Gasoline shortages in South not affecting AMTRAK ridership

[blue streak 1]

The shortages of gasoline in the south and (mid atlantic)? states has not caused a run on AMTRAK YET. Only the cardinal and Palmetto is sold out on the 27th (sat). I wonder why there is not more demand for seats. Any ideas. In case you are wondering Atlanta is out of gasoline by 1400 the last three days. Lack of refinerys up and running in Texas due to IKE. Samamtha know anything? 

[Anonymous]

As is true in most areas of the United States, the majority of Americans don't think train as an alternative to driving or flying.  This is clearly the case in Texas.  Moreover, because of infrequent service outside of the corridors (NEC, Illinois, and California), taking the train is not a serious option. 

In Texas most weekend travelers, especially this time of the year, are only driving a couple of hundred miles at the most.  If they had frequent, rapid corridor trains, I suspect many of them would leave the family buggy at home and take the train.  But we don't have frequent train service in Texas.  Instead we have two long distance trains that run only once a day or three times a week, usually late, as well as a daily short haul train.  They are not serious transport options in the minds of most people.  This is the reason why I have argued consistently for the discontinuance of the long distance trains, which are used by less than one per cent of the people traveling on a commercial carrier, and the redirection of the monies into the development of regional rail corridors.

Approximately 25 per cent of the refinery capacity of the United States is located along the Texas and the Louisiana coasts.  When a hurricane hits, the refineries are shut down to ride out the storm.  It takes time to shut them down and then restart them in an orderly fashion.  It is not unlike restarting a large power plant, which I have been a part of many times.  Thus, 25 per cent of America's refinery capacity was shut down for an appreciable amount of time, and is only now coming back on line.  This fact, plus reported panic buying in the Southeast, is driving the gasoline shortage.  Ironically, outside of the Houston and Galveston areas, there is no shortage of gasoline in Texas.

[gardendance]

In case you are wondering Atlanta is out of gasoline by 1400 the last three days.

Please explain what this means. Are you saying that most gas stations in Atlanta run out of gasoline to sell by 2pm?

[blue streak 1]

gafdendance:  Yes. the gasoline terminal in Doraville on theColonial pipeline can provide so much gasoline each day and they provide it to the tankers after midnight which the trucks then distribute. Once the allocation is taken no more filling tankers until the next midnight. The gas stations then pump the products until the stations run out. I should have said that the stations run out on the average at about 2PM.  Have not heard if any railroad shortages occuring. It is expected that enough refining capacity will be running by next next Friday (Oct 3) that the next monday will have adequate supplies. Several of our stations on the south side are closed by 2100 even though they are usually open 24/7.

[Wdlgln005]

In case you are wondering Atlanta is out of gasoline by 1400 the last three days.

Please explain what this means. Are you saying that most gas stations in Atlanta run out of gasoline to sell by 2pm?

 

I'd use Amtrak if it was available. Amtrak has failed to grow along with the population in the SE. Having only 1-2 trains a day to Atlanta is a joke.

Last weekend, 85% of the stations in Nashville had NO gas, any grade. Slowly getting better this week. 

BTW the Music City Star reported record ridership for the last week. No lines for gas there. Nashville is on the same pipeline as Atlanta. Clearly, we need another source to convert oil into gas. 

[Scum Mudd]

Without a doubt in my mind, railroads would have been used extensively in the south if they had been available.  Several folks commented last week during the worst of the crisis here in Western North Carolina that they sure wish they could take the train.  I really believe if regular, consistent service was available, it would be used.  One train stopping in the night in Atlanta is no gauge of rail travel interest.

[blue streak 1]

Samantha:  I do not believe you can call it panic buying if only 60% of normal useage is available here in Atlanta. Sounds like western NC is also in a bind. When will the refinerys be back up to full production?

[blue streak 1]

wdlgln005: Heard that nashville got a barge of gasoline. Did it help?

[oltmannd]

The state of GA has failed in serveral regards:

1.  Right now, they are not letting the prices rise to slaken demand.  The result is that no one will ship gasoline into the market.  We are stuck with what moves in the pipeline.  The state is actively hunting down "price gougers" - whatever that may be.

2.  Even after the Katrina mess, the state did no forward planning.   They did not act, plan or even ask what the inventories at the terminals were during a season when we are switching from summer to winter blend and it's tropical storm peak season in the gulf. 

3. The state has done next to nothing to help provide alternatives to driving.  Atlanta had one Amtrak RT per day when the population was <1M and now has the same with population >4M.

A lot of this is due to the current adminsitrator who thinks his job begins and ends with what the legislature sends him. 

It's going to be like this more and more in Atlanta.  The region is soley dependent on a two pipeline companies that are currently running near 100% (when the gulf refineries are all up an running.)  There is no more capacity in these pipelines - the are already "horsepowered up" to the maximum flow. 

If the price was allowed to rise, the RRs would find a niche shipping gasoline into the market.  The ethanol cars could haul gasoline and the terminals should be able to take it - they already get ethanol for blending.  Don't know if the refineries have facilities for loading, tho'

Oh, I forgot, that would require some planning and leadership!

[blue streak 1]

oltmannd: Right on - don't you just love out governor?

[alphas]

My understanding is you can't haul "pure" ethanol and then gasoline in the same containers without thoroughly cleaning them first.    Maybe someone else who knows more than me can respond to that point.  

I'm not sure I'd want trainloads of gasoline constantly moving by rail.    Besides its being inefficient and costly, there's a much incresed danger in case of a wreck/vandalism/sabotage.  

Sounds to me this problem is due to a lack of pipeline capacity more than anything else.  Unfortunately, under the current Federal enviromental laws its about as tough to build a new pipeline as a new refinery.

[blue streak 1]

alphas: The pipeline is running at 60% capacity because there is not enough product being produced in Texas!

[Wdlgln005]

Double post Sorry

 

[Wdlgln005]

wdlgln005: Heard that nashville got a barge of gasoline. Did it help?

I'd have to know where the barge was delivered. With 85% of gas stations out last Friday brought on a panic bying spree by motorists. I'd hope some gas could be delivered from other markets. Not sure what kind of rules allow Nashville to burn Memphis gas, for example. I'm not sure what "winter gas" we get. I thought that was a Northern product where some heet is added for winter driving. 

This Sunday we seem to have a lot more gas. 

 

[oltmannd]

My understanding is you can't haul "pure" ethanol and then gasoline in the same containers without thoroughly cleaning them first.    Maybe someone else who knows more than me can respond to that point.  

I'm not sure I'd want trainloads of gasoline constantly moving by rail.    Besides its being inefficient and costly, there's a much incresed danger in case of a wreck/vandalism/sabotage.  

Sounds to me this problem is due to a lack of pipeline capacity more than anything else.  Unfortunately, under the current Federal enviromental laws its about as tough to build a new pipeline as a new refinery.

Don't know about having to clean ethanol cars out before gasoline.  I thought that it should work because winter blend gas is 10% ethanol, so a little residue shouldn't hurt.

Pipeline capacity isn't the issue now, it's the refineries shut down due to Ike, but it will be the reason this nonsense will occur more frequently in the future.  And, it'll be part of the reason why it'll take a few weeks to get over this crisis this time.

Refineries and terminals switching from summer to winter blends + lack of excess refinery capacity + lack of excess pipeline capacity + hurricane season + no contingency plan  = recipe for disaster.  Why should we be surprised one happened?

[DMUinCT]

   Here in the Northeast, NO problems, gas is down to $356 a gal., buy all you want anywhere.

   I don't belive what the government or oil companies say, if the south has a problem, it HAS to be a distribution problem do to design or "profiteering".

[gardendance]

I'm not sure I'd want trainloads of gasoline constantly moving by rail.    Besides its being inefficient and costly, there's a much incresed danger in case of a wreck/vandalism/sabotage. 

Pipeline capacity isn't the issue now, it's the refineries shut down due to Ike, but it will be the reason this nonsense will occur more frequently in the future.  And, it'll be part of the reason why it'll take a few weeks to get over this crisis this time.

If you only have 1 pipeline, and the refineries at one end aren't putting any product in I'd call that pretty inneficient. I can agree that it's not a pipline capacity issue, but a problem with one end of the pipeline. I'm assuming then that Savannah doesn't have a shortage since they can get supplied via boat. Does anyone know if that's the case?

 
With 85% of gas stations out last Friday brought on a panic bying spree by motorists.

This confuses me. Wouldn't the motorists ordinarilly fill their tanks when they get empty? So how can they buy more gas when they panic, unless they put it in separate containers? If I panic when my tank's half full I can only put half a tank's worth of gas in it. Yes, I'll contribute to the line of cars at the pump, but I won't take more gasoline from the pump in 2 half tank purchases than I would in 1 full tank purchase.

[oltmannd]

I'm not sure I'd want trainloads of gasoline constantly moving by rail.    Besides its being inefficient and costly, there's a much incresed danger in case of a wreck/vandalism/sabotage. 

Pipeline capacity isn't the issue now, it's the refineries shut down due to Ike, but it will be the reason this nonsense will occur more frequently in the future.  And, it'll be part of the reason why it'll take a few weeks to get over this crisis this time.

If you only have 1 pipeline, and the refineries at one end aren't putting any product in I'd call that pretty inneficient. I can agree that it's not a pipline capacity issue, but a problem with one end of the pipeline. I'm assuming then that Savannah doesn't have a shortage since they can get supplied via boat. Does anyone know if that's the case?

 
With 85% of gas stations out last Friday brought on a panic bying spree by motorists.

This confuses me. Wouldn't the motorists ordinarilly fill their tanks when they get empty? So how can they buy more gas when they panic, unless they put it in separate containers? If I panic when my tank's half full I can only put half a tank's worth of gas in it. Yes, I'll contribute to the line of cars at the pump, but I won't take more gasoline from the pump in 2 half tank purchases than I would in 1 full tank purchase.

Pretend numbers, but it illustrates what happens when everybody "tops off"

Assume 2M vehicles with 10 gallons in each tank and room for 10 more (on the avg) (total space for gas 20M gallons)

Assume 1000 gas stations with 2000 gallons in the ground and room for 2000 more. (total inventory = 2M gallons)

Assume 1 terminal with 1M gallons inventory.

If 10% of the fleet goes out and fills their tanks on one day, all the gas stations will be dry and only 1/4 of them will be able to refill their storage tanks.

There is always more room in the gas tanks of the vehicles in an area than their is in the inventory of gas stations and bulk terminals.  If people panic and start topping off, you can drain the existing inventory in short order.

There are two pipeline companies operating from the Gulf to the NE via Atlanta,  Each Co. has multiple pipes, and during peak season, they are running pretty close to 100%.  They have added capacity in the past by adding HP to increase flow rate, but that game has been played to it's end.  The only way to add capacity now, is to lay more pipe, and nobody's doing it!