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What is going to happen to all those oil trains with a worldwide glut of oil?

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What is going to happen to all those oil trains with a worldwide glut of oil?
Posted by greyhounds on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 4:05 PM

With the price of crude oil down 26% since June I wonder what the effect on CBR will be?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102084062

 

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 4:40 PM

Depends on the extraction costs for Bakken.  If higher than other sources, get ready for asteep decline in CBR traffic.  Crude oil futures settled down 4.6 percent at $81.84 today.  In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the IEA, the Paris-based energy watchdog cut its forecast for 2014 oil-demand growth by 200,000 barrels a day to just 700,000 barrels a day.

 

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 4:56 PM

South Georgia has had a 60 cent decline in gasoline since Aug 1st to last Saturday.  We are a little slower here with only a 40 cent drop.

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Posted by caldreamer on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 5:01 PM

As predicted we are coming to the point of being energy indepentdent.  By the end of next year wr will be able to tell the arabs and these weirdos in Venesuala where they can shove their oil.  Its about  tiem and "I LOVE IT".

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 5:04 PM

Time to restock the strategic oil reserve ? ?

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Posted by NorthWest on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 5:28 PM

May ease the perdicted tank car shortage?

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 6:19 PM

caldreamer

As predicted we are coming to the point of being energy indepentdent.  By the end of next year wr will be able to tell the arabs and these weirdos in Venesuala where they can shove their oil.  Its about  tiem and "I LOVE IT".

 

  Only as long as domestic produced oil is less money than imported foreign oil.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 6:22 PM

greyhounds

With the price of crude oil down 26% since June I wonder what the effect on CBR will be?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102084062

 

 

  As always seems to be the case, something will happen in the middle east to cause a panic and prices will go back up.

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Posted by SALfan on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 7:05 PM

blue streak 1

South Georgia has had a 60 cent decline in gasoline since Aug 1st to last Saturday.  We are a little slower here with only a 40 cent drop.

 

Bought gas Sunday morning in Statesboro for $2.99/gallon, and that was without any kind of loyalty card.  Other stations in the area were selling gas at that price, too.  From Moultrie north on Friday, saw several places where gas was $3.02 to $3.07 per gallon.

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Posted by Leo_Ames on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 7:26 PM

caldreamer

As predicted we are coming to the point of being energy indepentdent.  By the end of next year wr will be able to tell the arabs and these weirdos in Venesuala where they can shove their oil.  Its about  tiem and "I LOVE IT".

 

Last I saw it, we still imported 1/3 of our oil. So I rather doubt it although it's certainly better off than a few years ago.

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Posted by jrbernier on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 7:38 PM

  Closing prices today(14th) were 81.84 for WTI, and 85.04 for Brent crude oil.  The key here is what Brent(North Sea Oil) is selling for delived to the east coast of the US.  If the Bakken oil producers can make money pricing their rail delivered product just below the Brent price, they will keep getting contracts.  Typically, the Bakken producers are adding about $3/barrel shipping cost to their product.

  Selling US oil/gas to offshore buyers is going to be big business  for all US producers.

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Posted by poppyl on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 7:56 PM

Sometime during the last couple of days I read somewhere that $80/bbl is the estimated price point below which at least some wells in the Bakken become unprofitable and shut-ins could begin.  But this would not happen overnight as producers would continue pumping until they were sure that proces would stay down long enough to warrant shutting wells.  FYI, Eagle Ford and tar sands oil have lower breakeven points than does Bakken.  

There's also the issue of refining capacity and ability to mix Bakken light with heavier oils that could influence spot prices and ultimately, tank car demand.

This is much more complicated that just the price of a barrel of oil, IMO.

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Posted by dknelson on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 8:18 PM

We're so darn grateful for gas around $3 a gallon!   Like the frog in the frying pan it is amazing what we can get used to.

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Posted by jclass on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 9:15 PM

Pocket the savings.  Don't burn more fuel because it's cheaper.

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Posted by MP173 on Wednesday, October 15, 2014 7:33 AM

US consumption is flat.  Europe consumption is down 5%.  China, Korea, and Asian consumption is flat.  Thus, there is no increased demand for oil at this time.

Meanwhile the US production is increasing dramatically.  Since the US consumption is flat we are reducing our imports.  With European consumption down, and imports down to US, the Saudis recently dropped contract prices to Europe in order to retain market share.

Meanwhile Texas production is increasing with no available infrastructure to move the extra oil to market, at least until January at the earliest.  Thus, there is a glut of oil and prices are dropping for WTI.

We have a legislative restriction on exporting oil which should be addressed.  Meanwhile we are sitting on huge oil reserves not only in the continental US but also ANWAR in Alaska.  

The word is we have just a little bit of natural gas too.  

Some say we are poised for an industrial revolution of sorts.

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, October 15, 2014 8:42 AM
Is this a good thing or a bad thing?  Are oil prices down because we have ramped up production—or—are oil prices down because of falling demand in a weakening world economy?  In terms of the later explanation, falling oil demand could be the canary in the coal mine. 
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Posted by carnej1 on Wednesday, October 15, 2014 11:04 AM

Well, it will certainly put a damper on "bring back coal fired steam locomotives"  threads here on the Forum...(insert emoticon here)

 

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Posted by Deggesty on Wednesday, October 15, 2014 12:10 PM

[quote user="carnej1"]

Well, it will certainly put a damper on "bring back coal fired steam locomotives"  threads here on the Forum...(insert emoticon here)

 

 

[/quote]"insert...." Are you inviting us to choose the emoticons that we think fit the report?

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Posted by MP173 on Wednesday, October 15, 2014 1:31 PM

If you have a job, make that a secure job, the lower oil prices are good.  If you dont have a job, then the lower prices are good also.

But, the markets seem to be saying there is a lack of growth right now...all we need is another recession.

I know the cafe standards for cars have helped.  My SUV scoots around at 26mpg vs 15mpg for the Jeep.  That is a nice saving.  Meanwhile I see NS and CSX running second sections of many intermodal trains...so things must be good.

 

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Posted by overall on Thursday, October 16, 2014 1:01 PM

Heard on NPR that Saudi Arabia is keeping their production up in order to keep their market share even though the price is down.

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Posted by Boyd on Thursday, October 16, 2014 7:43 PM
Also heard on the radio is that non OPEC countries are having a price war against OPEC countries. Confirmed in the summer of 2013 is a deposit of shale oil in NW Colorado and adjoining Utah THREE TIMES the known amount of oil in the rest of the world. Some oil companies that have been operating in the Bakken field are selling their wells and are now in NW Colorado.
February of 2011 within one week of each other I heard two callers to two different radio shows and stations refer to a well drilled in Alaska in the early 70s under a lease through the U.S. govt. The well struck oil and that well produced massive pressure readings. The company reported back to the U.S. govt and the govt told them to cap the well and didn't allow oil recovery. The U.S. govt classified the information of this well.

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, October 16, 2014 7:48 PM

Made a round trip from the East Coast to Topeka during the past week.  Saw a number of drilling rigs in Southwest PA, Southeast OH and all along I-70 in Illinois.  Gas or Oil I don't know, but having made this trip yearly for the past 9 years it is the first time I have noted a plethora of drilling equipment rather than mining equipment on the highways.

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Posted by MidlandMike on Thursday, October 16, 2014 9:59 PM

Softening of crude oil prices and uncertainty about demand would seem to have two conflicting effects on crude-by-rail.  Uncertainty would make the oil companies leary of signing long term contracts to get a pipeline built.  On the other hand, companies which were shipping at the higher rail prices, may look for cheper pipeline options.

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Posted by daveklepper on Friday, October 17, 2014 3:49 AM

does not moving oil depend even more on who uses it than who prodouces it?   so i think the railroads have a pretty stable market.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Friday, October 17, 2014 7:42 AM

Boyd

February of 2011 within one week of each other I heard two callers to two different radio shows and stations refer to a well drilled in Alaska in the early 70s under a lease through the U.S. govt. The well struck oil and that well produced massive pressure readings. The company reported back to the U.S. govt and the govt told them to cap the well and didn't allow oil recovery. The U.S. govt classified the information of this well.
 

     Holy cow!  Batman!  Was that done by the same government agency that confiscated the car that gets 100 miles per gallon???  I've heard the same tall tail about the oil well- except it was in Wyoming, and Texas, and the Gulf Coast, and a grassy knoll in Dallas...Mischief

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Posted by Euclid on Friday, October 17, 2014 8:28 AM
From the news, it appears that the oil glut is due mostly to falling demand rather than rising supply.  So while the glut is reducing price, a good thing; the glut is due to a slowing world economy, a bad thing. 
If the world economy were in good shape, and if the glut were due only to our rising production, that would be a very good thing.
It will be interesting to watch how our production is affected by the dropping demand.  Our production should normally fall, but in the midst of the current ramp-up, there may be a reluctance to rein in all the expansion that is underway.  The response of Saudi Arabia seems to be directed at further forcing the price down to put downward pressure on our production. 
So cheaper gasoline is one little silver lining on an otherwise very troubling economic picture. 
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Posted by Deggesty on Friday, October 17, 2014 11:25 AM

Murphy Siding
 
Boyd

February of 2011 within one week of each other I heard two callers to two different radio shows and stations refer to a well drilled in Alaska in the early 70s under a lease through the U.S. govt. The well struck oil and that well produced massive pressure readings. The company reported back to the U.S. govt and the govt told them to cap the well and didn't allow oil recovery. The U.S. govt classified the information of this well.
 

 

 

     Holy cow!  Batman!  Was that done by the same government agency that confiscated the car that gets 100 miles per gallon???  I've heard the same tall tail about the oil well- except it was in Wyoming, and Texas, and the Gulf Coast, and a grassy knoll in Dallas...Mischief

 

 

Norse,oops, Norris, is that the same government agency that would like us to have cars that get 200 mpg--and charge us an extremely high tax on a gallon of gasoline?

I do miss the spell Czech; I have to read my posts twice before I submit them.

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Posted by edblysard on Friday, October 17, 2014 3:58 PM
Yup,
Same government that confiscated the 100 mpg carburetor back in 1975…..

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Posted by erikem on Friday, October 17, 2014 4:58 PM

Heinlein's The Man Who Sold the Moon compilation had a reference to a 70 mpg carburetor ca 1941, so the story has been around a long time.

Large recooverable reserves from the Unita basin may be a bit more credible, especiallt with Utah wanting to build a rail line there - with a much better profle than the previous rail line. Mischief

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Posted by MidlandMike on Friday, October 17, 2014 9:40 PM

daveklepper

does not moving oil depend even more on who uses it than who prodouces it?   so i think the railroads have a pretty stable market.

 

The users of crude oil are the refiners.  They generally buy at a delivered price.  The moving of crude oil is up to the crude shippers (a middleman) who may be associated with refiners, producers, or independent.  Crude oil markets have no stability past their latest contract.

The greatest impact of a dramatic drop in crude prices is the curtailing of exploration.  The big crude-by-rail fields are recent discoveries (ND and Tex/NM).  Older established fields generally have pipelines.  However, oil gluts tend to be just temporary. 

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