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Thoroughly Debunking Maglev Myths

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Posted by gardendance on Friday, November 29, 2013 2:55 PM

chutton01
In other news, one of the first commercial Maglev systems built, a people mover at Birmingham UK airport, was replaced by A CABLE CAR system a decade ago (AirRail Link) :)


Are you sure the Birmingham installation which
http://www.birminghamairport.co.uk/meta/news/2010/11/maglev-news-article.aspx
had a top speed of 26 mph

is anything like the high speed maglevs I think we're talking about in this thread?
narig01
The reason light rail can go 30 million a mile is the build happens in built up urban areas. The costs add up very quickly when you have to relocate utilities, repave streets, and build structure to accommodate existing infrastructure. With steel rail on open Terrain the cost comes down considerably.

Although that makes sense, I have often heard that my favorite real world example, NJT Riverline, was $1billion for 34 miles, which is pretty close to 30 million per mile. But it's diesel and uses existing right of way with steel rail on open terrain for all but a fraction of its route.

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Posted by parlordome on Friday, November 29, 2013 12:17 PM

Thanks, and I do get all that. But roads were not that different and in some ways worse off (e.g. trains had and had to have precedence wherever the two crossed, and were and are less energy-consuming and less pollution-producing per ton or person moved). Tax money and shenanigans such as the auto industry's destruction of the interurban network made the difference in significant ways, again despite the 24-lanes (versus 2 tracks re capacity) of aerial Interstate removing everything in its path or making life under or near it only acceptable by the poor, of necessity.

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, November 29, 2013 5:49 AM

parlordome

"The large majority of railroad infrastructure is woefully outdated" is a strange statement in the sense that road infrastructure, e.g., has been around longer than railroad but tax money kept upgrading it despite the land grabs needed (compare double-track rail capacity to 24-lane highway). Railroad right-of-way predates much city development, whereas highways (and maglev) have to demolish it.

In all fairness, part of what he means is that a significant amount of railroad infrastructure was optimized for things very different from modern high-speed transportation.  For example, it may have excessive curvature to minimize grades or to follow watercourses; it may wander to access then-important communities or resource areas that may no longer be relevant; it may have inadequate subgrade or maintenance.  Those things often will make it 'woefully' inadequate for high-speed service, even with careful track-geometry upkeep, tilting trains, etc.

There are relatively few examples of railroads explicitly designed from the outset for high speed, and most of them did not succeed.  The Chicago-New York Electric Air Line Railroad comes to mind; I was told that there is an abandoned near-'air line' grading in Louisiana and Mississippi for high-speed north-south service.  The 'catch' is that any high-speed railroad is inherently a bridge line, and bridge lines that are newly constructed need VERY deep pockets the whole time they're being built, and then until sufficient traffic develops, and then to cover any period where traffic drops for any reason.  Even nominally high-speed railroads like the PRR New York Division had a number of very slow sections and other compromises; a couple of great common-sense improvements like the electrification of the Middle Division and the tunnel under the Horseshoe Curve were (for a combination of reasons, admittedly) not implemented despite the great increase in capacity they would have provided.

I do have to say that I wish this thread would move beyond Daryl Oster.

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Posted by parlordome on Friday, November 29, 2013 12:20 AM

"The large majority of railroad infrastructure is woefully outdated" is a strange statement in the sense that road infrastructure, e.g., has been around longer than railroad but tax money kept upgrading it despite the land grabs needed (compare double-track rail capacity to 24-lane highway). Railroad right-of-way predates much city development, whereas highways (and maglev) have to demolish it.

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Posted by Falcon48 on Wednesday, November 27, 2013 11:22 PM

ndbprr
How well will mag lev operate when lightning hits or the power goes out?

 And, how will a Maglev operate in ice or snow?  As I understand the technology, it is dependent on the vehicle being levitated above the guideway by a magnetic field.  The distance between the vehicle and the guideway structure is less than an inch, which even a little ice or snow would fill.  

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Posted by narig01 on Wednesday, November 27, 2013 6:14 PM
This was in the New Times last week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/19/business/international/japan-pitches-americans-on-its-maglev-train.html

The estimate 100 billion for roughly 300 miles. Or in dollars per mile over 300 million a mile. I would think this is an all in figure including trainsets. I can see why Japan is balking at building this. Japan already has a very good network in their Shinkansen network.

Also here is the link to the NorthEast maglev panel

http://northeastmaglev.com/about-tnem

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, November 26, 2013 4:48 PM

ontheBNSF

Murphy Siding

ontheBNSF

Maglev can better adjust to lower population concentration through different vehicle configurations and can travel at higher speeds than HSR thus enabling better adaption to US demographics. The only maglev project that seems to have suffered from a lack or ridership or cost over runs is the linimo maglev in Japan.

     Awesome!  So, when the Maglev goes through an area where the rider density, is for example, 10% of what it is the big cities, the Maglev trains, track and infrastructure can shrink to 10% of the size  and 10% of the cost?  Maybe your underground tube wasn't such a goofy idea after all.  The majority of Maglev traffic, if shrunk t0 proportionally match the conditions, could be sent through a garden hose.

I was more referring to creating lower capacity vehicles.

   Doesn't matter.  You still need full size, full expensive infrastructure.   Small capacity vehicles on infrastructure that is built for large capacity (as it must be) will not come close to covering costs.

      It you really want expensive vehicles that can quickly move passengers from one high-density area to another, maybe you should take shiny aluminum tubes, and put wings on them.  If you could rig up some sort of jet engine- the technology is already available- they could probably move at over 500 m.p.h.  Then, then only additional infrastructure you would need, would be long strips of concrete for them to take off and land.  As far as grade separation, you could put a fence around the concrete strips, and call it something unique- like an airport.

      You know, a lot of this technology is way last century.  I wonder of the Chinese are doing any of this sort of thing?

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Posted by ontheBNSF on Tuesday, November 26, 2013 4:31 PM

schlimm

Maybe that explains it all.  Onthe BNSF is a Larouchie?

I occasionally use info from Larouche, but I am not a follower. Just to be clear.

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, November 26, 2013 4:24 PM

Maybe that explains it all.  Onthe BNSF is a Larouchie?

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Posted by Victrola1 on Tuesday, November 26, 2013 7:56 AM

Lyndon Larouche's organization advocates maglev.

http://larouchepac.com/node/14731

Lyndon Larouche's organization advocates maglevs crossing the Bering Strait.

http://larouchepac.com/node/27968

If information touting maglev's viability is coming from Lyndon Larouche's organization, keep looking for corroborating information.

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Posted by rdamon on Tuesday, November 26, 2013 7:28 AM

Aside from their current financial situation, the PRC also does not have an existing infrastructure to deal with.When building in a greenfield environment you can use the latest technology without worrying about adding "one-offs" or inter-operating with existing systems. They also have an easier time with securing ROW and silencing NIMBY/ BANANA types. Much like Europe post WWII.

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Posted by narig01 on Tuesday, November 26, 2013 2:06 AM
On the serious side. The Peoples Republic of China(PRC) has a lot of resources available and has been willing to expend them on all sorts of projects. That the PRC is willing to try things is an example of the excesses that have been happening there. They have been building a high speed rail system from the ground up. They have been expanding conventional rail by leaps and bounds. Ocean shipping, air, inland river you name it.
That the PRC is willing to try maglev with evacuated tubes who knows maybe they will produce something. They are willing to put resources into it.
Germany, I can only speculate. My guess is that the wreck they had drew attention to what they were doing. It was the result of a trainset running into a maintenance vehicle at speed. The chancellor Angela Merkel put in an appearance. The wreck had many fatalities. And was caused by human error.

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Posted by narig01 on Tuesday, November 26, 2013 1:45 AM
I think we need a vacuum cleaner. :~}

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Posted by ontheBNSF on Monday, November 25, 2013 10:03 PM

schlimm

ontheBNSF
China is actually developing a 620mph partial vacuum tube maglev, that will be ready in 2015. I don't get what there is to dispute here.

Citation from an authoritative source?  A 620mph maglev that will be ready in under two years maximum, yet no one has heard of this wonder of the world but you?  

Unless you can back up your claims with real sources, we will all look the other way while you fly off into your sunset.

Plenty of places are reporting the exact same thing but here is another source if you are not convinced http://english.eastday.com/e/100803/u1a5369373.html I will admit I am wrong on the time frame, it was 2020.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, November 25, 2013 9:27 PM

ontheBNSF

 

China is actually developing a 620mph partial vacuum tube maglev, that will be ready in 2015. I don't get what there is to dispute here. I guess they are also designing a lower speed maglev, which only further serves to prove me right in saying that China hasn't given up on the technology.

Seems like a 620 mph partial vacuum tube maglev would really suck

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Posted by schlimm on Monday, November 25, 2013 9:00 PM

ontheBNSF
China is actually developing a 620mph partial vacuum tube maglev, that will be ready in 2015. I don't get what there is to dispute here.

Citation from an authoritative source?  A 620mph maglev that will be ready in under two years maximum, yet no one has heard of this wonder of the world but you?  

Unless you can back up your claims with real sources, we will all look the other way while you fly off into your sunset.

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Posted by tree68 on Monday, November 25, 2013 8:46 PM

desertdog
You cannot include railroads when you say that "most of our infrastructure wasn't built by investors." Railroads are a notable exception because of their nature. They were built for profit, not necessarily for the public convenience like highways, airports, etc. Even the commuter rail lines that exist today started out as private companies.

Indeed.  Even the little "this town to that town" railroads that formed the foundation of many, if not most, eastern lines were built on the investments of the local residents hoping for a piece of the action.

For that matter, not a few early roads were toll roads run by individuals, not the government.

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Posted by ontheBNSF on Monday, November 25, 2013 8:13 PM

ndbprr
How well will mag lev operate when lightning hits or the power goes out?

I would presume back up power generation or reserve electricity. But this problem faces other electric transport modes as well.

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Posted by ontheBNSF on Monday, November 25, 2013 8:11 PM

desertdog

ontheBNSF

BaltACD

If something makes economic sense to investors, it will be built.  If not, nobody invests.

Most of our infrastructure wasn't built by investors and simply something being being good and/or economical doesn't mean it will get used, plenty of technologies are available that aren't being used but are both good and economical. The world isn't that simple.  Railroads don't desire change and are slow to adopt technologies and always have been slow to adopt technologies throughout their lifetime. In the case of the Florida Maglev it didn't government approval, so it is not knowable whether such a project would be economically viable. In the case of Japan their Maglev was built with private funding.   

You cannot include railroads when you say that "most of our infrastructure wasn't built by investors." Railroads are a notable exception because of their nature. They were built for profit, not necessarily for the public convenience like highways, airports, etc. Even the commuter rail lines that exist today started out as private companies.

John Timm

Even if there was profit motive most railroads in the us (but not all) received large public assistance and most railroads in most countries are government owned with government assistance. 

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Posted by ontheBNSF on Monday, November 25, 2013 8:07 PM

Murphy Siding

ontheBNSF

Murphy Siding

ontheBNSF

 

.................. Railfans propose solutions which would only work in certain parts of the US (corridors) and that most people won't ever use these but will indefinitely have to pay for in one way or another....... Never mind the fact that costs of rail projects always seem to be underestimated and always change the minute come time to actually build it and ridership always seems to be greatly over estimated.

  Oh please- tell us more about these Mag-Lev projects that would run outside of the corridors where all the riders are, will come in under budget, and will have more riders than they thought possible?

Maglev can better adjust to lower population concentration through different vehicle configurations and can travel at higher speeds than HSR thus enabling better adaption to US demographics. The only maglev project that seems to have suffered from a lack or ridership or cost over runs is the linimo maglev in Japan.

     Awesome!  So, when the Maglev goes through an area where the rider density, is for example, 10% of what it is the big cities, the Maglev trains, track and infrastructure can shrink to 10% of the size  and 10% of the cost?  Maybe your underground tube wasn't such a goofy idea after all.  The majority of Maglev traffic, if shrunk t0 proportionally match the conditions, could be sent through a garden hose.

I was more referring to creating lower capacity vehicles.

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Posted by ontheBNSF on Monday, November 25, 2013 8:06 PM

cacole

No matter how you slice it, Maglev requires a dedicated guideway with absolutely no grade crossings, so that means it must be elevated or underground all the way.

When you try to cross the country with it, where are you going to get the power?  Out here in the wild west towns are sometimes hundreds of miles apart and there are no power lines or power plants, and no water source to operate a power plant.  With the EPA trying to eliminate all coal fired power plants that currently exist, providing the power to operate a Maglev system could cause a severe strain on existing power grids.

Nuclear power?  What's the lead time to get the required permits and build a nuclear power plant -- 15 years?  20 years?  And they require huge amounts of water, which we don't have out here in the west.

You don't have to have an elevated guideway to build maglev,  that is another myth about maglev. Like HSR you build it based on area, elevated where it works best and at grade where it works best. The transrapid has an at grade version. You won't build HSR completely at grade because you would get into accidents. As for the issue of electricity that effects electric cars and HSR just as much as it does maglev. Coal obviously should go but nuclear power is perfectly safe and sound. The efforts to kill nuclear power are not based on science but politics. The supposed problems of nuclear power are completely bogus and the safety record compared to other means of electricity generation is quite rock solid. Plus there are many forms of nuclear power which if developed could offer very efficient power generation.

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Posted by ndbprr on Monday, November 25, 2013 8:01 PM
How well will mag lev operate when lightning hits or the power goes out?
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Posted by desertdog on Monday, November 25, 2013 7:48 PM

ontheBNSF

BaltACD

If something makes economic sense to investors, it will be built.  If not, nobody invests.

Most of our infrastructure wasn't built by investors and simply something being being good and/or economical doesn't mean it will get used, plenty of technologies are available that aren't being used but are both good and economical. The world isn't that simple.  Railroads don't desire change and are slow to adopt technologies and always have been slow to adopt technologies throughout their lifetime. In the case of the Florida Maglev it didn't government approval, so it is not knowable whether such a project would be economically viable. In the case of Japan their Maglev was built with private funding.   

You cannot include railroads when you say that "most of our infrastructure wasn't built by investors." Railroads are a notable exception because of their nature. They were built for profit, not necessarily for the public convenience like highways, airports, etc. Even the commuter rail lines that exist today started out as private companies.

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Posted by cacole on Monday, November 25, 2013 7:37 PM

No matter how you slice it, Maglev requires a dedicated guideway with absolutely no grade crossings, so that means it must be elevated or underground all the way.

When you try to cross the country with it, where are you going to get the power?  Out here in the wild west towns are sometimes hundreds of miles apart and there are no power lines or power plants, and no water source to operate a power plant.  With the EPA trying to eliminate all coal fired power plants that currently exist, providing the power to operate a Maglev system could cause a severe strain on existing power grids.

Nuclear power?  What's the lead time to get the required permits and build a nuclear power plant -- 15 years?  20 years?  And they require huge amounts of water, which we don't have out here in the west.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, November 25, 2013 6:47 PM

ontheBNSF

Murphy Siding

ontheBNSF

 

.................. Railfans propose solutions which would only work in certain parts of the US (corridors) and that most people won't ever use these but will indefinitely have to pay for in one way or another....... Never mind the fact that costs of rail projects always seem to be underestimated and always change the minute come time to actually build it and ridership always seems to be greatly over estimated.

  Oh please- tell us more about these Mag-Lev projects that would run outside of the corridors where all the riders are, will come in under budget, and will have more riders than they thought possible?

Maglev can better adjust to lower population concentration through different vehicle configurations and can travel at higher speeds than HSR thus enabling better adaption to US demographics. The only maglev project that seems to have suffered from a lack or ridership or cost over runs is the linimo maglev in Japan.

     Awesome!  So, when the Maglev goes through an area where the rider density, is for example, 10% of what it is the big cities, the Maglev trains, track and infrastructure can shrink to 10% of the size  and 10% of the cost?  Maybe your underground tube wasn't such a goofy idea after all.  The majority of Maglev traffic, if shrunk t0 proportionally match the conditions, could be sent through a garden hose.

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Posted by dakotafred on Monday, November 25, 2013 5:05 PM

overall

I think the question needs to be " How much will you charge for this service and how many people want to pay that much money for it." The assumption is that if a transportation service is faster, someone will always buy it. That may very well be the case, but not always. Just look at the Concord. It was supposed to be the wave of the future, instead, it just ran it's course and went away. They could not charge enough for the service to replace the airplanes when they wore out.

A happy ending, at that. I was visiting my parents in Seattle -- in 1966? -- when Boeing won the contract for the original SST. The town was going nuts, and my dad -- a Boeing engineer -- was all smiles. I had to suppress my own dread of domestic flights spreading sonic booms and long-lasting jet trails from coast to coast.This was before Congress banned supersonic speeds over the continental U.S., effectively killing a domestic SST.

In  the event, only the fishes and a few islanders had to put up with the noise and haze.

 

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Posted by overall on Monday, November 25, 2013 8:17 AM

I think the question needs to be " How much will you charge for this service and how many people want to pay that much money for it." The assumption is that if a transportation service is faster, someone will always buy it. That may very well be the case, but not always. Just look at the Concord. It was supposed to be the wave of the future, instead, it just ran it's course and went away. They could not charge enough for the service to replace the airplanes when they wore out.

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Posted by ontheBNSF on Sunday, November 24, 2013 11:34 PM

BaltACD

If something makes economic sense to investors, it will be built.  If not, nobody invests.

Most of our infrastructure wasn't built by investors and simply something being being good and/or economical doesn't mean it will get used, plenty of technologies are available that aren't being used but are both good and economical. The world isn't that simple.  Railroads don't desire change and are slow to adopt technologies and always have been slow to adopt technologies throughout their lifetime. In the case of the Florida Maglev it didn't government approval, so it is not knowable whether such a project would be economically viable. In the case of Japan their Maglev was built with private funding.   

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, November 24, 2013 11:03 PM

If something makes economic sense to investors, it will be built.  If not, nobody invests.

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