MidlandMike Railroads are only one form of transportation. While coal and CBR are down, new oil and gas pipelines are being built. Has trucking's share of general freight gone up? What about waterways? You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy.
Railroads are only one form of transportation. While coal and CBR are down, new oil and gas pipelines are being built. Has trucking's share of general freight gone up? What about waterways? You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy.
Your funny...
I think most of us were referring to how the Federal Reserve reaches it's conclusions on the Economy. I can't guess who taught you the above but generally they are incorrect. They generally use railroad car loads for the Beige Book NOT pipeline anything, NOT barge anything. I am not sure about Trucking it's been over 22 years since I supported PhD Economists on a Economic Analysis staff. That Economics Staff as well used railroad carload reporting as a primary measure of the economy. I don't remember them using trucking either but I could have missed it.
Pipeline plus Waterway combined have less share of transportation than the rails do. Plus I believe the railways reporting on traffic is much more reliable than the above two. So thats why I suspect they exclude pipelines and internal waterways.
You can read the Federal Reserve Beige Book yourself, it is posted online.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/default.htm
Please show me or highlight the areas where it refers to Barge or Pipeline Traffic, if you can find it. I only see Railroad carloads referenced as well as container loads referenced at ports.
Every thing I see and read sends the image that slow economy is a world wide phenomenom at the present time. With the interconnectedness of economies all over the globe, each affects the other. The times of the US booming and the rest of the world struggling to survive are long past.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Yeah unfortunately I believe the last "good" Economy was under George Bush. You need 3%+ GDP for a healthy economy in my opinion. We really do not know where we stand with unemployment due to bad government statistic gathering.
Whomever the next President is, I hope they fix the stats gathering for the economy, unemployment, and law enforcement agencies. It would fix a lot of the arguing and protesting going on now if we at least had a decent view.
We need to see consistent 250,000+ job growth monthly. Anyhow, we have been running about 1-2% GDP growth and I think that is why the railroads are off on earnings and traffic levels. Some believe that is the new normal. I say with our high immigration levels if that is the new normal than in 20 years we will be a very second rate country with a wide division between rich and poor.
When I worked in support of GM on a EDS contract I remember the railroad marketing folks when they came to call on GM, they would be in the lobby with their nametags and RR heralds on their nametags. Union Pacific was by far the best dressed, with shoes spit-shined, suits pressed and impeccable shirt tie combinations. CSX I never saw anyone there, nor did I ever see NS. BNSF I would rate a close second to UP. Never personally saw their marketing presentations though only how they dressed while in the lobby. This was also back in 1993 so things could have changed since then.
It seems as if we have two economies these days. One hovers on the verge of recession and hampers consumer spending due a scarcity of jobs and falling wages. The other is experiencing a robust recovery, creating thousands of new, good paying jobs, and boasts the lowest unemployment in many years. Which of these is true depends on each person’s individual point of view. It can be fact checked, but there are enough published facts to support either viewpoint. So I see it as a personal choice. The measure of GDP is perhaps one of the more objective statistics, but even that is said to be shaped by such nebulous factors as bad weather.
On the these trains forums and blogs, people frequently talk about the railroad recession, and they typically blame it on the demise of coal and to some extent on shrinking crude oil traffic. Less often do they consider the possibility that the low rail traffic may be one very visible component of a slow national economy.
In my opinion, the economy is being spun to be much better than it really is, and the slump in rail traffic paints a big picture that is hard to spin. So depending on a person’s viewpoint, they either accept the connection of the railroad recession to the national economy, or they come up with other explanations for the railroad recession.
Over on Fred Frailey’s blog, they have concluded that the sudden loss of business is due to incompetent marketing. It seems to me that poor marketing would be a long range problem that would not adequately account for a recession that began only a couple years ago.
Here is an article on the railroad recession.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/04/freight-rail-traffic-plunges-aar-april-report-photos-idled-engines-transportation-recession/
This article shows the locomotives out of service and parked on the Union Pacific RR.
Stored locomotives always evoke concerns about the risk of vandalism, and sympathy for of out of work employees who would be running those locomotives, but the problem is much deeper than that. Here on the U.P. are 292 engines, each worth big bucks, each not producing any revenue, and each depreciating in time and weather. It is the cost of unproductive capital.
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