Trains.com

What odds do you personally give the Tennessee Pass reactivation plan of actually happening?

7980 views
33 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
  • Member since
    August 2013
  • 88 posts
What odds do you personally give the Tennessee Pass reactivation plan of actually happening?
Posted by Shrike Arghast on Thursday, April 8, 2021 12:33 PM

Yes, I know it's currently tied up in the courts. But between the NIMBY opposition (which is sad, but - let's face it - kind of predictable), the rather light potential usefulness of the railroad even if it's reactivated (correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't traffic been falling OFF the Moffat Line for two decades now? I'm not sure what - if any - redundancies Colorado, Midland & Pacific hopes to profit off of with reactivation [other than a kind of nebulous idea of running passenger service to Vail, which is, in of itself, somewhat dubious considering that most of your passengers would presumably originate in Denver, and then have to take a circuitous routing down to Pueblo, before traveling NW over the pass]), Colorado Pacific's ardent (might we even say vindictive at this point? They're like a spurned lover for UP's castoffs) resistance to the sale, and the substantial rehabilitation costs, there definitely seem like a number of roadblocks here.

Believe me: I WANT to see railroading return to Tennessee Pass - to me and a lot of other people, it and Saluda represent America's two most magnificent lost railroads (special shoutout to the Milwaukee's Pacific Extension and Homestake Pass, though), and it would be lovely to see traffic return. I just worry that this particular dream is a bridge too far considering the obstacles between us and wheels rolling. 

What kind of odds do you give it of actually happening?

  • Member since
    April 2007
  • 4,557 posts
Posted by Convicted One on Thursday, April 8, 2021 12:57 PM

The past is a great place to visit, but living there often proves fatal.  I don't think reactivation of TP HAS to happen, so I doubt that it will happen.

The sentimentality of the "lost causes", Saluda, Tennessee Pass,  Milwaukee Transcon, the traditional diner cars on passenger trains,  Brakemen, Firemen, steam...etc etc... nice that we remember those things, but it does get tedious after a while.

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Thursday, April 8, 2021 1:05 PM

I will say just the one thing:  Odds of developing property in the Minturn yard area: 104%.

Anything actively connected with running trains: I don't think they really care.

  • Member since
    September 2013
  • 2,505 posts
Posted by caldreamer on Thursday, April 8, 2021 1:44 PM

Call me a skeptic, but lets put it this way.  I have a much better chance of getting the check from Publishers Clearing House without doing anything than the Raton Pass EVER being reactivate.

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, April 8, 2021 2:23 PM

caldreamer
Call me a skeptic, but lets put it this way.  I have a much better chance of getting the check from Publishers Clearing House without doing anything than the Raton Pass EVER being reactivate.

Don't believe Raton Pass has been deactivated.  It only hosts Amtrak but it is still active.  Tennessee Pass is another pass.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    July 2014
  • 565 posts
Posted by Fred M Cain on Monday, April 12, 2021 11:49 AM

I may be overly optimistic but I think there's a good chance.  50%? 75%? 90%?  I have no clue.  But the very fact that no effort has been made to pull the rails and dismantle the line might tell us something.

And now that someone is actively pursuing this, they must have their reasons.  One possibility:  One of us could try and contact them and ask them why.  I could speculate as to why but I really don't know so I'm gonna hold off.

Concerning the rebuilding of the Milwaukee's line to the Pacific Northwest, there is little or no hope there 'cause the rails are gone as well as some of the viaducts.  But with Tennesse Pass and the West Phoenix line, those are real possibilities there.

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Monday, April 12, 2021 11:59 AM

Fred M Cain
And now that someone is actively pursuing this, they must have their reasons.  One possibility:  One of us could try and contact them and ask them why.  I could speculate as to why but I really don't know so I'm gonna hold off.

Do you really think you're going to call or e-mail them cold and expect them to discuss secret-agenda plans to develop Minturn yard property with minimal NIMBYism?

Better yet, explain to me how you intend to get them to do that, and then verify you'll verify you're not being lied to or deflected from the issues of importance to them...

On the other hand, nothing would be really lost if you tried... and who knows? perhaps they would tell you in detail what they intend.  I might have been around New York real-estate people in general too long.

  • Member since
    April 2007
  • 4,557 posts
Posted by Convicted One on Monday, April 12, 2021 12:32 PM

Fred M Cain
But the very fact that no effort has been made to pull the rails and dismantle the line might tell us something.

Mudchicken could probably address this better than anybody, but I always thought this line was preserved as a possible detour route, in case the current mainline is disrupted through landslides or washouts.

Several years ago I was east bound on I-70 where a  bridge in fact washed out. And they re-routed traffic via US 24...right through the area we now discuss.  It's a convenient detour. 

  • Member since
    July 2014
  • 565 posts
Posted by Fred M Cain on Monday, April 12, 2021 12:35 PM

Overmod,

Of course you're right.  They wouldn't tell me.  I never got a straight answer out of the U.P. concerning the West Phoenix line either. 

My only point is they are pursuing this for a reason and that makes it a lot more likely to happen than if no one was pursuing it.  Then that fact taken with the reality that no one has as of yet made much of an effort to dismantle the line, then I think something is likely to happen.

There isn't much of a point arguing about the unknown.  We'll just have to wait and see and watch future developments.  It could very easily all come to nothing but still, I think there's a good chance.

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Monday, April 12, 2021 12:43 PM

I confess my take is existential as long as the popcorn holds out.  It's not my money, and I'd like to see profitable service (and the improvements that go with it) made.  On the other hand I don't like to see crooks and financiers screw things up just so they can 'succeed' enhancing their wealth at the line's distress.

(And I hold special disdain for the actual and would-be Riffins of this world, no matter how much they have or how much OPM they have to squander...)

  • Member since
    December 2007
  • 1,307 posts
Posted by Falcon48 on Thursday, April 15, 2021 8:12 PM

With respect to the question of "what odds" I give to a Tennessee Pass reactivation, ask me that question after we find out whether UP is able to negotiate an acceptable extension of its lease of the Moffat Tunnel (which expires in 2025) or a purchase of the facility. 

  • Member since
    September 2011
  • 6,449 posts
Posted by MidlandMike on Thursday, April 15, 2021 9:57 PM

Falcon48

With respect to the question of "what odds" I give to a Tennessee Pass reactivation, ask me that question after we find out whether UP is able to negotiate an acceptable extension of its lease of the Moffat Tunnel (which expires in 2025) or a purchase of the facility. 

 

I think you just answered the question as to why UP has held on to the TP line for so long.  Now the question becomes whether UP will want to hold on to either line come 2025, with the evaporation of traffic on the lines in recent years.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, April 16, 2021 9:52 AM

Shrike Arghast
(special shoutout to the Milwaukee's Pacific Extension and Homestake Pass, though)

Milwaukee and it's various bankruptcy trustees made too many shortsighted decisions for the Pacific Extension ever to make it (for example: not wiping more of the Pacific Extension debt from the balance sheet in the first or second bankruptcy).   

Lets say that all the dumb decisions were made smart......there is still not enough traffic to support a fifth transcontinental railway between the population of the United States and Canada combined.    If Milwaukee did survive it would have made the current four weaker financially.

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Denver / La Junta
  • 10,820 posts
Posted by mudchicken on Monday, April 19, 2021 7:40 PM

Falcon48

With respect to the question of "what odds" I give to a Tennessee Pass reactivation, ask me that question after we find out whether UP is able to negotiate an acceptable extension of its lease of the Moffat Tunnel (which expires in 2025) or a purchase of the facility. 

Why? - they already gave up on Pueblo-Denver, Pueblo- NA Junction and that traffic base....Tennessee Pass will survive, but not anything like it was. (At one point it WAS abandondoned, then UP quickly reversed course on that)

Mudchicken Nothing is worth taking the risk of losing a life over. Come home tonight in the same condition that you left home this morning in. Safety begins with ME.... cinscocom-west
  • Member since
    December 2007
  • 1,307 posts
Posted by Falcon48 on Wednesday, April 21, 2021 10:10 PM

In response to Mudchicken, the Tennessee Pass line was never abandoned.  UP applied for abandonment of the line in the UPSP merger.  In its 1996 decision approving the merger, STB denied abandonment but approved "discontinuance" of service, which permitted the line to be shut down.  STB's reason for this was to see if overhead traffic could be sucessfully rerouted from the line before permitting full abandonment. Then came UP's 1997 service crisis.  As a result of this, UP removed the line from "Category 1" of its system diagram map in early 1998, advising the Board it was no longer a candidate for abandonment.  But service over the line remained "discontinued" as permitted by STB's earlier decision.  Except for the 1998 sale of the Canon City-Parkdale segment to RGX (a partership of Rock & Rail and the Canon City & Royal Gorge tourist road),  that's the way it's been ever since.  

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Denver / La Junta
  • 10,820 posts
Posted by mudchicken on Thursday, April 22, 2021 3:33 AM

Agreed. (But UP gave up on TP, something that infuriated the D&RGW managers (including those who made the move to Omaha)...and then had to walk it back)

Should have better stated where I was coming from.

Mudchicken Nothing is worth taking the risk of losing a life over. Come home tonight in the same condition that you left home this morning in. Safety begins with ME.... cinscocom-west
  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Thursday, April 22, 2021 12:45 PM

Falcon48

With respect to the question of "what odds" I give to a Tennessee Pass reactivation, ask me that question after we find out whether UP is able to negotiate an acceptable extension of its lease of the Moffat Tunnel (which expires in 2025) or a purchase of the facility. 

 

Can you expand on the ways this could go?

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    March 2016
  • From: Burbank IL (near Clearing)
  • 13,540 posts
Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Thursday, April 22, 2021 1:52 PM

I would propose that the issue of the lease of the Mofffat Tunnel is a red herring.  Nobody besides UP is in a position to make a serious bid on renewing the lease and the government entity which owns the tunnel doesn't want to be stuck with an otherwise worthless asset.  

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Thursday, April 22, 2021 1:56 PM

CSSHEGEWISCH

I would propose that the issue of the lease of the Mofffat Tunnel is a red herring.  Nobody besides UP is in a position to make a serious bid on renewing the lease and the government entity which owns the tunnel doesn't want to be stuck with an otherwise worthless asset.  

 

I thought that too. But then I read about the Moffat tunnel used for a water pipeline and wondered if that could spill over (Clown) into useage of the railroad tunnel.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Thursday, April 22, 2021 2:07 PM

CSSHEGEWISCH
I would propose that the issue of the lease of the Mofffat Tunnel is a red herring.  Nobody besides UP is in a position to make a serious bid on renewing the lease and the government entity which owns the tunnel doesn't want to be stuck with an otherwise worthless asset.  

I've been thinking about it from a more or less opposite, negitiator's perspective.

Whoever 'owns' the tunnel is likely going to be like Glenn Campbell with his 2-10-4, convinced that the route is worth 'billyunz and billyunz' of dollars and they as owners can hold out for 'their' price, whereas UP as we know has a take-it-or-leave-it' attitude toward actually needing the tunnel to make a profit... but doesn't want a competitor to use the route to cause trouble, even in theory.  The most interesting manifestation of this would come if actually selling the tunnel and its route comes on the table...

  • Member since
    February 2008
  • 602 posts
Posted by Bruce Kelly on Thursday, April 22, 2021 2:18 PM

Do a comparison of tunnel clearances on the Moffat Route vs. Tennessee Pass.

  • Member since
    December 2007
  • 1,307 posts
Posted by Falcon48 on Thursday, April 22, 2021 2:40 PM

Actually, selling Moffat tunnel did come on the table about 15 years or so ago. The state agency contolling the tunnel (I forget what agency it was at the time, but it probably was the Moffat Tunnel Commission) put both the water and the rail tunnel out for bid (there are two separate but parallel Moffat tunnels - the water tunnel was built first and then used to build the rail tunnel).  Denver or one of the govenment entities associated with it purchased the water tunnel.  UP bid on the rail tunnel, but the agency controlling it thought the bid was inadequate. 

I don't recall that anyone else submitted a serious bid on the rail tunnel, but it was a long time ago, so I may be overlooking something now.  In any event, the rail tunnel wasn't sold.  I think that an issue for anyone but UP bidding for the tunnel at the time was that any purchase would have been subject to the UP lease, and the lease income may not have been very attractive.  That's because, when the tunnel was built, the lease payments were structured so that they were high early in the lease (to return the investment the state had made), but low later in the lease.  By the time the sale effort was undertaken, the lease payments were "low".   

This is all from my memory, so I could have misstated something (these days, I can't remember where I left my socks the night before).  But all of the details should be public somewhere, since a governmental entity was involved.  Also, I recall that the effort was widely reported in the press at the time.  One thing I definitely remember from the press was a report of an interview with a governmental official involved in the sale.  He was asked why the state was trying to sell the tunnel.  His answer was that they were trying to tap the buyers that missed out on the Brooklyn Bridge.    

  • Member since
    December 2007
  • 1,307 posts
Posted by Falcon48 on Thursday, April 22, 2021 8:13 PM

In response to Mudchicken's note of 4/22, "infuriating the DRGW managers (including those who made the move to Omaha)" was not an issue.  I was heavily involved in this abandonment.  The senior SP/DRGW managers were all on board with a TP shutdown.  They would have shut the line down themselves if the merger hadn't gone through, since their "central corridor" strategy had been a failure (one of their senior officials submitted a statement to this effect in the merger proceeding).  The people who made the decision to keep the TP line in reserve were long time UP officials.

  • Member since
    December 2007
  • 1,307 posts
Posted by Falcon48 on Thursday, April 22, 2021 9:36 PM

Bruce Kelly

Do a comparison of tunnel clearances on the Moffat Route vs. Tennessee Pass.

 

Tennessee Pass can handle double stacks (and it did prior to the shutdown).  Double stack trains on the Moffat route would magicallly transform themselves into single stack trains due to tunnel clearances..
  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Thursday, April 22, 2021 9:52 PM

If someone buys the Moffat tunnel, don't they have to negotiate to run trains over UP's tracks? 

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    December 2007
  • 1,307 posts
Posted by Falcon48 on Thursday, April 22, 2021 10:12 PM

Murphy Siding

If someone buys the Moffat tunnel, don't they have to negotiate to run trains over UP's tracks? 

 

Short answer: yes.   Longer answer:  Not only that, but a purchaser would have to get STB authority to exclude UP or its tenant (BNSF) from operating through the tunnel (it would be considered a "discontinuance of service" which could only be done if authorized by STB).  The way this would probably play out (if a voluntary agreement wasn't made) is that STB would end up setting the terms for continued use of the tunnel by UP and BNSF.

  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Thursday, April 22, 2021 11:01 PM

Falcon48

 

 
Murphy Siding

If someone buys the Moffat tunnel, don't they have to negotiate to run trains over UP's tracks? 

 

 

 

Short answer: yes.   Longer answer:  Not only that, but a purchaser would have to get STB authority to exclude UP or its tenant (BNSF) from operating through the tunnel (it would be considered a "discontinuance of service" which could only be done if authorized by STB).  The way this would probably play out (if a voluntary agreement wasn't made) is that STB would end up setting the terms for continued use of the tunnel by UP and BNSF.

 

 

I can't imagine why anyone other than UP would want control of the tunnel.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    January 2015
  • 2,678 posts
Posted by kgbw49 on Friday, April 23, 2021 12:39 AM

Actually, I think CP will put in an offer and then a month later CN will come in with a bigger offer.

(Ducks the first thrown tomato and then runs for cover.)

  • Member since
    February 2008
  • 602 posts
Posted by Bruce Kelly on Friday, April 23, 2021 8:56 AM

"Tennessee Pass can handle double stacks (and it did prior to the shutdown).  Double stack trains on the Moffat route would magicallly transform themselves into single stack trains due to tunnel clearances.."

Now, take a look at the maps associated with the CP-KCS merger proposal, particularly the one representing intermodal, and note the IM corridor they foresee between the Pacific Northwest and multiple locations in the Texas-Gulf-Mexico region.

 

  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Friday, April 23, 2021 9:55 AM

Bruce Kelly

"Tennessee Pass can handle double stacks (and it did prior to the shutdown).  Double stack trains on the Moffat route would magicallly transform themselves into single stack trains due to tunnel clearances.."

Now, take a look at the maps associated with the CP-KCS merger proposal, particularly the one representing intermodal, and note the IM corridor they foresee between the Pacific Northwest and multiple locations in the Texas-Gulf-Mexico region.

 

 

Can you provide a link to that map please?

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy