Trains.com

News Wire: Creel sees mergers as inevitable, but delayed by Precision Scheduled Railroading

3097 views
41 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
Moderator
  • Member since
    January 2011
  • From: Wisconsin
  • 1,532 posts
Posted by Brian Schmidt on Monday, January 6, 2020 1:15 PM

Brian Schmidt, Editor, Classic Trains magazine

  • Member since
    February 2003
  • From: Guelph, Ontario
  • 4,819 posts
Posted by Ulrich on Monday, January 6, 2020 1:48 PM

I certainly agree with him on the need for building "bridges" to Ottawa and Washington. About more mergers.. i don't know.. it seems to me the railroads work very well together now without the need for mergers.. and another round of mergers would almost certainly come at the cost of complex interchange agreements and cumbersome restrictions to preserve some vestige of competition. Why not work closer together without merging? That would also permit some flexibility that would not be possible with only a couple or three large carriers and would be less likely to  invite more regulatory oversight. 

 

  • Member since
    January 2019
  • From: Henrico, VA
  • 9,728 posts
Posted by Flintlock76 on Monday, January 6, 2020 2:16 PM

Call me a cynic,  but instead of mergers I could see flat-out offers of sale by "whoever" owns "whatever" once the short-sighted-next-quarter fanatics think they've milked as much money out of their "whatevers" that they can, and aren't likely to get any more, or any more than they're getting right now. 

Happened to the company I used to work for.  One day a new red-hot gee-whiz CEO took over;  laid-off, cut-back, and streamlined the company to maximize profits, not to make the company stronger, but to make it an attractive take-over target for others.  It worked.  The company was sold, the owners made a bundle, he took his "golden parachute," and was on his merry way.  

Which is why even though I never took my job and paycheck for granted, and gave it 100% every day and didn't mind doing so, I've never been a "rah-rah" company guy.  It's a company, not a family.

"Hey mister, wanna buy Norfolk-Southern?"

  • Member since
    May 2019
  • 1,768 posts
Posted by MMLDelete on Monday, January 6, 2020 4:03 PM

Creel sure worships at the altar of EHH.

  • Member since
    January 2019
  • From: Henrico, VA
  • 9,728 posts
Posted by Flintlock76 on Monday, January 6, 2020 4:54 PM

Lithonia Operator

Creel sure worships at the altar of EHH.

 

Hunter Harrison, "Saint or Sinner?"  

Like every other controversial man, it probably depends on who you talk to.  

I did find Mr. Creel's remark "Hunter might be in jail..." interesting.  I wonder over what?  Depending on who checks in on this topic, I'm sure we'll find out.

  • Member since
    June 2007
  • From: Brooklyn Center, MN.
  • 702 posts
Posted by Los Angeles Rams Guy on Monday, January 6, 2020 7:35 PM

Ulrich

I certainly agree with him on the need for building "bridges" to Ottawa and Washington. About more mergers.. i don't know.. it seems to me the railroads work very well together now without the need for mergers.. and another round of mergers would almost certainly come at the cost of complex interchange agreements and cumbersome restrictions to preserve some vestige of competition. Why not work closer together without merging? That would also permit some flexibility that would not be possible with only a couple or three large carriers and would be less likely to  invite more regulatory oversight. 

 

 

While I'll never buy into the PSR thing, I do think Mr. Creel has a point when it comes to the almost-inevitablity of mergers.  It's just bound to happen sooner or later.  But, more importantly, I hope it's the "right" combinations that take place.   

 

"Beating 'SC is not a matter of life or death. It's more important than that." Former UCLA Head Football Coach Red Sanders
  • Member since
    January 2015
  • 2,678 posts
Posted by kgbw49 on Monday, January 6, 2020 10:34 PM

What will happen once the first domino falls - say CP as the smallest of the Big 6 tries to buy NS because it is the next lowest capitalized of the Big 6 - the others will all join in and you will have a carving up of the two eastern US railroads amongst the other 4 of the Big 6 plus KCS.

Why?

Because Canada will never let either one of their railroads be acquired by a US railroad, so there will always be a CN and a CP.

But the two western railroads are the biggest sharks in the ocean in terms of resources, so they will swim in to get their fill and will always be there as UP and BNSF.

NS and CSX will be carved up by the STB amongst those four, in the same manner that Conrail was split between NS and CSX a generation ago.

KCS will get some small portion or itself be split up or turned in to a shared assets line of some sort between CP and CN.

One cloudy and cracked crystal ball.

  • Member since
    February 2003
  • From: Guelph, Ontario
  • 4,819 posts
Posted by Ulrich on Monday, January 6, 2020 10:48 PM

Well, a merger would certainly take some pressure off of the need to be competitive, not that there's much competition out there now in the rail industry. 10 or 20 carriers would be much better... more competition..more choice for the consumer.. smaller more nimble companies that are easier to manage, with fewer layers of management. Competition is the cornerstone of capitalism.. take that away and you're left with an unwieldy utility with no get up and go and no incentive to get better. 

 

 

  • Member since
    September 2013
  • 6,199 posts
Posted by Miningman on Monday, January 6, 2020 11:20 PM

Kgbw49--- Your analysis is right on.. no cracked and cloudy crystal ball, it's seems very clear to me. I think it unfolds and ends up just as you say. 

  • Member since
    December 2017
  • From: I've been everywhere, man
  • 4,269 posts
Posted by SD70Dude on Monday, January 6, 2020 11:34 PM

Brian Schmidt

'If I did and said some of the things Hunter said and did, I’d be in jail.'

Yep.

During the 2007 CN strike there came about a very strange situation, the international UTU leadership declared the strike illegal, and went into court WITH CN against the Canadian union leaders. 

Harrison had somehow managed to "win over" certain important people in the UTU.

You can imagine how well this went over with the Canadian membership.  The UTU ended up being decertified here, and we are now Teamsters. 

This article gives a pretty good summary.  Also of note, Frank Wilner now writes for Railway Age, never mentioning his own role in the 2007 charade.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2007/02/22/RailStrike/

And while they are not illegal, Harrison's obscene nicknames for Canadian crews are still well known among the workforce here.

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

  • Member since
    October 2014
  • 1,139 posts
Posted by Gramp on Tuesday, January 7, 2020 1:24 AM

Is the key statement that nobody wants them in their backyard?

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, January 7, 2020 7:49 AM
So Creel needs mergers to create more capacity, but he is now using PSR to create new capacity, and that is preventing mergers.  Why are mergers and PSR mutually exclusively, as Creel implies?
  • Member since
    February 2003
  • From: Guelph, Ontario
  • 4,819 posts
Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, January 7, 2020 1:30 PM

Would be nice if someone could explain exactly how mergers would create capacity/improve efficiencies. Even economies of scale are subject to the law of  diminishing returns beyond a certain size. All of the major systems now interchange equipment easily enough... most even have run through agreements that eliminate the need for swapping power..  As it is now many if not most shippers really have only one option when it comes to rail... further consolidation would create an "its our way or the highway" type of scenario for most shippers..  

 

 

  • Member since
    August 2019
  • 260 posts
Posted by Psychot on Tuesday, January 7, 2020 4:59 PM

Ulrich

Would be nice if someone could explain exactly how mergers would create capacity/improve efficiencies. Even economies of scale are subject to the law of  diminishing returns beyond a certain size. All of the major systems now interchange equipment easily enough... most even have run through agreements that eliminate the need for swapping power..  As it is now many if not most shippers really have only one option when it comes to rail... further consolidation would create an "its our way or the highway" type of scenario for most shippers..  

 

 

 

I would think mergers between the western U.S. class 1's and the eastern class 1's would go a long way toward eliminating the Chicago bottleneck because the resulting railroads would be truly transcontinental and could find alternative ways to route traffic.

  • Member since
    September 2017
  • 5,636 posts
Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, January 7, 2020 5:46 PM

Doubtful.  All the best trackage comes through Chicago. Especially going east from St. Louis, it's not so good. 

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Northern New York
  • 25,020 posts
Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, January 7, 2020 7:05 PM

charlie hebdo

Doubtful.  All the best trackage comes through Chicago. Especially going east from St. Louis, it's not so good.

True, but a with few ties and some ballast many of those lines would probably be more than up to the task.

Given those upgraded routes, the next step would involve thinking past Chicago for traffic that has no need to be in Chicago.  

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

  • Member since
    February 2003
  • From: Guelph, Ontario
  • 4,819 posts
Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, January 7, 2020 7:58 PM

All of which can be accomplished without mergers.. its not as if alternatives to routing through Chicago magically appear...the tracks are already there with or without mergers.

  • Member since
    September 2017
  • 5,636 posts
Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, January 8, 2020 2:16 PM

tree68

 

 
charlie hebdo

Doubtful.  All the best trackage comes through Chicago. Especially going east from St. Louis, it's not so good.

 

True, but a with few ties and some ballast many of those lines would probably be more than up to the task.

Given those upgraded routes, the next step would involve thinking past Chicago for traffic that has no need to be in Chicago.  

 

Have you seen some of those lines?  A lot more than a few ties and some ballast would-be needed to bring up to standards. The industry is hardly in an expansionist mode,  closer to a contracting one. 

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Northern New York
  • 25,020 posts
Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, January 8, 2020 2:36 PM

charlie hebdo
Have you seen some of those lines?  A lot more than a few ties and some ballast would-be needed to bring up to standards.

Well, I was being somewhat facetious.  The point is, those lines exist, and if a railroad saw value in bringing them back up to snuff, they could do so...

It's not like we're talking all new construction.

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: MP CF161.6 NS's New Castle District in NE Indiana
  • 2,148 posts
Posted by rrnut282 on Wednesday, January 8, 2020 2:53 PM

Re Chicago:  Cue the discussion of the Great Lakes Basin Railroad.

Mike (2-8-2)
  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, January 8, 2020 5:40 PM

rrnut282
Re Chicago:  Cue the discussion of the Great Lakes Basin Railroad.

Forgetaboutit!

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    September 2011
  • 6,449 posts
Posted by MidlandMike on Wednesday, January 8, 2020 9:51 PM

Ulrich
All of the major systems now interchange equipment easily enough...

Fred Frailey blogged that this was not so.  The Class1s have no priority in making transfers to other RRs in one of his Chicago blogs.  The western RRs made Chicago the interchange point to get the longest possible haul.  In another blog he pointed out how NS's Kansas City line would be an obvious alternative to Chicago, but a western RR would have to have some stake in it.  IMHO Transcontental mergers are long overdue.

  • Member since
    June 2002
  • 20,096 posts
Posted by daveklepper on Thursday, January 9, 2020 6:52 AM

I don't value NS management highly for several reasons, and underutilization of the KC interchange point is certainly one of them.

Sure, utilization of KC reduces UP's and BNCF's mileage, but it also reduces their own costs.  So all NS has to do, equitibly for both UP and CXS is to adjust the mileage spllt determination is such a way that NS continues to benefit, but a bit less from the split, and UP and BNSF also benefit as far as their bottom line. I'll bet BNSF's savvy management has tried to get this idea through the rigid heads at NS already!

  • Member since
    September 2017
  • 5,636 posts
Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, January 9, 2020 9:23 AM

Perhaps Oltmann  or n01xxx or Jeff could give us more accurate info on run through and other interchanges in Chicago. 

  • Member since
    January 2015
  • 2,678 posts
Posted by kgbw49 on Thursday, January 9, 2020 12:57 PM

BNSF has worked out intermodal haulage agreements with CSX for, first Atlanta many years ago, and more recently North Baltimore in Ohio.

With both of those routes and locations, with reasonable drays they are able to serve many a significant number of locations in the south and in eastern Michigan, Ohio, and the Ohio River Valley with intermodal service,

http://www.bnsf.com/ship-with-bnsf/maps-and-shipping-locations/pdf/small-intermodal-map.pdf

It is my understanding that they have built up over the years to several trains per day to and from Atlanta. I am not sure how much traffic yet is going to and from the North Baltimore facility given it is a fairly recent agreement.

  • Member since
    December 2007
  • From: Georgia USA SW of Atlanta
  • 11,919 posts
Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, January 9, 2020 10:29 PM

kgbw49

BNSF has worked out intermodal haulage agreements with CSX for, first Atlanta many years ago, and more recently North Baltimore in Ohio.

modal-map.pdf

It is my understanding that they have built up over the years to several trains per day to and from Atlanta. I am not sure how much traffic yet is going to and from the North Baltimore facility given it is a fairly recent agreement.

 

Yes BNSF haulage trains on CSX Birmingham - Atlanta area locations are about 5 trains each way per day.  Even though BNSF operates a lot of their IM trains with DPU have never observed one BHM <> ATL.  Instead they operate with 3 or 4 locos on the front only.  Often observed 4th on line maintaining MAS on A&WP sub.  At slower speeds often only 3 units on line.

  • Member since
    August 2009
  • 322 posts
Posted by BLS53 on Thursday, January 9, 2020 11:31 PM

tree68

 

 
charlie hebdo
Have you seen some of those lines?  A lot more than a few ties and some ballast would-be needed to bring up to standards.

 

Well, I was being somewhat facetious.  The point is, those lines exist, and if a railroad saw value in bringing them back up to snuff, they could do so...

 

It's not like we're talking all new construction.

 

The only eastbound lines left out of St. Louis are the NS old Wabash line to Detroit, and the CSX former PRR to New York. The only line that could possibly be revived, is the recently abandoned CSX, former B&O line to Washington. 

The NYC and NKP lines have been gone for decades, and the land is either in private hands, or turned into hiking trails.

The NS (SOU) and fragments of the L&N (now Evansville & Western) remain, but those ultimately proceed southbound after crossing Illinois, and aren't true eastbound routes.

  • Member since
    September 2017
  • 5,636 posts
Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 10, 2020 6:12 AM

So barring a major investment in rebuilding,  the St. Louis gateway is a non-starter, right? 

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Northern New York
  • 25,020 posts
Posted by tree68 on Friday, January 10, 2020 7:16 AM

charlie hebdo

So barring a major investment in rebuilding,  the St. Louis gateway is a non-starter, right? 

Sounds that way.

 

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

  • Member since
    January 2015
  • 2,678 posts
Posted by kgbw49 on Friday, January 10, 2020 10:15 AM

Sante Fe to North Baltimore from Kansas City via the B&O east of Chicago (using the old names) is two main track all the way, with, of course, all the hurdles of at-grade crossings on the southwest and south sides of the Chicago metro area.

The Wabash east of Kansas City to Detroit is all single track (bypassing St. Louis to the north, by the way). Train density will determine transit speed, of course, but it would seem to suggest that the two main track route would be faster, even with having to transit a part of Chicago.

if one looks at the BNSF Intermodal Map, probably the next thing they could do is extend their CSX haulage agreements to maybe Chambersburg, PA in the north and Charlotte, NC in the south.

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy