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Trump to OK railroad to Alaska Locked

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Posted by Steven Otte on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 2:52 PM

Starting a new thread to explore this topic sounds like a splendid idea.

--
Steven Otte, Model Railroader senior associate editor
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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 12:06 PM

Fred M Cain
Will it ever happen?

Not as long as government money can be spent on 'opportunities' with more appeal to decision makers.

Very few people care about a railroad connecting up across Canada on heroic earthworks, just to get to some of the areas in Alaska that might benefit from the... well, it certainly wouldn't be guaranteed, or cost-effective, or particularly high-traffic freight.  It's only a practical bridge competing with existing routes if it goes to 'something' across the Bering Strait to a country we're economically boycotting, that's likely dependent on one of its neighbors we're having 'trouble' with building the (equally dramatic) counterpart up from the Trans-Siberian to their side.

This as nearshoring, shifts in world production, and increased investment in East Coast ports make even the rationale for a Bering Strait trunk line begin to look pale.  We currently think a practical 'speedy' service is 12 days from Halifax to Monterrey.  That begins to look like a (cheaper) ship-borne schedule to someplace like Tehuantepec where it gets on a proper container-bridge line.  (Which won't be built under Belt and Road for internal Mexican political reasons - quel dommage as it's been recognized as valuable since the 1850s -- THAT is something to prioritize long before you manage A2A).

I suspect most 'First Nations' would allow A2A -- if they were asked politely, and as I said if they had real financial returns without assuming much of the risk.  You will recall that while Trump generated the permit to reach the Canadian border, I don't recall any action taken by Canada to permit anything north of there.  That's the current place to lobby if you want anything like this to move forward in any practical sense... and I don't see it becoming the sort of national priority that CP was.

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Posted by York1 on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 11:50 AM

Fred M Cain
Alaskans, many Canadians and native North Americans would probably support such a plan.

That's an interesting thought.  Do you really believe Native North Americans would agree to new railroad tracks being laid across their land?

York1 John       

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Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 11:28 AM

Fred M Cain
I might just do that *IF* there’s enough interest in the subject.

C'mon its the TRAINS forum, all you have to do is post a fact that you know is absolutely true and like 10 people will disagree with you and try to drag you into an alternate reality.     So start a new thread please without the name Trump in it so it has longevity.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 11:20 AM
A few thoughts here.  First of all, it was suggested that a new thread be started that deals specifically and solely with the concept of connecting Alaska to the rest of the North American rail system.  I might just do that *IF* there’s enough interest in the subject.
 
Based on everything I’ve been able to find, there is genuine interest in having such a line built.  Alaskans, many Canadians and native North Americans would probably support such a plan.
 
The problem is the attitude of our governments, both American and Canadian.  Our governments seem to have no issues finding the funds to build new highways with or to expand existing highways but railways?  WHOA ~ ! Hold on a minute ~ !
 
They’re kinda like, “So, you want to build a rail link to Alaska?  That’s a great idea ~ !  Go ahead and do it, but just don’t expect any help from us”.
 
I suppose if they wanted to upgrade the Alcan Highway to “Interstate-like” standards, they’d be glad to help with that, but……
 
As for Donald Trump, he authorized the A2A Railway on American soil but there was no funding offered which was typical.
 
If the private sector were to build it in its entirety, the debt racked up from construction, permitting and litigation would be astronomical.  Then, the only way to pay that debt off would be through freight rates.  That would make potential shippers balk and use rubber, water and air.
 
The solution, as I see it, is to first reach a consensus on this.  Then, the states and provinces involved would build the line with some federal assistance.  The State, province and Yukon Territory would then own the line and charge user rates that would be attractive enough to give shippers an incentive to use the line. Or, they could lease the line to the CNR or some other entity.   This might actually have some precedent.  Isn’t there a line in the South that was owned by the state but leased to NS?
 
A summer-only land cruise passenger train could also be a possibility as some have suggested.
 
Will it ever happen?  Maybe but probably not in my lifetime.
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Posted by blue streak 1 on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 12:19 AM

charlie hebdo

"A solution looking for a nonexistent problem"

 

 
Two years ago agreed with you.  Now not so much.  With  Russia saber rattling.  China is even more of a worry.   What if sea lanes to Alaska get unsafe by any way?  Might be important to have a land bridge to Alaska to carry heavy loads.  Alcan highway might have  problems in bad weather.
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Posted by 54light15 on Tuesday, May 2, 2023 4:39 PM

Speaking of Leona Helmsley, I stayed in a Helmsley hotel on 42nd street years ago. On the minibar were boxes of crackers and other snacks. A sign said that if you pick up a box and don't replace it in 15 seconds you will be charged. How much was that box of Carr's crackers? 20 bucks. 

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Posted by caldreamer on Tuesday, May 2, 2023 1:51 PM

You must be paraphrasing Leona Helmsley who said that just before she went to jail.

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Posted by Overmod on Tuesday, May 2, 2023 11:57 AM

charlie hebdo
"A solution looking for a nonexistent problem"

It's only a 'solution' if it actually solves something effectively.  We can discuss the financial return after we actually determine how to build and run the thing practically.

I'm surprised I can still read about half the comments in this thread.  It's only incidentally about the 'politics' of issuing a permit for the United States portions of the proposed line.

Perhaps we need a new thread exclusively about the prospective financing, construction, and operation of A2A or an alternative.  Or resurrect a different necro thread that contains that discussion.  Let this one die a deserved death.

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Posted by Overmod on Tuesday, May 2, 2023 11:55 AM

.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Tuesday, May 2, 2023 10:45 AM

Well, sorry to say, the proposed A2A (Alaska to Alberta) rail link now appears as though it's officially dead.  But the idea still lives on and refuses to die.

Here is a more recent proposal from a little more that a year ago:

Open mining opportunities with a railroad (adn.com)

This is clearly nothing more than an opinion piece but the guy does bring up some interesting points.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, December 4, 2020 3:55 PM

"A solution looking for a nonexistent problem"

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, December 4, 2020 11:44 AM

Fred M Cain
As I have mentioned on at least two other threads, it's the Alaska to Alberta (A2A) Railway.  They have a nice website and I contacted them by e-mail.

Fred, you do know there's another one, backed by First Nations participation -- G7G.  (I think their URL was posted in one of the recent threads.)

I don't think that the Trumpster was providing any monetary assistance.  He just authorized it.

This perhaps shows the pernicious effects of usual-suspects politics as clearly as anything: the only thing about 'Trump' that mattered was his signing something that did not oppose or stop it.  After that who cared if it had been Obama or Bush or Harris that did so?

I believe, if I'm not mistaken that the ARR has already graded some of the right of way east of North Pole

The problem being that there is no guarantee the actual railroad would follow that route.  It's like people looking at starting up construction on the Dease Lake line again, all innocent of any idea that better routes won't go anywhere near there or have very different grading or alignment with modern equipment possibilities...

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Friday, December 4, 2020 11:23 AM

Flintlock76

 

 
rrnut282
I was under the impression that the Gateway Project was going forward, just with a larger chunk of funding from the local states.  

 

It is.  

A railroad to Alaska's been kicked around ever since WW2.  Why it's going to be built (maybe) now I don't know.

 

 

 As I have mentioned on at least two other threads, it's the Alaska to Alberta (A2A) Railway.  They have a nice website and I contacted them by e-mail.

They are serious.  Will they pull it off?  Who knows?  Several people have voiced their rather negative opinions about this but I'm not sure anyone knows for sure.

What will they carry?  It's on their website.  Would it be successful?  I have no idea.

But, I don't think that the Trumpster was providing any monetary assistance.  He just authorized it. That means that it only has a clear block from the ARR end of track near "North Pole" to the Alaska/Yukon Territory line.  I don't know for sure if the Canadian government has done likewise or not.

I believe, if I'm not mistaken that the ARR has already graded some of the right of way east of North Pole

Regards,

FMC

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, October 12, 2020 5:23 PM

Overmod
Likely as much for support as formal defense; the two would go hand-in-hand.  The associated question for both A2A and G7G is how coordinated their 'development' projects or relationships/partners will be.  Is Brightline an applicable model? A

I don't know.   I think it is too early for someone like Brightline because Alaska lacks the population density.    I think you would first need to have a similar development effort like we had in the West long ago.    Incent private roadway builders and some private railway lines to build to the Western interior of the state, plat the land into townships and sell to immigrants or new settlers.   What would the developments be centered around is another question.    I don't think the land is overly suitable for farming but perhaps you can start manufacturing products in Alaska that Alaska currently imports and turn that around so then the product is exported.    I would go with manufacturing first because that builds wealth and the economy faster then service.     So maybe different settlements built around manufacturing capabilities or plants of some sort.    They could ship by rail as well, inbound raw materials, outbound finished product and probably export to the Northern part of the Pacific Rim.    Build some new ports in the West with rail lines leading to them.    Look at the success Canada has had with Prince Rupert, BC.    My first visit there it was a tiny town and the rail line leading to it was all single track with few passing sidings.    Now look at the huge container port there and the line leading to it is a lot busier than it was in the past.

Also, it doesn't have to be 100% a United States effort, bring in Japan to invest.   Maybe they can build some auto assembly plants or parts plants up there.   I actually believe all the Pacific Rim countries would want to see Alaska developed vs maintain it's status quo as America's version of Siberia.     It would open a world of new opportunities for all of them.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, October 12, 2020 7:06 AM

OM: Amazing how irrelevant much of the discussion becomes in spite of your valiant efforts to put it back on the logic track.  I give up. 

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Posted by Overmod on Monday, October 12, 2020 3:51 AM

CMStPnP
Develop Alaska and you'll see DoD argue for a rail line connection for it's defense.

Likely as much for support as formal defense; the two would go hand-in-hand.  The associated question for both A2A and G7G is how coordinated their 'development' projects or relationships/partners will be.  Is Brightline an applicable model?

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, October 12, 2020 3:09 AM

Overmod
  That might be less assured in cold and deep-snow conditions, in areas not amenable to heavy lift, where significant grading or heavy fill might be required even for slow speed.

If it was just RJ Corman I might agree but your going to see a pairing of DoD and private capabilities here if it was a vital rail line and it was wartime.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, October 12, 2020 2:58 AM

Overmod
The chief thing that has changed in the last 20 years or so is the development of precision-guided munitions.  Repeated strikes even with low-level cruise missiles would make defense in depth of any mountain railway a crapshoot; with the innovation of long-loiter UAVs it becomes an interesting subject of just what even conventional air superiority might mean to a debilitating strike against traffic as well as bridges, tunnels, or areas where strikes might cause landslip or avalanche either above or below grade.  While a MIRV or MARV strike is unlikely to me, it is likely there are many locations on the proposed railway where very large land movement, probably associated with radiological contamination, could render the railroad as a practical through route interdicted fir an extended time and perhaps permanently; I would suspect that appropriate nuclear ordnance could be delivered by cruise to similar effect.

I can't see them launching an ICBM against Alaska or Western Canada.   There is no targets there high value enough.    So onto the Cruise Missiles which are short range and you need to get really close to launch them with an Aircraft Carrier if your using Aircraft or a Sub.    Surface ship would never get that close unless we lost most of the Pacific Fleet.    

However, unrelated this military discussion is.   It again underscores a main point of the thread that Alaska is not developed enough to represent anything other that a landing zone for paratroopers from Russia or China or for Special Forces sabotage missions.    So it ends up being the same argument why a rail line is not built.   Develop Alaska and you'll see DoD argue for a rail line connection for it's defense.   

 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, October 12, 2020 2:22 AM

greyhounds
Oh, Good Grief!  This is so Charlie Hebdo.  Since he can’t respond to the discussion, he attacks, seeks to discredit, or otherwise diminish the source.

In Daves Defense, I went through Infantry OSUT in 1982,   Followed my Nephew through the course online via a webpage in 2007.   Not a huge change in training.  Attended a 101st Airborne reunion in 2009 with Veterans and Active Duty troops combined.   I was still fully conversant in the MOS, most of the tactics and skillset.   Not a whole lot has changed.....even on the Officer end.   The new technology like the tap screens for confirming air strike targets, mobile LANs and EMail's between vehicles is all new but it doesn't require huge amounts of new training either, it's very inituitive and blends with the old skills well (that is how it was designed).    Pretty sure you could put Dave as an Officer in a unit of today and he could ramp up pretty fast if he was in physical shape for it.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, October 12, 2020 2:15 AM

charlie hebdo
and even then there does not appear to have been a plan to build essentially a military railroad.   

I'm just curious because you stated you served before, why do you think that is? and why do you think DoD designates Hawaii and Alaska as being "overseas"?    

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Posted by Overmod on Monday, October 12, 2020 1:54 AM

daveklepper
Regarding missiles...

Keep in mind we were discussing Cold War situations, presumably facilitating construction or support of BMEWS/DEW and the forward interdiction/interception capability SAC operations could not have provided (except via MAD).  Effective defense against either repeated or massive TOT strike in those years would have been minimal even had we had practical fast-burn systems in place and were willing to use relatively high-yield nuclear heads on them.

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Posted by daveklepper on Monday, October 12, 2020 1:50 AM

I fhink that all English speaking countries will remain allies of the USA, and not just  Canada, but some others might be shaky.  Turkey and Iran were once allies.

And economic warfair seems upon us already, and that factors into this railway's construction.

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Posted by daveklepper on Monday, October 12, 2020 1:34 AM

1.  Much of what you write about rail dangers also applies to heavy-duty highways.

2.  The USA and Canada can be depended upon, in my opinion, to maintain air superiority.  Regarding missels, the USA and Canada have all the equipment and technology that Israel has, and this keeps pace with what the intelligence operations of these three countries learn of develpments in China, Russia, N. Korea, and Iran.  Based on what the Ayatollas seem to keep proclaiming, I would not be sitting at a computer writting this without those defensive capabilities.   

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Posted by Overmod on Monday, October 12, 2020 12:50 AM

charlie hebdo
... there was no DOD plan to build a railroad line through Canada to Alaska for national security.  Was there one?

I have not seen one.  Certainly there was no rail alternative to the Alaska Highway, either in 1942 or 'improved' after 1947, and some very specific reasons, some involving permissible grade and fill quality, why a road for strategic purposes in that country would make better sense.  Anyone who has watched Ice Road Truckers critically would find a railroad alternative a bit silly; it would be like wondering if logging railroads would constitute a logistic preference for ongoing defense of a Russian 'provocation' into Alaska.

No one has seriously considered operating forward air support using selective portions of a double-track main line as runways.  Nor would it be effective to 'portage' even container traffic across a break in the railway, for a variety of fairly predictable reasons.  And it is highly difficult to disguise, let alone hide a railroad of meaningful length from the air or space, even if you could obfuscate its existence (e.g. by pretending the Dease Lake extension was never finished) -- meaning it would be a 1400-mile sitting duck.

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Posted by Overmod on Monday, October 12, 2020 12:35 AM

daveklepper
Actually easier to repair a railroad than a highway...

I have actually read this in a couple of sources, and it has factored into a couple of discussions here including the timeless one about European mainlines being rebuilt 'straighter' after massive wartime bombing in WWII.  The concentration on eliminating French rail capacity is in sources from Churchill's history of the War to assessments of the 8th Air Force performance; the specific difference was mentioned at least once, albeit anecdotally, by Al Staufer about why railroads were superior to autobahns.

The chief thing that has changed in the last 20 years or so is the development of precision-guided munitions.  Repeated strikes even with low-level cruise missiles would make defense in depth of any mountain railway a crapshoot; with the innovation of long-loiter UAVs it becomes an interesting subject of just what even conventional air superiority might mean to a debilitating strike against traffic as well as bridges, tunnels, or areas where strikes might cause landslip or avalanche either above or below grade.  While a MIRV or MARV strike is unlikely to me, it is likely there are many locations on the proposed railway where very large land movement, probably associated with radiological contamination, could render the railroad as a practical through route interdicted fir an extended time and perhaps permanently; I would suspect that appropriate nuclear ordnance could be delivered by cruise to similar effect.

This is different from repairing railroads and yards in open country, where access is relatively simple and ordinary 'shoofly' construction easy.  We have even a couple of recent examples of severe damage ameliorated in a short time where the repair equipment could be brought in and worked easily.  That might be less assured in cold and deep-snow conditions, in areas not amenable to heavy lift, where significant grading or heavy fill might be required even for slow speed.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, October 11, 2020 10:27 PM

You did not respond to my point which was, since you didn't seem to get it,  not that Dave was wrong,  but that when he served or when you did,  there was no DOD plan to build a railroad line through Canada to Alaska for national security.  Was there one? That's the question and the point is that even in the depths of the Cold War there was no such plan.  So why would you,  Mr.  Anti-government, want to spend a huge amount of public money now when it's doubtful private enterprise sees any reason to? 

Just to be clear,  I was not discrediting Dave.  The reason I mentioned the time period was because it was in the Cold War and even then there does not appear to have been a plan to build essentially a military railroad.  If you simply have some personal vendetta,  that's your problem. 

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Posted by greyhounds on Sunday, October 11, 2020 9:45 PM

charlie hebdo
Your ROTC training would have been approximately 65 years ago in the mid-50s in the midst of the Cold War,  pre-ICBMs as weapons delivery systems, so more of a conventional war mentality.   Yet there are no indications that there were any plans back then for the US to build a rail line mostly in Canada for defense purposes.

Oh, Good Grief!  This is so Charlie Hebdo.  Since he can’t respond to the discussion, he attacks, seeks to discredit, or otherwise diminish the source.
 
I may be the guy Dave was referring to.  I did serve as an officer in the US Army Transportation Corps.  I did two years on active duty, two years in the Army Reserve and one year in the Illinois National Guard.  I made it all the way up to 1st Lieutenant, so I didn’t make policy decisions.  I was concerned with things such as checking whether the trucks’ air tanks had been drained after they were parked in the motor pool.   On one memorable event I was standing next to my very good platoon sergeant when I said: “Sergeant, have these air tanks been drained?”  He said: “Yes sir.”  I reached down, turned a valve, and a whole tank of air drained.  I didn’t have to say a word.  I’d wager some soldier truck driver got “counseled.”  I earned my commission through ROTC at the University of Illinois.
 
I left the NG (1644th Transportation Company) because something had to give.  I was working full time with the ICG, going to school at night to get an MBA, and taking care of my house, yard and marriage at the same time.  I’d more than fulfilled my military obligation and I could just resign from the guard.  I liked the Army part of the Army, but the government bureaucracy part drove me nuts.
 
Anyway, with regard to highway vs railway repair:  The rail line is generally better engineered and designed to take heavy loads.  Heavy trucks do beat up highways.  War damage to roads can be quickly repaired, but unless the repair can take the heavy loads it is going to get ripped apart very soon.  Railways are generally better engineered and designed to take the heavy loads.  With a well-engineered railway in place any war damage can be readily repaired with some rocks, panel track, and sweat.
 
I’m open to corrections, except of Charlies’ kind, but… Blowing up some rail doesn’t do much.  It can be fixed in a couple hours.  Heck Fire, the railroads deal with much more damage than that on a regular basis.  And they do it very quickly.  There is a need to worry about such things as tunnels and major bridges.  So, you place a guard force on them.  This is the job of the Military Police.  The MP’s also are responsible for guarding convoys operating on roads.  The MP’s used to have special units designated as “Railway Guards” to do this sort of thing.
 
I won’t go into the tactics of defending a bridge because I've been gone for decades and things do change.  I will say that anyone who shot an ICBM at a rail line would be nuts or desperate.
 
 
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, October 11, 2020 6:38 PM

1. It's the Intracoastal Waterway. 

2. It's  pretty shallow in many places for modern shipping. Minimum depth is supposed to be 12 feet,  but it's only 6-7 feet in some areas. 

3. U-Boots?   Doubtful.  Let's see your documentation for that whopper. Of course they certainly operated off the Atlantic and Gulf coasts early in the war,  sinking many ships in full view of people in cities,  especially tankers at night prior to blackout restrictions. 

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