The North American Free Trade Agreement is now going to be officially and formally revised, re-written, re-negotiated. All three countries the USA, Canada and Mexico have agreed to this.
Much is made of the loss of industry/factories in the US but a lot, a whole lot, has vanished from Canada as well.
How will this affect railroading? All we know so far are grumblings about soft wood lumber and the implementing of a new stiff tariff on US imports of softwood lumber from Canada. Well that one has been ongoing in dispute for 30 years now! Also we know the US wants to sell us lots of dairy, milk and cheese, so that requires a lowering of our stiff tariff on those products from America.
That's just the beginning and we have not even touched Mexico yet.
We ( Canada) do run an annual surplus Exports vs. Imports with you folks somewhere around 15 billion a year, some years a bit more, some much less. Every April you beat us pretty handily but the other 11 months is in our favour.
It is much higher deficit and more severe with Mexico for both of us.
What else is on the table? What are the implications for the railroads?Especially KCS, CP, CN? ...and then of course by extension everyone else.
I would like to see employment and a manufacturing base return to both of our countries, however , according to Mark Cuban and all, robotics will negate a lot of that employment in the near future. Is this just the rich getting richer or are true National interests being served?
( also...Can we get a resolution to the war of 1812? I think the Native folks were the real losers in that one).
Does GM still make cars in Ontario, near the Windsor end ?
Love that border photo - 80 lb. Algoma Steel rails - good use for them, better than scrap. It'd take a pretty heavy vehicle to lift them out of those X-braces. Bending them isn't likely - and with them rotated so that the "Y-Y" axis is 45 +/- deg. from vertical, there's a combination of both the X-X (horiz.) and Y-Y (vert.) Moments of Inertia which might be stronger than either one alone.
- PDN.
Fiat Chrysler is in the Windsor area. GM plants are in Oshawa, near Toronto and Ingersol, near London, both in Ontario.
Those Algoma manufactured rails purchased by US border protection came from lifted lines in the Canadian prairies. Some kind of head scratching legacy for rails that built a nation and served so well and so long. Wonder what Van Horne and James J. Hill would make of it.
I agree with your assessment, very effective for stopping drug vehicle's like quads, dune buggies and the like.
Auto manufacturing comes under the Auto-Pact agreement. Not sure how it all ties in with NAFTA. It has been on the decline in Canada for some time now. Ford has a huge plant in Oakville, Ontario.
Miningman ..........Every April you beat us pretty handily but the other 11 months is in our favour..........
..........Every April you beat us pretty handily but the other 11 months is in our favour..........
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
Murphy Siding- I do not know but can speculate. Believe it has to do with agricultural products, lots of fruits and veggies, all sorts of new crop produce coming in while we are still digging out of winter. Thats just a guess. It goes back years and years though.
Maybe it's the hockey playoffs...we just order in everything from the States!
Miningmanaccording to Mark Cuban and all, robotics will negate a lot of that employment in the near future.
I've been in information Technology all my life and Mark Cuban's 20 year prediction is pure bull crap. We are nowhere near that level of software support. Just two years ago I was managing a restaurant looking for a table ordering automation solution...........they are a good 7-10 years away from one that is robust enough to replace a waiter in a full service restaurant. They have a few solutions available for fast food to replace in a restaurant where the menu rarely changes and they are mostly crap and need some labor on the backend to keep functional. Thats just replacing humans in a rudimentary role. Add in any kind of complex decision making and we are a few decades away from computers being able to handle that.......probably 40-50 years min. 20 years is way too optimistic and presumes no intermediate global wars, no deep recessions, or any other setbacks.
BTW, guess what happens in 2050? By that year the population in almost every country on earth falls below population replacement and every country starts to loose population or experience a decline in population year to year. Is it just coincidence, that computers are replacing humans on an increasing scale or is it the master plan? I think it is just amazing coincidence we reach both milestones about the same time....don't you?
So I don't see civilization collapse as Mark was portraying it. It will be a rough transition in places no doubt but we will live through it OK and adapt if it does happen. I think railroads and railroading will be around easily for another century.
Miningman( also...Can we get a resolution to the war of 1812? I think the Native folks were the real losers in that one).
Read D.R. Hickey or the Canadian, Don Graves.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
If, at the end of the day, the "new" NAFTA is anything much more than closing a few loopholes and tweaking, we'll all lose. Navarro has to go. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade-analysis-idUSKBN17U2SL
It'll be crushing for us and our economy. (and RR traffic!)
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
I suspect shortly we will be hearing 'NAFTA is complicated, who knew!'
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
IMO, NAFTA was written to benefit major corporations and their large investors. It's allowed them to move operations (and jobs) out of the US, and probably Canada, to a place with low wages and non-enforced, if not non-existant regulations of any kind. Then they can bring their products back into the US at reduced tariffs.
I don't blame China or Mexico for taking our jobs. They were willingly sent there.
Jeff
Jeffhergertt- Yeah....that part seems to be kind of transparent and obvious. So what does this round accomplish? Almost afraid to ask or find out. Hopefully a realization that things went too far and some reversal. Surely the 1% cannot take more of the pie for themselves.
Let's hope it's for the good for a change.
jeffhergertI don't blame China or Mexico for taking our jobs. They were willingly sent there.
That was on the Blue Collar or Manufacturing end. On the White Collar end the jobs went to.......
1. India
2. Pakistan
3. Egypt
4. Isreal
NAFTA seems to be working reasonably well as it is.. sure.. tweek it some to keep it up with the times. No point in wasting alot of time and energy that could be more effectively invested in other projects.
Ulrich,
I disagree. Mexico has far lower labor rates and both the U.S. and Canada have suffered from that. Sure, jobs have migrated, but they haven't stopped here, they have gone south of the Rio Grande. That is only of benefit to Mexico, not to either of the best trading partners in North America.
Where lies the problem? Call it corporate greed and the wish of stockholders for better returns on their investment. It's one of the failings of capitalism. No system is perfect but our mutual interests are being lost in the name of corporate profits.
Norm
jeffhergertIMO, NAFTA was written to benefit major corporations and their large investors. It's allowed them to move operations (and jobs) out of the US, and probably Canada, to a place with low wages and non-enforced, if not non-existant regulations of any kind. Then they can bring their products back into the US at reduced tariffs. I don't blame China or Mexico for taking our jobs. They were willingly sent there. Jeff
It's too bad you feel that way. But there's little or nothing I can say here that would change your thinking. We'd be hard pressed to find an independent economist who doesn't know and say that free trade benefits the people of the nations involved.
Let's take Iowa as an example. Iowa is the major center for pork production in the US. Around 23% of US pork production is exported. The largest customer in terms of pork volume exported from the US is Mexico. That country receives 8% of US pork production.
https://www.usmef.org/international-markets/mexico/
The volume of pork to Mexico is 1.2 million short tons. The value of these exports to Mexico has increased 43% over the past 10 years under NAFTA.
If the US significantly limits imports from Mexico they will have to retaliate by limiting US exports to Mexico. This will, of course, harm the people of Mexico by driving up the price of their pork.
It will also harm people in the US. Everyone from the Iowa farmers who grow the grain to feed the hogs, to the mechanics who work on the farm equipment, to the equipment dealers, to the meat plant workers, to the truckers who haul the live hogs, to the investors in the meat companies will significantly loose. And that's not an exhaustive list of all who will suffer from trade barriers.
It is not a proper role of the Federal Government to favor one group of US people over another by enacting trade barriers.
Free trade does benefit the average American. I know you'll never accept that. But it is true.
I had to contact Comcast yesterday and their call center that answered was in Columbia. In my conversatin with the agent, I learned that the wage scale was about $2.00/hr. Significantly lower than the US minimun wage (<$10). And I suspect that it has no benefits. I also suspect that it is higher than the call centers that I have gone to in the Phillipines, or in India. The agent mentioned that they have heard of compaints from callers about not being able to understand the agents from those countries. When I call HP, the call ctr is normally in India. The big companies want to keep their costs down so the CEO's can get their performace bonuses and that is one cost cutting technique. I wish they would hire american workers.
Look at us in the UK, Brexit!!!!!
Electroliner 1935 I had to contact Comcast yesterday and their call center that answered was in Columbia. In my conversatin with the agent, I learned that the wage scale was about $2.00/hr. Significantly lower than the US minimun wage (<$10). And I suspect that it has no benefits. I also suspect that it is higher than the call centers that I have gone to in the Phillipines, or in India. The agent mentioned that they have heard of compaints from callers about not being able to understand the agents from those countries. When I call HP, the call ctr is normally in India. The big companies want to keep their costs down so the CEO's can get their performace bonuses and that is one cost cutting technique. I wish they would hire american workers.
Johnny
gwyn68 Look at us in the UK, Brexit!!!!!
The way the Brexit vote went in Britain may have surprised some people, but it didn't surprise me, I'll tell you why, and gwyn68 you're more than free to correct me if I'm very wrong.
If what I've read is true when the British Empire began to dissolve in the years after World War Two the people who cared least about it were the British working class, because what did they ever get out of the Empire except spilled blood to maintain it and taxes to support it?
So too with the European Union. What did the working class get out of it? Probably little or nothing. So no wonder the Brexit vote went the way it did.
Just one man's opinion.
Deggesty Electroliner 1935 I had to contact Comcast yesterday and their call center that answered was in Columbia. In my conversatin with the agent, I learned that the wage scale was about $2.00/hr. Significantly lower than the US minimun wage (<$10). And I suspect that it has no benefits. I also suspect that it is higher than the call centers that I have gone to in the Phillipines, or in India. The agent mentioned that they have heard of compaints from callers about not being able to understand the agents from those countries. When I call HP, the call ctr is normally in India. The big companies want to keep their costs down so the CEO's can get their performace bonuses and that is one cost cutting technique. I wish they would hire american workers. Columbia, S.C., Tenn., Miss., Va., or the country ColOmbia?
Columbia, S.C., Tenn., Miss., Va., or the country ColOmbia?
You overlooked Maryland!
BaltACDYou overlooked Maryland!
and less explicably, Columbia, PA, as in "Philadelphia & Columbia", which George Washington supported to be capital of the United States (and Congress missed confirming by only one vote).
Man are you out to lunch. Brexit was due to one factor......imigration from other EU countries. Travel in the UK and you'll find millions of people who moved to the UK since Britain joined the EU. The EU was not only an economic union but a political union meaning that people were free to travel and live in whatever country they wanted to. I've been to Britain a number of times in the last 5 years and you see this everywhere. Outside of London, many of the locals are upset by this massive and uncontrolled influx of imigrants. They are concerned about culture loss, crime and job loss. The EU has been a success from and economic sense.....all you have to do is look at the volume of freight moving to and from Britain to the continent. In the end, Brexit will get sorted out and life will go on.
BaltACD Deggesty Electroliner 1935 I had to contact Comcast yesterday and their call center that answered was in Columbia. In my conversatin with the agent, I learned that the wage scale was about $2.00/hr. Significantly lower than the US minimun wage (<$10). And I suspect that it has no benefits. I also suspect that it is higher than the call centers that I have gone to in the Phillipines, or in India. The agent mentioned that they have heard of compaints from callers about not being able to understand the agents from those countries. When I call HP, the call ctr is normally in India. The big companies want to keep their costs down so the CEO's can get their performace bonuses and that is one cost cutting technique. I wish they would hire american workers. Columbia, S.C., Tenn., Miss., Va., or the country ColOmbia? You overlooked Maryland!
Firelock,cpr,mmm! you are both part right,i am 71 yrs old now so voted yes to the original joining of the Economic Union,but like lot of my ordinary "working class"friends did, we could see the benefits of a Economic Union,so well and good ,but we did not vote to become a part of what has become a political union.
The troubles in the Middle East have brought things to a head i suppose,the migrant issue is enormous,thankfully we have that 25 mile stretch of water between us and Mainland Europe.
I can assure you that most of my friends did not vote on the basis of racism (as sections of the press and politicians who would not put their heads above the parapet would have you beleive)but felt that we were under the control of Brussels,EU law over rode ours!
Sorry matey i am British, not a Europhile who cant make his mind up without a commitee to review the decision first.
My sister has lived in France since she was 18yrs old and she and her family and lots of their friends feel the same us!you can sense why the politico's are worried.
If it had remained just an economic Union i dont think you would be seeing todays problems.
But yes, it will get sorted out eventualy one way or the other.
We are where we are?
Don.
Norm48327 Ulrich, I disagree. Mexico has far lower labor rates and both the U.S. and Canada have suffered from that. Sure, jobs have migrated, but they haven't stopped here, they have gone south of the Rio Grande. That is only of benefit to Mexico, not to either of the best trading partners in North America. Where lies the problem? Call it corporate greed and the wish of stockholders for better returns on their investment. It's one of the failings of capitalism. No system is perfect but our mutual interests are being lost in the name of corporate profits.
Norm48327,
You forgot one other group that drove manufacturing out of the U.S....the unions and union workers. Yes, unions were great in the beginning, but they began to lose significance when they ignored the world and kept on demanding more pay and greater benefits without seeing how the workers and the companies they worked for could compete in the global economy.
If anyone here would actually bother to read NAFTA it's not really as bad as the Donald makes it out to be. It really only needs some tweeks to update it to the modern world and the emergence of e-commerce and other modern economic factors. It also needs to be really a free trade agreement between the 3 countries, and that would eliminate ALL tariffs on every commodity produced by the 3 countries. It does need to correct the relaxation of rules on Mexican truckers that come into the U.S. and make them meet our environmental standards(that's to make it a level playing field.
For the IT person, Mark Cuban is probably a lot closer to the status of the robotics world than you are, and it will take robots to replace service workers. There's already a robot bartender that works independently. A restaraunt in Japan just opened with robot servers. Software is only a part of the work needed, robots are the other factor. I believe it will be sooner than later that a lot of work will be automated and the other than manual labor most work will be maintenance and repair of the automated systems.
I can name two countries that will not be seeing negative population growth by the year 2050...India and China; India for sure as they do not have any controls in place nor do they plan on putting any in place. China may or may not reach negative population growth, depends on how many families have more than one child and how many females are not euthanized because their not males and supposedly can't take care of the parents/grandparents. Nor do I think will most current countries in the Middle East or Africa reach negative population growth, the native populations do not practice anything resembling birth control, and if you say food supply is limited just look at how much we throw away now and tell me it's limited, we just need to not be so damned picky on what it looks like.
As for Brexit, talk to me in 5 -10 years and let me know how your economy is doing then? Remember, the grass is not always greener on the other side.
I have the solution to the Middle East problem...let them kill each other, just like they've been doing for millenia, it's natural for them.
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