Amtrak has been in negotiation with ts labor unions about pay for the last 8 years. The egotiations broke down, mediation failed, and an emergency board was appointed to make recommendations which which I presume Amtrak or its unions are free to reject. according to the Washington Post of January 4, 2008 the emergency board delivered its recommendations to the President on December 31, 2007 which starts a 30 day cooling off period. If either Amtrak or the unions reject the emergency board's findings the unions are free to go on strike on January 31.
There are a number of scenarios. If Amtrak and the unions agree to the emergency board's recommendations, then the problem goes away. In my opinion they will accept the emergency board's recommendations. See below.
But let's take a worst case scenario. If neither Amtrak and the unions accept the emrgency board's findings then the unions are free to strike, and they probably will. If they walk out Amtrak might seek an injunction ordering the workers back on the job, or it might seek an injunction to ban the walkout beforehand. In any event this problem will be tossed into the lap of Congress who will quickly legislate a settlement that will please nobody.
Even if there is a walk-out it won't last more than 2 -3 days if that. An Amtrak strike, even if it doesn't last long will cause plenty of disruptions, possibly more for those who don't use than who use it. It would probably impact the Northeast Corridor the most because it would shut down most of the commuter service, NS would not be able to run its freight trains between Perryville, MD and either Baltimore and Wilmington, and I-95 would be clogged. Of course an Amtrak strike would also disrupt commuter operations outside of the Northeast Corridor plus disrupt intrastate travel in Northern California.
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