Anyone interested in international trade as it affects the freight business will find this of interest:
https://youtu.be/wykaDgXoajc
It shows the size of the economy of the top 10 nations, and who they are, 1960 -2017
daveklepper Anyone interested in international trade as it affects the freight business will find this of interest: https://youtu.be/wykaDgXoajc It shows the size of the economy of the top 10 nations, and who they are, 1960 -2017
Activated. Dave just go to end of a link and hit space bar once and that will activate
That's very fascinating David. The Part 2: projections, however are nonsense. World events could turn on a dime and everything is out the window. It is not a linear thing. No one in 1899/1900 as we entered a new century would have thought WWI and WWII were looming. They really thought science would overcome all disease and poverty and war was on the extinction list. Industrial slaughter was not on the list of projections.
Mankind, or as our shiny pony Prime Minister says, "peoplekind" has no idea whatsoever what is in store for them. One invention can turn everything upside down.
I believe Western Europe including Great Britain will go into severe decline. Eastern Europe will rise dramatically and solidly.
We here in Canada better get back to the business of being haulers of water and hewers of wood i.e. We are blessed with natural resources of every kind in so much abundance it's ridiculous, and get away from this service economy stuff..,that's the USA's game. Alberta has already been reduced to the economy of Chad with all this nonsense.
Who would have thought in the 2005 - 2009 timeframe that the US would be #1 in oil production.
I agree with the two previous posts. The website is valuable for looking at history, but its projections to the future are just one of many possibilities.
Yes, I would not put any value on predictions of future economic conditions that compare the performance of national economies. But I do believe that the world experience with Chinese manufacturing is having an unanticipated, secondary effect besides just taking jobs out of more developed countries.
Not only is Chinese manufacturing meeting market demand for lower prices, but there is an added effect of actually changing the consumer market to ignore the lower quality that tends to accompany the lower prices.
So China is changing the market for all products including the ones not made in China. This change in the market forces non-Chinese manufacturers to lower their prices along with their quality. And it teaches the non-Chinese manufacturers that people will tolerate dropping quality. This effect his huge compared to the simple job displacement caused by Chinese manufacturing.
From my perspective, I see a cascading landslide of dropping product quality. It is changing the whole paradigm of retail merchandising of goods and service in a way that discounts the reaction of the customer. This is a manufacturing culture that feels no need to respect the customer.
The net result is an advanced society that suddenly decides to lower its standard of living.
Euclid Yes, I would not put any value on predictions of future economic conditions that compare the performance of national economies. But I do believe that the world experience with Chinese manufacturing is having an unanticipated, secondary effect besides just taking jobs out of more developed countries. Not only is Chinese manufacturing meeting market demand for lower prices, but there is an added effect of actually changing the consumer market to ignore the lower quality that tends to accompany the lower prices. So China is changing the market for all products including the ones not made in China. This change in the market forces non-Chinese manufacturers to lower their prices along with their quality. And it teaches the non-Chinese manufacturers that people will tolerate dropping quality. This effect his huge compared to the simple job displacement caused by Chinese manufacturing. From my perspective, I see a cascading landslide of dropping product quality. It is changing the whole paradigm of retail merchandising of goods and service in a way that discounts the reaction of the customer. This is a manufacturing culture that feels no need to respect the customer. The net result is an advanced society that suddenly decides to lower its standard of living.
Curiously, fifty years ago that same essay could have been written using "Japan" instead of "China."
Just sayin'
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
tree68 Euclid Yes, I would not put any value on predictions of future economic conditions that compare the performance of national economies. But I do believe that the world experience with Chinese manufacturing is having an unanticipated, secondary effect besides just taking jobs out of more developed countries. Not only is Chinese manufacturing meeting market demand for lower prices, but there is an added effect of actually changing the consumer market to ignore the lower quality that tends to accompany the lower prices. So China is changing the market for all products including the ones not made in China. This change in the market forces non-Chinese manufacturers to lower their prices along with their quality. And it teaches the non-Chinese manufacturers that people will tolerate dropping quality. This effect his huge compared to the simple job displacement caused by Chinese manufacturing. From my perspective, I see a cascading landslide of dropping product quality. It is changing the whole paradigm of retail merchandising of goods and service in a way that discounts the reaction of the customer. This is a manufacturing culture that feels no need to respect the customer. The net result is an advanced society that suddenly decides to lower its standard of living. Curiously, fifty years ago that same essay could have been written using "Japan" instead of "China." Just sayin'
Not fifty - more like 30. Japan was going to own everything in the USA worth owning - then they ran into their own financial difficulties. Houses of financial cards have a way of collapseing in very short time periods.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
tree68Curiously, fifty years ago that same essay could have been written using "Japan" instead of "China." Just sayin'
I don't believe Japan changed the U.S. market expectations the way Chinese manufacturing is doing. I regard that change in the market to accept lower quality as being the key point. The key point is not the lower quality of Chinese goods per se. The changing of the U.S. market due to the influence of Chinese manufacturing quality is changing U.S. manufacturers. That is the key point.
One major difference between Japan and China is the Chinese Army is significantly involved in in manufacturing in China and there is no counterpart in Japan. Another is the presence of Chinesse companies throughout the 3rd world and their ability to get concessions for these companies, both in negotiations and using bribery, to get a status no one else can. [The Chinese also have involved military personnel operating as "civilians" in these 3rd world locations.] Basically, China considers economic activity as part of its overall military policy and ambitions while Japan is typically operating from a business standpoint.
I think your perspective is very distorted or else you are looking at 15 years ago. Where do you think most Apple products are made? Did you ever look at a Huawei phone? The quality matches or exceeds most other brands.The same is true of many other products. Chinese engineering and hi-tech is very competitive.
charlie hebdo Euclid The net result is an advanced society that suddenly decides to lower its standard of living.
Euclid The net result is an advanced society that suddenly decides to lower its standard of living.
I don't think society ever voluntarily lowers it's standard of living. In the US the only time the standard of living has been constrained was the rationing and other restrictions from WW II and as soon as the War was over those measures were repealed. Without the war those measures would never have been implemented - and in all the following conflicts the US has been involved in those measures have never been reinstalled.
During the Viet Nam era a lot of talk was about if the US could afford both guns and butter - it did and the question has never been asked again.
BaltACD charlie hebdo Euclid The net result is an advanced society that suddenly decides to lower its standard of living. I don't think society ever voluntarily lowers it's standard of living.
I don't think society ever voluntarily lowers it's standard of living.
They might lower it unwittingly. My point is that the U.S. consumer market has always demanded quality, and the manufactuers competed to provide the highest quality. Then the surge of Chinese production came at a lower cost and a lower quality. Some U.S. manufacturers did not want to move production to China and lower their quality and price. They believed that the U.S. consumers still demanded high quality even if the price were higher.
But the experience with Chinese product convinced U.S. consumers that the lower prices were the way to go, even if it meant a little less quality. That is the paradigm shift. It is not the influx of goods from China. It is the U.S. consumer reaction to the influx.
So when the U.S. consumers changed their minds, they became a different market. This market change forces U.S. producers to lower their cost and quality even if they don't want to move production to China. So, now U.S. consumers are losing the freedom to choose price and quality because the market is changing to Chinese goods at lower cost and quality --or-- U.S. manufactured goods at lower cost and quality.
EuclidMy point is that the U.S. consumer market has always demanded quality...
Whoa there -- step away from the rhetoric and look at that statement carefully for a moment. Then consider the very long history of price-shaving and lower-quality alternatives in American commerce, in particular the great age of 'chain stores' in the early 20th Century.
Before the Japanese adopted Edwards Deming, their production was almost a watchword for shoddy cheapness and expedient production shortcuts -- yet there was a market for that stuff. One of the great reasons for the developed balance-of-trade imbalance with China is their willingness to provide 'good enough' alternatives with vastly lower first cost, as so tellingly leveraged by operations like Wal-Mart, that stuck a pin in many aspects of 'high profit for lousy actual value' American production. Look at what was available in electronics like console radios or TVs in the Fifties, or the circuits that served as drivers for Panelescent lighting in Chryslers, or pre-Asian visegrip or channel-lok pliers. This is different from (intentionally not capitalized).
There is a certain minimum quality, yes ... we're no longer a nation that tolerates wooden hams or nutmegs, or melamine adulteration of pet food for a more recent example. But we are assuredly a nation cultivated to look for the low price, and make decisions based on that rather than build quality in an amazing range of practical contexts. And that long precedes anything the Chinese did to foster the idea.
When I see or hear "quality" mentioned, I think of quality fence boards--which are not high quality. but the lowest that I know of. Quality boards can have loose knots, knotholes, any kind of warp, and definite amounts of wane. #2 and better grade may have tight knots and no knotholes, no warp of any kind, and all the corners along the sides are square (a little wane, but not much, is permissible).
Johnny
Overmod Euclid My point is that the U.S. consumer market has always demanded quality... Whoa there -- step away from the rhetoric and look at that statement carefully for a moment. Then consider the very long history of price-shaving and lower-quality alternatives in American commerce, in particular the great age of 'chain stores' in the early 20th Century. There is a certain minimum quality, yes ... But we are assuredly a nation cultivated to look for the low price, and make decisions based on that rather than build quality in an amazing range of practical contexts. And that long precedes anything the Chinese did to foster the idea.
Euclid My point is that the U.S. consumer market has always demanded quality...
There is a certain minimum quality, yes ...
But we are assuredly a nation cultivated to look for the low price, and make decisions based on that rather than build quality in an amazing range of practical contexts. And that long precedes anything the Chinese did to foster the idea.
All consumers want the lowest price and the highest quality. I have not said otherwise. But, it is not clear where the acceptable quality threshold is. What is clear is that consumers will not accept a reduction of quality it they feel that the reduced quality is too low. How consumers feel about that varies. Some consumers will accept any quality as long as it comes at the lowest price. Other consumers only want the best and they are willing to pay the price for it. To a large extent, it depends on the wealth of the consumer.
My only point is that consumers are losing that choice. Soon there won’t be any high quality because Chinese manufacturers and U.S. manufacturers will both be producing the lowest quality as they inculcate that preference into the U.S. market.
A manufacture knows that a reduction in quality will yield greater return if the consumer accepts the reduction in quality or doesn’t notice it. But a manufacture runs a risk in reducing quality because consumers may abandon the manufacturer’s product and look for a substitute.
All I am saying is that the inundation of the U.S. markets with much lower quality products from China is proving to U.S. manufacturers how low of quality the U.S. consumers will tolerate. This is taking away the risk for U.S. manufacturers to lower their quality to test the market’s tolerance to the lower quality. China is testing it for them. It is just Econ 101. For U.S. manufacturers, China is their canary in the coal mine, so to speak.
There are those of us out here that still will pay for quality products. My husband who does all our family's cooking insisted on high quality cookware and knives for his use. His knife set alone cost more than his kitchen aid stand mixer. He showed me that spending a couple more bucks now can save us hundreds later. He insisted on a speed queen brand dryer a couple years ago. I instead went with the LG I wanted. Guess what I had to replace last year with the speed queen he wanted my 1000 dollar LG that shredded the motor and drum bearings 3 times in 2 years. His speed queen since we've owned it hasn't so much as popped the door open in a cycle.
Shadow the Cats owner There are those of us out here that still will pay for quality products. My husband who does all our family's cooking insisted on high quality cookware and knives for his use. His knife set alone cost more than his kitchen aid stand mixer. He showed me that spending a couple more bucks now can save us hundreds later. He insisted on a speed queen brand dryer a couple years ago. I instead went with the LG I wanted. Guess what I had to replace last year with the speed queen he wanted my 1000 dollar LG that shredded the motor and drum bearings 3 times in 2 years. His speed queen since we've owned it hasn't so much as popped the door open in a cycle.
I guess it depends on how one defines quality. Speed Queens washers are durable, yes, requiring little repair work but at a much higher price, often double other brands. Reliability was high, second to LG. However, the performance is substandard and even unacceptable, according to Conumer Union's reviews: for poor cleaning (which is sort of the point of a washing machine), being hard on clothes and being very noisy they are downgraded. I didn't see a dryer review.
daveklepper I agree with the two previous posts. The website is valuable for looking at history, but its projections to the future are just one of many possibilities.
We have a pro-China lobby in this country that is apparently cheering for them because the previous prediction when they started the rapid growth was they would overtake the United States in 2020. They have since extended it to 2030, a few years of above 3% Growth compounded in the United States....and it will be extended again to 2040 at which point demographic expansion will halt in China and it's population will start to decline. Truth is that China may never overtake us Economically. But agree with what others have said anything can happen between now and then. Currently China has a problem with innovation due to it's governmental system stifling innovation. China would and could grow a LOT faster if they dumped the Communist Party and became a true democracy. That will not happen anytime soon either as memories of the Cultural Revolution will take more time to fade. That part of their history is getting them to cling to Communism as a security blanket.
I feel the same way as your husband does. I can't stand the lousy quality creeping into everything these days. I will go into a hardware store to buy a widget, and if they two of them at two different prices, and I can't tell which one is better quality, I always take the one that is highest price. It is not that I have money to burn. I just feel that quality is in free fall. That is my point.
If I want to buy plumbing fittings, I sort through the bin to pick out the good ones because they are not all the same anymore. Different manufacturers and different production runs are mixed together and they are all snapshots samplings of the plummeting quality. Don't expect all of the 3/4" copper tees to be the same.
charlie hebdoChinese engineering and hi-tech is very competitive.
Your a victim of our superficial news media....
A few examples maybe but overwhealmingly untrue. Most of what they make is pure crap even today. Suggest you watch and listen to folks that live there from the West and speak fluent Chinese (see below). The Chinese steal a lot technologically and it is tough to determine what they stole from what they innovated. Generally, I suspect most of what you see that impresses you has been stolen.
Good youtube channel with comparisons of life in China vs the United States. You want to zoom in on the Ghost Cities episodes where they cover 47 brand new but still vacant apartments in China. Or the episode on building quality on how Chinese buildings collapse while relatively still new or otherwise fall apart. How crappy Chinese made cars are that these two had to drive. How crappy their motorcycles are over there, etc. etc.
https://www.youtube.com/user/churchillcustoms
Episodes on Chinese Building engineering (this shocked even me):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopSDJq6w8E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9eXi3RL8q4
CMStPnP charlie hebdo Chinese engineering and hi-tech is very competitive. Your a victim of our superficial news media.... A few examples maybe but overwhealmingly untrue. Most of what they make is pure crap even today. Suggest you watch and listen to folks that live there from the West and speak fluent Chinese (see below). The Chinese steal a lot technologically and it is tough to determine what they stole from what they innovated. Generally, I suspect most of what you see that impresses you has been stolen. Good youtube channel with comparisons of life in China vs the United States. You want to zoom in on the Ghost Cities episodes where they cover 47 brand new but still vacant apartments in China. Or the episode on building quality on how Chinese buildings collapse while relatively still new or otherwise fall apart. How crappy Chinese made cars are that these two had to drive. How crappy their motorcycles are over there, etc. etc. https://www.youtube.com/user/churchillcustoms Episodes on Chinese Building engineering (this shocked even me): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopSDJq6w8E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9eXi3RL8q4
charlie hebdo Chinese engineering and hi-tech is very competitive.
Your condescending tone is once again misplaced, in this case since you have no idea of my sources.
Onshoring by manufacturers to bring back production to the US is happening because of rising wages in China, poor quality, transportation costs, automation, and even the low price of natural gas in the US. Its not a tidal wave back, but China may be peaking.
Midland Mike-- I like that analysis. You got something there!
MidlandMike Onshoring by manufacturers to bring back production to the US is happening because of rising wages in China, poor quality, transportation costs, automation, and even the low price of natural gas in the US. Its not a tidal wave back, but China may be peaking.
I can see that possibility, and it would be a boost for the U.S. manuacturing and jobs, but I don't see the quality coming back with the return of manufacturing. That horse has left the barn.
Chinese products flooding the U.S. market has acclimated it to accept the lowest standard of quality in the U.S. market history. So returning U.S. manufacturing will surely take advanatage of that new low quality standard.
Although it is possible that there will be a backlash to this obvious shortcoming which will fill the vacuum of a pent up demand for the highest quality and product perfection imaginable. That would be a nice outcome.
MidlandMikeOnshoring by manufacturers to bring back production to the US is happening because of rising wages in China, poor quality, transportation costs, automation, and even the low price of natural gas in the US. Its not a tidal wave back, but China may be peaking.
I see that as well. You also had the Communist Party admit openly and publicly in discussions that China has an innvoation problem and cannot compete with the west in innovation, patents, or forging new paths. It is not a secret to the Chinese Communist Party, though I had to snicker when reading the comments that they couldn't figure out the problem was themselves and their inability to encourage innovation because they were too fearful of losing power. Instead of loosing their grip they are tightening their grip. In fact, watching the AVGChina Youtube videos. It has become apparent to them as they are advising folks that China is no longer really open to foriegners and that increasingly as they see more and more Communist Party signs go up they are subjects of racial and ethnic hatred and feel their days of being in China are numbered even though they are married to Chinese wives (sad). Appears they are moving in the wrong direction of where they should be moving (loosening their grip on power).
BTW, similar is happening slowly with outsourcing of Information Technology to India. Some larger companies are starting to realize some of it was a mistake because the Indians are not experienced enough to build an IT system that is maintainable within standards and so many systems that have been outsourced to India have imploded due to speghetti code and no real logical organization.
Some large Indian firms like TATA Consulting (TCS) and InfoSys are being sued right now via former employees due to their abuse of the H1b VISA program. Quite a turnaround from the post Y2K world. The unfairness has been going on for 17 years almost. So I am curious being in IT how much this trend reverses itself or if the Indian Companies are able to bribe their way out of this one just as they bribed their way out of strict H1b enforcement by Congress. Time will tell.
EuclidNot only is Chinese manufacturing meeting market demand for lower prices, but there is an added effect of actually changing the consumer market to ignore the lower quality that tends to accompany the lower prices.
Euclid,
There is a lot of truth towhat you say. America's love affair with "bottom dollar" thinking has changed the way consumer's think in many aspects.
Rather than buying a quality widget, many will buy thbe cheapest widget they can find, and gladly buy another hunk of junk replacement in two years when the first one gives up the ghost.
Many Americans have developed a "disposable" mentality to items that previously were treasured and passed from generation to generation.
But China-junk is just one aspect of their product.
If you buy the cheapest Chinese manufactured widget you can find, you're goin g to get the bottom end product.
Products manufactured in China for mid to high quality and pricepoints, can be very satisfatory products.
Just as a quick compare, the Hundred dollar bicycles you buy at Walmart, are truly piles of junk. Screws and fittings that continually work lose, frames that crack and distort...etc etc
But, go to a cycle shop and look at some of the bicycles made in China in the $500.00-$800.00 range.....and they have some very nice stuff.
So, I don't think it's accurate to blame the low quality of thelow end merchandise on "Chinese incompetance"
They are just building to what the market demand is.......
I'm riding a 9 year old Electra Townie that has held up every bit as good as those old American made Schwinns that I grew up with
What you're seeing, is that (most) "low end" items cannot be manufactured in the USA and cover labor costs and other fixed and variable costs at the level common to these shores, and still turn a profit. So items targeting the low end are made where there is no USA standard of living to support.
Years ago, if your parents couldn't afford to buy you a Schwinn, you got a Huffy.
It's a different world now.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.