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Carload is dead? Since when?

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Posted by traisessive1 on Tuesday, June 16, 2020 9:13 PM

The only ways Class One's want to serve customers with low volumes are:

1. Shortlines bring the cars to them.

2. The customer is located within a cluster of other customers where a yard job or road switcher can do mutiple places in one day. 

 

The container is what they want. The container comes to the railroad. That way they still get the traffic but without the expense of a local job having to go get the car. 

10000 feet and no dynamics? Today is going to be a good day ... 

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Posted by RailPlanner on Tuesday, June 16, 2020 7:12 PM

I think we have to not mix the terms carload and loose car.  The railroading many of us old-timers miss is the small shipper "loose car"operation (like most model railroads attempt to emulate).  The lumber yard that gets oneor two cars of lumber or brick at a time...or the small elevator that shipsout 4 or 5 cars at a time...or Iremember well from the '50s...the ubiquitous 40 ton coal hopper going to the local coal yard for supplying home heating coal. When I worked for a  regional planning commission in western Wisc. in the 1970s I prepared several reports on behalf of the local governmemts trying to prevent the massive branchline abandonments that were going on at the time under the "3R'and the "4R"Railroad Acts...the little one car at a time lumber yards or grain mills were seeing their branch lines going away...Sparta-Viroqua, Trempealeu-Galesville  Fairchild-Mondovi all Milwaukee and CNW lines.  Now where are C,M, St.P & P and the C& NW?

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Posted by mkwelbornjr on Tuesday, June 16, 2020 6:33 PM

There is still a high volume of specialized car loads.   Tank cars, coil cars, etc.  Sure there has been a decline of recent but this is just following the economy.  

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Posted by scilover on Thursday, June 11, 2020 5:02 AM
From the articles I’ve read, carloads in the US are in fact dying. In 2019, the decline in carloads for large U.S. railroads widened to 5.5% in the third quarter, it is the biggest drop in three years!
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Posted by jsanchez on Wednesday, June 10, 2020 2:18 PM

wasd

I commonly hear that carload is a dying sector for railroads. I was wondering how people came to this conclusion? Carloads as a whole may be down from its peak, but does that mean that carload railroading will disappear entirely, or that most carload freight has mostly disappeared to trucking? I think there may be some major factors that people have overlooked.

The first is that far too often, coal and grain are factored into the discussion. Obviously, thermal coal is dying, though metallurgical coal will stick around for the foreseeable future. Grain is very heavily influenced by international trade, and as was seen recently, trade disputes can hurt volumes. With these two commodities making up a sizeable portion of carloads, they often factor heavily into the conversation and make things look worse than they really are. The second is that manufacturing and heavy industry has declined in the US. Carload primarily serves this market, so if there is less manufacturing and industry, then there are fewer carloads. The third is that many commodities are just no longer moved as much or at all. A good example of this is newsprint. It was once commonly moved all over the continent by rail, but since newsprint demand has declined, carloads of newsprint also decline.

The last two factors also explain the rise of intermodal. As manufacturing moves overseas, imports and container moves increase. In addition, as the economy shifts more towards the consumer, lighter, more valuable shipments best moved in containers will increase as well.

Despite some setbacks, the rail industry seems decently positioned for the future. Even carload has prospects for growth, as transloading and shortlines cater to new markets. I think the recent doom and gloom has been a bit overblown. What do you think?

 

It is far from dead, there is a lot of coordination with shortlines, regionals and class ones with developing new business, most car load declines have been in coal. Some of the most lucrative traffic for railroads is hauling plastic pellets and chemicals( I had a nice talk with a Union Pacific executive a while back with how they loved this type of car load freight, it is very lucrative!). Another growth business is paper products used in making boxes for all those Amazon shipments, there are all kinds of opportunities for hauling more food and agricutural products. Shortlines are doing a lot with new transloading business, even on class ones, I know of quite a few new customer/industrial siding projects in the works. If a railroad can make money on loose car load business they are still interested. I think it is interesting that most of the cuts with Precision Scheduled Railroading have been centered around intermodal lanes with low margins and low volumes. Several new intermodal yards have been shuttered since PSR ,including the CSX yard in the Pittsburgh area which was only a few years old. Yes humps have been closed, but the car load yards are for the most part still busy flat switching and block swapping. If car load freight was dead we would not be seing 200 plus car DP trains with hoppers, certerbeam lumber cars, box cars, you name it, hauling heavy tonnage freight.

 

James Sanchez

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Posted by JoeBlow on Tuesday, June 9, 2020 5:40 PM

Car load is dying? Yes, on the class 1 megasystems. Or at least it is not pursued.

Check out the shortlines and regionals and it is a different story. Team tracks, 1 or 2 car capacity customers being serviced galore.

It is a business decision. UP and BNSF have the luxury of having large volume customers and the shortlines/regionals do not. 

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Posted by samfp1943 on Tuesday, June 9, 2020 12:37 PM

First of all, wasd: Welcome

  After reading your post, I think that the issue you present may be one of 'definition' ?       The term car load, as is used on this Forum, may be in reference to the specific use of 'Boxcars' ?   

    Of course, generally, every other type of rail car is loaded to its 'capacity'; that useage gains the most value in transportation of the commodity being shipped on that car's loaded, bill of lading.

 Boxcars, as well are loaded to their capacity; in some uses that car may be loaded in other[several/] locations, to fill the car to its listed capacity.   The either shipped to a final destination, or used to 'drop ship' the load contained within that car on its Billing for that load(s?).   It used to be a common practice within the rail industry to load boxcars, and use them to 'drop' shipments in several locations. Many railroads had facilities in their major cities( or) population areas.  Those terminals woud ususlly have a labor force to consolidate shipments , or unload (box)cars  of L.T.L shipments; the freight would either be held for a customer p/u or transloaded into rail company's own truck-line trucks for final deliveries.   

[Post WWII and after Korea, Sears. Roebuck was a source for knocked-down homes, that were shipped in boxcars,to destinations close to their final-build sites.]

 Your other assumptions about 'where has the freight gone' is an indicator that currently, railroads prefer to handle multiple car shipments; they being unit gran shipments, some chemicals (agri fertilizer ingredients,and dry flow powders like cement, etc. )  The trucking business is always available to use those same elements; although in smaller quantities than the rail car shipments. 

The factory shipping and loading business, has been complicated by things like car availability, switching costs and schedules, and other cost items that drive costs of smaller shipments up.  In the railroad management's view the larger the better....

 

 


 

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, June 9, 2020 12:15 PM

tree68
I would opine that carload, as we knew it, is declining.

But the traffic is still there.

It's in containers.  

Instead of long trains of boxcars, we now see long trains of containers, as well as trailers.

For that matter, grain no longer moves in boxcars, but in hoppers.  Granted, that change was a while ago, but it still accounts for a drop in the number of boxcars on the railroads.

Can't kiss the railroads goodbye just yet.

Don't forget, at one time new automobiles were transported in specially equipped box cars.  Now they are transported in multi-level autoracks in far higher quantities than were ever tranported in box cars.

Transportation and the containers used to move products have evolved over time - somebody has a better idea and the financial muscle to bring it to reality and it rules the market until the next better idea becomes a reality.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, June 9, 2020 11:48 AM

I would opine that carload, as we knew it, is declining.

But the traffic is still there.

It's in containers.  

Instead of long trains of boxcars, we now see long trains of containers, as well as trailers.

For that matter, grain no longer moves in boxcars, but in hoppers.  Granted, that change was a while ago, but it still accounts for a drop in the number of boxcars on the railroads.

Can't kiss the railroads goodbye just yet.

LarryWhistling
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Posted by Atlantic and Hibernia on Tuesday, June 9, 2020 11:31 AM

What I fund maddening is that carload traffic was the original self-driving truck

Sigh...

Kevin

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    March 2020
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Carload is dead? Since when?
Posted by wasd on Saturday, June 6, 2020 1:58 PM

I commonly hear that carload is a dying sector for railroads. I was wondering how people came to this conclusion? Carloads as a whole may be down from its peak, but does that mean that carload railroading will disappear entirely, or that most carload freight has mostly disappeared to trucking? I think there may be some major factors that people have overlooked.

The first is that far too often, coal and grain are factored into the discussion. Obviously, thermal coal is dying, though metallurgical coal will stick around for the foreseeable future. Grain is very heavily influenced by international trade, and as was seen recently, trade disputes can hurt volumes. With these two commodities making up a sizeable portion of carloads, they often factor heavily into the conversation and make things look worse than they really are. The second is that manufacturing and heavy industry has declined in the US. Carload primarily serves this market, so if there is less manufacturing and industry, then there are fewer carloads. The third is that many commodities are just no longer moved as much or at all. A good example of this is newsprint. It was once commonly moved all over the continent by rail, but since newsprint demand has declined, carloads of newsprint also decline.

The last two factors also explain the rise of intermodal. As manufacturing moves overseas, imports and container moves increase. In addition, as the economy shifts more towards the consumer, lighter, more valuable shipments best moved in containers will increase as well.

Despite some setbacks, the rail industry seems decently positioned for the future. Even carload has prospects for growth, as transloading and shortlines cater to new markets. I think the recent doom and gloom has been a bit overblown. What do you think?

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