The following link is a very long paper on possible outlooks of various lines of how the covid-19 pandemic will become in the next 5 years. It examines how other Coronavirus infections have come and gone and various types of resistances to each. Especially noted is Sars and Mers. Good luck reading and do not try to absorb in one reading!
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793
It will smother every form of entertainment and escape we have. Every forum and all social media will become COVID-24/7 until discussion of anything else is gone. It's a conspiracy. It's all run by a big eastern syndicate, don't you know! -Lucy VanPelt
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
Petty factionalism will evolve into a broad schism between two major segments of society. Those who wish to stay safe and sheltered, vs those who prioritize commerce and personal gain into an imperative to return to the old ways.
While the latter is ravaged into extinction, the former inherits the earth and lives happily ever after in a new, golden age of abundance.
I find it interesting that no religious leader has called for a national or personal repentance. And everybody is saying; "WE will get through this.", "Science will save us." Religious leaders are even tempting God with their ego to meet for religious events in rebellion against the science they are relying on. (Matt. 4:7, Luke 4:12, Deut 6:16, Deut 8:3).
Even here in Iowa people are touting, "Iowa Proud", paying no heed that "Pride goeth before a fall."
I don't think science will save us. I don't think WE will get through this. I think WE will all fall.
Okay, you can now admonish me for bringing religion into the forum. You can berate me for not being "inclusive" and not showing "Christian forgiveness". Blast away.
Semper Vaporo
Pkgs.
The former will starve to death or go to civil war with each other...who makes the food and delivers it?
My hope is that the ChiComs lose every inch of soil, packing plant, and hotel in this country for creating this virus..yes they created it.
Convicted One, you pretty much described the movie, "The Time Machine" from 1966. So it will be Morlocks and Eloi? Some (obvously the power structure) will live underground in bunkers and others will "take their chances in the sunshine" and look what happened to them. No, I think that when covid 19 passes life will go on much as it has.No strongmen taking power, no human cattle. No chances for gun nuts to kill their neighbours for the sake of a roll of bumwad.
Convicted One Petty factionalism will evolve into a broad schism between two major segments of society. Those who wish to stay safe and sheltered, vs those who prioritize commerce and personal gain into an imperative to return to the old ways. While the latter is ravaged into extinction, the former inherits the earth and lives happily ever after in a new, golden age of abundance.
I would say that the schism is the basic political divide that fundamentally exists, and existed prior to the pandemic. I conclude that those who favor the mandated shelter and safety versus those preferring personal freedom to react to the virus as they see fit are just a natural expression of that underlying fundamental political divide. So, the conflict over continued lockdowns versus saving the economy was predictable as just another manifestation of the underlying divide.
Are any of the railfan parks still open?
That's an outdoor activity that can be done safely with social distancing. Plus, exposure to sunlight does the virus no good (I can't prove that it has a deleterious effect, but sunlight in moderation can't hurt - unlike fish tank cleaner . . . ).
- PDN.
Paul_D_North_Jr Are any of the railfan parks still open? That's an outdoor activity that can be done safely with social distancing. Plus, exposure to sunlight does the virus no good (I can't prove that it has a deleterious effect, but sunlight in moderation can't hurt - unlike fish tank cleaner . . . ). - PDN.
EuclidI would say that the schism is the basic political divide that fundamentally exists, and existed prior to the pandemic.
We have a great propensity to attribute to a single cause, problems that are the probuct of many. Stir in a little apophenia....and you have a recipe where you can blame all the world's problems on the target group of your preference.
"Those folks don't share my sense of priority, therefore they must be ****"
Personally I think that the stay at home vs return to work is a bigger issue than the petty differences that routinely divide us....indeed people from both sides of the traditional divides might find they have more in common with some of those whom they have traditionally opposed than others they have felt aligned with for years.
Survival makes strange bedfellows. It's the moderates (I think) who will lead the way.
54light15Convicted One, you pretty much described the movie, "The Time Machine" from 1966. So it will be Morlocks and Eloi?
I think that some are trying to sell me more along the lines of "Gran Torino", and I'm simply not ready to die for the cause yet.
Convicted One Euclid I would say that the schism is the basic political divide that fundamentally exists, and existed prior to the pandemic. We have a great propensity to attribute to a single cause, problems that are the probuct of many. Stir in a little apophenia....and you have a recipe where you can blame all the world's problems on the target group of your preference. "Those folks don't share my sense of priority, therefore they must be ****" Personally I think that the stay at home vs return to work is a bigger issue than the petty differences that routinely divide us....indeed people from both sides of the traditional divides might find they have more in common with some of those whom they have traditionally opposed than others they have felt aligned with for years. Survival makes strange bedfellows. It's the moderates (I think) who will lead the way.
Euclid I would say that the schism is the basic political divide that fundamentally exists, and existed prior to the pandemic.
That all may be true, but it has nothing to do with my comments from which you quoted.
Euclidat all may be true, but it has nothing to do with my comments from which you quoted.
Yes it does, you were trying to pigeon hole the "stay at home vs back to work" deliberation into the stale framework that we have seen played out daily in the media for years.
And I don't believe that traditional dem/rep lib/con oppositions are the dividing point on the decision to shelter or not.
Sure, there are members in each camp who have preferences, but I don't think that historical partisian divide is the actual break point. Survival is.
I mentioned apophenia for a reason.
I believe the divide is actually two different arguments, for the most part. The first is the Dem/Rep divide and the second is based on age. The older people know it can happen to them and the younger ones think they're invincible.
Convicted One...but I don't think that historical partisian divide is the actual break point. Survival is. I mentioned apophenia for a reason.
Survival is one motive. A massive poltical agenda is the other motive. For that motive, the virus driving a need to shut down the economy is a gift from heaven.
Euclid A massive poltical agenda is the other motive. For that motive, the virus driving a need to shut down the economy is a gift from heaven.
And the petit tyrants are having a field day. Efforts are surfacing regarding padding of counts by associating them with the virus whether they are, in fact, or not. These petit tyrants must maintain their populace in fear or they have no power.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
EuclidSurvival is one motive. A massive poltical agenda is the other motive. For that motive, the virus driving a need to shut down the economy is a gift from heaven.
I wish this didn't make as much sense as it does. Just as "being paranoid doesn't necessarily mean they're not out to get you", recognizing the existence of apophenia doesn't necessarily mean things aren't related.
There is little doubt that various people jumped on the 'coronavirus' bandwagon in order to get it to the current level of recognition and governmental 'action'. I expect the same kinds of factor that led the Republicans in the first year of the Trump administration to fail to 'roll back Obamacare' to lead to dramatically slow "repeal" of many of the emergency provisions passed when everyone was dying. It took a far longer time to get rid of the silly double-nickel 'gas-saving' speed limit once gas saving was no longer a knee-jerk priority for millions; in a sense, it still persists in dear old traffic-attorney-run Virginia where 'statutory reckless driving' is still calculated relative to a 55mph limit even on roads built and maintained to over 70mph 85th-percentile standards.
What we're approaching is a social singularity, and as with most other singularities what we'll actually settle into on the 'far side' of the new-normal social changes may be largely unrecognizable to those of us looking at the situation now. Perhaps the silver lining in this is that some of the 'unchangeable' inequities and social conventions in current society will change along with other parts of the paradigm.
I certainly don't see society collapsing into another 'depression of the 70% just to suit the whims of the 1%' -- although if we do the same craven fallback into bank-creditworthiness and quarterly-results-driven economics that we did from the 'friction-free economy' after the 2001 crash, perhaps we will once again deserve the democracy we elect. Unfortunately, both the personal effort and the general social will to 'improve things' will have to be very high, much higher than a society that prizes "diversity" as if it were a core unifying value is likely to produce on its own, and unlikely long-term to be sustainable by the usual forms of influence and shaming that have been so effective in producing PC kinds of perception in those learning in various parts of our current society.
What I am more worried about is the transient characteristics that lead to the singularity, and that will doubtless characterize any convergence to stability on the 'far side' of its effective event horizon. Again, enormous parts of that will have to hinge on some commonly-accepted kinds of morality and acceptable ethics, and while I think this is not objectively difficult to achieve in a properly diverse-and-proud-of-it society it is also something that can be easily short-routed by a wide variety of fairly predictable distortions, conspiracies, call them what you will according to your personal philosophies or level of tinfoil haberdashery ... but characterizable by expedient compromise of 'haves' for purposes more satisfying to them than as 'consent of the governed'.
EuclidSurvival is one motive.
It is my firm belief that faction shall flourish while the other gradually dwindles. Bravado makes an unfortunate epitaph.
Convicted One Euclid Survival is one motive. It is my firm belief that faction shall flourish while the other gradually dwindles. Bravado makes an unfortunate epitaph.
Euclid Survival is one motive.
I don't see why one faction has to fall if the other rises.
I suspect that we will start to see some civil disobedience - especially regarding some of the less logical prohibitions.
Golf courses, f'rinstance. While the course is still "closed," an owner could decline to proscecute "trespassers," meanwhile taking a trip around the course for security purposes - and to collect the contents of the "tip containers" scattered amongst the tees.
The municipal boat launches might be closed, but marina owners might look the other way when you launch your fishing boat. Except when they're emptying out the "tip jar."
Local law enforcement might put a very low priority on things like people walking on a beach or in a park (that cooped up couple beating on each other clearly has precedence). Even a pick-up softball game might not engender a lot of scrutiny (again, ignored by the diamond owner).
Bear in mind that these activities can certainly occur in areas where the virus has had minimal impact (my county is up to just 50 confirmed cases and no deaths since this all began). And folks will have to be respectful of others. Keep that six feet of social distancing. Don't show up at the beach or park with 100 of your closest friends.
The danger will be if the petit tyrants find out and threaten financial penalties (ie, loss of aid) against the governing agencies.
Sheriffs protest governor's executive order
https://www.record-eagle.com/collections/sheriffs-protest-governors-executive-order/article_f690d06a-7f4a-11ea-ae83-8f568b188a52.html
From the link:
"Some of Whitmer’s restrictions overstep her executive authority, they said. The orders are vague and confuse people and instead of enforcing the restrictions, each case will be handled individually.
“We’re trying to apply some common sense to the situation we’re in,” Schendel said.
In Mason County a couple drove to a two-track to go for a walk, Cole said. When they got in their car to go home they were stopped by a Michigan State Police trooper who issued them a $1,000 fine."
Convicted One Euclid Survival is one motive.
I just checked the current data from the CDC/ National Center For Health Statistics concerning COVID-19 deaths. This is from the period covering 2/1/10 to 4/11/20.
Deaths from COVID-19, 13,130. Deaths from all other causes, 582,565.
Now allow me to think out loud for a bit, you can agree or disagree as you choose, I won't argue or be offended.
We are apporaching a "tipping point," and by that I mean the ugly problem of arithmetic that many leaders have to solve in one way or another, in this case the greatest good for the greatest number.
What's the death toll for COVID-19 likely to be? No-one knows. Measure that against the 22 million out of work, and facing poverty or one kind of economic distress or another. At what point do you lift the lockdowns and quarantines to get those unemployed back to work? And bear in mind those unemployed want to work, they don't want to spend who-knows-how-long on the dole. We're seeing the frustration level rising as we speak.
The time is fast approaching when the decision has to be made and the risk assumed. And I don't believe it's a case of "Ideology versus national interest." All successful leaders through history have realised that when it comes to the above national interest always wins out. The unsuccessful ones (Think Hitler and his mad ideology) don't.
Personally, when the lid comes off I think those with money to spend are going to go out and spend it and the economy will show no long-term effects. When those without the money catch up they'll start spending again as well.
When it comes to assuming risk I remember what President Lincoln said before he issued the Emancipation Proclamation. He knew it was a risk, and this is what he said:
"If I do this, and we win, then all will come right in the end. But if I do this and we lose, all the angels in Heaven saying I was right will make no difference!"
Needless to say, Abe made sure he won!
How do we win? Pick a target date, the middle of May for example, that's the time when historically flu season begins to slack off. A date gives people hope, a target to shoot at. Then remove the restrictions and see what happens. I'm optimistic things will get to normal pretty quickly.
Actually there are three motives:
1) Survival
2) Slowing the economy
3) Making a living by working
Items #1 and #3 are in conflict with each other to the extent that survival requires not working.
And likewise with that same requirement, items #1 and #2 are linked so that as #1 increases, so does #2.
Flintlock76The unsuccessful ones (Think Hitler and his mad ideology) don't.
Godwin's law rides again!!
I (personally) anticipate that some state will go "renegade", and the success or failure that results will guide others.
If I understand it correctly, a new plan for lifting versus maintaining lockdowns has been agreed upon and implemented with a blended approach that will follow the medical numbers indicating the status of the spread. The blended plan is neither the will of Trump or of the Governors.
This is a big change because earlier last week, Trump told the reporters that the President has absolute power and therefore, he could override decisions by the Governors to remain locked down after he gives the order to unlock.
That position abruptly changed with a reversal to allow the blended plan to go forward. But while Trump deferred to the blended plan, it is not clear whether all of the Governors will do likewise.
In northern NY, legislative and local leaders are pointing out to the governor that we are very different from NYC. Reopening some businesses and recreational facilities is very possible, still maintaining social distancing and other requisite practices.
NYC has had 90% of the cases (and an even greater percentage of the deaths) attributed to NY state. Bronx has had over 25,000 cases, Nassau County (Long Island) almost 28,000 cases.
My county has had just 50 confirmed cases (almost all of whom have recovered at this point) and no deaths.
Right now there are maybe 100 people under precautionary quarantine here - they may have been in contact with a confirmed case. I know two of them. So far neither has shown any sign of sickness.
Our hospitals are laying off staff, including medical staff. Farmers are dumping milk.
No one is advocating for a free-for-all, but keeping things at the current level of lockdown is ridiculous.
Convicted One Flintlock76 The unsuccessful ones (Think Hitler and his mad ideology) don't. Godwin's law rides again!! I (personally) anticipate that some state will go "renegade", and the success or failure that results will guide others.
Flintlock76 The unsuccessful ones (Think Hitler and his mad ideology) don't.
I have to admit I had to look up "Godwin's Law." Oh, so that's what it is.
I mentioned Adolf because I couldn't think of a better example.
How about one in reverse? When the Soviet Union was invaded in June of 1941 Winston Churchill, a life-long anti-Communist, immediately sought to make common cause with Stalin, and was successful. Here was a case of a leader forgetting his personal ideology because it was in the national interest to do so.
How's that?
Flintlock76How's that?
I'm thinking that those trying to advance the idea that sacrificing the lives of some is a worthwhile bargain in order to get the economy restarted, likely have more in common with uncle Adolf than they realize.
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