Montreal, Maine, and Atlantic--will it survive?

[Anonymous]

Greetings from Maine,

I am looking for some information regarding the MM&A. It seems to me that in its current state, this is a hopeless property. The old CP mainline is long with few customers and CN has inked a 20 year agreement (with only 19 to go) to handle all of New Brunswick Southern's traffic to Montreal, freezing the MM&A out of the bridge business. At present, the MM&A is running two trains a day over this line of about 60-80 cars each.

The old B&A portion of the system has some traffic, but nothing major. I *think* it can sit on its own bottom, but with the need to support the bridge line across nothern Maine, I don't think it is enough.

Add to that the dismal performance of the Guilford connection near Bangor, which gets the MM&A to the rest of the lower 48, and you have a rough state of affairs.

Any insight out there?

[Anonymous]

Greetings from Maine,

I am looking for some information regarding the MM&A. It seems to me that in its current state, this is a hopeless property. The old CP mainline is long with few customers and CN has inked a 20 year agreement (with only 19 to go) to handle all of New Brunswick Southern's traffic to Montreal, freezing the MM&A out of the bridge business. At present, the MM&A is running two trains a day over this line of about 60-80 cars each.

The old B&A portion of the system has some traffic, but nothing major. I *think* it can sit on its own bottom, but with the need to support the bridge line across nothern Maine, I don't think it is enough.

Add to that the dismal performance of the Guilford connection near Bangor, which gets the MM&A to the rest of the lower 48, and you have a rough state of affairs.

Any insight out there?

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by racehorse

Greetings from Maine,

I am looking for some information regarding the MM&A. It seems to me that in its current state, this is a hopeless property. The old CP mainline is long with few customers and CN has inked a 20 year agreement (with only 19 to go) to handle all of New Brunswick Southern's traffic to Montreal, freezing the MM&A out of the bridge business. At present, the MM&A is running two trains a day over this line of about 60-80 cars each.

The old B&A portion of the system has some traffic, but nothing major. I *think* it can sit on its own bottom, but with the need to support the bridge line across nothern Maine, I don't think it is enough.

Add to that the dismal performance of the Guilford connection near Bangor, which gets the MM&A to the rest of the lower 48, and you have a rough state of affairs.

Any insight out there?

I wouldn't hold my breath. The MM&A has lost even more traffic than you have accounted for and with the degeneration of the State economy up there it isn't coming back. I would look to see major abandonments and/or possibly a sale of all or part of the MM&A within a year (by this time next year perhaps).

LC

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by racehorse

Greetings from Maine,

I am looking for some information regarding the MM&A. It seems to me that in its current state, this is a hopeless property. The old CP mainline is long with few customers and CN has inked a 20 year agreement (with only 19 to go) to handle all of New Brunswick Southern's traffic to Montreal, freezing the MM&A out of the bridge business. At present, the MM&A is running two trains a day over this line of about 60-80 cars each.

The old B&A portion of the system has some traffic, but nothing major. I *think* it can sit on its own bottom, but with the need to support the bridge line across nothern Maine, I don't think it is enough.

Add to that the dismal performance of the Guilford connection near Bangor, which gets the MM&A to the rest of the lower 48, and you have a rough state of affairs.

Any insight out there?

I wouldn't hold my breath. The MM&A has lost even more traffic than you have accounted for and with the degeneration of the State economy up there it isn't coming back. I would look to see major abandonments and/or possibly a sale of all or part of the MM&A within a year (by this time next year perhaps).

LC

[Anonymous]

Limitedclear,

Do you have any specific information, or is this just conjecture based on your view from wherever you are located? The Maine economy is not in bad shape. In fact, we have weathered the downturn better than most states. The mills are getting healthier. There is an expansion in Jay (on Guilford) and the mill in Millinocket (on MM&A) appears ready to get going--meetings with the unions are schedule for next month.

Reports are that MM&A has regained some of the traffic lost to trucks, who handle 90%(!) of Maine tonnage--far more than any state other than Hawaii. There is business to acquire.

To me, the key question is how to support the former CP across Maine between St. John and Montreal. Can bridge traffic be built? How?

[Anonymous]

Limitedclear,

Do you have any specific information, or is this just conjecture based on your view from wherever you are located? The Maine economy is not in bad shape. In fact, we have weathered the downturn better than most states. The mills are getting healthier. There is an expansion in Jay (on Guilford) and the mill in Millinocket (on MM&A) appears ready to get going--meetings with the unions are schedule for next month.

Reports are that MM&A has regained some of the traffic lost to trucks, who handle 90%(!) of Maine tonnage--far more than any state other than Hawaii. There is business to acquire.

To me, the key question is how to support the former CP across Maine between St. John and Montreal. Can bridge traffic be built? How?

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by racehorse

Limitedclear,

Do you have any specific information, or is this just conjecture based on your view from wherever you are located? The Maine economy is not in bad shape. In fact, we have weathered the downturn better than most states. The mills are getting healthier. There is an expansion in Jay (on Guilford) and the mill in Millinocket (on MM&A) appears ready to get going--meetings with the unions are schedule for next month.

Reports are that MM&A has regained some of the traffic lost to trucks, who handle 90%(!) of Maine tonnage--far more than any state other than Hawaii. There is business to acquire.

To me, the key question is how to support the former CP across Maine between St. John and Montreal. Can bridge traffic be built? How?

The answer to your question is, yes. I have a lot of specifics, but sorry, I can't share them in a public forum for various reasons. And, no, it isn't just conjecture. The following is my own opinion based upon public information.

As to bridge traffic, there won't be much anytime soon. Based upon the secondhand information I have the former bridge traffic to St. John is gone as a result of the Irving's contract with CN and the sale of Kent Lines to Tropical Shipping Lines. In addition, there is the well publicized issues in the BAR bankruptcy over the paper traffic from Madawaska (Fraser Paper) and the Bankruptcy of Great Northern Paper. The partial reactivation of Millinocket won't fix all of that. MM&A has lost a LOT of the former BAR traffic (through no real fault of it's own) as a result of lingering fallout from the prior owners.

Many of the major paper companies (IP, GP, Weyerhauser, etc) are hard at work consolidating and fine tuning their operations after the mergers of the last five years. Older mills are falling by the wayside. Much of the timber reserves in the immediate vicinity of Millinocket have been sold to the Irving interests making trucking from longer distances a serious cost for MIllinocket and making it's long term survival a continued question.

All things considered, I think the MM&A has a bit more track than traffic and I see changes coming. I would also suggest you take a look at the BAR/MM&A thread at www.Railroad.net for additional insight.

LC

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by racehorse

Limitedclear,

Do you have any specific information, or is this just conjecture based on your view from wherever you are located? The Maine economy is not in bad shape. In fact, we have weathered the downturn better than most states. The mills are getting healthier. There is an expansion in Jay (on Guilford) and the mill in Millinocket (on MM&A) appears ready to get going--meetings with the unions are schedule for next month.

Reports are that MM&A has regained some of the traffic lost to trucks, who handle 90%(!) of Maine tonnage--far more than any state other than Hawaii. There is business to acquire.

To me, the key question is how to support the former CP across Maine between St. John and Montreal. Can bridge traffic be built? How?

The answer to your question is, yes. I have a lot of specifics, but sorry, I can't share them in a public forum for various reasons. And, no, it isn't just conjecture. The following is my own opinion based upon public information.

As to bridge traffic, there won't be much anytime soon. Based upon the secondhand information I have the former bridge traffic to St. John is gone as a result of the Irving's contract with CN and the sale of Kent Lines to Tropical Shipping Lines. In addition, there is the well publicized issues in the BAR bankruptcy over the paper traffic from Madawaska (Fraser Paper) and the Bankruptcy of Great Northern Paper. The partial reactivation of Millinocket won't fix all of that. MM&A has lost a LOT of the former BAR traffic (through no real fault of it's own) as a result of lingering fallout from the prior owners.

Many of the major paper companies (IP, GP, Weyerhauser, etc) are hard at work consolidating and fine tuning their operations after the mergers of the last five years. Older mills are falling by the wayside. Much of the timber reserves in the immediate vicinity of Millinocket have been sold to the Irving interests making trucking from longer distances a serious cost for MIllinocket and making it's long term survival a continued question.

All things considered, I think the MM&A has a bit more track than traffic and I see changes coming. I would also suggest you take a look at the BAR/MM&A thread at www.Railroad.net for additional insight.

LC

[Anonymous]

Thank you, LC. I will check Railroad.net.

[Anonymous]

Thank you, LC. I will check Railroad.net.