erikemThe drought we've had the last 5 years, which appears to be ending this week (at least in the Sierras) pales in comparison to the two or so centuries of drought around the year 1000.
The folks in the middle ages must have been responsible, f'rinstance:
The development of a three-field rotation system for planting crops increased the usage of land from one half in use each year under the old two-field system to two-thirds under the new system, with a consequent increase in production. The development of the heavy plough allowed heavier soils to be farmed more efficiently, aided by the spread of the horse collar, which led to the use of draught horses in place of oxen. Horses are faster than oxen and require less pasture, factors that aided the implementation of the three-field system.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
schlimm erikem As for increased storms and other extreme weather "from climate change", the jury is definitely out as there hasn't been any statistically significant increase in tornadoes of hurricanes for the US. You may be right or not. However, what's your source? Also, extreme weather is not limited to tornadoes and hurricanes, nor to just the USA. https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extremes/
erikem As for increased storms and other extreme weather "from climate change", the jury is definitely out as there hasn't been any statistically significant increase in tornadoes of hurricanes for the US.
You may be right or not. However, what's your source? Also, extreme weather is not limited to tornadoes and hurricanes, nor to just the USA.
https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extremes/
For analysis of major storm damage in the US, see Roger Pielke Jr's work. For Storm energy, see Klotzbach and Landsea in Journal of Climate 28 7621-7629.
As for extreme weather events in California, nothing has exceeded the flooding of the San Joaquin Valley circa 1860 (due to an "atmospheric river"). The drought we've had the last 5 years, which appears to be ending this week (at least in the Sierras) pales in comparison to the two or so centuries of drought around the year 1000. Fires are another issue, turns out that the landscape in much of California prior to 1770 was heavily influenced by deliberately set fires.
One of the more eye-opening facts about CO2 is that the lifetime for a given CO2 molecule in the atmosphere is about 15 years based on the experience with 14C produced by hydrogen bomb testing - the 14.1 MeV neutrons from the D-T fusion reaction kick protons out of 14N nuclei to produce 14C. The question then becomes is how does it take for a given increase in CO2 to decay away, allowing for the fact that the processes that absorb CO2 also release CO2.
dakotafredDemocrats in Washington could care less about early detection or a missile-intercept system.
We have much of the early detection, for example this project, and as relatively inexpensive cameras and motion tracking and analysis systems proliferate (and intercommunication among pro and amateur astronomers does too) we should have plenty of advance warning. I grant you SPACEGUARD is a reasonable priority, but we need a more coherent, and preferably more global, allocation of the response cost.
But a "missile intercept system"? That's not what you need. What needs to be flown is a soft-landing, configurable boost system that can put enough lateral momentum change on a suspected orbit-crossing asteroid to miss... or place into stable orbit for capture and mining. Automate it if you have to, but don't think that throwing large-yield devices, or fast-boost high-kinetic-energy heads, will do much to any 'extinction-level-event' sized celestial body...
BaltACD erikem The real disaster that few are talking about is the next big Cascadia earthquake and associated tsunami. Don't overlook the eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera that is overdue on its cycle of eruptions.
erikem The real disaster that few are talking about is the next big Cascadia earthquake and associated tsunami.
Don't overlook the eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera that is overdue on its cycle of eruptions.
Given that the topic of climate change is as divisive as that of gun control don't expect either side to be willing to negotiate their position. Politeness, under the guise of political correctness will not likely be found in the discussion. Think it's bad here, try reading some of the comments sections on news sites where the trolls are.
Norm
schlimm I also think it's less than polite for the OP to have given this thread such a derogatory (to Wrinn) title.
I also think it's less than polite for the OP to have given this thread such a derogatory (to Wrinn) title.
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
schlimm In any case, it's a moot point. Trump is going to turn back the clock. It sounds as though he will purge the Department of Enrrgy of any employees who attended UN climate conferences in the last five years.
In any case, it's a moot point. Trump is going to turn back the clock. It sounds as though he will purge the Department of Enrrgy of any employees who attended UN climate conferences in the last five years.
I think we should wait for him to take office first before attempting to guess.
Agree, something to be said for private communications vs public, IMHO.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
erikemAs for increased storms and other extreme weather "from climate change", the jury is definitely out as there hasn't been any statistically significant increase in tornadoes of hurricanes for the US.
There seems to be a growing list of bad things attributed to climate change.
http://www.newsweek.com/nepal-earthquake-could-have-been-manmade-disaster-climate-change-brings-326017
Might even include an item on how the claimed overdesign has come close to killing the electrification project In the U.K.
Murphy Siding I'm one of those boring people that likes to read the history stuff- if it's well written. I'd like to see a long article or series of articles along the line of "The current routes of America's railroads are system are what they are because of the history of how the system developed, and here's how they did....".
I'm one of those boring people that likes to read the history stuff- if it's well written. I'd like to see a long article or series of articles along the line of "The current routes of America's railroads are system are what they are because of the history of how the system developed, and here's how they did....".
Murphy,
The nearest thing I know to this is two books by Richard Saunders; Main Lines and Merging Lines which need to be read in that order. I presume they are available at Amazon.
Mac
Norm48327 The article is short enough you can probably read it in the store. One quick page if I recall.
The article is short enough you can probably read it in the store. One quick page if I recall.
CSSHEGEWISCH Euclid I would like to see an article about equipping tank cars with ECP brakes as required by the mandate to have ECP brakes on oil trains by a certain date. Specifically, how much work has been done so far, and what is expectation that railroads will meet the deadline? What are the technical details of this ECP brake installation? Are they expected to be the same for all participating railroads? It would help if you read the magazine. There is a write-up in the latest issue about a review of the FRA mandate by the Government Accountability Office.
Euclid I would like to see an article about equipping tank cars with ECP brakes as required by the mandate to have ECP brakes on oil trains by a certain date. Specifically, how much work has been done so far, and what is expectation that railroads will meet the deadline? What are the technical details of this ECP brake installation? Are they expected to be the same for all participating railroads?
I would like to see an article about equipping tank cars with ECP brakes as required by the mandate to have ECP brakes on oil trains by a certain date. Specifically, how much work has been done so far, and what is expectation that railroads will meet the deadline? What are the technical details of this ECP brake installation? Are they expected to be the same for all participating railroads?
Does the article address my questions? I can go buy the magazine tomorrow.
BaltACD erikem The real disaster that few are talking about is the next big Cascadia earthquake and associated tsunami.
A major in-depth multi-railroad article on PTC is an absolute necessity.
erikemThe real disaster that few are talking about is the next big Cascadia earthquake and associated tsunami.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Phoebe Vet The climate argument is a repeat of the smoking argument. If you just keep screaming "it's not true", a surprising number of people will believe that the scientists have sold out to (insert your favorite villan here).
The climate argument is a repeat of the smoking argument. If you just keep screaming "it's not true", a surprising number of people will believe that the scientists have sold out to (insert your favorite villan here).
A few differences between the smoking argument and climate change argument.
With smoking, the "sample size" was tens of millions, so it was relatively easy to get good statistics on the correlation on smoking with cancer and heart disease. A precendence for the link was the much higher risks of chimney sweeps getting scrotal cancer. Contrast this with the elsuive connection between EMF exposure and cancer and lack of any clear mechanism for causation.
With global warming, the "sample size" is one, so we don't have much in the way of statistics on causes of climate change (i.e. how much is natural and how much is human induced). The science on the amount of radiative forcing results from doubling CO2 is fairly well settled assuming that water vapor content doesn't change. With no feedback mechanisms, radiative heat balance suggests a 1.2C warming for a global average - which means that some areas will warm less and some will warm more. What is far from settled is the effects of feedback mechanisms, primarily water vapor - and clouds.
Yet another problem with global warming studies is the lack of validated climate models. There are a lot of simplifying assumptions made in the models to allow them to run in a reasonable timeframe on very large computers. One is a large grid size that doesn't directly handle cloud and thunderstorm formation. In addition, the models are incredibly sensitive to initial conditions, a difference of a few trillionths of a degree results in very different weather tracks with just one month of modeled time.
There's also a poorly answered question about what is the ideal concentraion of CO2. If we go much lower than the pre-industrial concentration of 280ppm, we'd be running the danger of dramatic reduction in agricultural productivity and stand a good chance of sliding into another global glaciation (AKA ice age) event. The current 400ppm appears to be causing a global greening as plants need less water to grow.
I do see local warming due to urban heat island effects as a problem. I'm also one who is frustrated with the amount of night time light pollution - remembering being able to see the Milky Way in southern California.
I also agree with Balt in that much of the "extreme weather" mentioned in the article is nothing new. The east coast has been hit by many huge storms over the centuries, Hurricane Sandy actually caused fewer deaths than the 1938 hurricane that hit Long Island and Connecticut (and featured in a Trains article on testing a New Haven EF-4). California has had century long droughts a thousand years ago.
The real disaster that few are talking about is the next big Cascadia earthquake and associated tsunami.
I would not be surprised to learn that some of the birdseed salesmen have sold enough to pay enormous sums for the electricity they use.
Johnny
Dear Jim Wrinn:
First of all, Thanks for 'getting down in the swamp' and mingling with us alligator wrasslers. I came late to this Thread, so I had a chance to read some of the other poster's comments. Start with Paul North's several suggestions, then follow along with RME's comments and Euclid's as well. And any number of other posters comments...
Paul_D_North_Jr If that's the problem, they're not trying. The presentations and papers from the annual AREMA conference alone would fill the magazine for a year. Sure, lots are technical and way over the head of the average reader, but some are not - e.g., the new XYZ bridge or ABC intermodal yard - and those that are could be simplified (isn't that what editors are for ?). There are many other organizations and events that could provide similar fodder. Progressive Railroading sponsors a security-oriented event soon. Heck, Trains itself sponsors the Wheel-Rail Interface conference - there must be something new, else why have it ? American Short Line RR Assn., Assoc. of RR Supts., Nat'l. RR Contractors Assn., Lexington Rail History Group, APTA, must be AAR Mechanical, Accounting, and HR groups, C&S groups, etc. See Murphy's current thread on weighing and scales - "Eyeballing it"- for another far-out example. I still haven't seen a step-by-step illustration of how the Iron Highway/ CP Expressway cars load and unload. How is a modern tamper/ liner contorlled and operated ? How about the gepotechnical guys who widen/ raise tunnels (Shannon & Wilson) ? What about environmental remediation of spills and old facilities like tie-treating plants ? What's life like for a bridge worker or inspector ? Interview the Ice Cold Express people who got screwed by BNSF. Go back over everything Railway Man/ 1435 mm, greyhounds, BaltACD - to name just a few - have posted to glean for ideas. Otherwise, just print the old stuff and call it "Classic Trains II" (or Light, or Jr., etc.). - Paul North.
If that's the problem, they're not trying. The presentations and papers from the annual AREMA conference alone would fill the magazine for a year. Sure, lots are technical and way over the head of the average reader, but some are not - e.g., the new XYZ bridge or ABC intermodal yard - and those that are could be simplified (isn't that what editors are for ?).
There are many other organizations and events that could provide similar fodder. Progressive Railroading sponsors a security-oriented event soon. Heck, Trains itself sponsors the Wheel-Rail Interface conference - there must be something new, else why have it ? American Short Line RR Assn., Assoc. of RR Supts., Nat'l. RR Contractors Assn., Lexington Rail History Group, APTA, must be AAR Mechanical, Accounting, and HR groups, C&S groups, etc. See Murphy's current thread on weighing and scales - "Eyeballing it"- for another far-out example. I still haven't seen a step-by-step illustration of how the Iron Highway/ CP Expressway cars load and unload. How is a modern tamper/ liner contorlled and operated ? How about the gepotechnical guys who widen/ raise tunnels (Shannon & Wilson) ? What about environmental remediation of spills and old facilities like tie-treating plants ? What's life like for a bridge worker or inspector ? Interview the Ice Cold Express people who got screwed by BNSF. Go back over everything Railway Man/ 1435 mm, greyhounds, BaltACD - to name just a few - have posted to glean for ideas.
Otherwise, just print the old stuff and call it "Classic Trains II" (or Light, or Jr., etc.).
- Paul North.
Jim Wrinn Thanks Murphy, and everyone for the feedback. We appreciate that some of you question the validity of climate change, and you disagree with its placement as a cover topic. If you read the climate change story, you'll learn that the big class I railroads, Amtrak, and major commuter railroads are taking steps to prepare for more servere weather related to climate change. How do we know this? We did our job and talked to them. Trains will always be looking to write about the biggest issues related to railroading for its cover topics. Next month we'll look at the newest and longest tunnel in the world and one of the most challenging tunnel projects ever in the heart of the nation's capitol. Then we'll be onto the elephant in the room: Now that coal has fizzled, where does the industry go from here. Later, we'll explore a serious preservation topic: Did we save too much? A couple of specific replies as to suggested content: We covered major bottlenecks around the nation in the March 2016 issue, and our look at the NTSB and how the agency conducts investigations was a part of the Train Wrecks special magaizne, which is still available in digital form. Historical topics are part of the mix of stories we will continue to run. Thanks again for the feedback, and have a great day! Jim
Thanks Murphy, and everyone for the feedback. We appreciate that some of you question the validity of climate change, and you disagree with its placement as a cover topic. If you read the climate change story, you'll learn that the big class I railroads, Amtrak, and major commuter railroads are taking steps to prepare for more servere weather related to climate change. How do we know this? We did our job and talked to them.
Trains will always be looking to write about the biggest issues related to railroading for its cover topics. Next month we'll look at the newest and longest tunnel in the world and one of the most challenging tunnel projects ever in the heart of the nation's capitol. Then we'll be onto the elephant in the room: Now that coal has fizzled, where does the industry go from here. Later, we'll explore a serious preservation topic: Did we save too much?
A couple of specific replies as to suggested content: We covered major bottlenecks around the nation in the March 2016 issue, and our look at the NTSB and how the agency conducts investigations was a part of the Train Wrecks special magaizne, which is still available in digital form. Historical topics are part of the mix of stories we will continue to run.
Thanks again for the feedback, and have a great day! Jim
I don't read Trains for conventional wisdom, or 'settled science,' about climate change. If climate is warming, good. (Better than the Ice Age foreseen by some Russian scientists.) That man is influencing it by his piddling addition to CO2 and other gases produced by nature is disputed by MANY climatologists.
(Climatologists -- not scientists from other disciplines who are easily persuaded, usually by their political predilections, to sign petitions.)
To the point, the inflammatory (heh, heh) illustration warned me that I didn't need to read the article. The rest of the magazine was, unfortunately, a bore, the usual monthly hour of skimming.
In the old days, David M. would fill news gaps with the kind of articles that have now been pre-empted by Classic Trains. I sympathize with Wrinn to the extent that this option is largely closed to him. For the rest: Where are the letters from readers that used to enliven Trains' pages? The book reviews? The sharp opinion pieces? (And don't give me the present lame, repetitive old columnists.)
A subscriber, with a single gap of about 10 years, since the 1960s, I stick with Trains as I would an old club that has slipped as I grew older (and no doubt slipped myself). They'd have to do worse than the climate-change BS to drive me away.
But I'm not fooled. If Trains wants to outlast old sentimentalists like me, it had better -- in the wonderful old phrase often used by John Kneiling -- pull up its socks.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.