Time to get serious about self-driving cars - and to hold the incoming administration accountable

The widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles, which many experts say is imminent within the next decade, is a topic that deserves a lot more attention from those of us who want to see railroads — both passenger and freight — grow and thrive. I shall focus this column on that subject, but I wish to first share some thoughts on the election, whose results I find shocking and quite troubling. I have many deep concerns about the incoming administration and the views, statements and temperament of the president-elect, most of which are not directly related to transportation. Suffice it to say that the next four years will require great vigilance on the part of all citizens who care about preserving American ideals of justice, equality, democracy, pluralism and civil liberties and about maintaining the planet’s livability, and a press that truly holds the administration accountable to these principles.

For all his promises to “drain the swamp” and bring in an outsider perspective, most of the president-elect’s appointees for Cabinet and White House staff positions are decidedly insiders. This includes Elaine Chao, who was named today to be Secretary of Transportation. She was Labor Secretary under George W. Bush and is married to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. On the one hand, having experienced people in these positions is generally preferable to having newbies, but on the other, the current crop of Republican insiders has done little to advance transportation policy reforms that are needed — a list that includes ideas advanced by both liberal and conservative individuals and organizations. 

Despite being DOT’s second in command under George H.W. Bush, Chao’s views on railroad policy matters are not entirely clear. They have not been one of her focus areas in the work she has done for the Heritage Foundation and other groups since 2009. I suspect that Chao will either hew towards the preferences of congressional Republicans, who have not been friendly towards investing in rail, particularly on the passenger side, or she will advance the president-elect’s infrastructure proposals, which have not been fully fleshed out and do not seem to stray far from the status quo when it comes to trains. I share my colleague Hayley Enoch’s doubts that Republicans have the appetite for spending the large sums that are needed. It may come down to which coalition of interest groups can exert the most sway over Chao or her very impressionable boss.

A recent talk by former Zipcar CEO Robin Chase at the 2016 Shared Use Mobility Summit in Chicago prompted me to cogitate on the subject of autonomous vehicles. Chase is working to see passenger transportation policies at all levels of government promote a vision of shared fleets of electrically-powered self-driving cars in all metro areas, as opposed to most individuals simply replacing their existing cars with autonomous ones. In the latter scenario, most cars would continue to carry only one or two occupants and would remain idle most of the time — they would simply drive themselves to their home parking space after dropping their owners off for work or to run an errand. 

But in the former scenario, instead of owning a car, most residents of urban and suburban areas would either own a share of a car or would simply pay for a seat in a shared car for each trip or would buy a multi-trip plan. Under this model, cars would be constantly circulating, making pickups and drop-offs, and there would be no need for the vast majority of the parking spaces that currently exists — opening up all kinds of possibilities for the alternate use of that square footage. On-demand, door-to-door transportation would cost about the same as bus fare, envisions Chase, who sees the transition to this idea of the automobile's future as an imperative to avoid exacerbating climate change and the other ills associated with over-dependence on cars.

The prominence of shared fleets of autonomous cars, buses and vans, combined with autonomous trucks (which may roll out sooner), will upend the current commercial, social and political arrangements that govern not just transportation, but so much of modern life. Not only would there be no need for all the space currently devoted to storing and servicing cars and trucks, but most of the roughly 2.6 million Americans currently employed as drivers — truck driver is the most common occupation in 32 of the 50 states — would be out of work. The landscape in which railroads — from Class I freight carriers to urban transit agencies — operate and compete for customers will shift completely.

This all presents tremendous challenges, but also unprecedented and exciting opportunities, for railroad and transit agency managers, planners, policymakers and consultants, as well as for organized labor. I am quite confident that there will still be roles for intermodal trains, intercity passenger trains and rail transit in spite of autonomous trucks and cars. But for the rail industry to adapt will require willingness to break with traditions, diversify business lines and think multi-modally. Difficult discussions and negotiations must begin promptly. But if trains’ proponents play their cards right, there is an opportunity for trains and autonomous vehicles to work in tandem — with the latter mainly covering the first and last miles of a rail journey or shipment — and for many former truck, bus, taxi and Uber/Lyft drivers to find jobs in railroading. 

We all have a role to play in bringing about the kind of future we seek.