Cause of the East Palestine Derailment

[Euclid]

From what I gather from the news and through contacting the FRA is that on June 25, the NTSB will speak about the cause of the East Palestine derailment among other details.  Without getting into fine points of definition, I assume that this will be a probable cause.  I understand, at this point, NTSB has not announced any cause. 

 

Information from the FRA indicates that the FRA has either completed their investigation of the East Palestine derailment, or they have not.  In either case, the FRA intends to not release their final report until a time after the NTSB releases their final report on June 25.

 

New reporting indicates that the NTSB will make known their conclusion as to the cause of the derailment at their final meeting on June 25, under two reported scenarios:

 

1)   NTSB will announce the cause that they have determined at the June 25, meeting.

 

2)   NTSB will determine the cause, and release their findings of that cause at the June 25, meeting. 

 

I suspect the news source stating scenario #1 is correct, and that scenario #2 is incorrect. 

 

In any case, the NTSB itself has announced that they will hold their final meeting in the town of East Palestine, and will include meetings directly with the town residents, apparently in a kind of empathy for the town residents to recognize the hardship that they have endured because of the derailment. 

 

This comment is from Jennifer Homendy of the NTSB:

 

“The NTSB is returning to East Palestine for our final board meeting for the same reasons we went last summer: Because the communities most affected by this tragedy deserve to hear our findings in-person and in real-time,” Homendy said.

 

I expect there to be residents with questions that have never been answered.

 

https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NR20240206.aspx

[Overmod]

Ron, you posted the link to the downloaded copy of the NTSB pictures you saved on your computer.

You need to provide the link to the original in the dossier.

[Euclid]

The FRA is also conducting an investigation of the East Palestine derailment, and as I understand, they are expecting to release their report after the NTSB releases theirs in June. 

 

At the present, the NTSB has already released what would appear to support a conclusion that the derailment was caused by the failing bearing.  Although, I find nothing that actually states that to be the cause.  I also understand their position at this time as being that they have not determined the cause of the derailment.

 

But they have published a group of captioned photos that show a wheelset with one journal wrung off, as happens when a bearing incurs damage during overheating to the point of losing its ability to support its load.  Photos also show the journal, the bearing assembly, and the roller cage, all of which are heavily damaged from being heated to the point of softening.  

 

As I understand it, the bearing passed two detectors that showed a rising heat trend, but neither required any action to stop and inspect the car that was experiencing this trend.  Upon reaching East Palestine, the detector there required the train to be immediately stopped and inspected. Apparently, the train derailed 30-90 seconds after the detector warning to stop. 

 

At that time, the train experienced a U.D.E. application of the automatic brake at the moment when apparently, the derailment began to change the car alignment to the extent that  an air hose uncoupled. Prior to this U.D.E., according to the NTSB, the car with the failing bearing was running derailed, but roughly guided by the track for some distance of approximately 1,500 feet. This left flange marking on the tops of the rail and on many ties. 

 

Also, the photos and their captions indicate that the failed bearing had been leaking grease due to the failing seals long before the East Palestine derailment.  In my opinion, what this implies is that this loss of lubricant over time, finally lead to friction that caused the operating temperature to rise. 

 

These photos showing the leaking grease were apparently taken sometime prior to the derailment because they show the truck completely intact with wet grease on the outside of the journal box.  Apparently, these photos were taken as part of a routine car inspection by the Company.  If a routine inspection showed this condition of failing bearing seals and leaking bearing grease, what would be the normal response?

 

 

[Euclid]

BaltACD

So the MV Dali losing power is still a possible cause for East Palestine?

 

The information I posted comes directly from the NTSB by phone today.  I have no way of knowing what they will conclude about the cause.  But for now, they say the cause has not yet been determined.   

[BaltACD]

So the MV Dali losing power is still a possible cause for East Palestine?

[Euclid]

According to the NTSB, they will hold a board meeting on 6/25/24 at 9:30 AM, to discuss, determine, and announce the cause of the East Palestine derailment.  They have not yet determined any cause, including the theoretical cause being the failing bearing.