An Interesting ViewPoint on Energy Consumption and the FUTURE

[Anonymous]

Here's a link to interesting perspective (some might even say FACT) concerning the topic of "peak oil" and the impact it will have on the near future. And yes, the word "railroad" is uttered in the text. It's a quick read and might I say it's worth it...

http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary13.html

-j

[Overmod]

Something to remember is that much of the 'peak oil' concern is not far removed from Chicken Little. There are several target ranges for various kinds of oil stock and refined products at which alternatives become cost-effective, and they are not shockingly 'out of line' with where oil prices have gone in the last couple of years, and even more notably in the last few days.

A much more interesting topic is to investigate which companies have been engaging in a very active search to find/acquire key technologies and processes for, as an example, coal gasification, or synthesis of 'biodiesel' that can be used effectively as a primary vehicle fuel (e.g. with low sulfur, adequate injection-system lubricosity, etc.)

As a guide, somewhere around the equivalent of about $2.40 per gallon of diesel, you'll have the economics in place to give you all the fuel supply you want for (compression-ignition or external-combustion) transportation. I wouldn't place any bets at all on the price skyrocketing, or the supply dwindling, or seeing effective fuel shortfalls as more and more oil goes to China or such places with Ross Perot's giant sucking sound.

There's more to this than alarmists trying to promote their punditry or sell their overhyped newsletters (no insult either intended or given to Mr. Kunstler here)

[chad thomas]

Plain simple fact. Right NOW it is cheaper to use gas/diesel than other alternatives. As pointed out by Overmod though, we are aproaching the threshold where alternatives will be competitive.

[Anonymous]

Simple fact - if you pay $10 for extraction of $9.99 worth of energy then your economy is doomed...

Current EOEI (energy obtained for energy invested) for oil is about 5. It was about 50 in the 60ties. On some wells EOEI is below 1 - meaning that more energy is spent then obtained. It works thanks to the fact that electricity is cheaper then fossil energy - so still you make $ by doing it.

Hubbard's crash is very, very real. Just put numbers togather...

[Anonymous]

More nuts for the squirrel farm!

Seriously, we've been subjected to this "the world will end tommorrow" dogma ad nauseum for decades now. The fact is, as market prices for oil climb, alternative markets will thrive. These alternative markets for transport fuels include new discoveries of petroleum, coal derived liquid fuels, and biofuels. Then there is the growing body of evidence that petroleum is of an abiotic origin, meaning there is probably countless barrels deep underground just waiting to be tapped. The Russians adapted this non-biogenic idea into their oil exploration techniques, and they went from being a net improter of oil in the early 20th century to a net exporter of oil today, for the simple fact that they drilled into basement rock considered impossible for holding petroleum by leftist Western geologists. We are just starting to discover this new exploration concept in the U.S.

I notice the website is dedicated to bashing Christians more than taking the time for rational debate. Everyone who claims to have an open mind should take these diatribes with a chunk of salt.

[CopCarSS]

I say "Let the Oil run out!" Perhaps then we'll get some good ol' coal fired steamers running again! Hey! Stop laughing! During OPEC there was a threshhold where coal fired steam could be competitve...it almost got there, but not quite.

As a bonus, all the folks with their Excursions, Suburbans, and H2's will be clamoring for public transport, and I think rail would play a big part of that. Then we wouldn't have to listen to all the doom and gloom about Amtrak.

Really, and truthfuly, though, I see Ethanol being the big push if oil ever became really scarce. That'd be good, too, since we might keep some of the farm land we're turning into starter castles and Walmarts at the moment.

Chris
Denver, CO

[greyhounds]

In 1875 the only commerical petroleum production in the world was in western Pennsylvania - nobody in the world knew if commercial quantaties of oil were located anywhere else.

Also in 1875, "Henry E. Wrigley, the head of the Pennsylvania Geological Survey, issued a doomsday warning that the state - and hence the world - production of oil had peaked and would soon experience a preciptious decline, aggrevating fears that had overshadowed the oil industry since its inception".

I'm not making this up. It's on page 197 of "Titan" by Ron Chernow. It's a biography of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. (Rockefeller once owned about half the Missouri Pacific. That one didn't do too well for him.)

We've been "running out" of oil ever since 1875. And has been stated on this thread, motor fuels can be readily made from other things besides "oil". It's just that the economics work out so that it's cheaper to use oil instead of soybeans right now.

[mvlandsw]

I remember talk of oil running out in the 1950's when I was in grade school. I thought that I had better buy a case of Three in One oil so I could keep my model trains running.

[Anonymous]

I’ll try not to get caught up in argument with the global warming is junk science crowd.

Those of you who can remember the 70’s oil embargo’s may remember the expert source for the oil industry was the Lundberg letter which published technical and business analysis about the industry for the oil industry. It was written by Jan Lundberg who has been warning about peak oil for several years now. In a recent article, he explains why it is too late to head of calamity. He thinks in the next decade peak oil will cause a speculative panic. Prices will shoot up so high that oil using industries, trucking for example, can’t afford to operate. The chain reaction that sets off is worse than you can imagine.

It’s worse than you thought.
http://www.bluegreenearth.us/archive/article/2005/culture-change/lundberg-special1-2005.html

[greyhounds]

QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds

Originally posted by garyaiki

I’ll try not to get caught up in argument with the global warming is junk science crowd.

Those of you who can remember the 70’s oil embargo’s may remember the expert source for the oil industry was the Lundberg letter which published technical and business analysis about the industry for the oil industry. It was written by Jan Lundberg who has been warning about peak oil for several years now. In a recent article, he explains why it is too late to head of calamity. He thinks in the next decade peak oil will cause a speculative panic. Prices will shoot up so high that oil using industries, trucking for example, can’t afford to operate. The chain reaction that sets off is worse than you can imagine.

It’s worse than you thought.
http://www.bluegreenearth.us/archive/article/2005/culture-change/lundberg-special1-2005.html

"Buy Standard Oil, Buy Standard Oil". Seems like it would be a very good investment according to this guy from Arcata.

So if I read this right, and you're a logical, reasonable person, you've mortgaged everything you own and put the money into crude oil futures. You've also bought a lot of canned goods and have an energy efficient wood stove. If the people of Arcata let you burn wood.

What you'll do for light may become a problem. Keroseen lamps will, of course, be of no use at all. Whale oil lamps, well let's not even talk about that. Candles? No, they use tallow and a pig would have to die.

I guess we'll all have to freeze in the dark.

Seriously, there are very few "cliffs" in the world's economy. In fact, I can't think of one. Can you? We're not going to walk off a cliff. (Anybody remember the Y2K scare. I heard a nut on the radio say the sewers might not work. All city sewers work on gravity. The sky ain't gonna fall.)

Anybody remember the "Garbage Crisis" of the late 1980's. When we were "Running Out" of landfill space. Did not happen. But some people made a lot of money on that one. The U.S. of A can not realistically "Run Out" of landfill space. But some scaremongers convinced some politicians that there was a "crisis" and took millions to the bank.

The world demand for oil will continue to grow. The world supply of oil may go up, down or sideways. It can be replaced with other sources of fuel, and it eventually will be replaced. But this will happen in an orderly, market driven fashion.

And Mr. Lundberg has absolutely no, none, nada, zero knowledge of how much oil is in the ground or, really and truely, how much effort it will take to get it into my car. Which I'm going to replace soon. With either a Mustang (I like the new Mustangs!) or, more practically for a guy who has spent significant time hauling large, fast dogs around, an (Gasp!) Explorer.

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.

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