PSR Stands for Precision Scheduled Railroading

[Shadow the Cats owner]

Well with Willard yard being closed now how screwed up is CSX going to become now. They were beginning to get the kinks out not anymore. 

[Firelock76]

 

i've got some Scot in me as well, my mother's mother was from Scotland.  Sadly, she passed away long before I came along, so I never knew her.

It's probably the reason whenever I hear bagpipes I want to fall in behind!

[Deggesty]

Yes, Wayne, I well remember watching this movie many, many, years ago. To me, one of the best lines was General Jackson's response to the question as to why the Scots were playing their bagpipes--"To frighten us."

Happy to say, my Scots ancestors were already in the colonies, having come by way of Ireland, and my maternal grandfather's immediate ancestors had come down to South Carolina from Pennsylvania. Except for those, my immigrant ancestors settled in Virginia in the 17th century.

[Firelock76]

Deggesty

I don't know just where the ball struck him, but when a Redcoat shot him in December of 1814, my great-great-grandfather Lawson knew he was going to die; he was able to dictate a will to his friend who was with him.

 

Andrew Jackson got revenge for your family Johnny, and how!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqkZr9C5C64

Although every time I watch this all I can think of is "Those poor Scots!"

And I've NEVER heard anyone give the command "Commence firing!" as well as Chuck Heston!  Wow!

[Deggesty]

I don't know just where the ball struck him, but when a Redcoat shot him in December of 1814, my great-great-grandfather Lawson knew he was going to die; he was able to dictate a will to his friend who was with him.

[Firelock76]

Practical accuracy circa 1776...

If you could hit a Redcoat out to 300 yards and take him out, where you hit him wasn't important.

Kind of like the practical accuracy of today's AK-47.  As long as the bullet hits the target, the Russians don't care where it hits it.

[Overmod]

erikem

I remember the first time about being told the difference between precision and accuracy - which made sense but not too easy to remember. A bit more memorable explanation was in reference to target shooting, where precision was the size of the group of bullet holes and accuracy was the distance from the center of the group to the center of the target.

The way I learned the difference, you've left a key word out of your memorable explanation as written, which may leave some non-engineering mehums a bit confused in semantics.   Accuracy should be the distance from the center of the precise group to the center of the target.  In other words, accuracy presupposes precision.

 

I was fortunate enough to learn the difference very early, in the context of learning how to machine and then stone balance-staff pivots on my little Unimat with the (woo hoo!) watchmaker's spindle attachment which assured both precision and reproduceability with runout measured in 10-thousandths.  Precision is measuring and working within tolerances.  But those don't mean a thing if you cut a pivot, precisely and with acceptable runout and surface finish, to the wrong diameter where it is supposed to fit the hole jewel, or a staff or arbor to a length that does not give correct effective end-shake between cap jewels at the watch's 'wearing' temperature, and so forth.

 

Something I did not realize then is that 'reproduceability' is not just a direct improvement on accuracy.  Probably a subject dear to Firelock76's heart is the argument, first heard by me circa 1973 in the run-up to the historical Bicentennial celebrations, that the American shooting at long range could not be as deadly as historically implied by 'dead white historians' because the relatively low precision inherent in contemporary 'colonial' long rifles wasn't good enough to give the required quick accuracy, let alone that frontiersmen had enough powder and shot to practice 'barking squirrels' and other practices.  (Note that this is not quite the same argument used in the steam community to disprove supposedly high speed records based on practical physics -- nothing inherently forbids a man from good accuracy with a weapon familiar to him... that he has 'learned on' to help feed his family)

 

[erikem]

Since PSA was rumored to stand for "Poor Sailor's Airline", PSR should mean "Poor Sailor's Railroad".

I remember the first time about being told the difference between precision and accuracy - which made sense but not too easy to remember. A bit more memorable explanation was in reference to target shooting, where precision was the size of the group of bullet holes and accuracy was the distance from the center of the group to the center of the target.

[daveklepper]

If NS adopts the hub-and-spoke system that CSX was headed for before HH took over, with maximum efficiency, they will definitely be the leader, and their stockholders will have long term benefits that HH will have only promised, in retrospect.  That is my prediction, and I do hope NS does a good job.

[Deggesty]

As to FedEx, I appreciate their delivery service from southern California to me. Once a month, I order certain supplies which are shipped via FexEx--and arrive two days after I order. I am given the FedEx information, which tells me when my order was picked up, some in transit information, when the supplies are put on a truck for delivery, and I am told when the delivery was made. For one month, my supplier used a company which had great trouble getting my order to me; I complained, and the supplier began using FedEx--and I have had no problems now, for going on two years.

Back now to Mr. Harrison's "Precision Treansportation."

[oltmannd]

NS has been doing things similar to what Balt describes as CSX's process since 2003.  

If a car gets off plan, a the plan is automatically revised and a new ETA is sent to the shipper and consigned. RRs also share estimated interchange times based on trip plans. 

All of this is measured for compliance. 

[CSSHEGEWISCH]

With apologies to Basil Fawlty (John Cleese):  CSX could be a really great railroad if it wasn't for the customers.

[BaltACD]

When I retired, CSX was running a loading dock to loading dock schedule network for the Mainifest business.  Relative service times with customers were scheduled as to when the CSX crew 'should' be at their facility to perform service with a nominal 4 hour window.  If a Trainmaster's crews weren't on time 95% of the time servicing their customers, the TM had to develop a plan to insure customers were serviced when expected.

The pulling of a car from industry sets up a schedule for the car to destination or to the interchange point for cars destined off line.  All terminals were continually measured on 'Right Car - Right Train'; there again 95% was the acceptable bottom limit on this metric.

Needless to say Train Origination, transit times and Destination Arrivals were all measured.  Hell was raised if the goals weren't met.

EHH and his methods have not brought Precision Scheduled Railroad to CSX - he has wrecked it.

 

[Norm48327]

MP173

I recall reading a book on UPS about 10 years ago and the book had been written several years prior...so their system was in place about 20 years ago.

At the time of every parcel pickup - usually scheduled by the shipper thru a scan of a bar code, a trip plan was implemented with precision scheduling of the shipment, including final delivery truck. This plan even included making as many "right hand turns" as possible by local delivery trucks so the truck would not be crossing over on coming traffic lanes.

This type of planning was done for 10 pound parcels 20 years ago.  It is the same concept as what the railroads are doing.  

A couple of take aways...UPS is and has been a leader in transportation...and there is the culture which demands a high level of service on their intermodal shipments.

Ed

You are spot on. UPS and FEDEX pretty well follow the same play-book. Virtually their every move from pickup to delivery is scheduled right down to which shelf a package is loaded on a delivery vehicle and only weather is allowed to interfere with the process. Left turns in areas of heavy traffic do waste valuable time.

One shop I worked at wanted our deliveries in the morning but because of the right turn rule we didn't get them till late in the afternoon. When I called UPS to ask about that I was given a lecture.

I will give both companies credit for developing a system that makes them as efficient as possible. Years ago UPS' motto was "We run the tightest ship in the shipping business". Time proved there was a lot of truth in that statement.

So, that begs the question of, barring exceptional circumstances such as weather, why can't/haven't the railroads followed the plan that works for the most efficient delivery services?

Railroad management IMO, is living in the past. "It'll get there when it gets there" seems to be their mantra. They ignore the needs of their customers while favoring their own convenience. That does not appear to me to be the way to attract customers.

My two cents worth.

[MP173]

I recall reading a book on UPS about 10 years ago and the book had been written several years prior...so their system was in place about 20 years ago.

At the time of every parcel pickup - usually scheduled by the shipper thru a scan of a bar code, a trip plan was implemented with precision scheduling of the shipment, including final delivery truck. This plan even included making as many "right hand turns" as possible by local delivery trucks so the truck would not be crossing over on coming traffic lanes.

This type of planning was done for 10 pound parcels 20 years ago.  It is the same concept as what the railroads are doing.  

A couple of take aways...UPS is and has been a leader in transportation...and there is the culture which demands a high level of service on their intermodal shipments.

 

Ed

[samfp1943]

tree68

 

Paul_D_North_Jr

"Precision" is "The train is scheduled to run between Yard A and Yard B in 7 hrs. 39 mins."

 

 

The train will run.  Whether your car will be in that train is hard to say.  Probably not, though.

 

  I am reminded of the story Murphy Siding told once,: "... His lumber yard had ordered a carload of lumber to be delivered ASAP...The car arrived as scheduled at a town to the West of his location,[ the switch for the Yard was facing East. His car was promptly dispatched to the East to a location there. Apparently, due to the cancellation of a 'local job'; the car had to be dispatched on a 'road train'. For some time Murphy Siding went out to watch 'his car' go back and forth on road trains that were scheduled so tightly, they could not stop to deliver the car..."

     I Don't remember exactly, how his delivery conundrum was finally solved??? All of which just proives, that "Precision" can mean about anything that the person espousing it, wants it to mean...

[mudchicken]

You can be incredibly precise while still never coming close to the target transit time. Precision was a really poor choice of words for the branded term somebody keeps pitching.

[MarknLisa]

I like the suggested PSR meanings! 

[oltmannd]

Overmod

As we've repeatedly discussed, keeping road velocity high is a wonderful thing, but it's end-to-end time, and more precisely (pun intended) the exact timing of effective delivery (which is indeed accuracy and not just precision), that are the criteria that I think most matter in actual railroading-as-a-service. 

Yep.  EHH is big on saying railroading is just a bunch of processes.  He's right.  Moving a car from shipper to consignee is a whole bunch of processes linked together.  Getting a train from A to B is one process with lots of sub-processes.  Classifying a car in a yard is a process with lots of sub processes.  Getting a car between customer and serving yard is a process with a whole bunch of sub processes.  

If you want to win the service game, you have to align your managment with the processes, measure them and deliver the measured results to the folks who directly manage those processes.

It does no good to measure transit time for a shipment if you can't break it down into the parts folks manage.  Nobody manages a "shipment", but people manage train operaotions, yard operations and customer work orders.  

Big, overall measures are fine to tell you if you're sick or well, but if you can't parse them into actionable items, all you can do is "pray to the graph".

[BaltACD]

tree68

 

Paul_D_North_Jr

"Precision" is "The train is scheduled to run between Yard A and Yard B in 7 hrs. 39 mins." 

The train will run.  Whether your car will be in that train is hard to say.  Probably not, though.

That is why secondary measurment systems are developed and implemented.

CSX before EHH in addition to keeping track of On Time train performance also had  a Car Scheduling metric, which gave individual car schedules for each car in loose car service.  That metric was nominally referred to as 'Right Car, Right Train'.  Crews serving industries also had scheduled 'time windows' to serve their customers - the service of the industries is reported in real time by crews through the 'On Board Workorder System' using WiFi and dedicated Tablet device.  Once a car is indicated 'pulled' on OBWS a car schedule is created and thereafter tracked until the car reaches its destination.

Local Management were held accountable for On Time service at industries, adherence to Right Car Right Train as well as On Time train operation that was measured on both On Time Departure from Origin as well as On Time Arrival at Destination.

What EHH has done with these measurements ?????????????????

[rdamon]

Prioritizing Shareholder Revenue?

[oltmannd]

What railroads try to do is develop a plan based on what they can reliably do and execute that plan reliably.  

Historic data is often used as the voice of the process.  What is reliable running time from A to B?  How fast can you get a car through Yard C?  How long does it take to stop for fuel and crew change?  What does your data say?  What level of reliability do you want?  What are the variables that drive the results?

All doable if you have the data, have it organized to support analysis, have qualified and knowledgable people to do the analysis and can explain and relate the results to folk who make things go - up and down the food chain. 

 

 

[Overmod]

tree68

Paul_D_North_Jr

"Precision" is "The train is scheduled to run between Yard A and Yard B in 7 hrs. 39 mins."

 The train will run.  Whether your car will be in that train is hard to say.  Probably not, though.

 

Ah, but the question is that 'precision scheduled' has nothing to do with 'precision execution' -- the train may start; it may be delayed en route; it will almost certainly be delayed getting into Yard B when it gets to the approach; and there's a different kind of 'precision schedule' involved in what subsequently happens at Yard B and where the car subsequently goes.

 

As we've repeatedly discussed, keeping road velocity high is a wonderful thing, but it's end-to-end time, and more precisely (pun intended) the exact timing of effective delivery (which is indeed accuracy and not just precision), that are the criteria that I think most matter in actual railroading-as-a-service.  Those appear to be very ill-served indeed by the current implementations of PSR, and I am not sure you can address them with the methodologies EHH is trying to use, even if no one is trying to sabotage him  

[tree68]

Paul_D_North_Jr

"Precision" is "The train is scheduled to run between Yard A and Yard B in 7 hrs. 39 mins."

The train will run.  Whether your car will be in that train is hard to say.  Probably not, though.

[Shadow the Cats owner]

I thought it meant Positivly Screwed-up Railroad.  I had to go see the old GE plastics plant near me for a customer call.  Why had I been called out there CSX has totally dropped the freaking ball getting their cars to them and wanted to know if we could help them out.  They are on the old RI line in Ottawa and since EHH took over have seen about 5 days added to their service times.  They are not happy.

[Paul_D_North_Jr]

mudchicken

Because the people spouting the term really don't know the difference between accuracy and precision, it's pretty much a meaningless concept.

"Precision" is "The train is scheduled to run between Yard A and Yard B in 7 hrs. 39 mins."

"Accuracy" is whether it gets there within 5 minutes of that elapsed time - or 5 hours.  

 - PDN.  

[Miningman]

Pretty Sad Results if I don't say so. 

[mudchicken]

Because the people spouting the term really don't know the difference between accuracy and precision, it's pretty much a meaningless concept.

[BaltACD]

Past Serious Railroaders - Not a cripple on oxygen