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Hunter Harrison\s Legasy and CSX\s Future

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Posted by Anonymous on Monday, May 28, 2018 10:20 AM

charlie hebdo
Some statistics are more telling for short-term, some for longer. For railroads, the OR has always been considered a good indication of efficiency, except when it contradicts the narrative some folks want to push.

You are right about the OR being an efficiency indicator, but nothing more. And I think most here see it that way. OR is not the only indicator for the success of a railroad. You can generate more profit with a higher OR.

EHH had lower OR and higher profit at CP because of cost cutting and higher rates but not higher transport volume.  I think this is quite short sighted and not sustainable.
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Posted by Euclid on Monday, May 28, 2018 11:07 AM

tree68
 
charlie hebdo
Look at GE.  They are selling several lines, yet nobody is suggesting it is part of some vulture capitalism scheme. 

 

It's not the sale itself.  As you note, companies have been selling off assets for years.

The question would be where are the monies from those sales going?  If they are mostly being plowed back into the company, I'm sure few would find fault with the practice.

If, on the other hand, those monies are being sent directly to the bottom line, as profits that investors can draw from, one might tend to question the motives involved.

I suspect that many here believe the latter is the case.

 

You posed a qusestion about whether the money from sales of assets is being plowed back into the company or going directly into the pockets of investors.  And then you seem to suggest that the answer is the latter based of your suspicion that many here believe it is the latter.  

Why not find the truthful answer to the question rather than following what you suspect many here believe?

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Posted by zugmann on Monday, May 28, 2018 12:03 PM

VOLKER LANDWEHR
You are right about the OR being an efficiency indicator, but nothing more. And I think most here see it that way. OR is not the only indicator for the success of a railroad. You can generate more profit with a higher OR.

It's not that OR isn't a viable metric - but some management becomes so damned fixated on it that they ignore other metrics.  Train velocity, terminal dwell, plan adherance, etc.  And to acheive this OR they cut, cut and cut.  Then when traffic gets a boost, they are caught with their pants around their ankles as they struggle to find people and locomotives.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by tree68 on Monday, May 28, 2018 12:22 PM

Euclid
Why not find the truthful answer to the question rather than following what you suspect many here believe?

Sorry, I don't work in accounting at CSX.

As has been noted (sarcastically, at times), the financial reports issued by CSX say what they want them to say.

If you expect CSX management to admit they're out to plunder the company, you've got a surprise coming.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, May 28, 2018 12:36 PM

tree68

 

 
Euclid
Why not find the truthful answer to the question rather than following what you suspect many here believe?

 

Sorry, I don't work in accounting at CSX.

As has been noted (sarcastically, at times), the financial reports issued by CSX say what they want them to say.

If you expect CSX management to admit they're out to plunder the company, you've got a surprise coming.

 

If you don't have the answer because you don't work in accouting at CSX, why do you believe that the money from selling assets is being used for the short term enrichment of investors rather than for investing in new capital for the long term benefit of the company?  That sounds like you do have the answer. 

So how do you arrive at the answer without working in accounting at CSX?

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Posted by zugmann on Monday, May 28, 2018 12:37 PM

Where has CSX invested in capital?

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, May 28, 2018 12:51 PM

Euclid

 

 
tree68

 

 
Euclid
Why not find the truthful answer to the question rather than following what you suspect many here believe?

 

Sorry, I don't work in accounting at CSX.

As has been noted (sarcastically, at times), the financial reports issued by CSX say what they want them to say.

If you expect CSX management to admit they're out to plunder the company, you've got a surprise coming.

 

 

 

If you don't have the answer because you don't work in accouting at CSX, why do you believe that the money from selling assets is being used for the short term enrichment of investors rather than for investing in new capital for the long term benefit of the company?  That sounds like you do have the answer. 

 

So how do you arrive at the answer without working in accounting at CSX?

 

Euclid

 

 
tree68

 

 
Euclid
Why not find the truthful answer to the question rather than following what you suspect many here believe?

 

Sorry, I don't work in accounting at CSX.

As has been noted (sarcastically, at times), the financial reports issued by CSX say what they want them to say.

If you expect CSX management to admit they're out to plunder the company, you've got a surprise coming.

 

 

 

If you don't have the answer because you don't work in accouting at CSX, why do you believe that the money from selling assets is being used for the short term enrichment of investors rather than for investing in new capital for the long term benefit of the company?  That sounds like you do have the answer. 

 

So how do you arrive at the answer without working in accounting at CSX?

 

For the anti-EHH no matter what crowd, it's an article of faith. In the alternate fact world, audited accounts don't matter because the books are all cooked.  Statistics are all lies.  Science is junk.  Reporting is fake news.

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Posted by tree68 on Monday, May 28, 2018 2:09 PM

charlie hebdo
For the anti-EHH no matter what crowd, it's an article of faith. In the alternate fact world, audited accounts don't matter because the books are all cooked.  Statistics are all lies.  Science is junk.  Reporting is fake news.

It's an article of faith because of vulture capitalists like Mantle Ridge, who have been shown to be interested only in milking what they can from a business.  This isn't limited to the railroad world.  I still maintain that EHH was mainly a figurehead - someone else was calling the shots.

Books don't necessarily have to be cooked, but sometimes you have to be able (and willing) to read between the lines.  The numbers may all add up, but is it always logical that they add up the way they do?

As Zug asks - where is CSX investing in capital projects?  Or other projects that will build business?  They've certainly driven enough business away.

As I've noted before - for some odd reason, CSX is reinstating trains that were cut in the big sweep.  North Baltimore was going to close, but now it isn't.  

Hey - maybe EHH's supporters will have the last laugh, but for now, I'm not so sure that's going to be the case.

 

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Posted by PJS1 on Monday, May 28, 2018 4:27 PM

zugmann
 Where has CSX invested in capital? 

According to the Company’s Statements of Cash Flow, between 2012 and 2017 CSX invested $11.8 billion in Property, Plant, and Equipment (PP&E).  Over the same period, it sold $554 million of PP&E, for a net increase in PP&E of $11.2 billion.    
 
In the first quarter of 2018 the Company invested $368 million in PP&E and sold $52 million, for a net increase of $316 million.
 
To know exactly where the capital investments were made, one would need access to the Company's property accounting records, investment schedules, and cash management schedules.  The only outsiders that could get them, I suspect, would be the external auditors, SEC regulators, courts in case of a law suit, etc.  
 
None of the published numbers suggest the Company is eating its seed corn.  
 
Management through its decision-making processes can influence the financial outcomes for a company.  It can, for example, increase cash and cash equivalents by reducing cash dividends, selling debt, selling stock, etc.  It can reduce expenses by delaying maintenance on PP&E, selling PP&E, laying off employees, etc. 
 
There are many ways management can influence the financial outcomes, which is what they get paid for doing.  But they cannot rig the accounting that supports the financial statements to produce a desired result unless they aspire to spend time in the Big House.  This especially true for a public corporation, which has numerous auditing and regulatory bodies looking over their shoulder.  

Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Monday, May 28, 2018 4:36 PM

Paul_D_North_Jr
or that there are shades of gray, nuance, and multiple - sometimes conflicting - goals. - PDN. 

Just hope that there are not fifty shades.,..Oh never mind.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 2:12 PM

charlie hebdo
For the anti-EHH no matter what crowd, it's an article of faith. In the alternate fact world, audited accounts don't matter because the books are all cooked. Statistics are all lies. Science is junk. Reporting is fake news.



     My feeling is that Mantle Ridge is a vulture capitalist organization. They brought on EHH to prune everything back to the bone so that the stock prices would climb and they could sell their stock after draining the coffers through dividends and such. The worry is whether they cut too much and that there won’t be a viable company when they are done squeezing the money out. I’d worry that they are deferring maintenance and cutting back on safety.

     You seem to see it differently. How do you see this whole thing going down, past, present and future?

 

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 2:52 PM

Murphy Siding
 
charlie hebdo
For the anti-EHH no matter what crowd, it's an article of faith. In the alternate fact world, audited accounts don't matter because the books are all cooked. Statistics are all lies. Science is junk. Reporting is fake news.

     My feeling is that Mantle Ridge is a vulture capitalist organization. They brought on EHH to prune everything back to the bone so that the stock prices would climb and they could sell their stock after draining the coffers through dividends and such. The worry is whether they cut too much and that there won’t be a viable company when they are done squeezing the money out. I’d worry that they are deferring maintenance and cutting back on safety.

     You seem to see it differently. How do you see this whole thing going down, past, present and future?

He is looking at divedends to the stock holders NOW - the company be damed.

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Posted by Deggesty on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 3:03 PM

In other words, mulct now and run--and express Mr. Vanderbilt's concern for the public?

Johnny

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 3:28 PM

BaltACD

 

 
Murphy Siding
 
charlie hebdo
For the anti-EHH no matter what crowd, it's an article of faith. In the alternate fact world, audited accounts don't matter because the books are all cooked. Statistics are all lies. Science is junk. Reporting is fake news.

     My feeling is that Mantle Ridge is a vulture capitalist organization. They brought on EHH to prune everything back to the bone so that the stock prices would climb and they could sell their stock after draining the coffers through dividends and such. The worry is whether they cut too much and that there won’t be a viable company when they are done squeezing the money out. I’d worry that they are deferring maintenance and cutting back on safety.

     You seem to see it differently. How do you see this whole thing going down, past, present and future?

 

He is looking at divedends to the stock holders NOW - the company be damed.

 

Murphy: I prefer to use facts, rather than speculate.  Yes, the transition was rocky, but so were those when other rails merged (another major transition).  So far the speculation that the company would be drained of its saleable assets is not happening, at least so far (see post by our resident accountancy expert, PJS1). The efficiency has improved.  But time and the financial statements will tell the tale.  CSX's condition in five years will be what really matters. 

I had no great liking for EHH, especially some of his actions at IC.  But he was a seasoned railroader, not some vulture capitalist (such as the current governor of Illinois). His methods were controversial but he got positive results.  Whenever someone comes into a rather static organization from outside and shakes things up, it creates a lot of resentment.  Sometimes folks inside can't see the forest for the tress, especially if there is a lot of deadwood. Changing the narrative to blaming Mantle Ridge Capital now that EHH is gone seems desperate, but time will tell about that as well.

Balt: Your speculation is groundless. I have never owned CSX stock and likely never will. I am simply an observer.  Whenever something or somebody generates as much sustained anger and a paucity of facts as CSX has, it usually means there is a hidden agenda.

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Posted by zugmann on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 3:36 PM

charlie hebdo
The efficiency has improved. But time and the financial statements will tell the tale. CSX's condition in five years will be what really matters.

The problem I have is when other companies blindly copy his methods without knowing how they will end up.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 3:44 PM

zugmann

 

 
charlie hebdo
The efficiency has improved. But time and the financial statements will tell the tale. CSX's condition in five years will be what really matters.

 

The problem I have is when other companies blindly copy his methods without knowing how they will end up.

 

There is some truth in that.  One can only look at his record, all with rather conservative railroads and use that as a guide.

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Posted by PJS1 on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 3:51 PM

Murphy Siding
 My feeling is that Mantle Ridge is a vulture capitalist organization. They brought on EHH to prune everything back to the bone so that the stock prices would climb and they could sell their stock after draining the coffers through dividends and such.  

CSX Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA), which is an important financial metric because it is controlled by current management, increased 14.6 percent between 2016 and 2017.  Over the same period cash dividends paid increased 4.2 percent.  The payout ratio in 2017 was 13.6 percent compared to an industry average of 20.5 percent. 
 
Cash dividends set aside in the first quarter of 2018 increased 16.9 percent over the first quarter of 2017.  Quarter of like period quarter EBITDA increased 13.5 percent. 
 
As of March 31, 2018, Capital Research Global Investors, Vanguard, and Blackrock held a higher percentage of CSX common than Mantle Ridge.  It held just 4.89 percent of the shares outstanding.  Its stake in the Company was $2.7 billion, which is not peanuts, but it is far from being a majority position.  March 31st is the latest reporting date; the information will be updated at the end of June 2018.
 
If Mantle Ridge’s objective is to strip the Company bare, it is not off to a very good start, although presumably it has a lot of room to run.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Wednesday, May 30, 2018 7:05 PM

As long as you can sell your snake oil to others and get their support, you don't have to have majority control.  Mantle Ridge isn't the only player out there to only care about short term gain and not about long term consequences.  I dare say most businesses in the US, and increasingly around the world, operate this way.  It's what the groups that hold the largest amounts of stock want.  The largest and quickest return possible.

Jeff           

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, May 30, 2018 8:02 PM

jeffhergert

As long as you can sell your snake oil to others and get their support, you don't have to have majority control.  Mantle Ridge isn't the only player out there to only care about short term gain and not about long term consequences.  I dare say most businesses in the US, and increasingly around the world, operate this way.  It's what the groups that hold the largest amounts of stock want.  The largest and quickest return possible.

Jeff           

 

As long as we have some form of capitalism, even for infrastructure, that is what you often get, though the evidence so far does not suport the shift to attacking the vulture capitalists since EHH shuffled off this mortal coil (or did he shuffle off to Buffalo?).

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, May 30, 2018 8:19 PM

charlie hebdo
 
jeffhergert

As long as you can sell your snake oil to others and get their support, you don't have to have majority control.  Mantle Ridge isn't the only player out there to only care about short term gain and not about long term consequences.  I dare say most businesses in the US, and increasingly around the world, operate this way.  It's what the groups that hold the largest amounts of stock want.  The largest and quickest return possible.

Jeff      

As long as we have some form of capitalism, even for infrastructure, that is what you often get, though the evidence so far does not suport the shift to attacking the vulture capitalists since EHH shuffled off this mortal coil (or did he shuffle off to Buffalo?).

Didn't EHH close Buffalo?

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, May 31, 2018 6:30 AM

BaltACD
Didn't EHH close Buffalo?

I think Frontier got closed/reduced before EHH stuck his fingers in the pie...

LarryWhistling
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