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China to Bid on HSR in United States

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 10:28 AM
schlimm

oltmannd
HarveyK400
Now who's going to bury whom, Ronald Reagan?
I think you have your politicians mixed up. Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev said "We will bury you!". Ronald Reagan said, "...tear down this wall!"

 

I think you missed the sarcastic reversal..

...wouldn't be the first time....!

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Posted by henry6 on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 10:32 AM

One other thing---find the $2.75 piece at Lowes----but in order to get it then have to drive for 20 minutes to "save" .25 cents----but how much $$$ got drained out'n the gas tank in the process?

I have seen this all too often, known people who do that kind of shopping. 

Four guys wander into a bar in Ireland and see the sign, "all drinks 10 cents".  They saddle up to the bar, order four martinis, pay the 40 cents, down the drinks and reorder; still 40 cents for four martinis! The ask the bar keep what's the deal and he explains he won the Irish Sweepstakes, was already a billionaire, so why not spread the joy.  The four guys noticed that at the other end of the bar were a couple of guys not drinking.  They asked the barkeep why and he replied, "Oh, they are American waiting for Happy Hour when drinks are half priced."

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Posted by BT CPSO 266 on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 10:41 AM

Well we are #1 in freight rail, but we lack expertise in design and building of High Speed Rail. I guess if everything is done here, we should listen to the experts that know HSR.

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 10:42 AM
henry6

That all is a very niave belief that it all works that way.  What is a fair return?  Others  elsewhere seem to be more patient in the long run and will take less than what our investors believe is fair in the short run; our investors what quick huge returns as soon as possible with no long term committment to quality of product or service nor to longevity of investment. And that money in FDIC accounts means nothing to this argument: the money is being used by investment bankers to shore up the return on investment, the fact that the government insures it means nothing to the investment community except to take advantage of the money and the money's depositors.

People will go to Lowes to pay $2.95 on a Home Depot item at $3.00!  The only time the American buyer becomes concerned with quality or service is after the act of buying.  And as far as the buy from China who then buys corn from US to buy car from Germany, is a great theory which doen't always work in practice; we've allowed it to go too far without covering our internal nut.  The fact is that American investors in search of quick and high returns will go for off shore manufacturing.  And they can do it because the American buyer is willing to buy so cheap. Then we all stand around pointing fingers at the other guy for not having jobs and income in this country. There is a good arguement for interdependence but it also has to be tempered with responsible management.

No matter how you slice it, trying to "keep jobs here" is protectionism. Can you find me an economist who thinks protectionism is good? Can you find me one who thinks the protectionism practiced in the 30s - whose whole purpose was to "keep jobs here" - didn't make things worse. All that's going on in the world is manufacturing chasing cheap labor. It started right after WWII when the US had ALL the manufacturing. Then it went to Japan and Germany. Remember when "made in Japan" = junk? As Japan's economy grew, labor got expensive and it moved around the Pacific Rim. Soon, Korea and China won't be cheap, either. In fact, the Korean car manufacturers are assembling here, now, because it isn't as cheap as it was even recently. The last frontier for cheap labor will be Africa. All they need is civil stability, transportation and communication and it will all leave the Pacific rim for there.

You can thank cheap transportation for this. A shirt you buy from Lands End may very well have started as cotton in West Africa (even with price supports, US cotton has a hard time competing), been woven into cloth and dyed in the US, shipped to China or Costa Rica to be sewn into a shirt, then packaged and shipped back to Wisconsin for sale.

And the worlds steamship, rail and trucking companies will make it happen.

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 11:24 AM

Don: We are talking railroad cars, ROW engineering and infrastructure. The  European Union countries are able to supply their own equipment.  Last I looked, they have pretty high labor costs, about equal to ours.  They buy European rail because they can.  They are still in the business of manufacturing and haven't "outsourced" everything.  We will have to buy upgrades for HSR abroad from abroad or hopefully from US divisions of European companies because we have largely been out of that business for years and have zero experience. 

Economics teaches us that a buck spent multiplies within the economy, but only when spent primarily within that country.

Re: China.  here is a link to a good article by Paul Krugman, a Nobel economist.

 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/opinion/15krugman.html

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 2:40 PM
schlimm

Re: China.  here is a link to a good article by Paul Krugman, a Nobel economist.

 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/opinion/15krugman.html

Yes. China is cheating.
schlimm
Economics teaches us that a buck spent multiplies within the economy, but only when spent primarily within that country.
And trade means that for every buck you send over, one comes back. If you constrain it, you sub-optimize - if everyone plays fair.

I would not constrain rail car design and build needlessly. I would go with the best value. There is no intrinsic reason that construction could not be in the US.

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Posted by henry6 on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 2:52 PM

Balance of trade....used to be an oft touted stat but since we now import more than we export, we don't talk about it.  We do export a lot of "culture", i.e. movies, tv shows, recorded music, "art and culture", rather than manufacutred goods and raw materials as in days of old.  I believe both the Greek and Roman Empires fell when they had to resort to exporting "art and culture" rather than manufactured goods and raw materials.  Can we bring ourselve back from this precipice and save our Empire?

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 3:04 PM

oltmannd
And trade means that for every buck you send over, one comes back. If you constrain it, you sub-optimize - if everyone plays fair.

 

Don: I believe you are confounding balance of trade with balance of payments.  We are running (and have done so for years) an enormous trade deficit annually.  Payments balance b/c China and other nations send back the dollars to buy out public (and some private) debt.  Very different matters.

oltmannd
Yes. China is cheating.

 

Rather a glib response for a very serious concern.

 

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Posted by Anonymous on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 4:10 PM

schlimm

oltmannd
Yes. China is cheating.

 

Rather a glib response for a very serious concern.

I read the Krugman piece that you linked, and have a couple questions.  Is China actually cheating or are they simply getting the best of us in the arena of world competition?  I don’t quite follow how the charge of them cheating is made.  What rules are they violating, and whose rules are they?  Are they doing something they promised not to do?  Are they violating international law?

 

Krugman’s suggestion of a 25% surcharge on Chinese imports is intended to retaliate with the aim of improving our economy.  But what will that 25% surcharge do to our consumption in the U.S., and how will that drop in consumption affect our economy?

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 8:24 PM
schlimm

oltmannd
And trade means that for every buck you send over, one comes back. If you constrain it, you sub-optimize - if everyone plays fair.

 

Don: I believe you are confounding balance of trade with balance of payments.  We are running (and have done so for years) an enormous trade deficit annually.  Payments balance b/c China and other nations send back the dollars to buy out public (and some private) debt.  Very different matters.

oltmannd
Yes. China is cheating.

 

Rather a glib response for a very serious concern.

Would you prefer "not playing fair"? It's that simple. They won't let their currency float or otherwise value it to the market. If you want to do free trade, you need free currency. They are cheating.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 8:26 PM
schlimm
Don: I believe you are confounding balance of trade with balance of payments.  We are running (and have done so for years) an enormous trade deficit annually.  Payments balance b/c China and other nations send back the dollars to buy out public (and some private) debt.  Very different matters.
Yes and no. The payments have to balance, the trade in goods doesn't. The difference is made up by things other than goods.

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 8:28 PM
henry6
Balance of trade....used to be an oft touted stat but since we now import more than we export, we don't talk about it.  We do export a lot of "culture", i.e. movies, tv shows, recorded music, "art and culture", rather than manufacutred goods and raw materials as in days of old.  I believe both the Greek and Roman Empires fell when they had to resort to exporting "art and culture" rather than manufactured goods and raw materials.  Can we bring ourselve back from this precipice and save our Empire?
Did you know our trade deficit is almost exactly equal to our imported oil?

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 8:51 PM

oltmannd
Did you know our trade deficit is almost exactly equal to our imported oil?

 

Quite true but see this:

 http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/intlpic20090723/

Thru May, 09, 83% of our non-oil trade deficit was with China. It gets worse: In Jan. 2010, almost half our total trade deficit, including oil, was with China.

BTW, I guess I didn't catch your earlier sarcasm (also not for the first time).

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, March 17, 2010 11:13 AM
schlimm
Thru May, 09, 83% of our non-oil trade deficit was with China. It gets worse: In Jan. 2010, almost half our total trade deficit, including oil, was with China.
That doesn't bother me so much. You don't have to be balanced with each partner, just balanced overall. But, China has a huge net trade surplus with everybody, not just us, so we're back to that currency thing.

The one thing that we're really good at producing is food, and that's the one thing that scarier than oil to be dependent on as an import, so it's almost understandable why countries get protective of their home-grown food supply.

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Posted by HarveyK400 on Wednesday, March 17, 2010 12:51 PM

oltmannd
schlimm
Thru May, 09, 83% of our non-oil trade deficit was with China. It gets worse: In Jan. 2010, almost half our total trade deficit, including oil, was with China.
That doesn't bother me so much. You don't have to be balanced with each partner, just balanced overall. But, China has a huge net trade surplus with everybody, not just us, so we're back to that currency thing.

The one thing that we're really good at producing is food, and that's the one thing that scarier than oil to be dependent on as an import, so it's almost understandable why countries get protective of their home-grown food supply.

 

I don't know the source of a story told by a friend in international trade a few years ago already; but apparently China has asked to be repaid in commodities such as corn because the $US isn't worth that much.  This coincides with the trans-Asian HSR proposal; and may be how any deal here may be structured.

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:10 PM
HarveyK400
I don't know the source of a story told by a friend in international trade a few years ago already; but apparently China has asked to be repaid in commodities such as corn because the $US isn't worth that much.  This coincides with the trans-Asian HSR proposal; and may be how any deal here may be structured.
Sounds like they are expecting us to have a touch of inflation - stimulus chickens coming home to roost? (maybe we should feed the corn to the stimulus chickens?)

Did I read recently that GE partners with an Chinese rail equipment manufacturer? Maybe the Chinese won't bid directly...

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Posted by BNSFwatcher on Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:46 PM

Who next?  Kenya?  Malaysia?  Illinois, I'll bet!

Hays

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Posted by HarveyK400 on Wednesday, March 17, 2010 3:44 PM

oltmannd
Sounds like they are expecting us to have a touch of inflation - stimulus chickens coming home to roost? (maybe we should feed the corn to the stimulus chickens?)

Just to clarify and deflate the knee-jerk remark, taking the debt in trade began years before Obama when Bush was running up the debt for Iraq and Homeland Security (expanding government).  Admittedly the situation hasn't improved.; and both China and Europe want to see better banking regulation.

Maybe China is just being nice now to avoid he cost of re-engineering everything and manufacturing to GE's specs.  This is a transfer of technology and gives GE a short-term profit, both of which will come back to bite us.  We'll see if GE walks away from the business in a couple years or is bought by Chinese investors.

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Posted by blownout cylinder on Wednesday, March 17, 2010 4:34 PM

oltmannd

Did I read recently that GE partners with an Chinese rail equipment manufacturer? Maybe the Chinese won't bid directly...

I can see them also partnering with someone else besides GM----end up having some Korean/Chinese/German mix----

----or Japanese/Chinese---

---or----oh bother---

It will be interesting to see just who else throws their hat into the ring. From the looks of things there could be some interesting times ahead

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