http://www.cbs19.tv/story/19284558/private-firm-planning-bullet-trains-in-texas-by-2020
I think the notable thing here is that the project is privately funded by a japanese company and not publicly owned. I am normally against passenger transit that isn't government owned but privatization offers an interesting option for states that can't afford to pay for high speed rail.
Railroad to Freedom
I've lost track of the status of the court fight between the State of Texas and the EPA regarding whose set of enviromental rules are in force in that state. However, in most states you would be hard pressed to do the required research by 2020. Heaven help you if somewhere on the route you are crossing the habitat of the endangered eight toed, black striped Lone Star spider.
ontheBNSF http://www.cbs19.tv/story/19284558/private-firm-planning-bullet-trains-in-texas-by-2020 I think the notable thing here is that the project is privately funded by a japanese company and not publicly owned. I am normally against passenger transit that isn't government owned but privatization offers an interesting option for states that can't afford to pay for high speed rail.
I support enthusiastically any attempts to offer private passenger rail service. Needless to say, I will be a strong supporter of a Texas effort.
Private may not be as strange as many people think. A consortium of private investors is promoting private passenger rail in Italy and Florida.
Promoters in Texas will have two huge hurdles to overcome. The car culture is as deeply imbedded in Texas as any place that I know of. And Southwest Airlines is this states high speed, mass transit option.
Dakguy201 I've lost track of the status of the court fight between the State of Texas and the EPA regarding whose set of enviromental rules are in force in that state. However, in most states you would be hard pressed to do the required research by 2020. Heaven help you if somewhere on the route you are crossing the habitat of the endangered eight toed, black striped Lone Star spider.
Like most government agencies, the EPA, etc., were created to fill an important need but over the years have expanded their reach and mission to the point of absurdity.
Dave
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
I never considered clean air and water to be an absurdity.
CSSHEGEWISCH I never considered clean air and water to be an absurdity.
Did you read the first part of the sentence? I said they have an important mission. I then said that they over expand the mission.
Remember the TVA vs Snail Darter fiasco? Here in Charlotte our light rail construction was held up because they found a protected weed growing in what was already a NS ROW. It had to be dug up and replanted in an approved location and the associated paperwork for this project slowed the construction project significantly.
I absolutely agree with their mandate to keep the air and water clean, but I disagree with minor nit-picking.
A ten year time line will turf out just about any private investor for any project. The ROI goes in the toilet if you have to wait ten year for any income to show up once investment begins.
It doesn't have to take this long. It only takes 2-3 years to build an intermodal terminal from scratch - studies, permits, design, construction- the whole deal.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) is primarily responsible for ensuring that Texas is in compliance with EPA standards.
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott has filed lawsuits against the EPA contending that it has or is exceeding it authority. Abbott is a politician who has an eye on the governor's mansion. Many Texans decry the money that has been wasted on the lawsuits and recognize the primary driver for them.
I was associated with the electric utility business in Texas for most of my business career. We had numerous TECQ hurdles to overcome every time we wanted to construct a new power plant, transmission line, sub-station, mine site, pipeline, etc.
We found the TECQ and the EPA to be reasonable in most things. The key to meeting the TECQ and EPA requirements is to understand the requirements and have the paperwork in order. Most people who have a problem with the TECQ, at least based on our experience, don't do their homework.
I don't mean to imply that we did not have issues with TECQ and EPA. We disagreed with some of their rulings and appealed them when we thought it was appropriate. My former employer has an appeal in the courts regarding power plant emissions. Nor do I mean to say that Texas does not have some serious environmental issues. It does, especially along the Gulf Coast, where there are numerous refineries and chemical plants.
oltmannd A ten year time line will turf out just about any private investor for any project. The ROI goes in the toilet if you have to wait ten year for any income to show up once investment begins. It doesn't have to take this long. It only takes 2-3 years to build an intermodal terminal from scratch - studies, permits, design, construction- the whole deal.
Private investors will put up the money for a capital project if they have a strong reason to believe that they will earn their risk adjusted returns. Our nuclear power plant, which took more than 12 years to build and bring on-line, was funded by private debt. Whether private investors would put up the money for a rail project that is estimated to take 10 years to build is unknown. Heck, whether they will put up any money remains to be seen, inasmuch as the financial viability of the project is uncertain.
I was part of a team that pushed for the Dallas Area Rapid Transit referendum. We told everyone, probably because we believed it, that we would build the light rail system without any federal money. Ha! That notion did not last very long, primary because the planners had grossly under estimated the cost of the system. I suspect the promotors of Texas High Speed Rail will have the same insights if the project gets off the ground.
A Dallas to Houston line will face some major challenges in addition to attracting the capital to built the project.
With the exception of the college town of Bryan, there are no large communities between Dallas and Houston along the proposed line. Accordingly, the success of the project with depend on attracting end point riders, which means that the rail system will have to compete directly against Southwest Airlines for these passengers.
Dallas is two communities. One is largely affluent; the other is largely struggling. The affluent folks live in an arch that sweeps north and east from Arlington through the northern half of Dallas County and Collin County, which includes affluent north Dallas.
A train from downtown Dallas to Houston goes through the southern portion of the county. Even if the promotors built a station in southern Dallas County, it is not likely to draw many patrons. Potential passengers from affluent "Dallas" would have to drive into downtown Dallas to catch the train. This means that they would have to drive by Dallas Love Field, which is the home of Southwest Airlines. Why they would do that is problematic. Moreover, for now at least, there are not enough people living downtown Dallas and downtown Houston to constitute a major potential customer base for the train.
I hope they make a go of it; I hope it lays the groundwork for a line from San Antonio to Dallas. But they have some real challenges to overcome. Attracting private capital is just one of them.
Sam1 A train from downtown Dallas to Houston goes through the southern portion of the county. Even if the promotors built a station in southern Dallas County, it is not likely to draw many patrons. Potential passengers from affluent "Dallas" would have to drive into downtown Dallas to catch the train. This means that they would have to drive by Dallas Love Field, which is the home of Southwest Airlines. Why they would do that is problematic. Moreover, for now at least, there are not enough people living downtown Dallas and downtown Houston to constitute a major potential customer base for the train. I hope they make a go of it; I hope it lays the groundwork for a line from San Antonio to Dallas. But they have some real challenges to overcome. Attracting private capital is just one of them.
Parts of the above are kind of dated. First, since Sam1 left the DFW area, DART has implemented direct Light Rail trains from Collin County through Downtown and onto DFW Airport. The so called "Orange Line". Not really an option for someone that lives in Collin County because they are slow. However they intend to add Wylie via Plano and using the fomer Cotton Belt line to the Airport and then onto Ft> Worth, heavy rail commuter service which should be faster then light rail and more direct to DFW airport from Collin County. They are looking at a Private - Public partnership for that with a Private Operator. No idea when that will get off the ground. The point is here that more than likely any High Speed Rail initiative in Dallas or Ft. Worth will probably use DFW airport as a terminus or starting point because North Texas is setting up the ancillary transit systems to all feed into DFW Airport. It is kind of a logical choice since DFW Airport is equal distance between Dallas and Ft. Worth. Additionally, plans are to speed up the TRE rail line with upgrades and probably build a spur North to DFW Airport at somepoint for high speed / express service. Those plans, likewise just talking points now.
Also, wanted to comment that both American and Delta compete with Southwest on the DFW to San Antonio and Houston routes. It is not a Southwest monopoly. I work for a consulting company in Dallas and we all fly American vs Southwest to Houston. Big reason is it is easier and DFW is in a whole better neighborhood then Dallas Love Field. Another big reason is the Advantage Frequent Flyer program is light years ahead of anything that Southwest offers. I have no doubt that most small business and government folks fly Southwest. Medium to Large business I would bet flys American. American is a lot more neutral than Southwest is on rail passenger competition. Southwest only opposed it back a decade or so ago because of the government funding AND their Texas routes were a big money maker at the time. Southwest has grown far beyond Texas since that time and I have my doubts beyond Herb Keller (founder) that they even care anymore about it.
I have not gone very far from Dallas. I get back to the city at least once a week. And I read the Dallas Morning News every day.
I am aware of the status of DART's Orange line to DFW (I have ridden the Orange and Green lines), and I have kept abreast of the plans for commuter rail on the former Cotten Belt line, which has been getting a lot of push back, and has some real financial challenges.
I don't recall from the news article any detailed plans for the high speed line from Dallas to Houston. However, the article said that the plan is to upgrade an existing rail line. If they follow the last passenger rail line from Dallas to Houston, it would be the old SP line through Corsicana and Bryan. Corsicana is one of the largest towns between Dallas and Houston, and Bryan has heaps of college students who probably would ride the train.
I doubt that a private developer would be able to get sufficient monies to build an entirely new railroad from the Metroplex to Houston. The folks in California learned that building a new railroad from scratch was not feasible.
If the line begins at Centre Point, it would probably run over the TRE to Dallas and then to Houston. This would slow the train down significantly. Even private developers have to win support from the biggest city in the region. I doubt that they would bypass Dallas.
Southwest is still the dominate air carrier between Dallas and Houston. Clearly, where one lives in the Metroplex will determine in part whether he or she flies out of DFW or Love Field, and the frequently flyer program will also influence once choice.
Interestingly, Megabus has entered the picture and may be attracting people who otherwise would have driven from Dallas to Houston. They are offering 9 scheduled runs per day, with an advertised running time of 4 hours and 15 minutes. Also, Greyhound has stepped up its game between Dallas and Houston with on-board wifi and reserved seats in an appeal to get more people to leave the driving to them.
Speaking of Dallas, Megabus switched its Metroplex stop from downtown Dallas, across from Union Station, to Grand Prairie. Do you know why they made the move?
I am not understanding why the High Speed rail train would have to transverse from DFW to Dallas? Why not head South directly from DFW to Houston? Why is there an assumption it has to follow existing track routings? As for Megabus it has it's own market. We've been over the Bus vs Train argument more than a few times on this website. Some crossover between the two but not a lot.
Sam1Private investors will put up the money for a capital project if they have a strong reason to believe that they will earn their risk adjusted returns. Our nuclear power plant, which took more than 12 years to build and bring on-line, was funded by private debt. Whether private investors would put up the money for a rail project that is estimated to take 10 years to build is unknown. Heck, whether they will put up any money remains to be seen, inasmuch as the financial viability of the project is uncertain.
Sure, selling power as a regulated monopoly, they could be sure the revenue stream would be there.
If you want to improve the odds of attracting private capital, shortening the permit/design/build timeline as much as possible would be a big help.
oltmannd Sam1Private investors will put up the money for a capital project if they have a strong reason to believe that they will earn their risk adjusted returns. Our nuclear power plant, which took more than 12 years to build and bring on-line, was funded by private debt. Whether private investors would put up the money for a rail project that is estimated to take 10 years to build is unknown. Heck, whether they will put up any money remains to be seen, inasmuch as the financial viability of the project is uncertain. Sure, selling power as a regulated monopoly, they could be sure the revenue stream would be there. If you want to improve the odds of attracting private capital, shortening the permit/design/build timeline as much as possible would be a big help.
Granted to an extent. However, getting an operating license for the plant was not a cinch, due in large part to Three Mile Island. Moreover, there was no guarantee that we could get the plant into the rate base. As it turned out, it required some creative accounting.
Subsequently, we built three 750 megawatt coal fired steam electric stations for the competitive market in Texas. The lead time was six to eight years. The investors stayed with the company because we had a good story to tell them.
Clearly, the shorter the time period to put the asset in play, the more likelihood one can attract private capital.
CMStPnP I am not understanding why the High Speed rail train would have to transverse from DFW to Dallas? Why not head South directly from DFW to Houston? Why is there an assumption it has to follow existing track routings? As for Megabus it has it's own market. We've been over the Bus vs Train argument more than a few times on this website. Some crossover between the two but not a lot.
The cost of building a new line from scratch would be multiple times the cost of expanding existing rights-of-way, thus the argument for following existing rail lines. Moreover, bypassing downtown Dallas would be politically dangerous.
I am familiar with two proposals for investor owned or supported passenger rail. One is in Italy; the other is in Florida. Both groups propose using existing rail facilities for all or most of their routes.
DART's light rail lines, with the possible exception of the Orange Line to DFW, as well as the downtown sections, and maybe the Ledbetter extension, were built on existing or abandoned rail lines. They could not have afforded to built it along scratch rights-of-way.
A train from the Metroplex to Houston will have to compete with the airlines and the bus carriers. It will also have to coax people out of their cars and trucks, which will not be easy in Texas. I just came back from Dallas. I-35 is being completely rebuilt from the Mexican border to the Canadian border. That's what most Texans want to see. Poll after poll shows Texans want better highways. None of this rules out a train, but the options will be a serious challenge.
You would have to explain why it would be politically dangerous to avoid Dallas? Also, land is dirt cheap in Texas it is not anything near approaching land values in California. Further, just South of DFW is the less urbanized route to DFW Airport. I would agree at some point they would want to connect DFW terminal to both Dallas and Ft Worth but right now as it stands DFW Airport has the space for a high speed rail terminal, the passenger count to support it and room for additional parking. I can't see them building to either downtown area Dallas or Ft. Worth as it doesn't make any financial sense when you have a terminal equal distance between the cities with a relatively easy approach to it from the South. I could be proven wrong and we'll have to see what the final plans are. Houston and San Antonio are smaller airports but even Houston Intercontinental is large enough it might merit a stop, IMO.
CMStPnP You would have to explain why it would be politically dangerous to avoid Dallas? Also, land is dirt cheap in Texas it is not anything near approaching land values in California. Further, just South of DFW is the less urbanized route to DFW Airport. I would agree at some point they would want to connect DFW terminal to both Dallas and Ft Worth but right now as it stands DFW Airport has the space for a high speed rail terminal, the passenger count to support it and room for additional parking. I can't see them building to either downtown area Dallas or Ft. Worth as it doesn't make any financial sense when you have a terminal equal distance between the cities with a relatively easy approach to it from the South. I could be proven wrong and we'll have to see what the final plans are. Houston and San Antonio are smaller airports but even Houston Intercontinental is large enough it might merit a stop, IMO.
No one knows for sure how it will play out or whether it will play out. I don't find your scenario plausible.
The name of the airport that you are suggesting as an anchor for the train is the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. It is not the Fort Worth/Dallas International Airport. Nor is it called the Mid-Cities or Metroplex Airport. Dallas was and is a major voice on the airport board. The light rail line that will serve the airport is the Dallas Area Rapid Transit line. The major stakeholder in the TRE is DART, although the T owns part of it, and it plans to build a line from Fort Worth to the Airport, running for the most part along an existing rail line. Dallas is the largest political, economic, and social factor in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. It has had a major voice in the Metroplex, and it is like to continue to have a major voice.
If the line ran straight south from the mid-cities, there would be little reason for people in Dallas or its northern suburbs, who are amongst some of the areas most affluent citizens, to use it. Driving to DFW airport to catch a train to Houston would not make a lot of sense.
According to several recent articles in the business press, land across the U.S., especially farm or potential farm land, is not dirt cheap. One of the outcomes of the Fed's super low interest rates has been a run-up in the price of agricultural land. This has been true for Texas as well. It is not the only driver, of course, but it is a factor according to the experts.
To make the line viable, i.e. financial successful, the trains will eventually have to connect Fort Worth, Dallas, and Houston, and I believe that the only viable route, i.e. one that the investors will be able to afford, is along existing rail lines, with some straightening of the lines south of Dallas.
A more interesting question is why the promotors are thinking Dallas to Houston. A potentially more viable route, i.e. more population, would be Dallas, Ft. Worth, Austin, and San Antonio. DOT's vision is for the so-call Texas triangle, which would be Dallas to San Antonio, with a cut-off to Houston near Austin.
As you say, we'll have to wait until it happens, if indeed it happens at all. That is the $64,000 question.
Well Sam1, despite your assertions the Metroplex is continuing to move forwards to making DFW Airport the intermodal hub. I am skeptical of your point that Dallas is in control and there will be a terminus there.
So here is news again of TEXRail being developed which is using the former Cotton Belt line to build from the Dallas North Suburbs to DFW Airport a direct rail line as well as from Ft Worth South-Southeast suburbs. They just got a Federal Grant for preliminary engineering from the Fort Worth side of the joint project.....
http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/passenger/commuter-regional/fort-worth-tex-rail-gets-federal-grant.html?channel=55#.UDxDZNZlQzo
So again it seems to me that the North Texas Council of Governments are building regional rail to intersect with DFW Airport making it the most logical choice for a High Speed Rail terminus.
I also don't understand your assertion that folks would not drive there to ride a high speed train when they already drive there to catch a plane to Houston or San Antonio. Why would they drive there to fly but not drive there to take a train? Whats the logic there? Anyways they are making DFW Airport increasingly convienent for the whole Metroplex to use as a transportation hub.
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