the diner serves food worthy of the International Space Station.
CG9602That may be congruent with GAAP et al., but I also recall that one can make numbers say whatever one wants the numbers to indicate. As for these shorter routes, I can't help but wonder how they might be more "profitable," or have a smaller loss, or be more valuable, when they serve much more limited markets than the long distance trains, particularly on a revenue passenger mile basis. Again, I'm a bit suspicious that trains serving more limited markets might have better financial performance. I mean, one did not build highways as disjointed discreet projects around the nation - the Interstates gained their value in part because they formed an interconnected system.
The numbers for the Sunset, as well as Amtrak's other trains, can be found in Amtrak's Monthly Operating Reports and the annual financial reports. They are audited by Amtrak's internal audit group and the company's external auditors.
Accounting data is influenced to a small extent by estimates, i.e. the estimated life of an asset (locomotives, cars, track, etc.) to determine depreciation. These estimates too are subject to scrutiny by the auditors.
The financial data for the Sunset tells management, as well as other stakeholders, e.g. taxpayers, how well the train performs compared to other Amtrak trains, as well as other modes of transport. The numbers are not spun to say what someone wants them to say. If management tried to do that the auditors would cut them off at the knees.
The short haul trains do not lose as much money per passenger mile as the long distance trains. In fact, some of the short haul trains, including those in the NEC, cover their operating costs and contribute something to other charges, i.e. interest, depreciation, management services, etc. No long distance train, with the exception of the Auto Train, even comes close to covering its operating costs.
Well, I really enjoyed my trip on the Sunset, even though we were late. Most of our delay was sitting next to a stalled scrap metal train, but fortunately it was on the OTHER side of the sleeper from our bedroom windows. My wife and I stayed in bed, while mom and sister did manicures in their room.
The secenery we saw was a farm with trees and rolling fields -- it really could have been many other places in America. There were actually sheep playing outside. I did not know that Texas had parts which looked like that... thought it was all refineries and desert.
CG9602All in all very informative, but I remind the members of the forum that profitability or loss of passenger trains is measured in terms of Revenue Passenger Miles, or passenger-miles per train-mile, and not on a per-passenger basis. Sam, would you be able to re-work those numbers and express them in terms of revenue passenger miles, please ?
The loss per passenger is a function of the loss per passenger mile times the miles from LAX to New Orleans. The numbers are taken from Amtrak's FY 2007 report. The FY 2008 numbers are likely to be different, but at the end of the day, based on the numbers through August 2008, the loss per passenger mile and passenger is likely to be equal to or slightly above those reported for 2007.
ArthurRaynolds On Nov 28th, my wife and I boarded the Sunset Limited in LA to travel across the country to Greenville SC. Due to equipment problems, the train arrived in the station late. We left 30 minutes late. By El Paso, we not only made up the time, but arrived early. All the way from El Paso to San Antonio TX, we only passed two UP freight trains. We were put into a siding only once and that was to allow train # 1 to pass WB. We sped across Texas, arriving earily at almost every station stop and had to wait for the appointed time to continue. Despite signal failure along the TX & LA line due to heavy rain, where we had to run at restricted speeds, we stilled arrived into New Orleans 17 minutes early. On Monday, the only time the NB Crescent took to a siding, it was to allow the SB Crescent to pass. Then to really surprise me, we had to back out of the siding because there was a freight ahead of us. At nearly every station we either arrived early on on time. My hats off to the powers that allowed this improvement. This is what Amtrak has needed all along. Now we need new equipment!
On Nov 28th, my wife and I boarded the Sunset Limited in LA to travel across the country to Greenville SC. Due to equipment problems, the train arrived in the station late. We left 30 minutes late. By El Paso, we not only made up the time, but arrived early. All the way from El Paso to San Antonio TX, we only passed two UP freight trains. We were put into a siding only once and that was to allow train # 1 to pass WB. We sped across Texas, arriving earily at almost every station stop and had to wait for the appointed time to continue. Despite signal failure along the TX & LA line due to heavy rain, where we had to run at restricted speeds, we stilled arrived into New Orleans 17 minutes early. On Monday, the only time the NB Crescent took to a siding, it was to allow the SB Crescent to pass. Then to really surprise me, we had to back out of the siding because there was a freight ahead of us. At nearly every station we either arrived early on on time. My hats off to the powers that allowed this improvement. This is what Amtrak has needed all along. Now we need new equipment!
I track the schedule performance of Amtrak's trains at key points in Texas.
Since the beginning of the year Number 2 has been late, on average, by 61 minutes, with a median of 46 minutes, at El Paso. Number 1 has been late, on average, by 38 minutes, with a median of 7 minutes. This is a marked improvement over 2007 when No 2 was late, on average, by 129 minutes and Number 1 was late by an average of 62 minutes.
Number 2 has been late, on average, by 86 minutes at San Antonio, with a median of 65 minutes. Number 1 has only been late by an average of 35 minutes, with a median of 0 minutes, which means that it has been on time as often as it has been late. Frequently the train has arrived in San Antonio more than an hour early during October and November.
The on time performance at San Antonio and El Paso has improved dramatically this fall. The down turn in the economy has reduce the number of freight movements on the UP, thereby making it possible to move Amtrak's trains without undue delay.
The other variable, as mentioned, is the schedule. It is padded more than a hockey goalie's uniform.
Amtrak does not need new long distance equipment. It needs to get rid of the long distance trains, which accounted for less than 25 per cent of its revenues but chewed up nearly 140 per cent of the operating costs and 48 per cent of the federal subsidy in FY 2007. Less than 15 per cent of Amtrak's passengers rode its long distance trains. And less than one per cent of intercity travellers opted for long distance trains.
Amtrak could buy a business class ticket on Air Trans for every Sunset passenger traveling from LAX to New Orleans for $566. In FY 2007 the average per passenger subsidy for a LAX to New Orleans trip on the Sunset was $958 before other charges or nearly $1,200 after other charges. Doing so would save the taxpayers more than $600 per passenger.
Part of the good performance is because the frt RRs greatly curtail operations over holiday. So, it's almost like traffic levels of 1971.
Amtrak and the host railroads are to be commended for punctual operation. Unfortunately, the ultimate reason for your on-time performance is a heavily padded schedule. If Amtrak and the host railroads could rely on running near the speed limit and encountering few delays, the schedules could be shortened considerably.
My last trip on the Sunset, we arrived in New Orleans six hours late -- 2 am instead of 8 pm. We had a taxi drop our family of four at our bed and breakfast, only to find an envelope attached to a locked door, with a message that our accommodations were ten blocks away!
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