Convicted One Flintlock76 How's that? I'm thinking that those trying to advance the idea that sacrificing the lives of some is a worthwhile bargain in order to get the economy restarted, likely have more in common with uncle Adolf than they realize.
Flintlock76 How's that?
I'm thinking that those trying to advance the idea that sacrificing the lives of some is a worthwhile bargain in order to get the economy restarted, likely have more in common with uncle Adolf than they realize.
The real problem with Covid-19 and its transmission.
https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Leadership, and the responsibilities that come with it, can be a tough, ugly business, especially if you're one of the "good guys." A lot of them are finding that out right now.
BaltACDThe real problem with Covid-19 and its transmission. https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4
And an antibody study in California is showing that 50 to 85 times as many as previously thought may have been exposed to the virus. That could mean that as many as 58 million have been exposed or had the virus, most with few or no symptoms. That would put the current death rate at 0.06%...
It also appears that a significant number of the sailors on the Theodore Roosevelt (carrier) also tested positive, with no symptoms.
This gives lie to the conclusion many seem to have (including many government leaders and the media) that everyone who gets the virus will die.
Disclaimer - the Stamford study has not yet been peer reviewed. I would opine that it will be thorougly attacked by those who are invested in high casualty numbers.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
tree68 BaltACD The real problem with Covid-19 and its transmission. https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4 And an antibody study in California is showing that 50 to 85 times as many as previously thought may have been exposed to the virus. That could mean that as many as 58 million have been exposed or had the virus, most with few or no symptoms. That would put the current death rate at 0.06%... It also appears that a significant number of the sailors on the Theodore Roosevelt (carrier) also tested positive, with no symptoms. This gives lie to the conclusion many seem to have (including many government leaders and the media) that everyone who gets the virus will die. Disclaimer - the Stamford study has not yet been peer reviewed. I would opine that it will be thorougly attacked by those who are invested in high casualty numbers.
BaltACD The real problem with Covid-19 and its transmission. https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4
But how many of those with symptoms will end up occupying hospital beds and how long will they occupy them - that is the question, the answer to which may swamp the health care system.
One article I read stated that 'normal' vetilator use on patients had averaged 2 or 3 days in the past. Covid-19 patients when placed on ventilators stay on them for approximately two weeks or more. That being the case, a Covid-19 patient 'steals' the ventilator from 5 to 7 or more 'normal' patients - with most patients coming through the door being Covid-19 the ventilator shortage grows geomentrially.
If the virus does not quit, the lockdown protocol could go on forever. Nobody is going to risk one single life. If anything, it will be the collapsing economy that will drive us to lift the restrictions in order to prevent things like mass starvation. Or it may all just be over in another month. But as of yesterday, it is the virus that is in the driver's seat.
Convicted One I'm thinking that those trying to advance the idea that sacrificing the lives of some is a worthwhile bargain in order to get the economy restarted, likely have more in common with uncle Adolf than they realize.
Keep in mind that the lockdown itself will be lethal to some people. One of the "non-essential" activities in many jurisdictions include elective surgeries, which include cancer surgery and stents. These can be postponed a short time without too much ill effect, but will end up killing people if postponed too long. A high sustained unemployment rate will also end up raising death rates, so there will be a point where the cure is worse than the disease.
Tanking the stock market affects more than just the "1%", as a good number of people rely on 401-k's or pension funds for retirement, both relying on the stock market.
Euclid Actually there are three motives: 1) Survival 2) Slowing the economy 3) Making a living by working Items #1 and #3 are in conflict with each other to the extent that survival requires not working. And likewise with that same requirement, items #1 and #2 are linked so that as #1 increases, so does #2.
Actually there are three motives:
1) Survival
2) Slowing the economy
3) Making a living by working
Items #1 and #3 are in conflict with each other to the extent that survival requires not working.
And likewise with that same requirement, items #1 and #2 are linked so that as #1 increases, so does #2.
I think this new blended plan to follow only virus medical data will eliminate my item #2 (slowing the economy) as an objective because it eliminates the ability to blame anyone for a slow economy. The virus is now driving the bus, and the blended plan will take orders from the virus. It is a beautiful concept that arrived just in time to prevent a showdown over executive power versus the power of the Governors. So yes, let’s just let the lockdowns continue as long needed. I have enough 91% alcohol to last two years.
Paul_D_North_Jr Plus, exposure to sunlight does the virus no good (I can't prove that it has a deleterious effect, but sunlight in moderation can't hurt - unlike fish tank cleaner . . . ).
Plus, exposure to sunlight does the virus no good (I can't prove that it has a deleterious effect, but sunlight in moderation can't hurt - unlike fish tank cleaner . . . ).
I've seen references stating that the UV from sunlight does indeed kill the virus in a short time. Experience from the 1918 pandemic was that patients recovered faster when kept outside in daytime hours.
BaltACDBut how many of those with symptoms will end up occupying hospital beds and how long will they occupy them - that is the question, the answer to which may swamp the health care system.
I think we can determine that pretty well already. As I've noted elsewhere, we are no where near swamping the system in my area. My county currently has two in the hospital (down from four) and all of the hospitals in the area are laying off staff...
BaltACDCovid-19 patients when placed on ventilators stay on them for approximately two weeks or more.
Did the article specify what the reason for taking the referenced COVID-19 patients off the ventilators was? I'll bet a hat over 80% were because of incident death, which might have been protracted during increasingly-obvious multiple "organ shutdown".
The issue isn't the patients on ventilators; it's letting them become so affected by ARDS that they require a ventilator upon admission ... by which point it may be too late for them to 'throw off' the combination of viral infection and cytokine storm.
I see arguments that alternative means of treating patients in 'respiratory distress' now can involve postural factors ... ridiculously, to me, including putting them 'on their bellies' ... but that implicitly these have at least a good 'prognosis' as those actually invasively respirated in these mass settings.
It is going to be interesting indeed, perhaps much more so than for leaking silicone inserts, when the plaintiff's-bar marketing machine begins to get hold of the actual respirator-patient recovery statistics. If you thought stents were quick, easy, big money ... watch.
tree68 BaltACD But how many of those with symptoms will end up occupying hospital beds and how long will they occupy them - that is the question, the answer to which may swamp the health care system. I think we can determine that pretty well already. As I've noted elsewhere, we are no where near swamping the system in my area. My county currently has two in the hospital (down from four) and all of the hospitals in the area are laying off staff...
BaltACD But how many of those with symptoms will end up occupying hospital beds and how long will they occupy them - that is the question, the answer to which may swamp the health care system.
When did the last person return from a trip to NYC? I would venture that laying off staff has absolutely nothing to do with the incidence of covid-19 or any other disease that is treated there. It is nothing more and nothing less that bean counter inspired. They could have 100 covid-19 cases come in tomorrow and the staff cuts would still be made. The old 'do more with less'. PSH - Precision Scheduled Hospital.
Convicted OneWe have a great propensity to attribute to a single cause, problems that are the probuct of many. Stir in a little apophenia....
Thanks. You made me look up a new (to me) word and learn what it meant. So this old dog learned a new word.
BaltACD I would venture that laying off staff has absolutely nothing to do with the incidence of covid-19 or any other disease that is treated there.
Oh, get real. It's related to the shutdown of ordinary clinical practice and probably to suppression of voluntary surgical or medical procedures. Every industry isn't necessarily run by hedge-fund managers and haunting Harrisons to throw it in the cheapness toilet.
What Tree is pointing out is that, whether or not people are still 'returning from New York' infected, there isn't an entering case rate of people already sick with critical conditions like ARDS. Which is one of the large unremarked problems with the New York City 'response' as it has been elsewhere. If you wait until a runaway autoimmune condition has reached critical levels before even beginning to think about triaging it ... you'll fail at emergency medicine. Just as so many facilities, explicitly including poorly-considered temporary ones, have been. In Tree's country, they've learned to watch and report potential early incidence, and prospectively to get them first isolated and then under expedient care short of ARDS progression. (And, at least in theory, to have time to transport them to a better-equipped critical care facility should their case take a malignant turn...)
OvermodOh, get real. It's related to the shutdown of ordinary clinical practice and probably to suppression of voluntary surgical or medical procedures.
This. And the very real fact that we simply aren't getting cases up here. As of this afternoon (report from the county executive) there have been 51 positive tests of 1,176 total tests. Thirty-four are reported as recovered. Those numbers reflect testing since the beginning. Fifteen are currently in mandatory isolation, 66 in mandatory quarantine (possible contact with a confirmed person), and 22 are in precautionary quarantine.
The good news is that the governor is allowing golf courses and marinas to open, with certain restrictions. One step at a time.
Actually, I find I am mistaken about the reopening plan. It does not defer to the virus statictics of spread for making the decisions on reopening. It defers to the Governors, and they are divided along party lines. Obviously, it will be a very long time before the economy restarts and begins recovery.
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