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Has the Final Round of Mergers Begun?

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Has the Final Round of Mergers Begun?
Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Sunday, March 21, 2021 12:19 PM
 

The news of CP+KCS is dominating headlines at the moment as it should. This willl create a true North American railway. So where do we go from here? BNSF, CN, CSX, NS, and UP? I'm sure press releases relating to this combination will appear in the news shortly. Though who out of the Big 4 US systems is in shape to make a move East of the Mississippi? BNSF and CSX seem to be doing better than their perspective rivals in their territory. UP and NS are still trying to get their systems through the PSR wringer.

A BNSF+CSX combination might not be a bad idea and may be better than BNSF+NS in reality. BNSF already has rights to North Baltimore, OH ICTF. Both are partners in Schneider National IM Service. CSX has direct access to BNSF's Corwith IM Ramp in Chicago. They provide IM service to the Southeast US-California via Memphis, TN.

UP+NS. I believe these two interchange quite more carload and IM traffic between each other than their rivals BNSF and CSX. Correct me if I'm wrong. NS and UP offer IM service between the Southeast and California via the more direct Meridian Speedway LLC. UP was recently granted trackage rights on the old Wabash between KC, and Springfield, IL. 

CN you look to be the odd man out going forward.. For now....

This is just a synopsis of current events. So what are your guys thoughts?

 
 
 
 
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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, March 21, 2021 12:28 PM

SD60MAC9500
The news of CP+KCS is dominating headlines at the moment as it should. This willl create a true North American railway. So where do we go from here? BNSF, CN, CSX, NS, and UP? I'm sure press releases relating to this combination will appear in the news shortly. Though who out of the Big 4 US systems is in shape to make a move East of the Mississippi? BNSF and CSX seem to be doing better than their perspective rivals in their territory. UP and NS are still trying to get their systems through the PSR wringer.

A BNSF+CSX combination might not be a bad idea and may be better than BNSF+NS in reality. BNSF already has rights to North Baltimore, OH ICTF. Both are partners in Schneider National IM Service. CSX has direct access to BNSF's Corwith IM Ramp in Chicago. They partner on Atlanta-California IM service via Memphis, TN.

UP+NS. I believe these two interchange quite more carload and IM traffic between each other than their rivals BNSF and CSX. Correct me if I'm wrong. NS and UP offer Atlanta IM service via the more direct Meridian Speedway LLC. UP was recently granted trackage rights on the old Wabash between KC, and Springfield, IL. 

CN you look to be the odd man out going forward.. For now....

This is just a synopsis of current events. So what are your guys thoughts?

IF and that is a big IFthe STB approves the CP-KCS merger.  I don't know that the political climate will permit the STB to approve a merger between the existing East and West Class I's - however, if one is approved the other is mandated.

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Posted by NKP guy on Sunday, March 21, 2021 1:03 PM

    Would two railroads serve the public better than four?  Will service for customers improve and become less expensive?  If not, how would the public interest, not just the corporate interest, be served?

   If a merger is not in the public interest, why would the Federal gov't enable it?

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Posted by Juniata Man on Sunday, March 21, 2021 1:12 PM

My only response to the question posed in the thread topic is "God, I hope not!"

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Posted by caldreamer on Sunday, March 21, 2021 2:04 PM

One thing that would be rdeuced for shippers would be the interchange cost between railroads.  A seemless weast west route would be good IF and ONLY if the STB keeps a tight rein on the railroads increasing prices.  I can see a small increase to keep up with costs, but the combined railroads will have overall reduced administrative costs which they should be made to pass on to the shippers. Personally I would like to see a BNSF/CSX merger.  I think that the BNSF management really works well and since they are free from the Wall street wolves, the only thing that they have to worry about is running a railroad.

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Posted by Juniata Man on Sunday, March 21, 2021 2:16 PM

If psr has taught us one thing about railroads; it is that "sharing" cost savings with their customers is anathema. Cost savings go to the shareholders - not the customers.

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Posted by n012944 on Sunday, March 21, 2021 2:56 PM

NKP guy

    Would two railroads serve the public better than four?  Will service for customers improve and become less expensive?  If not, how would the public interest, not just the corporate interest, be served?

If an end to end merger was approved, the good people of Chicago would see benefit.  

 

Also stockholders are members of the general public.......

 

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Posted by Backshop on Sunday, March 21, 2021 3:40 PM

I don't think that a CP/KCS merger means the start of another round.  It's just the two smallest combining to bring them up to the size of the other 5.

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, March 21, 2021 4:40 PM

I view it as a 'in kind' duplication of CN - in the US they are N-S transcon.  In Canada they are E-W transcon.

That leaves North America with 6 mega carriers - BNSF - CN - CP - CSX - NS - UP 

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Posted by tom-servo on Sunday, March 21, 2021 5:56 PM
i would imagine with less railroads to compete for the lower price with prices would maybe go up, but that's kind of a stretch seeing how there still competing with a few other companies
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Posted by tom-servo on Sunday, March 21, 2021 7:21 PM
Well a merger like that seems unlikely due to the size of both and they’re both doing well a big merger now seems other then the cp one there aren’t many small rail roads to gobble up and these big guys aren’t in bad position as to being desperate
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Posted by jeffhergert on Sunday, March 21, 2021 10:55 PM

About 10 years or so back, when Jim Young was in charge, our terminal's lead safety person gave a presentation to a group that included him.  Afterwards, he talked with Young.  One of the things discussed was possible future mergers.

Mr. Young said he couldn't say much, other than conditions at the time weren't right.  If or when the conditions become right, UP would go after CSX.  That's something I've heard since 1990 or so. 

Whether that view still holds, I couldn't say.  Although I still think it to be true.  However, I'm not sure the time may ever come when conditions are right.  At least not for the next few years.

Jeff   

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, March 21, 2021 11:15 PM

jeffhergert
About 10 years or so back, when Jim Young was in charge, our terminal's lead safety person gave a presentation to a group that included him.  Afterwards, he talked with Young.  One of the things discussed was possible future mergers.

Mr. Young said he couldn't say much, other than conditions at the time weren't right.  If or when the conditions become right, UP would go after CSX.  That's something I've heard since 1990 or so. 

Whether that view still holds, I couldn't say.  Although I still think it to be true.  However, I'm not sure the time may ever come when conditions are right.  At least not for the next few years.

Jeff   

UP - CSX was what I was hearing on CSX - if and when.  There were a number of former UP officials working for CSX at the time.

Having been retired for 4 years and 'out of the loop', especially since my craft was moved back to Jacksonville - I have no idea how the winds are currently blowing.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Sunday, March 21, 2021 11:34 PM

BaltACD

 

 
jeffhergert
About 10 years or so back, when Jim Young was in charge, our terminal's lead safety person gave a presentation to a group that included him.  Afterwards, he talked with Young.  One of the things discussed was possible future mergers.

Mr. Young said he couldn't say much, other than conditions at the time weren't right.  If or when the conditions become right, UP would go after CSX.  That's something I've heard since 1990 or so. 

Whether that view still holds, I couldn't say.  Although I still think it to be true.  However, I'm not sure the time may ever come when conditions are right.  At least not for the next few years.

Jeff   

 

UP - CSX was what I was hearing on CSX - if and when.  There were a number of former UP officials working for CSX at the time.

Having been retired for 4 years and 'out of the loop', especially since my craft was moved back to Jacksonville - I have no idea how the winds are currently blowing.

 

That's the rationale I heard, too.  That after the UP took over the MP, a buyout was offered.  It was expected that former MP people would take it.  More UP people took it and many wound up on CSX.

I would imagine that many of those would be retired now (on both roads) so I couldn't say if the winds still blow the same, either. 

Jeff

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Monday, March 22, 2021 10:28 PM
 

Jeff, and Balt. Last year Railway Age published a interview with Cindy Sanborn on her return back East to help NS with PSR integration. Here's a quote from her about the parity with UP, and CSX.

"First, the people were the same at UP as they were at CSX. If I closed my eyes and just focused on the issues under discussion, I could have been at either railroad."

 
 
 
 
 
 
Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by kgbw49 on Monday, March 22, 2021 11:25 PM

BaltACD

BaltACD is right - any proposed US East-West transcontinental merger proposal would trigger the other in response.

In addition, with 2/3 of the US population east of the Mississippi, you can bet that both CN and CP would demand access to major population and business centers in the eastern US as part of any final merger resolution.

 

 
SD60MAC9500
The news of CP+KCS is dominating headlines at the moment as it should. This willl create a true North American railway. So where do we go from here? BNSF, CN, CSX, NS, and UP? I'm sure press releases relating to this combination will appear in the news shortly. Though who out of the Big 4 US systems is in shape to make a move East of the Mississippi? BNSF and CSX seem to be doing better than their perspective rivals in their territory. UP and NS are still trying to get their systems through the PSR wringer.

A BNSF+CSX combination might not be a bad idea and may be better than BNSF+NS in reality. BNSF already has rights to North Baltimore, OH ICTF. Both are partners in Schneider National IM Service. CSX has direct access to BNSF's Corwith IM Ramp in Chicago. They partner on Atlanta-California IM service via Memphis, TN.

UP+NS. I believe these two interchange quite more carload and IM traffic between each other than their rivals BNSF and CSX. Correct me if I'm wrong. NS and UP offer Atlanta IM service via the more direct Meridian Speedway LLC. UP was recently granted trackage rights on the old Wabash between KC, and Springfield, IL. 

CN you look to be the odd man out going forward.. For now....

This is just a synopsis of current events. So what are your guys thoughts?

 

IF and that is a big IFthe STB approves the CP-KCS merger.  I don't know that the political climate will permit the STB to approve a merger between the existing East and West Class I's - however, if one is approved the other is mandated.

 

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Posted by samfp1943 on Tuesday, March 23, 2021 8:46 AM

REmember back in 1993(?) when the UPRR sent #3985  East to pull the 50th Anniversary Clinchfield Christmas Train { lightly disquised as CRR 176 (?) } The talk at almost every railfan 'discussion'  centered around the "...Why'd they do that..". 

CSX- UPRR ???  ":What was gonna happen?"  "MERGER"???  It seemed to be the burning question in many railfan's minds at the time...

The trip was a raging success...Even when they tore the corner off #176: nee:3985... when a CSX crew, apparently spotted a car too close to a switch...They just fixed it, and the trip continued successfully... Cooperation between a couple of 'team players'.... The 'Merger' never happened, and it got both railroads more 'good-neighborly' publcity than either line together, could have bought.....

So here we are, almost thirty years (give or take (?) later, and the same subject has become, a possibility, again !  Smile, Wink & Grin Whistling

  

 

 


 

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Posted by Psychot on Wednesday, March 24, 2021 8:28 PM

n012944

 

 
NKP guy

    Would two railroads serve the public better than four?  Will service for customers improve and become less expensive?  If not, how would the public interest, not just the corporate interest, be served?

 

 

If an end to end merger was approved, the good people of Chicago would see benefit.  

 

Also stockholders are members of the general public.......

 

 

Slightly over half of Americans participate in the stock market, so it's disingenuous to imply that the public interest and corporate interests are the same.

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Posted by kgbw49 on Wednesday, March 24, 2021 10:33 PM

Ironically, pretty much every state, county, city, public school district  and other governmental employee (not sure about Federal employees) is indirectly invested in the stock market, too. They all have some form of pension plan, usually a state pension plan, that they are a member of. Typically their employer and employee contributions to their pension make up a small minority of benefits paid. The majority of benefits paid are generated by taking those contributions and investing them primarily in stocks and other investment vehicles. I am on the board of a public pension fund and in our fund, 27% of benefits are generated by contributions and the other 73% is generated by investment returns. That is one relatively little-known factoid.

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Posted by Psychot on Thursday, March 25, 2021 10:30 AM

The "slightly over half" includes people with 401K's and retirement funds that participate in the stock market. Federal employees these days are also involved in the stock market through the Thrift Savings Plan. But it's still around 55% total participation.

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Posted by n012944 on Thursday, March 25, 2021 2:17 PM

Psychot

 

 
n012944

 

 
NKP guy

    Would two railroads serve the public better than four?  Will service for customers improve and become less expensive?  If not, how would the public interest, not just the corporate interest, be served?

 

 

If an end to end merger was approved, the good people of Chicago would see benefit.  

 

Also stockholders are members of the general public.......

 

 

 

 

Slightly over half of Americans participate in the stock market, so it's disingenuous to imply that the public interest and corporate interests are the same.

 

 

I never said they were the same.  

An "expensive model collector"

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, March 25, 2021 4:49 PM

NKP guy

    Would two railroads serve the public better than four?  Will service for customers improve and become less expensive?  If not, how would the public interest, not just the corporate interest, be served?

   If a merger is not in the public interest, why would the Federal gov't enable it?

 

Those who think that most stocks are owned by the broad swath of the American public might want to examine this article. 

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/who-owns-us-stock-foreigners-and-rich-americans

 

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Posted by SALfan on Saturday, March 27, 2021 8:29 PM

kgbw49

Ironically, pretty much every state, county, city, public school district  and other governmental employee (not sure about Federal employees) is indirectly invested in the stock market, too. They all have some form of pension plan, usually a state pension plan, that they are a member of. Typically their employer and employee contributions to their pension make up a small minority of benefits paid. The majority of benefits paid are generated by taking those contributions and investing them primarily in stocks and other investment vehicles. I am on the board of a public pension fund and in our fund, 27% of benefits are generated by contributions and the other 73% is generated by investment returns. That is one relatively little-known factoid.

 

What you say is true for any Federal employee hired after 1986.  Their retirement income consists of Social Security, a very small Federal supplement, and income from their Thrift Savings Plan (401k) account. Those of us already on board were given the opportunity to convert to the new retirement system, and many did (have no idea what proportion).  I stayed with the old defined-benefit retirement system. 

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Posted by tree68 on Saturday, March 27, 2021 9:04 PM

SALfan
hose of us already on board were given the opportunity to convert to the new retirement system, and many did (have no idea what proportion).  I stayed with the old defined-benefit retirement system. 

As did I, although I ended up with the "CSRS Offset" option, meaning that once I reached 62 (I was able to retire at 59), my federal annuity was reduced by the amount of SS I would receive.  I ended up with the same gross.

I did contribute to TSP - I'm getting ready to cash in on that.  It won't be a huge amount per month - I'll probably just transfer it over to my savings for now.

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Monday, March 29, 2021 10:07 AM

I also stuck with CSRS rather than convert (I was hired in 1979).  I haven't retired yet but the estimated pension looks pretty good. 

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
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Posted by tree68 on Monday, March 29, 2021 11:06 AM

CSSHEGEWISCH

I also stuck with CSRS rather than convert (I was hired in 1979).  I haven't retired yet but the estimated pension looks pretty good. 

I ended up with the offset because I left and came back when that was the deal.  Might have been because I was in CSRS when I left.

Either way, I'm comfortable.  Too bad I couldn't afford to buy my USAF time when it was affordable.

 

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Posted by SALfan on Monday, March 29, 2021 10:42 PM

CSSHEGEWISCH

I also stuck with CSRS rather than convert (I was hired in 1979).  I haven't retired yet but the estimated pension looks pretty good. 

 

Can I offer a bit of advice?  When I retired (2011), and I assume to this day, from the time one retires until Office of Personnel Management looks over your agency's estimate of your final annuity, blesses it and mutters incantations over it, you only receive 80% of your projected annuity.  Be prepared for that period to last a considerable length of time - in my case it took OPM TEN MONTHS to figure out my final annuity amount would be virtually identical to what my agency estimated it would be.  I had to retire at a particular time, which wasn't the best time financially.  That was a very rough 10 months.  Be sure you have adequate funds not part of your annuity to tide you over while only receiving the 80% every month. 

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Tuesday, March 30, 2021 10:20 AM

Most of the estimates are probably low since they don't factor the almost 4000 hours of unused sick leave that I have.

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
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Posted by JPS1 on Tuesday, March 30, 2021 10:50 AM
Excluding BNSF, which is wholly owned by Berkshire Hathaway, an average of 75.3 percent of the common shares of the Class 1 railroads are owned by institutional investors.  The median is 74.9 percent. 

The institution investors include pension funds, university endowment funds, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, retail mutual funds, etc.  Less than two percent of the shares are owned by the officers and employees of the railroads.  The remaining shares are held by individual investors.  

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, March 30, 2021 11:08 AM

CSSHEGEWISCH

Most of the estimates are probably low since they don't factor the almost 4000 hours of unused sick leave that I have.

That's just shy of two years.  I had a year of S/L on the books when I retired - which added a year to what I was credited for my retirement.

LarryWhistling
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