tree68 Anyone who has wondered how NWS can get it so wrong because either a: the forecast was for a 50% chance of rain and it didn't rain at their house or b: the forecast was only for a 50% chance of rain and it did rain at their house should understand that just because it's not raining here, it's not raining there. It never ceases to amaze me to hear two people wonder that it rained here, but not there... I was watching the parking lot of our local community college one evening before a night class when a shower came through. The lot was mostly empty at the time. There was a very well defined line between where it rained, and where it didn't, right through the middle of that parking lot.
Anyone who has wondered how NWS can get it so wrong because either a: the forecast was for a 50% chance of rain and it didn't rain at their house or b: the forecast was only for a 50% chance of rain and it did rain at their house should understand that just because it's not raining here, it's not raining there.
It never ceases to amaze me to hear two people wonder that it rained here, but not there...
I was watching the parking lot of our local community college one evening before a night class when a shower came through. The lot was mostly empty at the time.
There was a very well defined line between where it rained, and where it didn't, right through the middle of that parking lot.
There is a difference in how the percentage of precip is conveyed between North and South.
In the North 90% chance of precip means everybody in the forecast area is going to get wet 90% of the time.
In the South 90% chance of precip means 90% of the areas in the forecast will see 'some' precip during the forecast time.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
I recall, and probaly so does Larry, being in San Angelo and watching it rain like crazy on one side of the street and not a drop on the other side.
Norm
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
A few weeks ago, Council Bluffs got heavy rains. Water was in the streets and over the tracks a few places one wouldn't have inspected. The UP put out flash flood warnings like they always do. Track inspectors were out in force.
I was stopped in Omaha about a mile west of the Amtrak/Durham Musuem (old Union Station) location. A track inspector went west. About 10 minutes later an empty grain train went east around me and had to stop by Amtrak. Water was over the rail, due to a clogged drain as it turned out. Point is, it can happen that fast. That location is about the last place you would expect water over the rail.
Jeff
cabforward if im making a rush to judgment, o.k..
Pretty much, yeah.
This wasn't a storm pointed at "Corsicana", this was a storm that covered 2/3 the country of Mexico and parts of a five state area. Corsicana was just on the northern edge of the most severe area. From Ft Worth to Beaumont and Ft Worth to Brownsville was the heaviest impacted area with the second heaviest being an area that extended up into the boot heel of Missouri and southern Illinois.
You're from S Carolina. Here's what you are suggesting. A hurricane is coming by Cuba, you are wanting to shut down all the highways and railroads in Florida, Georgia, S Carolina and N Carolina for the three or four days it takes for the storm to pass over the eastern seaboard and the water to drain off.
It would be like me asking you to, 3 days before the next hurricane hits, tell me the subdivision, milepost and time that there will be a washout. If you can do that you have a huge future in the weather business because so far there isn't a weather service or university research group that can do that with any reliability, if there was the railroads would have hired them.
i wouldn't wait for it to get any closer before i would put everyone on alert to the POSSIBILITY that the storm could strike my area of responsibility.. that means advising all working train crews to be ready to take emergency measures to insure crew safety, then train safety.
They do that already. Been doing that for years. They have alerts for heavy rains, potential flash floods, high winds, they put out bulletins for crews, get emergency materials in place, preposition emergency generators and chain saws, retain excavating and emergency services companies, etc. all the railroads do all of that. The point is they don't know where its going to flood.
They send out frequent patrols night and day, they inspect bridges to make sure there isn't debris blocking the channels, the crews are on alert to report any places they see water coming up, the dispatchers have instructions that track patrols get the highest priority, the railroad monitor the very few and far between water gauges still left in service, they have custom weather reports. All that stuff.
They aren't about to shut down interstate commerce in a 5 state area for half a week like you are suggesting on the chance that there might be a washout.
They aren't going to cost themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in lost traffic and lawsuits from delayed materials on the chance they might have a derailment that might cost a hundred thousand dollars.
i just dont buy it.. the technology is there, anyone can turn the dial, turn on the set, call a station, use a two-way radio, pick up a cellphone or go on a weather website and see whats happening.
Knowing there is a storm coming is easy. Knowing that Chambers Creek will overflow at mp 214.4 between 2:45 and 3;00 am on day 3 of the storm is not.
but, i could be wrong!
Yep.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
Can't speak to UP or any carriers other than my own. We have a Professional Weather Forecasting Service that supplies numerous kinds of warnings to railroad operating personnel. Flash Flood warnings are among the warnings issued. The warnings have specified starting and expiration times as well as specified milepost limits. Upon receipt, the Flood Warning is given to any trains in the affected area and the warning is issued on a train message to notify all other trains as they come on duty. The Warning also goes to the MofW organization who is then responsible for inspecting the affected area and issuing any further restrictions (taking track out of service) as they feel necessary from observation of the track structure and it's interface with the watershed. Despite the designated ending time that received on the warning from the weather service, the warning will stay in effect until MofW have inspected the territory and reported all is well AFTER the expiration of the warning.
T&E personnel have rules in the rule book that instruct them how to operate their trains when flood warnings are in effect.
Flash flood warnings do not stop all rail activity immediately as some would think should be the case. Experience has taught both T&E Crews and MofW personnel where the trouble areas will be.
About flash floods. The US weather service is hopelessly behind. The TV stations and private weather services have much better weather radar that is especially good for seeing rain bands. It is the rain bands we have all seen that cause these local flash floods. Yet an area can have only mild rain other wise.
IMO what is needed is a hydro map that is overlaid onto location maps including residential, roads, & RRs. Then if a rain band is located over a creek the area down stream can be locally warned. Unfortunately that is not yet the case.
In defense of UP that creek could have been fed by a rain band that overwhelmed the creek. As another posted just a mild rain in places. Thoughts ?
COTTON BELT RUNS A
Blue Streak
Trinity River as an example of flood stage in Dallas area. First picture where it looks like a normal river is actually minor flood stage the river is usually even narrower than that. See how big the viaducts are and how the small river can grow to a huge river......
http://thescoopblog.dallasnews.com/2015/05/what-the-trinity-river-near-downtown-dallas-looks-like-a-few-feet-above-minor-flood-stage.html/
tree68 Looking at the topo maps and satellite images of the area, the creek is depicted as a dotted line - generally indicating that foot wide, six inch deep type of creek CMStPnP describes. Hardly more than a drainage ditch. News images show something better described as a small lake. The undercutting would seem to me to be a real possibility, and given the rising water, and the rain, something the crew may not have been able to see.
Looking at the topo maps and satellite images of the area, the creek is depicted as a dotted line - generally indicating that foot wide, six inch deep type of creek CMStPnP describes. Hardly more than a drainage ditch.
News images show something better described as a small lake.
The undercutting would seem to me to be a real possibility, and given the rising water, and the rain, something the crew may not have been able to see.
I actually live in the Dallas area, let me correct a few misunderstandings in this thread. First please read my responses to a duplicate thread where this is already being discussed:
http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/111/p/251256/2804855.aspx#2804855
Second, no high winds with the storm, I have sunflowers growing in the back that would have been uprooted if there were high winds when I was asleep. The rain was slow and steady. Flash floods happen rapidly in North Texas because it has an expansive black clay soil that once it gets wet expands and closes off further water absorbtion. This is why most houses here do not have basements but are built on concrete "floating" slabs. Once the soil gets saturated and expands flash floods happen very, very rapidly with little predictability where they are going to hit.
I grew up in the Midwest and frequently hear the less informed people up there yell at the TV sets about folks in Texas and how stupid people are to drive through standing water. When in most cases the standing water was probably not there when the driver started to cross. In a matter of 5-7 min I have seen a creek near my home go from a small trickle maybe a foot across and 6 inch deep to a raging torrent 20 feet deep and at least 70 feet or so wide. This is not an exaggeration and it actually happens that fast. It does not even have to be raining in the immediate area for this to happen. Just has to happen in the watershed somewhere up stream. I got caught in a life endangering flash flood once down here on a innocent drive to DFW airport. They were doing construction along the freeway and plugged a number of the drainage culverts. Luckily I was in a 4x4. Nevertheless the water rose from zero to about the midwheel hub on the 4x4 in a matter of min after a cloudburst, one of the off ramps looked like a whitewater rafting ride it had so much water pouring down it.......just an example. Mother Nature is still in control even with the best engineering of man.
In this case the Locomotive Engineer reported to the press he saw the water rising towards the roadbed rapidly as he approached and it was then he put the train in emergency. Likely the water was not over the rails at that point. The offending creek that was flooding runs right along the railbed in parallel fashion so also possible the railbed was undercut already as the water was rising which caused the derailment. So not dispatch fault and not Engineer's fault. This stuff happens in Texas and is largely unavoidable unless you halt all traffic when it rains in the state.
Plans are made based on design and experience.
Sometimes other things intervene. The new beaver family in the area plugs up a key culvert - or maybe a tree (dead or otherwise) floats downstream and plugs a culvert.
Add that to a large amount of rain and suddenly an unforeseen incident occurs.
I haven't seen much on the incident, and it's unlikely that beavers figured in, but I would have to opine that UP took everything into consideration and didn't foresee that specific set of circumstances. It's possible that creek has never flooded to the extent it did.
Just a couple of thoughts on this OP.
Both UPRR and BNSF and I guess, probably, CSX and NS have large dispatch offices from whch the majority of their operations are overseen(?)
As always WEATHER can be problematic to their operations at various times across their systems. Larger Operations Centers will, have access to National News and Weather resources within their Operational areas.
They just do not sit around waiting for some weather-related calamity to strike; Proactivity is the best way to manage their risks. Each Operation will handle their own resources to protect their customer's and their equipment and employees.
I would bet some of the professionals that do post around here can put their own experiences with critical weather related operational situations (?)
Further, I would expect that many railroads are most likely self insured up to the point they feel they can budget for, while brokering out to various large insurance carriers additional coverages they might feel will allow them to handle effectively their risk exposure.
According to a National News broadcast yesterday, the UPRR train was loaded with cement(?). Apparently, when the locomotives hit a washed out section of track, and rolled It caused approximately twenty-odd cars to lay over in the flooding waters; The two crew members were noted to have swum away from the engines, according to the broadcaster.
A couple of years back, here in our area a UP train on the old RI heading to Wichita, rolled out onto a river bridge and the engineer stopped the train as the locomotive hit the sagging brdge; the two crewmen rand back alomh the locomotive ganways and escaped any harm. The locomotives were eventually pulled backward off the bridge, repairs were made.
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