Are you phychic?

[Noah Hofrichter]

I'm doing a report for school, and after searching around the internet to no help what so ever, and let me say I never thought I would find much, I thought I'd try here, where this question is right at home. With gas and desil prices getting higher and higher, this is obviously going to hurt the profits somewhat of the trucking compainies. Do you think this will cause more industries to start shipping more and more by rail? Personaly I do, but I'd like to hear opinions from other people. I'm also trying to figure out what other effects the railroad is having on the economy, versus how trucking is effecting the economy. Is either one doing better than the other when it comes to buying companies support, or who the companies will look to first? Obviously both will survive in the future, but who do you think will slowly become stronger? I think both will become sort of an equal, because trains can haul lage quanities slightly cheaper, but sometimes the service is much slower. Trucks cant haul that much, but they can get small amounts there quickly. Any opinions on anything I have said or new Ideas about the subject is greatly appreciated.

Thanks very much for any help you can provide,
Noah[:p]

[Big_Boy_4005]

I think we are already starting to see some of this. As fuel prices continue to climb we will see even more. The trucking industry is already feeling the pain at the pump, and if this continues much longer they will really whine to Congress, just like the airlines.

The question is, can the railroads pick up the slack? This may be too much business to fast for them. My crystal ball is foggy.[swg]

[Anonymous]

QUOTE:
The question is, can the railroads pick up the slack? This may be too much business to fast for them. My crystal ball is foggy.

I'm gonna have to say yes on this one (is this too much too fast?), the June issue of trains had a whole article [editors letter] on the problems that UP is having at the moment.

My main concern is that the railroads finally get up to speed with the new crews and power and what not, and the next thing you know, 5 years down the road or whatever the railroads start mass layofffs and cut-backs.

Hope that doesn't happen, but you never really know. [?]

[Anonymous]

COmpanies that still use warehouses will probably find that rail is the way to go, but companies that need raw materials or supplies on the hour (time-sensitive) will probaly go with trucking as long as it's short haul. I hope the railroads will get smart soon and establish high speed, regular service with the physical plant to handle it, i.e. concrete ties, heavier rail, lowering of grades, re-doulble-tracking high density, busy lines, building by-passes of large cities, building bypasses on yards and heavy industrial areas, etc. The list could go on and on. I believe railroads will try to end long haul trucking once and for all, then work with short haul trucking to establish a fast, efficient system that would leave railroads as the "main lines of our tranportation system, with trucking being the "branches for low traffic and local service.
Also, the whole freight transportation system needs to openly complain to our government about letting good American manufacturing outsource to Sotheast Asia and Mexico. We need to be the industrial powerhouse for the world, not China. That would truly create business, meaning more railroads and more delivery truck service to a stronger America and a more internationally respected government.
Although mainly what you're talking about it seems is freight, remember the cars we drive cost us a lot in gas bills too. If enough people could start riding trains again on this newly renovated rail system I'd like to see, Amtrak could by faster locomotives, cars with more capactiy and luxury, add more routes and (gasp!) maybe make a profit for once.

[Anonymous]

Mr. Hofrichter, here are some suggestions.

Why don't you consider doing a survey of businesses that ship and are located in your area, way down in Cocomo or wherever. You can get help and probably even some data from the local Economic Development Commission and Chamber of Commerce, and I think you'll find that company personnel, particularly shipping and plant managers, will be more than happy to help a student on such an assignment. Ask them for such information as what they ship; their modal split-incoming/outgoing (how do goods and materials get to and from their facility); what their demands and requirements are, particularly as regards inventory, schedules, reliability and cost; what kind of rail/truck access they need; what kinds of problems do they experience with their carriers and what kinds of exceptional service; and the factors that would cause them to change modes, to mention a few things. Sit down and I think you can probably come up with a few others.

Make sure they know who you are, what school you attend and what year you are, what class this paper is for and the topic, and be willing to agree to maintain confidentiality (that is, you need to get their permission to name their companies-otherwise you can just use the data but don't identify the specific company-say something like "three companies ship more than 50 trailers per week, and two have no rail access"). Keep in mind that some items like shipping costs are competitive issues and they will not want that information published. Make your questions general enough that you can get good data on what you need without compromising their business.

Do not advocate one mode over another or try to convince them to ship more by rail-that will turn them off very quickly. Ask everyone the same questions. You don't have to do every business in town, or cover the subject to exhaustion. Your teacher/prof might like the local angle.

You can do this kind of thing over the phone, but you ought to think about dressing up and making an appointment to see at least the biggest of them. You might get a tour and it could lead to some good things later.

Good luck on your paper. Let us all know how it turns out.[^]

[jeaton]

Noah,

The post above is a good idea, but unless there are a couple of businesses in Reedsburg shipping or receiving goods in loads, you may have to go over to LaCrosse or down to Madison to get that kind of help.

To get a handle on the relative impact of fuel prices on transportation costs rail vs. truck the AAR has some information at there site at aar.org. I haven't looked, but I suspect that the American Trucking Association's web site also has something on fuel costs, and the effect of fuel price increases.

In so far as the future is concerned, in the near term, say the next ten years, I think that capacity is going to be more of an issue than fuel costs. Both highways for trucks and major rail lines are running at very high utilization levels. It may come done to which mode will get the money-government or private-to add lanes for trucks or tracks for railroads.

Good luck on your paper.

Jay

[Anonymous]

Noah [8D] [:)] [:p]

Best of Luck on your paper. [:)]

Some very good ideas have been discussed above, you might also want to contact "YOUR" local railroad (the one you always show pics of) and ask them some questions and get their ideas. A local trucking company might also supply some info to you. This way you could compare and contrast their business models.

[M636C]

Noah,

I don't think the fuel cost increases are enough to cause a major change to rail, and I don't think rail has enough capacity left to take much more traffic.

Look at UP giving up the UPS contract - will they ever get it back!

Peter

[rrock]

In many areas rail capacity is a limiting factor, as pointed out previously.

An example from my neck of the woods. A major part of BNSF's busines in the Pacific Northwest is eastbound intermodal traffic originating at the ports of Seattle and Tacoma WA, and Portland OR (and a few other smaller ports). BNSF has three principle east/west routes.

The Stevens pass route (former GN) is reached by going northward from Seattle, through Everett WA. Much of the line over the pass is single traffic, with considerable grades. Train frequency is limited by need to flush diesel fumes from the 7.8 mile long Cascade tunnel at the summit. And there are only so many passing sidings for long trains. Physically, it would be difficult to double-track much more of the line, and the cost of adding a second tunnel would be economically prohibitive.

Stampede pass (former NP) is a winding, slow climb over the Cascade range from Auburn WA- not a very direct route from Seattle. The ancient brick-lined tunnel at the summit is not tall enough for double stack containers. It's been a couple years since I spent much time trackside, but much of the traffic on the line used to be eastbound empty single height grain trains.

BNSF's line along the north side of the Columbia river (former SP&S) is a very level, fast running line. Single track, and little room between the river and adjoining cliffs (in many areas) to add another track. A few long passing sidings, but not much space to add more. One section of Amtrak's Empire builder also uses this route, causing major headaches for dispatchers. Originating at Vancouver WA, this line requires a time-consuming trip over a few miles of heavily trafficed line from Portland to Vancouver, a major bottleneck being a two-track bridge over the Columbia river.

Much of the abandoned Milwaukee east/west route has been converted to public hiking trail parks, and will NEVER see rails again.

I hope I've illustrated that rail traffice (in many areas) will always be limited, in the long-haul market, by capacity. The physical infrastructure only allows so many trains a day to be run across the route. Often it is physically impossible to improve route, or economically not feasible.

Not to speak of yards, crossings, urban areas, and other speed-restricting bottlenecks.

[Noah Hofrichter]

Thanks to all of you for ansewering my question, I really appreciate it. I'm sorry I couldn't get back to check on this sooner, I was on a two day vacation with my Dad. There's alot to think about here, and again, I thank you all. There's a trucking company in town, called skinnner trucking, that ships all over the midwest. I might try going to see them, as well as talking to Wisconsin and southern, and compare the two, or something to that effect.

Noah

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Noah Hofrichter

I'm doing a report for school, and after searching around the internet to no help what so ever, and let me say I never thought I would find much, I thought I'd try here, where this question is right at home. With gas and desil prices getting higher and higher, this is obviously going to hurt the profits somewhat of the trucking compainies. Do you think this will cause more industries to start shipping more and more by rail? Personaly I do, but I'd like to hear opinions from other people. I'm also trying to figure out what other effects the railroad is having on the economy, versus how trucking is effecting the economy. Is either one doing better than the other when it comes to buying companies support, or who the companies will look to first? Obviously both will survive in the future, but who do you think will slowly become stronger? I think both will become sort of an equal, because trains can haul lage quanities slightly cheaper, but sometimes the service is much slower. Trucks cant haul that much, but they can get small amounts there quickly. Any opinions on anything I have said or new Ideas about the subject is greatly appreciated.

Thanks very much for any help you can provide,
Noah[:p]

Noah-

Spell check will help in any report you do.

"Psychic" not Phychic

"Diesel" not Desil

As far as your underlying question, yes trucking costs are increasing, but many of the smaller and less financially capable trucking companies have already failed due not only to fuel costs, but other costs such as rapidly rising insurance costs or even a lack of available insurance, new DOT Hours of Service (HOS) regulations for truckers making the old log book cheating much more difficult and a continued shortage of truck drivers, particularly on long haul routes.

Railroads are gaining on the intermodal side as a result of the truckers problems. Unfortunately, railroads have been shrinking for decades and there are inadequate supplies of railroad cars of certain types and trained crews. As a result the railroads are not well positioned to take advantage of this opportunity to capture traffic. The current uptick in the economy has both truckers and railroads maxed out on capacity and struggling to catch up.

Hope that gives you a few ideas.

LC

[Anonymous]

Are you Psychic?

heres my answer:

No I'm not, But mark my mother and Girlfriends down as a definate YES.