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The Russian Gap

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The Russian Gap
Posted by CMStPnP on Tuesday, October 10, 2023 9:51 PM

So I am curious because I think I have done enough research on this trying to find out myself.......

Does anyone know why they do not ship containerized frieght from the EU through Russia to China?

Second question, why is China building a railway specifically to avoid Russia to haul containerized frieght to Europe?    

The second question I just basically want to know is that political decision by China or is it a better or faster route to avoid Russia?   If it is political just say that without going off on a political arguments as to why.   I am only curious if it is an engineering issue with the gradients or something.

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, October 10, 2023 10:19 PM

Can't answer the political aspects of the questions.

Russian railroads, I believe, are constructed to 5 foot gauge.

Chinese railroads are constructed to standard gauge 4'8.5"

As best as I can tell - neither Russia or China really trust each other.

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Tuesday, October 10, 2023 11:18 PM

BaltACD

As best as I can tell - neither Russia or China really trust each other.

That's probably the correct answer. Not sure which is worse, China or Russia - both have been agressive with their neighbors.

It shouldn't be THAT difficult to transload containers from 4'8.5" gauge cars to 5' gauge cars.

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Posted by JayBee on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 12:49 AM

But it does have to be done twice once to Russian gauge in Kazahkstan and then back to standard gauge in Poland or Slovakia. Non-time sensitive goods will just be sent by sea to North European ports.

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Posted by wjstix on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 10:53 AM

If you want to send a container from Europe to America, it would be over 4000 from eastern Europe to the Pacific coast of Russia, then another 4000+ miles from there to Seattle. Just easier to ship it across the Atlantic (about 3000 mi.) to the east coast of the USA and put it on a train to where it's going.

Russia/USSR and China have had a strained relationship going back to when both were Communist countries. In a 1980s documentary (I think on PBS) about China, they showed the factory in China where they were still making steam engines. At one point, it showed them building bomb shelters, which one worker said was being built in case the Soviet Union attacked them.

Stix
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Posted by timz on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 11:36 AM

CMStPnP
why is China building a railway specifically to avoid Russia to haul containerized frieght to Europe?

Someone hopes to build a railway from China to Europe that doesn't go through any part of Russia? And work on it has started? What's the intended route?

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Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 11:58 AM

timz
What's the intended route?

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/trade-corridor-from-afghanistan-to-turkey-inaugurated/1337767

Also Google "Five Nations Railway Corridor".

 

Both of the above will be connected undoubtedly.   Iran is already building to connect with Iraq National Railways across it's border, which also connects with Turkey.....somewhere.

I understand the development motivation but the complete avoidance of Russian territory I was curious about.

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 1:06 PM

CMStPnP
 
timz
What's the intended route? 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/trade-corridor-from-afghanistan-to-turkey-inaugurated/1337767

Also Google "Five Nations Railway Corridor". 

Both of the above will be connected undoubtedly.   Iran is already building to connect with Iraq National Railways across it's border, which also connects with Turkey.....somewhere.

I understand the development motivation but the complete avoidance of Russian territory I was curious about.

In the present day enviornment I would surmise - NOBODY has any trust in Putin.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 1:36 PM

BaltACD
In the present day enviornment I would surmise - NOBODY has any trust in Putin.

OK so it has nothing to do with geographic feature avoidance or shorter route?    That is what I was curious about but I have no clue if there is an application that could possibly measure this on the internet.   Is there?

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 2:23 PM

Doubt there is any internet application.  When it comes to 'trust' it is a intrinsically human calculation and is based upon interactions between people, countires and the leaders of those countries.  If people actually do the things they have told us they are going to do, you can generally trust what they say.  When the don't they create themselves as not being trustworthy.  Trust is built or destroyed over time.

 

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Posted by NittanyLion on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 2:39 PM

Given that there already are China to Europe rail lines, it would stand to reason that geopolitical tension with Russia isn't the problem.  They're already moving freight across multiple routes through Russia.  

It may be that they're not interested in whatever infrastructure improvements are needed in Russia for their containerized traffic. It may be more straightforward, while also opening other markets, to take a fresh route via Afghanistan.

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Posted by timz on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 3:25 PM

"The first consignment, carrying cotton, raisins, sesame seeds and dry fruit, today [in 2018] embarked on the rail route through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Balkans."

So China plans to connect to this existing route? Which crosses the Caspian Sea? By ferry?

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Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 4:59 PM

timz
"The first consignment, carrying cotton, raisins, sesame seeds and dry fruit, today [in 2018] embarked on the rail route through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Balkans." So China plans to connect to this existing route? Which crosses the Caspian Sea? By ferry?

No my read was they were going to route via Northern Iran either into Turkey or into Iraq then into Turkey........then onto Europe.    I don't think the Ferry across the Sea would work for heavy traffic though it probably works with the existing traffic that routes by rail today.

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Posted by rdamon on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 5:21 PM

That would also be a way to get to a port on the Mediterranean to bypass Panama

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Posted by jeffhergert on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 5:22 PM

It could be for political reasons.  Not to avoid Russia necessarily, but to extend Chinese political and economic influence over other areas.

Jeff

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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, October 11, 2023 5:30 PM

Probably surprising no one: this is associated with the 'Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor which is itself a coordination of Turkey (the 'Silk Road Initiative') and China's Belt and Road Initiative.  Propaganda example:

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2017-06/01/content_29580844.htm

My assessment is that the Afghan route is intended to connect through to India, as topography permits. 

Note that there is already a Beijing-to-London rail route 'in being', using the Marmaray double-track tunnel under the Bosphorus (which these new lines would also likely use to reach Europe). 

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Posted by wjstix on Thursday, October 12, 2023 4:34 PM

China makes many products that are distributed all over the world. Russia doesn't. A rail line connecting China to Europe would get their products to the west faster and more directly.

A rail line across Russia would have virtually no on-line industries or distribution sites. It's only purpose would be taking containers from Europe to the Pacific Ocean, to be put on ships to the US or Canada, or taking containers with US-made products to Russia's Pacific ports to then travel 4000 miles to Europe. Easier just to send the containers between the US and Europe via the Atlantic Ocean.

Stix

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