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Possible delay for Pannama canal expansion

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Possible delay for Pannama canal expansion
Posted by blue streak 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2015 3:52 AM

Test of concrete wall and locks disclosed many water leaks.  Core samples disclosed too much air in concrete.  Could it be not enough vibration done to get air out ?  Unconfirmed that contractor is same one that produced defective ties for Amtrak ?  This may delay the Panamax container traffic for a while ?

http://gcaptain.com/a-concrete-sample-was-pulled-from-the-new-panama-canal-locks-and-it-does-not-look-good/#.VeLBXWBRGhx

Another read that expansion not going to be the gold mine some expect especially RRs.

https://www.amcham-shanghai.org/NR/rdonlyres/623F95B8-0CE6-4730-9682-0C11101662FB/21262/3INDUSTRYUPDATE1.pdf

 

 

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Sunday, August 30, 2015 5:53 AM

Streak,

Just as the original Panama Canal diverted traffic and depressed rail rates, a new one will do the same. The railroad industry will NOT benefit from a bigger better canal.

Mac

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Posted by ALEXANDER WOOD on Sunday, August 30, 2015 10:36 AM

PNWRMNM

Streak,

Just as the original Panama Canal diverted traffic and depressed rail rates, a new one will do the same. The railroad industry will NOT benefit from a bigger better canal.

Mac

Be careful with the blanket statements. Some eastern roads might benefit. The western roads definitely will not.

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Posted by erikem on Sunday, August 30, 2015 1:19 PM

After looking at the picture of the core sample - WOW! That's a lot of air for concrete that is supposed to be watertight. I'd wonder if the contractor even used vibration.

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, August 30, 2015 2:02 PM

I am amazed that they poured that much concrete without testing it.

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, August 30, 2015 2:09 PM

Looking at the core sample as well as the viedo of the leaking - looks like a 'substitute concrete foreman' worked for a period of time, as all the leaking appears to be on the same plane - indicative of a day's or week's concrete pour having gone wrong.

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Posted by samfp1943 on Sunday, August 30, 2015 2:51 PM

Euclid

I am amazed that they poured that much concrete without testing it.

 

Since the Carter Admin gave the Panama Canal over to the "Administration" of the Panamanian Government in 1977.  You can bet that through attrition of the for US/Panamanian work force, the 'New' workforce is probably not as well-trained as it had been prior to the change in leadership ( Panamian), This "New" ( and larger canal) was planned starting back in the 1930 and parts were conceived and constructed in the 1940's.  The 'New' Canal ( The 3rd) was partially constructed using some of those facilities.  The Canal was 'pushed' towards completion, shortcuts were probably made (?) and do not forget that when the 'turnorer ' was announced there was a big uproar about the Chinese Company " Hutchinson-Whampoa" being included within the Corporate structure of the Panama Canal Authority. At that time there was speculation that because of the Chinese involvment that possibly their was some speculation that at some levels the Chinese and Chinese Army would have some involvment in the future of the Panama Canal(?). My 2 Cents

 

 

 


 

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Posted by dakotafred on Sunday, August 30, 2015 8:12 PM

Euclid

I am amazed that they poured that much concrete without testing it.

Can you say, 'Third World'?

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Posted by Wizlish on Sunday, August 30, 2015 9:05 PM

dakotafred
Euclid

I am amazed that they poured that much concrete without testing it.

Can you say, 'Third World'?

Three-quarters of GUPC is very European (Spanish, Italian, Belgian).

Here is an article that covers some of the technical details involved.

I think the conslusion is inescapable, though, that no few lifts of concrete were not adequately supervised; the 'special' concrete shouldn't show any voids at all, even at small scale (the specs call for zero saltwater infiltration to the rebar even after 100 years).

Hope their insurance terms were properly written ... and their insurers had a good investment portfolio!

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Posted by dakotafred on Monday, August 31, 2015 6:51 AM

Wizlish
 
dakotafred
Euclid

I am amazed that they poured that much concrete without testing it.

Can you say, 'Third World'?

 

Three-quarters of GUPC is very European (Spanish, Italian, Belgian).

 

Who cares? They're the contractor, not the owner. (I realize bad contractors come in all nationalities.) The owner has final responsibility for oversight and acceptance of all work.

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, August 31, 2015 7:31 AM

Wizlish
dakotafred
Euclid

I am amazed that they poured that much concrete without testing it.

Can you say, 'Third World'?

 

Three-quarters of GUPC is very European (Spanish, Italian, Belgian).

While overall project management may be European, I suspect most of the work force and 1st level supervision are Central American - with all the good and bad that Central America connotes.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, August 31, 2015 9:11 AM

In reading the first link, the scale of the job, and the concrete production and handling process sounds like quite the technical challenge.  I am not surprised that they made a mistake.  There will probably be more big mistakes before it is finished.  

Lab
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Posted by Lab on Monday, August 31, 2015 3:47 PM

Writing specs is easy. Meeting them is another story.

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Posted by groomer man on Monday, August 31, 2015 9:41 PM

Hasn't structures bigger and subjected to more pressures been built before and stood the test of time example being dams. And that looks like patches in some places. Maybe somebody with experience could weigh in

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Posted by Falcon48 on Thursday, September 3, 2015 11:56 PM

ALEXANDER WOOD

 

 
PNWRMNM

Streak,

Just as the original Panama Canal diverted traffic and depressed rail rates, a new one will do the same. The railroad industry will NOT benefit from a bigger better canal.

Mac

 

Be careful with the blanket statements. Some eastern roads might benefit. The western roads definitely will not.

 

ALEXANDER WOOD

 

 
PNWRMNM

Streak,

Just as the original Panama Canal diverted traffic and depressed rail rates, a new one will do the same. The railroad industry will NOT benefit from a bigger better canal.

Mac

 

Be careful with the blanket statements. Some eastern roads might benefit. The western roads definitely will not.

 

 I agree western railroads won't "benefit" from the Panama Canal expansion.  But I want to make the same point I've made before.  It isn't nearly as evident as you may think that the project will hurt western railroads to any significant extent.

Now, why would I say such a thing?  Isn't it obvious that the canal will allow large containerships to go through the canal and avoid the rail move from west coast? Well, yes, but consider this.  The ship transit time to use the canal rather than just go to a west coast port will be two to three times as much as the transit time required to serve a west coast port.  That means a shipping company will need two to three times the number of vessels for the same volume of traffic to operate through the canal than they would need if they just did a west coast shuttle.  Ships are expensive build and operate. It is this consideration that has led many containership operators to avoid calls on multiple west coast ports - its better to turn the ship quickly and go back for another load than to have the ship tied up serving multiple ports.  The same consideration woul seem to apply to canal service.

So, the question becomes whether the additional revenue a steamship company might be able to earn by going through the canal and cutting out the rail move from the west coast will be sufficient to justify the costs of the additional ships required to provide this service. I doubt that it would in most cases. The cap on the additional revenue the steamship company would get is the inland shipping cost that's avoided.  Now, with shipments destined to customer at or near east or gulf coast ports served by the ship, there may be a lot a inland shipping costs that are avoided. But that's not true of the many shipments that go inland - you just end up substituting a rail move from the east coast for a rail move from the west coast  It's also not true for shipments to east and gulf coast ports not called on by the company's ships (the company could try to minimize the inland costs by having its ships call on multiple ports, but that would cause its transit times - and its need for ships - to balloon).  That doesn't leave the steamship company much room for a higher rate to justify the additional ships needed to bypass west coast ports and go through the canal.

Bottom line.  I don't think the canal is going to be the bonanza its promoters are hoping for or the threat to western railroads that's feared. We shall see.  

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Posted by ALEXANDER WOOD on Monday, September 14, 2015 5:11 PM

Falcon48
 I agree western railroads won't "benefit" from the Panama Canal expansion.  But I want to make the same point I've made before.  It isn't nearly as evident as you may think that the project will hurt western railroads to any significant extent.

Including the costs of the ships, moving containers by ship is cheaper than by rail, which is cheaper than truck.

That being said, while this will NOT benefit the western railroads, I doubt it will hurt that much either. The supply chains are set up a certain way, lots of stuff moves to the Midwest, much of which will stay coming into the west coast ports. Any traffic they lose may make a dent in, but won't collapse the ever-growing intermodal market.

The only argument I might see for why the Panama canal doesn't matter as much is that even the new one is still smaller than the largest container ships, which are likely marginally cheaper than the new Panamax ships, but I doubt this is that significant.

The one market segment that may totally lose is stuff going to Europe that goes overland in the US, but I don't think it's that much of a market in the first place. Or maybe it's still faster to run over the rails in the US and back onto a ship to Europe.

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Posted by MidlandMike on Tuesday, September 15, 2015 8:39 PM

An NBC News stort tonight on the Artic meling ice, talks about Artic Ocean shipping.

"Dozens of commercial ships now traverse the Northwest Passage connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Using the route, which skirts the top of Alaska and Canada, is estimated to be 30 percent cheaper than hauling goods via the Panama Canal."

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/where-u-s-race-arctic-n425831

 

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, September 15, 2015 10:47 PM

MidlandMike

An NBC News stort tonight on the Artic meling ice, talks about Artic Ocean shipping.

"Dozens of commercial ships now traverse the Northwest Passage connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Using the route, which skirts the top of Alaska and Canada, is estimated to be 30 percent cheaper than hauling goods via the Panama Canal."

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/where-u-s-race-arctic-n425831

When you don't get caught in the ice during the winter.

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Posted by rrnut282 on Thursday, September 17, 2015 3:55 PM

I believe the Russians have plenty of ice breakers if the shippers want to make a slight detour on the other side of the North Pole. 

Mike (2-8-2)
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Posted by carnej1 on Friday, September 18, 2015 11:18 AM

rrnut282

I believe the Russians have plenty of ice breakers if the shippers want to make a slight detour on the other side of the North Pole. 

 

 Actually it would seem that the Shipping industry isn't that optimistic about the Northwest Passage as a Pacific-to-Atlantic container shipping route, at least for the forseeable future. So perhaps maybe the railroad industry doesn't have much to worry about regarding that potential competition :

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/10/why-the-northwest-passage-probably-wont-be-ready-for-shipping-any-time-soon/

 

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