Come gaze into my crystal ball

[Mookie]

On a lighter note:

I was wondering what all the great minds on this forum thought the future locomotives would be appearance-wise.

I can't do horsepower and dynamic brakes. I leave that for the heavy hitters. I am more wondering what the future locomotive will look like. Do you think they will be longer, shorter, same length? Will they be powered by diesel, water, air? Will they run on more axles or less axles or will the axles be positioned differently? (Think in-line skates)

I am talking at least 50 years from now.

Or are the railroads relatively happy with what they have now and will continue to keep things just as they are.

And will there be humans on these locomotives?

Mookie

[Anonymous]

According to estimates of world oil reserves there will be little or no oil remaining in 50 years at current consumption rates. What little there is will likely be consumed by industry manufacturing things such as plastics and other critical petroleum based items leaving none for transportation. I'd look for a lot of electric locomotives powered by catenary. Possibly some play and plug switchers using rechargable batteries or perhaps advanced hybrid versions of the Green Goat technology powered by alcohol fired engines generating electricity for batteries. Don't look for fuel cells to work unless someone solves some very fundamental questions such as where the hydrogen necessary for the cells is to come from. This is a major flaw with that technology that everyone involved is fond of glossing over. At present, the source of hydrogen, the breakdown of water requires a lot more energy than the hydrogen it produces is worth. Thus, the cost of the process won't ever make sense.

Given this major shift in fuels I'd look for more catenary backed by coal and possibly nuclear plants. The big problem with nuclear remains how to deal with the waste cheaply and reliably. I wouldn't look for a lot of new nuclear plants until that problem has been solved.

LC

[Anonymous]

I don't think you are going to see much in the way of changes in size; there's a lot of cost involved in changing specifications for roadbed and infrastructure.

If the past fifty years is any measure of the future, you are probably going to see changes in appearance- like paint schemes. That will be a side effect of consolidation of railroads. Knowing my luck, the future rail executive will probably decide on a rainbow of colors- so long as that rainbow is black.

The boxy, modular appearance of locomtives probably won't change; it's easy to assemble, and probably easier to maintain than "car body" type locomotives.

Technological changes are harder to figure out. I doubt that freight cars will look much like they do now. (Freight cars don't look a lot like they did fifty years ago. They're bigger, for one thing.) I suspect that some bright individual will figure out a faster way to standardize loading and offloading bulk goods, so that one speciality car (like a chemical tank car) can be used for carrying something else- like grain, or coal. It's even possible that a railroad inventory for freight cars will be nothing more than TTFX flat cars- with industries owning standardized containers that get loaded and unloaded with whatever they are producing. And no one can tell what changes there will be in materials used to build freight cars, either- we have come a long way from wood and iron.

You'll probably see less people; the trend is to make do with less people doing more. That's not just railroads, either- that's everywhere. There's a lot of changes that won't be visible, mostly in train control, signalling and communication.

Trains will get longer, and yards will get bigger to handle them. Coupler technology will change So will braking. Engineers will still deal with a lot of energy behind them, and there has to be a better way to control 10,000 tons of kinetic energy than air and brake shoe.

Will there be a change in actual locomotive propulsion? Current technology is beginning to look at alternatives. I doubt we will see anything so drastic as fusion powered locomotives, or even nuclear powered ones, either. Steam locomotives lasted over a hundred years. They just got bigger and more powerful. The change from steam to diesel on main lines took a little over 30 years. The primary reason, from what I can tell, was economy. You might spend more on a diesel locomotive initially than a steam engine, but you saved more in terms of maintenance- people, time and equipment- over the long run. There's other kinds of locomotives being tested right now, but I don't see anything like the FT-A and FT-B combination demonstrators causing rail presidents and engineers to take notice the way they did for diesels.


Since it's your crystal ball, Mookie, I don't think you'll see passenger trains outside museums. You will see a lot of mass transit light rail, but main line intercity traffic will probably cease to exist. The reason is because passenger service doesn't make money, and freight railroads hate passenger trains. (Cornelius Vanderbilt was the first to put that hatred into succinct words- nearly a hundred years ago.)


Erik

[locomutt]

Not sure about changes in size,but Mag-Lev comes to mind.[:)]

Uh,when's the last time you dusted that "sucker" off?

[dharmon]

Hmmm...

I tend to agree with what has been said above.

As far as locos go more Green Goat style hybrid technology. I agree that eventually we'll see new electrification projects, but probabaly restricted to big mainlines. The hybrids may be a combination of low hp diesel/battery cell with the ability to charge from the catenary also. So It would leave the main with a full charge, then run the deisel to maintain charge while it worked on non electrified lines. The one problem I see, other than the tremendous expense of electrification, is the already tenuous power production capabilities in the US. Without a good cheap source of voltage, and the increased use, unless we revisit nukes we're headed for probs.

As far as ops go. I see more spin off of local jobs to smaller, terminal and shortlines such as Ed's PTRA. And as the price of fuel goes up more of the smaller road will look towards the hybrids also. Those places that don't have or need terminal roads are going to be greater intermodal hubs with rail/truck ops.

Railcars.....more intermodal cars and containerized shipping, specialized commodity cars and fewer general purpose cars.

[louisnash]

We can always go back to the glorious days of steam.

My, what it would be for me to see a Big Emma going through my old hometown on the old L&N. My grandfather has told me that they were a sight to see go by.

We can only dream.

Brian (KY)

[tree68]

Despite changes in the rolling stock, it's still steel wheel on steel rail after nearly 200 years. I don't think that will change. Motive power will reflect its fuel source. Catenary may well be strung, if power is available.

QUOTE: Originally posted by dharmon

Railcars.....more intermodal cars and containerized shipping, specialized commodity cars and fewer general purpose cars.

I agree here, though - in fact, it may be possible that non-bulk industries will no longer load cars directly. Instead, they will load containers, and those containers will be loaded onto flats. Many industrial sidings (and their maintenance) will disappear, replaced by local "new techology" team tracks, to which industries will ship their containers via truck. Compact carloading machines will handle the loading onto the flats. Since they won't be handling hundreds of containers each day, the facilities will be very simple, perhaps using small overhead cranes or some sort of wheeled loader.

A major shipper might maintain their own siding, but the technology will remain the same - fill the container, put it on a car.

[MP57313]

QUOTE: Originally posted by erikthered

Will there be a change in actual locomotive propulsion? Current technology is beginning to look at alternatives. Erik

Are they looking at synthetic fuels, sort of like the synthetic oil that some cars uses (Mobil 1, etc.) Is that even realistic? If in fact the oil supply is being depleted, eventually it would make sense financially to develop alternatives

[espeefoamer]

I see in my crystal ball ,which is rather cloudy right now,nothing but yellow diesels with grey roofs and red trim and lettering[:(][:(!][xx(].

[mudchicken]

'scuse me....I'll be back later after you fix the vertical hold and the fuzzy image...[%-)][%-)][%-)]

[locomutt]

QUOTE: Originally posted by louisnash

We can always go back to the glorious days of steam.

My, what it would be for me to see a Big Emma going through my old hometown on the old L&N. My grandfather has told me that they were a sight to see go by.

We can only dream.

Brian (KY)

THAT ONE sir would be a fantastic dream![:)]

[Anonymous]

I've got to agree with the folks that are talking more intermodal type transportation.

It's a huge advantage for the railroads to only have to worry about one type of railcar, and you really can adjust the intermodal containers so they can hold just about anything -- anyone else notice that there are more and more mini-tanker intermodal containers out there?

I think you'll also be seeing 1 man crews in the resonably near future, particularily on the mainline unit trains. Most switches can be thrown automatically by the dispatchers, and we will probably see new ways of clearances etc. coming into the locomotive via computer, making it unecessary for conductors to continuously copy voice-over-radio communication....

You know the railways are always looking to axe more jobs - not because they are mean, but because that's what they have to do to compete.

[Willy2]

I think that I'd have to agree with what a lot of members have already said. But I'm not exactly the technical type, so I couldn't really say what I think future locomotives will look like.

[JoeKoh]

Sorry Mookie
when I look in your crystal ball it keeps saying come back later. Matt sees an 8 on the side too.
stay safe
Joe

[Junctionfan]

I tried gazing into the crystal ball but it kept on say server down. Not a good sign.

[edblysard]

Synthetic oil has been around for a long time,
Agip comes to mind, they made "oil" for the German army...they are still in business, Italy....

Cost of structure is still the same problem it was 50 years ago, which is why cantanry will not appear.
Its easier and cheaper to generate the juice "on site" with some engine turning a alternator.
What will power the engine, who knows, but bet on technology finding something efficent for the time, after all, the driving force of all of this is profit, and profit drives technology.

Lots more containers, lots more bulk cars, less boxes, big, real big tankcars.
Locomotive will look pretty much the same, areodynamics are just for looks, on something that weighs 200 tons, its a moot point.

C-C trucks, and the ability to steer them, is here to stay.
B-B switchers too.

Like Dan said, there will be a shift in the way business is done.

The Class 1s will carry it across the country, and deliver the goods to roads like mine, one netural railroad to serve most of a city or county/location.

The bucks are in the bulk stuff, containers everywhere, unit trains too.
LCL carloading will be history, look to FedEx and UPS for that.

Passenger service, maybe.
Local commuter rail, well, there really is no choice on that.

Cities have grown to the point they have no choice, there isnt enough real estate to build freeways big enough to remain fluid, and if they could, you would have to carry canned air around with you, the real stuff would be unbreathable.

Mass transit rail is coming back, big time.


Ed

[espeefoamer]

I see the head of the mechanical dept. of a medium size railroad thinking"When I was a kid my Lionel engine had magnetized wheels for added traction. Let's see if it will work on a real locomotive".

[Modelcar]

....Passenger rail....perhaps...Up and down the east coast and west coast as well...other corridors of medium distance too, like radiating out from Chicago and some other metropolitan areas. All or most, some form of HSR. Agree about the increase of commuter rail....It better happen.
Much more containers...Less of box car types...
Power....I'll stick with some kind of oil...Wouldn't rule out synthetic...We may find a more economical way to produce it in masses....Wouldn't that mess with the balance of power in the mid eastern countries.
Appearance of railroad power....Not too much different overall than we have today...More comfort for operator[s]....New method of setting up staffing for railroads, or much changed...don't have any idea how, but hear a bunch of comments it sure is a rough life for employees the way it is now and has been for 100 years plus.

[Anonymous]

Right on Espee.

I think asking what railroads will look like is asking what will society look like. What will our cities look like? What will industry look like?

I think that as technology gets more advanced, it will become less intrusive. The landscape will appear more "natural".

If population stays under control, cities definatly will become "greener".

I think wars of the future will definatly be resource oriented if not already.

Trains will be quieter, faster, cleaner, and probably fewer too (sad).

[Mookie]

Thank you for all your thoughts and there are many good ones in here, too. There is a lot to think about in all of this. It will be interesting to see what the world looks like when individuals like all our young people on the forums are senior citizens and watching trains. See how close we came.

Mookie

[pat390]

I'm gonna go with electric locomotives that are the same size and have crews