WSJ: All Aboard: Too Many for Amtrak Surge in Ridership Leads to Crowding On Intercity Trains

[oltmannd]

Don, don't get into an argument with a locomotive.

I would have to be smart enought to take good advice....the jury's out on that one!

[Paul Milenkovic]

Don, don't get into an argument with a locomotive.

[oltmannd]

to quell the push for a new NEC that John Mica et. al. are talking about

Using a false rebuttal is less effective than no rebuttal.  Besides, Mica's "proposals" are mere hot air intended to go nowhere and stall everything, so why contribute to it by saying things that make no sense?

...in your opinion.

[JT22CW]

to quell the push for a new NEC that John Mica et. al. are talking about

Using a false rebuttal is less effective than no rebuttal.  Besides, Mica's "proposals" are mere hot air intended to go nowhere and stall everything, so why contribute to it by saying things that make no sense?

[Anonymous]

I don't understand the bond authority bit.  That sounds like a way to expense an investment - or am I wrong.  (Selling bonds has made many of the Mayor's family and friends rich in Chicago.  Does it work that way in Washington too?)

Granting Amtrak the authority to issue bonds means, in all probability, that the bonds will be backed by the U.S. Treasury, i.e. the taxpayers, in case of a default.  It also means that Amtrak will be able to borrow money at U.S. Treasury rates. 

Amtrak issued bonds would probably attract a rate somewhere between the Treasury 10 year note and 30 year bond.  This means it will be able to borrow the money to build, repair, and maintain their infrastructure and equipment for a lower rate than their competitors, i.e. commercial airlines, bus companies, etc.  This is a government subsidy.

Debt financing requires periodic payment of interest and principal.  The principal can be paid into a sinking fund, which is the typical pattern, so that the issuer has enough money to redeem the bonds on maturity, or it can be paid in a lump sum when the bonds are retired.  In this case the issuer might issue new bonds to pay for all or part of the bonds being retired.  

Anytime a business or government or individual borrows money to buy goods and services, the cost of the acquisition increases by the amount of the debt (issuance) fees and the interest attracted by it.  If Amtrak issued $5 billion of 30 year bonds at 4.2 per cent, which is about half the difference between the U.S. Treasury 10 year note and 30 year bond rate, the cost of the acquisition and financing would be approximately $17.5 billion. 

The cost of the debt would be amortized to expense each year for the life of the debt issue, i.e. 30 years.  This is what is meant by the term expensing the investment. 

Issuing bonded debt usually requires the services of an investment banker to structure the debt offering and assist with its placement, i.e. selling the bonds.  For this service the banker is paid a fee.  The amount of the fee, which is usually stated as a per cent of the issuance ($1,000 per bond) may only be one tenth of one per cent.  For an issuance of $5 billion the fee would be $5 million.  This is one of the reasons that investment bankers don't drive Toyota Corollas.

Selling bonds also requires the services of a bond attorney to make sure that the legal bases are covered.  Bond attorneys attract a handsome fee for their services, but they are usually modest compared to the investment banking fees.

Unless the issuing authority (politician, government official, corporate executive, etc.) organizes a kickback scheme, which is illegal, they do not stand to gain from the issuance of bonded debt. The governing authorities pay very close attention to anything that smells illegal.  And the jail terms for doing so are stiff.    

[oltmannd]

I'm confused . . .  how can NEC trains be "overcrowded" since they are all-reserved seating and require a specific ticket for each particular train? 

For that matter, all Amtrak runs are supposed to be all-reserved except for the Chicago - Milwaukee "Hiawatha Service" IIRC. 

So who are these people squeezing onto trains and having to stand?  It should be impossible to do so.   -   a. s.

 

I'm confoosed too. I only skimmed, but I didn't see the article said anybody had to stand, so I'm leaning towards overcrowded doesn't mean more bodies than seats.

Maybe it means there are folks hogging more than 1 seat, and it takes forever to walk the train with your luggage, realize all seats have either a person or luggage, then muster the gumption to ask an offender to move it, get "oh that's my wife's bag, she's coming back in a minute", or even a complete refusal so you have to summon a crew member in order to get a seat. Not conducive to a calm relaxing trip, and the blocked aisle probably doesn't improve station dwell time.

I don't fly much, but I'm guessing airplanes have less of a problem, mostly 3x3 seating where nobody wants the middle seat, but they usually don't put a bag on the seat.

It's time for Amtrak to let customer's pick specific seats on all reserved trains ala the airlines.  Not easy to do, but doable if they put some effort into it.

[electrifying]

I rode from Baltimore to Philly ten years ago and found that the train was full to overflowing.  I shudder to think what today's crowds have done to the peak hour trains.   The NE Corridor is the exception to the Amtrak routes.  Most run through empty open country and the train has long been too slow for most passengers who are going a considerable distance.   A trip from St Louis to Chicago recently had only about 25 on board at StL and hardly anyone boarding along the way- none at all at Springfield.   Weekend students fill the trains but Amtrak needs weekday riders as well.  California has shown how things can be done but even there the Sacramento service seems to rely heavily on weekend users.   The recent surge in traffic is a knee-jerk reaction to a sudden jump in petrol costs and most folk will get used to that and revert to their cars.  Climate change topics are much less in the public eye in America compared with the UK (where I am writing from).   Amtrak will never be able to handle double its present traffic until the infrastructure is rebuilt (who pays?) so that there is room for fast frequent passenger service (who pays the subsidy?) as well as the vital freight business.

Iain Frew - Sutton Coldfield, England.

[oltmannd]

Lest there be any doubt about where Amtrak sees their future; from the WSJ interview:

Kummant:

If you give me $50 billion, I'd say you'd do the country a hell of a lot more good if you built out the base system and created 100 miles per hour service everywhere. The proposal is 2 hours between DC and New York and I kind of say 'Whoop Dee Doo.' Connectivity in the network means a heck of a lot more than one high-speed route, in my humble opinion. Going south, we should have an Eastern Corridor, not just a Northeast Corridor. DC to Richmond, Richmond to Charlotte. That's far more important, in my view, if you really had that many billions hanging around....I don't want to come off as being anti-high-speed rail... I'm big fan of doing what's doable.

This is not a "restore the Sunset" nor a "lets buy more sleepers" mentality. Neither is it a "lets built a HSR network" mentality.   It's a "lets develop incrementally higher speed corridors that tie into the existing network" mentality.

But Kummant's not even getting this "$50 billion" to create "100-mph corridors" (about $2.5 million per every non-NEC mile of Amtrak's operating system), so why is he even saying it?

..to quell the push for a new NEC that John Mica et. al. are talking about.

[JT22CW]

Lest there be any doubt about where Amtrak sees their future; from the WSJ interview:

Kummant:

If you give me $50 billion, I'd say you'd do the country a hell of a lot more good if you built out the base system and created 100 miles per hour service everywhere. The proposal is 2 hours between DC and New York and I kind of say 'Whoop Dee Doo.' Connectivity in the network means a heck of a lot more than one high-speed route, in my humble opinion. Going south, we should have an Eastern Corridor, not just a Northeast Corridor. DC to Richmond, Richmond to Charlotte. That's far more important, in my view, if you really had that many billions hanging around....I don't want to come off as being anti-high-speed rail... I'm big fan of doing what's doable.

This is not a "restore the Sunset" nor a "lets buy more sleepers" mentality. Neither is it a "lets built a HSR network" mentality.   It's a "lets develop incrementally higher speed corridors that tie into the existing network" mentality.

Looks to me like it's a "let's equivocate in public" mentality. 

Didn't Kummant claim that it would take "$50 billion" to create a "200-mph NEC" in order to achieve the lofty goal of running from NYP to WAS in "2 hours"?  But the fact is, you don't need to run at 200 mph to get from NYP to WAS in two hours, because that's an average speed of 112.5 miles per hour, achievable with a tilt train that doesn't even have to run as fast as 150 mph (143 mph would do).  If the "$50 billion" were to be spent only on the 225 miles connecting New York and Washington DC, then that would be an outrageous $222.2 million per mile.  If you want to run at 200 mph, you had better be thinking of running times connecting those two cities in 1½ hours or less.

Technically, it's not a bad idea to make traditional rail corridors faster.  It's worked very well in Germany, where the ICE-T tilt-train runs at average speeds in excess of 120 mph between Berlin and Hamburg (no NBS on that run).  But Kummant's not even getting this "$50 billion" to create "100-mph corridors" (about $2.5 million per every non-NEC mile of Amtrak's operating system), so why is he even saying it?

[amsr]

I'm confused . . .  how can NEC trains be "overcrowded" since they are all-reserved seating and require a specific ticket for each particular train? 

For that matter, all Amtrak runs are supposed to be all-reserved except for the Chicago - Milwaukee "Hiawatha Service" IIRC. 

So who are these people squeezing onto trains and having to stand?  It should be impossible to do so.   -   a. s.

 

I dunno, but I have ridden many a train between DC and NY where at least a portion of the route was standing room only. I suspect they aren't enforcing the "specific ticket for train" part of their rules all the time. During rush hour they have trains leaving DC very frequetly, at least every half hour if not more. I suspect people who are late for one train just hop on the next one. Its almost a commuter mentality, but not quite. Although there are certainly people who use Amtrak to commute between say Phila and NY a couple days a week. They seem to be more strict with the Acela - where they care more about the "experience".

[paulsafety]

Just to add to the discussion about spending to increase availability of service, dependability of service, expansion of service, etc. the USDOT has just announced a major grant program to the tune of $30 million:

http://www.metro-magazine.com/News/Story/2008/08/U-S-DOT-announces-new-rail-grant-program.aspx

"Twenty-five forward-thinking proposals from 22 states to improve intercity passenger rail service and help relieve traffic congestion in many regions of the U.S. will compete for $30 million in federal funding under a new Bush Administration grant program, announced U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary E. Peters.

"Our goal is to achieve long-term improvements in intercity passenger rail service by supporting state investments that get real results," said Secretary Peters. She added that the U.S. Department of Transportation is currently reviewing the proposals and will determine final grant awards in September.

Proposed projects include: installing advanced signaling systems to increase track speeds, reconfiguring track junctions to enhance operational efficiency and constructing additional main line track to keep trains moving. Most of the grant applications seek to improve existing passenger rail routes, while a few involve planning activities for the creation of an entirely new service. Each federal grant awarded will require a 50-50 funding match, Peters said.

The Federal Railroad Administration will evaluate each proposal for key program priorities such as inclusion of intercity passenger rail in state plans to address congestion and a project's ability to reduce travel times, increase service frequency or enhance service quality. Since some projects also will benefit the operations of private freight railroads on whose tracks passenger trains primarily run, a commitment by the host railroad to improve on-time performance will be a major consideration in evaluating proposals, added Peters.

The Bush Administration called for creation of this first-ever federal-state funding partnership as part of its long standing intercity passenger rail reform effort, and is requesting $100 million for this grant program in its proposed FY 2009 budget.

[Phoebe Vet]

The extension south of the NEC is in progress.

http://www.sehsr.org/

 

It's a PLAN to extend. Except for some track work done on the NCRR by NC, everything else is just on paper with no money for track, signals or equipment allocated.

Railroad and Highway Design

Richmond to Petersburg (30 miles)
From Richmond to Petersburg, the most recent section to be added to the project, the preliminary railroad and associated highway designs are underway, progressing from north to south. These preliminary designs are expected to be complete in late 2008.

Petersburg to VA/NC Line (68 miles)
Initial railroad horizontal and vertical alignments and preliminary highway designs are complete in this section. 

VA/NC Line to Raleigh (70 miles)
The initial railroad horizontal and vertical designs are complete in this section. Preliminary highway designs are proceeding from north to south, and are expected to be complete in mid-2008. 

Last updated June 2008.

Looks like more than "just a plan" to me.

You know it takes the government 20 years to do anything, and each step gets funded individually when it's required.

[gardendance]

I'm confused . . .  how can NEC trains be "overcrowded" since they are all-reserved seating and require a specific ticket for each particular train? 

For that matter, all Amtrak runs are supposed to be all-reserved except for the Chicago - Milwaukee "Hiawatha Service" IIRC. 

So who are these people squeezing onto trains and having to stand?  It should be impossible to do so.   -   a. s.

 

I'm confoosed too. I only skimmed, but I didn't see the article said anybody had to stand, so I'm leaning towards overcrowded doesn't mean more bodies than seats.

Maybe it means there are folks hogging more than 1 seat, and it takes forever to walk the train with your luggage, realize all seats have either a person or luggage, then muster the gumption to ask an offender to move it, get "oh that's my wife's bag, she's coming back in a minute", or even a complete refusal so you have to summon a crew member in order to get a seat. Not conducive to a calm relaxing trip, and the blocked aisle probably doesn't improve station dwell time.

I don't fly much, but I'm guessing airplanes have less of a problem, mostly 3x3 seating where nobody wants the middle seat, but they usually don't put a bag on the seat.

[HarveyK400]

Re: the Lincoln service: It's not the tracks!  Well, it's been a few years since the faster route from Granite City over MacArthur Bridge into St. Louis was rehabbed for Amtrak; and slow orders have crept in.  Who keeps promoting this myth about railroads having bad mainline track; and why do they do it? 

The Lincoln service is mostly a single-track 285-mile route with about as many passenger meets as with the few freights.  Even so, this is nowhere near as pressing an interference situation as is facing the St. Louis - Kansas City Mules.

Amtrak can stay clear of most conflicting freight movements in the St. Louis area, but not around Chicago.  Sometimes trains can be delayed indirectly, "cascading," by delays to another train.  The early morning train to St. Louis experienced delays resulting from inbound Metra delays on the CN at any of the numerous freight crossings in addition to single-tracking around freights on the main.  On a number of occasions UP chose to hold out of Springfield an on-time 304 to run one of its few freight through, messing up subsequent meets with 21, 305, and 307. These were resolved with some legislature and congressional jaw-boning.

Replace the Acelas in ten years?  I didn't know they were that old - or is Amtrak measuring from the time they were supposed to enter service?

I don't understand the bond authority bit.  That sounds like a way to expense an investment - or am I wrong.  (Selling bonds has made many of the Mayor's family and friends rich in Chicago.  Does it work that way in Washington too?)

Mr. Kummant mentions an Eastern corridor to Charlotte.  That's a pretty limited scope centered on how far a train can take you from New York in a reasonable day of travel.  Why not Washington - Atlanta, Washington-Jacksonville, Raleigh-Birmingham, Raleigh-Charlotte, Charlotte-New Orleans, Raleigh-Orlando and so forth?

See also the discussion: Passenger>Should Amtrak.... 

 

[al-in-chgo]

I'm confused . . .  how can NEC trains be "overcrowded" since they are all-reserved seating and require a specific ticket for each particular train? 

For that matter, all Amtrak runs are supposed to be all-reserved except for the Chicago - Milwaukee "Hiawatha Service" IIRC. 

So who are these people squeezing onto trains and having to stand?  It should be impossible to do so.   -   a. s.

 

[MP173]

Good article.  Great increase in ridership. 

But, there is so much that needs to be done if this is to be a viable system.  The problem of freight and passenger on the same line is a big problem.

ed

[Los Angeles Rams Guy]

Hopefully this surge in ridership will eventually lead to new service in corridors such as Cheyenne-Denver-Pueblo to connect with the current SW Chief, and also between the Twin Cities and Kansas City.  I know both Iowa and Illinois are looking hard at Chicago - Iowa City service (expand to Des Moines?) and Chicago - Dubuque (need to extend to Waterloo). 

[oltmannd]

The extension south of the NEC is in progress.

http://www.sehsr.org/

 

It's a PLAN to extend. Except for some track work done on the NCRR by NC, everything else is just on paper with no money for track, signals or equipment allocated.

[oltmannd]

For a mere $625,000,000 you can knock fifteen minutes off the New York to DC section.  I can't wait - for the bill!

 I think he was floating that out there as a reason NOT to invest the $0.6B...

[ndbprr]

For a mere $625,000,000 you can knock fifteen minutes off the New York to DC section.  I can't wait - for the bill!

[Phoebe Vet]

The extension south of the NEC is in progress.

http://www.sehsr.org/

 

[oltmannd]

Lest there be any doubt about where Amtrak sees their future; from the WSJ interview:

Kummant:

"If you give me $50 billion I'd say you'd do the country a hell of a lot more good if you built out the base system and created 100 miles per hour service everywhere. The proposal is 2 hours between DC and New York and I kind of say 'Whoop Dee Doo.' Connectivity in the network means a heck of a lot more than one high-speed route, in my humble opinion. Going south, we should have an Eastern Corridor, not just a Northeast Corridor. DC to Richmond, Richmond to Charlotte. That's far more important, in my view, if you really had that many billions hanging around....I don't want to come off as being anti-high-speed rail... I'm big fan of doing what's doable."

This is not a "restore the Sunset" nor a "lets buy more sleepers" mentality. Neither is it a "lets built a HSR network" mentality.   It's a "lets develop incrementally higher speed corridors that tie into the existing network" mentality.

 

[karldotcom]

Friday's Wall Street Journal has a pretty long Page 2 article on Amtrak's increase in ridership and problems...there is also a seperate interview with Alex Kummant

 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121815170729322339.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news <-not sure how much non subscribers can read....but the video should be "free"

Here is a video report of the story:

 http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid452319854/bctid1717862661