CP at it's Investor Day talks about CP post EHH. But that's not what caught my eye. It's the editor's note at the end of the article.
https://www.railwayage.com/freight/cowen-on-cp-no-skepticism-in-a-post-hunter-world/
Jeff
Yeah thats pretty much a BIG DEAL!
Editor’s Note: This of course is speculation, but we believe something major is in the works that will eventually result in two east-west North American transcontinental Class I railroads. Based on current route structures and combinations that will result in minimal overlap, we see CP+UP+CSX and CN + BNSF +Norfolk Southern as potential combinations, with north-south Kansas City Southern, including KCS de México, as the “wild card.” “Potential regulatory issues” may not be as large a factor, given the current Administration’s push toward less-stringent regulations. The upcoming mid-term elections, and whether they affect the current balance of power on Capitol Hill, may be a factor in any merger activities. Perhaps the late Hunter Harrison’s vision of transcontinental railroads will be realized posthumously. 2019—when Union Pacific will celebrate the 150th anniversary of the driving of the Golden Spike at Promontory Summit, Utah, and completion of the first transcontinental railroad—may be a milestone year for the industry. Undoubtedly, Hunter would be very happy seeing Keith Creel as CEO of a transcontinental Class I, which is well within the realm of possibility.— William C. Vantuono
jeffhergert It's the editor's note at the end of the article.
Well, "those" are the combinations I've always anticipated. It would be interesting to see if organizations structured as such would at long last do something tangible about bypassing Chicago.
Miningman Hunter would be very happy seeing Keith Creel as CEO of a transcontinental Class I,
Personally, this is what I suspected EHH intended to do when he went to CSX in the first place.
I just have this feeling that there's something in the offing but if CPRS does indeed make a move, I've always felt and I still believe it will be with its natural merger partner, KCS.
How will the Canadian problem of requiring company hearquarters in Canada. ?
blue streak 1 How will the Canadian problem of requiring company hearquarters in Canada. ?
Probably the same way it's been done before. Look up Grand Trunk and Central Vermont.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Alrighty, we need 2 new names. .....and colours.
Based on current route structures and combinations that will result in minimal overlap, we see CP+UP+CSX and CN + BNSF +Norfolk Southern as potential combinations,
And of all the Class 1's existing in 1950, it's the Kansas City Southern that comes away with its identity and colours. Unbelievable.
MiningmanAlrighty, we need 2 new names. .....and colours. Based on current route structures and combinations that will result in minimal overlap, we see CP+UP+CSX and CN + BNSF +Norfolk Southern as potential combinations,
CanAm and AmCan - pick which is which and color me surprised.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Balt-- Funny, I thought the exact same thing with those exact words!
blue streak 1How will the Canadian problem of requiring company hearquarters in Canada. ?
It's not only that Canadian protectionism would attempt to force a Canadian takeover. Not sure how that would work because CP doesn't have the bond or finance capacity to acquire or merge with UP, nevermind that CSX would not be a fit with UP as much as NS would be (from a financial health perspective). At this point I would be surprised if CN really wanted CSX. Maybe CSX will end up with KCS as a merger partner. Right now KCS has too much debt to interest anyone else.
One reason Berkshire Hathaway picked BNSF was it could afford a full buyout of BNSF stock, it could not do the same with UP as UP was too large at the time. If anything UP would insist on it being the top dog in any merger and also keeping the Corporate name........causing a political issue in Canada's Parliament among the protectionists there.
As for CN, it is financially stronger than CP so it might strike a deal with NS at some point and it could afford a merger with NS. If BNSF wanted in or not is another matter. BNSF is almost transcontinental by itself as it has track into central Alabama from the FRISCO merger, I thought. Would not be unheard of for BNSF to buy some lines from CSX to the East Coast. I can't see BNSF merging with CSX though.
I could even see CP and CN picking apart CSX between themselves and letting. NS merge with UP.
So it reads like a nice dream but I will believe it when I see it.
Convicted One Miningman Hunter would be very happy seeing Keith Creel as CEO of a transcontinental Class I, Personally, this is what I suspected EHH intended to do when he went to CSX in the first place.
For a paltry $20 million, that goal could have been realized through the purchase of the former MMA. This would have rendered CP a coast to coast transcontinental operation once again.. A golden opportunity.. missed..
Railroads work very well together now.. they share infrastructure, locomotives, and rolling stock... thus there's less incentive to merge than in the past. Mergers would also reduce operational fluidity.. i.e. now (for example) NS can partner with UP or BNSF on various moves.. a merger with one or the other would make it more difficult to partner with a competitor. The best of both worlds is pretty much what we have now: class 1s who compete with one another on some business and collaborate on other business.. and share resources for mutual beneficial gain.
Except, perhaps, that Halifax isn't quite the major Atlantic port that they're trying to reach.
Well it could still be done with the added benefit of all that very expensive new track around Lac-Meganatic that the Provincial and Federal Governments are paying for.
I nominate Canadian Southern and Seaboard Pacific for names.
The requirement for the headquarters to remain in Canada only applies to CN, and was a condition of the 1995 privatization. CP has no such requirement.
I have no idea how that law would affect a potential merger involving CN, but when the CN-BNSF merger was proposed the combined company would have been headquartered in Montreal.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
CSSHEGEWISCH Except, perhaps, that Halifax isn't quite the major Atlantic port that they're trying to reach.
That would be Saint John, not Halifax.. but point taken.
Montreal, Toronto, Topeka and Western..
CN may be odd man out and will do quite nicely on it’s own, thank you.
It has a unique niche as a north-south route in the US and “owns” Canada.
Maybe they pick up a route from Detroit and Buffalo down to Atlanta to reach more of the south as a condition of an East-West merger, and KCS to access the massive Texas markets and Mexico, and also get access from Meridian to Atlanta.
My guess - just a guess - is Mr. Creel is looking to succeed Mr. Fritz in Omaha when Mr. Fritz retires.
I've always heard, even before I hired out, that when the last round of mergers happened, UP would go with CSX. From a regulatory angle, there probably won't be a better time. There's been speculation before of the last round starting, speculation from within the industry that is. Railfans are always speculating just from seeing one railroad's engines on another railroad.
While I wouldn't be too surprised should something develope, I don't think UP senior management is thinking about that now. They are too busy trying to save their own jobs. Doing what Wall Street wants before someone or group comes in and does a regime change.
If we should get to two major railroads, They could be called "Us" and "Them" or "We" and "They." It worked for Bugs Bunny and Yosemite Sam. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frn_LiljdQ0
jeffhergertI've always heard, even before I hired out, that when the last round of mergers happened, UP would go with CSX.
That surprises me because that is probably the worst choice of all the railroads remaining. I would think NS would be a better choice, especially with the T&P routing via the Merdian Gateway (over KCS).........that would beat the pants off any Southern CSX line that is remaining. Though the SP choice surprised me as well as SP wasn't exactly a financial powerhouse at the time.
Though I would not discount UP & KCS due to the Mexican Railway option and ever increasing U.S. Mexico trade..........would put UP in a really traffic dominant position, so much so that it might not be approved.
CMStPnP jeffhergert I've always heard, even before I hired out, that when the last round of mergers happened, UP would go with CSX. That surprises me because that is probably the worst choice of all the railroads remaining. I would think NS would be a better choice, especially with the T&P routing via the Merdian Gateway (over KCS).........that would beat the pants off any Southern CSX line that is remaining. Though the SP choice surprised me as well as SP wasn't exactly a financial powerhouse at the time. Though I would not discount UP & KCS due to the Mexican Railway option and ever increasing U.S. Mexico trade..........would put UP in a really traffic dominant position, so much so that it might not be approved.
jeffhergert I've always heard, even before I hired out, that when the last round of mergers happened, UP would go with CSX.
I've been hearing UP from the day CSX was formed. Over the years a number of officers have jumped back an forth between the two companies.
North America Railway ( system) NAR- that would make the Dude ecstatic and I know he has a colour scheme and logo in mind.
The other one, well can't use A&P so I'll go with P&A, the Pacific and Atlantic Railroad ...PAR...lots of things you can do with that.
Sorry, but PAR is already taken with Pan Am Railways in New England.
I don't think there can be any question what one of the combined entities would be called....UP, the mighty usurper.
For the other, I'm pretty fond of Norfolk & Western...with a swoosh mark, of course.
I doubt that such combined entities would be any more hostile towards one another than they are now, there would be captive shippers and recievers on both sides of the fence, so there would remain some motivation for cooperation. Perhaps even more so than at present because you would have very limited alternatives.
Miningman North America Railway ( system) NAR- that would make the Dude ecstatic and I know he has a colour scheme and logo in mind.
That's actually what CN and BNSF were going to name the combined company had their merger taken place.
No idea what paint scheme they were planning to use.
Someone else owns the "NAR" reporting mark now, I've started seeing it on some new tank cars in the past few years.
Dude-- I didn't know that was the name considered for a BNSF/CN. As to the current NAR will heck just absorb 'em. Grey, blue, black and orange striping would look pretty nifty, a whole new look and steal away the CSX thunder on the other side.
CSSHEGEWISCH -- Dang! Well buy 'em out.
Pacific, Great Lakes & Eastern (copyright 2018)
- PDN.
How about naming them Leviathan I & II?
Would rather see them broken up into several railroads that each penetrate their broader market potential.
But that's just me.
The corporate tax rate in Canada is at 26.5%.
The corporate tax rate in the US is 21%.
If we have any transcontinental systems in the US it will be the Big Four becoming the Big Two with maybe CP divided up as CP Shared Assets to ensure the Big Two have access to Canadian grain, the Alberta tar sands, and the Port Of Vancouver to export PRB coal.
CN will do just fine and will get access to Atlanta and Texas.
Paul_D_North_Jr Pacific, Great Lakes & Eastern (copyright 2018) - PDN.
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
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