Uncle_Bob With Harrison's death, who knows what CSX will do about line sales, or anything else. Hopefully they'll make wise decisions about what to keep and what to shed.
With Harrison's death, who knows what CSX will do about line sales, or anything else. Hopefully they'll make wise decisions about what to keep and what to shed.
I was suprised to see two AC4400CW's leading a train west from Hanover, Pa yesterday. As I stated in an earlier post the usual power are SD50's, so those were a real treat to see.
Chuck
That remains to be seen.
Norm
Norm48327 BaltACD Who says they aren't 'earning their keep' today. As long as a line makes enough to pay for it's expenses there is no real rush to sell it. CSX divested and/or abandoned all the lines that couldn't pay for themselves long ago. There may be lines on the CSX that are not 'big earners'; but from what I witnessed in the 36 years that CSX was on my paycheck they didn't keep lines that lost money. The best response I can offer is based on what information my CSX and CN signal maintainer friends have confided in me. Of course in business rumors fly at the speed of sound while factual information plods along at a snail's pace. All those I know have been concerned for some years they may have been forced to move to retain their employment with CSX or Cn or be forced to take employment with a short line or a contractor should they choose to stay where they are. I have been told short lines in Michigan favor contracting out signal and track maintenance and have met a few guys who were previously rails and now working under totally different circumstances and no longer covered under the terms of the RRB. Would you be concerned regarding their future given they planned on receiving RRB benefits and suddenly found themselves shuffled off to another program that left them in the lurch financially? Had I worked for forty years expecting RRB benefits and suddenly be told I would be livid as I suspect you would. IMO, that change indicates loyal employees mean nothing to management. They are simply disposable pawns who management decrees sacrificial in the quest to capture the king. It's one big and stinky game of financial and political chess. My track foreman hit the jackpot and retired in good stead after 42 years of service. Others may, given today's penchant for reducing expenses to benefit investors may not be so fortunate.
BaltACD Who says they aren't 'earning their keep' today. As long as a line makes enough to pay for it's expenses there is no real rush to sell it. CSX divested and/or abandoned all the lines that couldn't pay for themselves long ago. There may be lines on the CSX that are not 'big earners'; but from what I witnessed in the 36 years that CSX was on my paycheck they didn't keep lines that lost money.
The best response I can offer is based on what information my CSX and CN signal maintainer friends have confided in me. Of course in business rumors fly at the speed of sound while factual information plods along at a snail's pace. All those I know have been concerned for some years they may have been forced to move to retain their employment with CSX or Cn or be forced to take employment with a short line or a contractor should they choose to stay where they are.
I have been told short lines in Michigan favor contracting out signal and track maintenance and have met a few guys who were previously rails and now working under totally different circumstances and no longer covered under the terms of the RRB.
Would you be concerned regarding their future given they planned on receiving RRB benefits and suddenly found themselves shuffled off to another program that left them in the lurch financially? Had I worked for forty years expecting RRB benefits and suddenly be told I would be livid as I suspect you would.
IMO, that change indicates loyal employees mean nothing to management. They are simply disposable pawns who management decrees sacrificial in the quest to capture the king.
It's one big and stinky game of financial and political chess.
My track foreman hit the jackpot and retired in good stead after 42 years of service. Others may, given today's penchant for reducing expenses to benefit investors may not be so fortunate.
Hate to say it but the Michigan lines have been dangled for the past 30 years. Small segments have been leased and/or sold - but not at fire sale prices.
I fully understand the less than settled feelings of CSX employees in all crafts in Michigan. Will they stay employed long enough to collect RRB benefits or will political machinations try to STEAL those benefits from them and ME!
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACDWho says they aren't 'earning their keep' today. As long as a line makes enough to pay for it's expenses there is no real rush to sell it. CSX divested and/or abandoned all the lines that couldn't pay for themselves long ago. There may be lines on the CSX that are not 'big earners'; but from what I witnessed in the 36 years that CSX was on my paycheck they didn't keep lines that lost money.
Norm48327 BaltACD One thing to remember when speculating about line sales. EHH will not let anything go at fire sale prices. Anything sold will be done at above market value. But what will Harrison do if he has no takers at inflated prices? Most of CSX's lines in Michigan are running low on traffic and with the exception of the line to Detroit have precious few customers. The Saginaw Sub north of Flint has already become a short line (not sure if it was sold or leased). The Grand Rapids sub still has coal and Amtrak but it, too, is short of customers along the line. The Plymouth sub, Plymouth to Grand Rapids is also pretty much devoid of meaningful traffic. Could the Michigan lines CSX would like to shed be profitable under shortlines? There are some possibilities but it would take some experienced marketing folks and quality service to make them so. Holding out for high dollar may not be Harrison's best plan.
BaltACD One thing to remember when speculating about line sales. EHH will not let anything go at fire sale prices. Anything sold will be done at above market value.
One thing to remember when speculating about line sales.
EHH will not let anything go at fire sale prices.
Anything sold will be done at above market value.
But what will Harrison do if he has no takers at inflated prices? Most of CSX's lines in Michigan are running low on traffic and with the exception of the line to Detroit have precious few customers. The Saginaw Sub north of Flint has already become a short line (not sure if it was sold or leased). The Grand Rapids sub still has coal and Amtrak but it, too, is short of customers along the line. The Plymouth sub, Plymouth to Grand Rapids is also pretty much devoid of meaningful traffic.
Could the Michigan lines CSX would like to shed be profitable under shortlines? There are some possibilities but it would take some experienced marketing folks and quality service to make them so. Holding out for high dollar may not be Harrison's best plan.
Who says they aren't 'earning their keep' today. As long as a line makes enough to pay for it's expenses there is no real rush to sell it. CSX divested and/or abandoned all the lines that couldn't pay for themselves long ago. There may be lines on the CSX that are not 'big earners'; but from what I witnessed in the 36 years that CSX was on my paycheck they didn't keep lines that lost money.
Since this is one site where one can speculate to ones heart content, allow me to share some thoughts, whether or not they are in left field. Some possible line/property sales could be as follows:
1. The Hudson valley line from poughkeepsie to Hoffmans currently leased to, I believe, Amtrak is sold to them.
2. The CSX owned ex C&O trackage in Virginia currently leased to BBRR sold to VA DRPT and continued lease to the current tenant.
3. The S line from AM junction just north of RVM all the way to Boyan wye in Raleigh to VA and NC for the SEHSR. Maybe this could breathe new life into the S line south of Raleigh, if that line isn't on the list to be spun off.
I live outside of Gettysburg, and sometines I will se long trains with up to 5 SD50;s, or at little as 2. Mostly mixed freight , but a lot of covered hoppers are on the trains. SD50's seem to be the norm for power, but occasionally a B-B unit or a road slug will bin in the mix depending on the trailing tonnage.
Like Balt ACD still waiting to see what Harrison intends to do with the lines in Michigan. They are out of the triangle Harrison wishes to develop and in his mind should be spun off to short lines. I know CSX personnel in Michigan who are concerned about this.
sps If I was EHH I would spin lines off to an LLC short line conglomerate much like the INRD is now, wholly owned by CSXT. This would allow different operating requirements, rules and expectations without affecting the parent companies standing on/with Wall Street and the new conglomerate would not be publicly traded. In essence make two out of one. All the gymnastics of valuation, bidding, negotiations are avoided. Put all the wood from the trunk of the tree in one pile and the wood from the branches in another. You still own all the wood.
If I was EHH I would spin lines off to an LLC short line conglomerate much like the INRD is now, wholly owned by CSXT. This would allow different operating requirements, rules and expectations without affecting the parent companies standing on/with Wall Street and the new conglomerate would not be publicly traded. In essence make two out of one. All the gymnastics of valuation, bidding, negotiations are avoided. Put all the wood from the trunk of the tree in one pile and the wood from the branches in another. You still own all the wood.
Can you say Winona Bridge??
It is rare to see a through train on that line any day of the week, especially mixed freight. Most general traffic moves from Hanover, PA west to Hagerstown and back. A daily rock runner goes south at night and the empties return to the quarry at Hanover the next afternoon. Growing up along that line I remember long manifests going west from Baltimore along with unit grain and coal trains going east. Occasionally there would be a surprise like a train load of tanks going to Ft. Holabird in Baltimore to be shipped overseas, or a rare TOFC train. THe TOFC trains mostly went up the main line through Westminster where Maryland Midland runs now.
acmatth Maybe the old Western Maryland "Dutch Line" from Baltimore to Hagerstown? Maryland Midland (now Genessee and Wyoming) tried to buy that line years ago. MMID connects to it on both ends so it might make sense.
Maybe the old Western Maryland "Dutch Line" from Baltimore to Hagerstown? Maryland Midland (now Genessee and Wyoming) tried to buy that line years ago. MMID connects to it on both ends so it might make sense.
On Sunday one week ago I was dining with a friend who was a former Conrail operator and a long time WM fan who related that he had heard from some railfans (just railfan rumors/speculations?) that the Dutch line was on the block for divestuture. Our meal was at a country B & B that abutts the Dutch line and, to add a touch of emphasis, a train rumbled past, something I had never seen before and any of our previous Sunday feasts. He was surprised since he had believed that there were no scheduled trains on Sundays. I was able to get a tiny glimpse of the westbound movement which consisted of mixed freight, and seemed a decent size for a local (which I assumed it was).
My guesses for Ohio:
Branchlines from Sterling on the old B&O main to Lorain and Cleveland;
Branchline from the Ohio River through Marrieta to Relief;
Mainline from Galion to Columbus;
Mainline from Toledo to Kenton; and l
Longer term if service changes are made the mainline from Cincinnati to St. Louis. Get your bids in soon.
Over and out,
Lou
I'm sure N.S. will have something to say about N.J., since it owns half of Conrail Shared Assets.
Should be a valuable line, if not for CSX.
I was also thinking that New Orleans- Mongomery- Jacksonville would be a pretty good line for someone...
CShaveRR Despite the fact that Michigan has its own budgetary woes, it's been pretty active in maintaining a passenger rail network. Perhaps CSX can give the state a good price for its line from Grand Rapids to somewhere in the Detroit area, and offer a passenger schedule to connect Detroit (or Plymouth) to GR via Lansing.
Despite the fact that Michigan has its own budgetary woes, it's been pretty active in maintaining a passenger rail network. Perhaps CSX can give the state a good price for its line from Grand Rapids to somewhere in the Detroit area, and offer a passenger schedule to connect Detroit (or Plymouth) to GR via Lansing.
Our State hasn't had any "budget woes". We're not drowning in debt, like some other states. Instead, we play a giant game of tug-of-war over what to spend our money on. You know, the way it should be. Lesser men choose to not choose and spend all of the money, instead of battling over how to divide up what we have. I've been pleased to be a citizen of Michigan, and I think by and large there is enough compromise and balance that everybody gets some of what they want.
That being said, while I have no on-the-job experience with the CSX lines in Michigan, I have spent many years studying them and so here are my thoughts about the whole question of CSX trimmings in Michigan.
For those unaware, first off, some exposition. The current CSX is Michigan is a distillation of the old Pere Marquette, altough much shrunken via the C&O, Chessie and more recently CSX. What's left is the Flint-Plymouth-Toldeo main, and the Porter, IN-Grand Rapids-Plymouth-Detroit main. There is a short branch in Grand Rapids used to access several shortlines, and they also own the PH&D out of Port Huron, accessed from Flint via trackage rights with the CN.
The last round of sell-offs was around 2005, when CSX sold the branch to Muskegon from West Olive (near Holland) to RailAmerica's Michigan Shore. They also sold-off/leased out the branches north of Grand Rapids to Marquette Rail. These two are both G&W properties now, and interchange exclusively with CSX at Holland and Grand Rapids, respectively. Also in 2005, CSX sold their way out of Saginaw, giving everything north of McGrew Yard in Flint to the LSRC, leaving us with the present arrangement.
CSX's operations are concentrated mostly in the Detroit area, of course with their share of the CRSA and the manufacrutring base. Many trains operate from Detroit via Plymouth and/or Carleton to Toldeo. This includes heavy local traffic and the auto sorting yard at New Boston. It is exceedingly unlikely, therefore, that CSX would sell of this portion of the railroad, east and south of Plymouth. It originates so much traffic, that it's price would be quite high.
Alternately, you have west of Plymouth via GR to Porter, which is moslty composed of the significant online traffic base, and the shortline interchanges with the WMI, MS, GRE, MQT, GDLK, JAIL and GLC. They also have two busy grain elevators and the power plant at West Olive, which recieves a coal train per day, average. This line segment is considered to be secondary, and rarely hosts much overhead traffic, although since EHH has been installed, has seen much more of it than in the more recent past, including most recently a bunch of Detroit intermodal traffic.
Third, you have the stuff north of Plymouth to Flint, which used to be crazy busy but now has just modest online traffic. Most of the traffic here is overhead to the interchange with the LSRC in Flint and the PH&D property.
Alright, so here are my thoughts. I see three distinct, somewhat likely scenarios I'll discuss. There are more possibilities, but I consider them pretty darn unlikely.
Scenario A: Sale of Plymouth-Flint. This one seems like the most likely of the scenarios, and wouldn't impact whether or not the others happen. The idea here is that the LSRC would purchase their way from Flint to Plymouth, moving the interchange with CSX to North Yard in Plymouth or maybe Lincoln Yard in Novi. He biggest hang-up with this is that CSX would further land-lock their PH&D property, which is a cash cow according to sources, with lucerative chemical and fuel traffic. Therefore, there is the question of whether or not the PH&D would be excluded somehow or if that would derail this effort altogether. CSX may just be happy to serve the local customers on this stretch in order to keep the PH&D, accepting the LSRC interchange at Flint. I'd personally assign the chance of this sale happening, at least of the Flint-Plymouth line, a 30% chance by 2025.
Scenario B: Sale of Porter-Plymouth. This one has been thought about for much longer than most realize. Yes, this is about Canadian Pacific. I've recieved plenty of flack for this in the past, as some just think us Michigan railfans are obsessed with CP - and maybe we are, because our line used to see 24 trains per day but now 5-6 is a good number. We want CP back. But those hopes aside, the quantitive facts are that CP, upon their exit around 2005 and again in 2010, did attempt to purchase the line, but couldn't meet CSX's price. What we know now is that Harrison's buddy is in charge at CP, so in theory the tracks are greased for a transaction compared with previously. This sale would give CP their own line from Chicagoland to Detroit. They'd avoid most of the NS, but then have to take over their own line, run it, and yes it needs some upgrades in terms of sidings and some signalling to run trains over 5-8000' in mass. So, I think the idea of this hinges more on CP's love/hate relationship with NS than it does CSX's sale price. CP has to be both willing to move and meet CSX's price. I'd also expect CSX to retain Plymouth to Detroit for themselves, so there'd have to be a trackage rights bridge on both ends of the line for CP, from Hick to Porter in Indiana, and Plymouth to Detroit in Michigan. But it cuts out the vast majority of the pesky NS. Is it worth it? I give this about a 20% chance by 2025.
Scenario C: MDOT pruchase. This one looked much much better around about 2014 than it does now. First and foremost, the Federal cash prizes are gone. MDOT used mostly federal funds to grab the Michigan Line from Kalamazoo to Dearborn from the NS, and for awhile it looked like CSX was teeing up a sale from Plymouth to GR for MDOT, or at least trying to get them to pay for line upgrades in exchange for a new DET-GRR service. Alas, with the funding gone, it is extremely unlikely, I think. The Michigan Line was a match made in heaven, since NS already had minimal online traffic, no overhead traffic, and thus no real reason to keep it around. So MDOT got their chance at a higher-speed railroad, and NS kept their freight business, which is all they really wanted. NS seemed happy with the way Porter-Kzoo was, and so now most of the rest of the old Michigan Central is setup similarly. However, MDOT is sturggling to finish the planned upgrades of that line, needing at least one more big funding push to finish it all, particularly curve upgrades from Jackson to Ypsilanti. With the MDOT Rail office busy pushing that project towards completion, and in need of cash, I doubt they're paying much attention to the CSX, at least for now. For awhile it seemed like they were gaining momentum towards a second Pere Marquette Serice to Chicago, and maybe an extension to Detroit, but those seem on hold as well, even barring a line-sale, until the new locomotives and passenger equipment becomes available. So I give the chance of MDOT buying any of CSX from GRR to DET at about 10% by 2025.
Those are my thoughts - again with no inside experience but plenty of observations in the last decade.
Well, since it’s a fire sale, BNSF from Memphis to Nashville.
I wonder if NS would be interested in the CSX line from Hagerstown, Md up through Gettysburg, PA and then down to Baltimore. Md/
They also have a yard in Hagerstown and it would allow them to not only get to Harrisburg, via Chambersburg, Pa. There already is a CSX/NS connection in Chambersburg, PA and it would give them a shorter route to Baltimore.
Carl
Railroader Emeritus (practiced railroading for 46 years--and in 2010 I finally got it right!)
CAACSCOCOM--I don't want to behave improperly, so I just won't behave at all. (SM)
BaltACD Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Indinana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, Alabama, Canada
Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Indinana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, Alabama, Canada
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
BaltACD Anything for Mantle Ridge to hoover out the money from the shell.
Anything for Mantle Ridge to hoover out the money from the shell.
Balt,
I hear what you are saying. Hedge funds are the modern day "Carl Ichan corporate raiders". Make a quick turn, grab the money, sell while stocks are high and 'git while the gittin's good'. Sell un-needed assets till the company bleeds in order to raise profit margins and cash.
Most small investors, those seeking either dividens or building their portfolio for retirement are seeking long term benefits. The other side of the equation is those who would deny/rob those small investors. Seems to be the way of life theese days.
Legal? Perhaps. Ethical? Doubtful, but the matra is now every man for himself and those who have the ability to control major corporations have the advantage.
Both my sister and I had stock in General Motors given they were a huge presence in our area and were profitable for most of our lives. When I saw them going downhill I bailed. I saved my principal and she hung on. I have no idea how much she lost by doing so.
As the Kenny Rogers song said "Know when to hold 'em know when to fold 'em. Until CSX gets theit act back together they will not get a dime of my money.
Los Angeles Rams Guysee if CSXT would be willing to part with their portion of the former PRR Chicago - New York mainline between Tolleston, Indiana and Crestline, Ohio
Perhaps now would be a good time to push a high-speed passenger rail initiative proposing one of those public/private partnerships where some rich guy gets to control the farebox, and the taxpayer gets to pay all the bills?
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