Another "What if..." question-the Espee

[bobwilcox]

IMHO the Espee had lost the ability to deploy their assets wisely by the early 1980s.  After many decades of success The Golden Empire was beaten down by a changing world and their own internal focus. The emphasis had changed from producing transportation to satisfy customers to operating their own  bureaucracy. No one was really at fault.  Business are born, they grow and then they die. Just like the Pennsy and the Green Bay Packers.

[Kevin C. Smith]

Been idily cogitating things lately and this scenario wandered in...If SP hadn't lost its non rail assets in the abortive AT&SF merger might it have held on long enough to avoid takeover by the UP? Now, I'm not saying they wouldn't have wanted to merge with the UP anyway but, depending on the timeline, I could see a Southern Pacific strong enough to stand alone having a couple of possible effects.

1) UP/ATSF merger followed (or preceded) by a BN/SP marriage. After all, UP had the WP's route to the Bay area and would still have gotten a presence in the port of LA/Long Beach with the AT&SF. BN, meanwhile, would have gained a huge presence in California (the world's 6th largest economy, after all) and still had a share of the SoCal container traffic.

2) If an independant SP would have delayed the megers in the western US, now might the Conrail merger have played out in the east? After all, a 4 system west would be enough of a mismatch with a 3 system east-but 4/2?

Any speculations?