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What if Yellowstone erupted?

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What if Yellowstone erupted?
Posted by Boyd on Saturday, August 2, 2014 2:30 AM

Nobody knows when it will blow, 6 months or 10,000 years from now. But what if earthquakes became much more frequent and the ground at the Yellowstone caldera started to rise? Would it be worth it to try to move rolling stock to other parts of the US? Besides millions of people and their health,, access to a huge deposit of oil under NW Colorado and Utah, plus PRB coal would probably be cut off.

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Posted by Kyle on Saturday, August 2, 2014 5:21 AM

Forget the coal, it is said that it would cover the western half of the country in volcanic ash, bring down any plane that flies in the ash.  It could kill millions if they breath it in.  Tracks would be buried, and the air filters on locomotives would get clogged.  I would guess that the government would use every Amtrack trains filled as full as possible to evacuate people, and may also use rolling stock like boxcars to evacuate people if the situation would be bad enough.  It would be a major disaster.  Let's hope that day won't come anytime soon.

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Saturday, August 2, 2014 6:11 AM

If that sucker blows it will dramatically alter life as you know it.  That said, there are no signs that it is in the near future, and we have other actual problems which need our attention.

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Posted by gardendance on Saturday, August 2, 2014 6:57 AM

What's so special about Yellowstone vs any of the other US volcanoes. Mt St Helens, which did erupt with lots of economic and some human loss, is a lot closer to Portland and Seattle than I imagine Yellowstone is to any big cities, and somehow we did not experience the Rapture in 1980.

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Posted by CShaveRR on Saturday, August 2, 2014 7:13 AM

Yellowstone is not your typical volcano on a mountain peak.  The entire Yellowstone area is the caldera of a supervolcano, and if it were to erupt it would make Mt. St. Helens look like a pimple.  They categorize the damage in a 500-mile radius as "devastation", within a 100-mile radius as "annihilation".  

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Posted by Randy Stahl on Saturday, August 2, 2014 7:16 AM

If Yellowstone blew... human caused global warming would be irrelevant....

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Posted by gardendance on Saturday, August 2, 2014 7:28 AM

Is that like how when we want a time machine is irrelevant?

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Saturday, August 2, 2014 7:41 AM

gardendance

What's so special about Yellowstone vs any of the other US volcanoes.

In a word size. For a rough comparison St. Helens would be as a fire cracker and Yellowstone would be as a nuclear bomb. Assuming normal winds, most crops between at least the Mississippi River and the Rocky Mountains would be lost due to ash fall. New Yorkers would experience huge food price increases. Surface transportation would take weeks or months to recover. Removing the ash would be far worse than removing snow.

That said, there are plenty of more probable disasters to be concerned about.

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Posted by NorthWest on Saturday, August 2, 2014 1:19 PM

This falls under the "bigger problems" category. IIRC, the ash would block out the sun for a few years.

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Saturday, August 2, 2014 1:33 PM

NorthWest

This falls under the "bigger problems" category. IIRC, the ash would block out the sun for a few years.

True, and it would induce several years of global cooling relative to what the trend would have otherwise been.

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Posted by erikem on Saturday, August 2, 2014 1:49 PM

PNWRMNM

That said, there are plenty of more probable disasters to be concerned about.

I'd put the probability of an eruption as one out of 100,000 to 500,000 per year. Pretty sure that we would have some warning of an imminent eruption as what happened with Mt St Helens.

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Posted by Boyd on Saturday, August 2, 2014 2:12 PM
I recently read that they think it could erupt for 10 years and effect the world climate for 100 years. It's 1000 miles directly west of me.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Saturday, August 2, 2014 2:39 PM

    Tourism would take a big hit.  Whistling

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Posted by Semper Vaporo on Saturday, August 2, 2014 2:47 PM

Need to define "erupt" to know if it would be a problem... if it were an equivalent percentage of the total area as what happened Mt. St. Helens, then, yeah... big problem... but volcanoes erupt on Hawaii all the time and all they do is add to the island.  More of a tourist attraction than a major catastrophe.

Semper Vaporo

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Posted by edblysard on Saturday, August 2, 2014 3:26 PM

Yogi and Boo Boo would have to move?

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Posted by NorthWest on Saturday, August 2, 2014 3:32 PM

With the constant several-years-long winter and ash fall, grain shuttle trains would also take a hit. Of course, that diesel is probably more useful in trying to survive...

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Posted by Kyle on Saturday, August 2, 2014 3:36 PM

Semper Vaporo

Need to define "erupt" to know if it would be a problem... if it were an equivalent percentage of the total area as what happened Mt. St. Helens, then, yeah... big problem... but volcanoes erupt on Hawaii all the time and all they do is add to the island.  More of a tourist attraction than a major catastrophe.

On the Big Island, the volcanos slowly release lava which results in lava flows, that don't move fast.  They burn huge stretches of land and turn it all into black lava rock.  Most volcanos on the main land don't have lava flows.  Instead the lava and gas is trap inside, an pressure builds until it blows.  It is like filling a ballon with a hole versus a ballon without a hole.  When you fill them the hole will vent the contents do it would completely fIll while the ballon without the hole will fill until it blows. 

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Posted by garr on Saturday, August 2, 2014 3:36 PM

Buy stock in an emergency preparedness company ;-)

I imagine the railroads would be more concerned with getting the product moved and shifting what assets could be moved along with the loaded trains. Priority of assets moved would probably be based on value of asset and need. For example MOW equipment might be first to move to outlying(or projected unaffected)  ROW of affected railroad before the mass evacuation of locos and rolling stock. This would allow the railroad recovery to take place from less to most affected areas. Plus the employees would be able to actually get to the MOW equipment.

However, as stated, railroads would not be high on the list of concerns immediately after a major eruption. As some have predicted this could be a dinosaur extinction type of experience--not immediately, but a slow, staving type of experience due to the low world wide temps, low light, and ash cover over the major farming areas on the US. Thus my half joking statement about buying stock in emergency preparedness companies, however, for anyone concerned with this type event, the serious comment would be to buy the product of the emergency preparedness company as the long shelf life food and water would be far more valuable than any financial stock.

Jay

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Saturday, August 2, 2014 4:01 PM

It is apparent that several of our members don't understand the super volcano that is currently powering the Yellowstone Park.  However no one seems to believe that an eruption is coming in the near future.  Well; no one but the usual conspiracy theorists.

Dave

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Posted by ValorStorm on Saturday, August 2, 2014 4:25 PM

A few of these posts evidence that some have done their homework. B+ for you. Here's the extra credit:

The dome is always rising, in baby steps. Increased incidence of earthquakes is definitely a concern, irrespective of an eruption. But even in the case of the Yellowstone Supervolcano, earthquakes are quite localized. Mainline railroading hasn't been interrupted, & isn't likely to be. It's too far away.

Now for "Geology 101". There are 3 types of volcano: "Cinder Cones" which are ~ 400 ft high. These can be found around St George Utah. They are not going to grow into full-size volcanoes. In fact, they're completely dead.

"Andesite" volcanoes: These are the triangle shaped ones, typified by Mt Shasta, Mt Hood, Mt Fuji, & yes, Mt St Helens. 'Nuff said.

"Rhyolite" volcanoes: The indisputably, irrefutably, most massive of all. & Yellowstone is considered the biggest of the big (as the NPs once were). Make no mistake. If Yellowstone erupts, people on other continents will be too busy with their own survival to feel sorry for North Americans.

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Posted by caldreamer on Saturday, August 2, 2014 5:57 PM

Basically, "Bend over and kill your self good bye"..  Yellowstone is a 30 X 50 mile wide super volcano.  When it goes off and it is overdue.  It will result in a world wide ice age according to the scientists that talked about it on a Science channel program.  It is so huge that the ash and gas that it would throw up would be catastrophic. 

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Posted by edblysard on Saturday, August 2, 2014 6:16 PM

Well,

Since we are all going to die when Yellowstone erupts, I think we should all go buy/acquire as much spray paint as we can…I know where there is going to be a bunch of covered hoppers just begging to….

Stick out tongue

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Posted by efftenxrfe on Saturday, August 2, 2014 7:34 PM

The intense concentration of these comments on railroad aspects is amazing, but, like the comments, I digress...

Another threat, not as big, that we could quiver with fear about is the Mammoth Lake, of California. Land rising was reported years ago, 3 to 5" a year.

I remember reading that Mammoth Lake, in actuality, is a caldera.

Then, too worry, worry, worry about, there's New Madrid and the San Andreas fault....worry, worry.... 





 

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Posted by seppburgh2 on Saturday, August 2, 2014 7:57 PM

Either the Science Channel or History Channel had a documentary examining exactly this topic.  Yellow stone is a caldera or super volcano that has the risk of ending civilization as we know it. The Si-Fi Channel even did a made for TV movie on the eruption. 


Getting back on topic, with a Big Boy coming back, can a Yellowstone be far behind?  Now THAT would be an eruption! 

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Posted by ramrod on Saturday, August 2, 2014 8:50 PM

True enough if it goes off in one big bang. It's also just as likely to blow just enough to relieve the pressure and then go back to sleep, much like some of the major seismic faults do. Or there could be a number of minor eruptions across the caldera that wouldn't be particularly terrible except to the gusts at the Yellowstone Inn and the Park Rangers. By and large, explosive eruptions are rare though the can occur and can be especially devastating. so  I wouldn't hold my breath expecting to see the end of civilization.

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Posted by MidlandMike on Saturday, August 2, 2014 9:29 PM

A super eruption which happens every 6000,000 years is not likely to sneak up on us.  Yellowstone is heavily monitored.  I think we would know by now if an eruption was likely within any of our lifetimes.

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Posted by wanswheel on Sunday, August 3, 2014 12:16 AM

Volcano Questions & Answers

Q: How much advance notice would there be of an eruption?

A: The science of forecasting a volcanic eruption has significantly advanced over the past 25 years. Most scientists think that the buildup preceding a catastrophic eruption would be detectable for weeks and perhaps months to years...

Q: What is Yellowstone doing to prevent an eruption?

http://www.nps.gov/yell/naturescience/volcanoqa.htm

 

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Posted by Boyd on Sunday, August 3, 2014 12:17 AM
Toba is the biggest one and is about 2.5 times bigger that Yellowstone. It is a live volcano but not near an eruption.

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Posted by I C Rider on Sunday, August 3, 2014 2:27 AM
It is more likely that the San Andreas Fault would make the Nevada desert prime beachfront property before Yellowstone erupts. The thing is not if either is going to happen but when. As human population grows the more devastating the effects will be. Our economy and railroads will be the least of our worries. Just plain survival will be difficult. We are catching the dickens right now with all this abnormal weather. If Yellowstone erupt and causes the San Andreas Fault to activate our country will probably go bankrupt and maybe even cease to exist!
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Posted by I C Rider on Sunday, August 3, 2014 2:31 AM
If we can predict when Yellowstone is going to erupt what are we going to do? It will, according to what I've read will have a catastrophic effect on the climate worldwide. It won't be pretty, I'll guarantee.

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